COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/14 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/4: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,636,912 (+36,066 | ΔW Change: ↑8.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)
• Deaths: 214,611 (+334 | ΔW Change: ↑21.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

10/5: <M>

• Cases: 7,679,644 (+42,732 | ΔW Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,032 (+421 | ΔW Change: ↑18.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/6: <T>

• Cases: 7,722,746 (+43,102 | ΔW Change: ↓3.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,822 (+790 | ΔW Change: ↓0.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/7: <W>

• Cases: 7,776,224 (+53,478 | ΔW Change: ↑30.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
• Deaths: 216,784 (+962 | ΔW Change: ↑0.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/8: <Þ>

• Cases: 7,833,599 (+57,375 | ΔW Change: ↑21.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 217,738 (+954 | ΔW Change: ↑3.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

10/9: <F>

• Cases: 7,894,478 (+60,879 | ΔW Change: ↑11.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)
• Deaths: 218,648 (+910 | ΔW Change: ↑5.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

10/10: <S>

• Cases: 7,945,505 (+51,027 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 219,282 (+634 | ΔW Change: ↓15.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

[Meclazine for Israel]

382,000 new cases on the planet yesterday.

Ouch with a capital X!

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/AC360/status/1315821401794846720

Good.
Quite a few people need to be reminded as to how serious this virus is.

[It’s so Joever]

At this rate, I do think closures and/or potential lockdowns are needed in a few select states which are starting to see record high hospitalizations and are bearing the worst of this pandemic right now. These states are WI, ND, SD, MT, and UT.
The severity of the measures is up for debate, but what is not up for debate is the severity of the crisis in these states.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/15 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/4: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,636,912 (+36,066 | ΔW Change: ↑8.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)
• Deaths: 214,611 (+334 | ΔW Change: ↑21.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

10/5: <M>

• Cases: 7,679,644 (+42,732 | ΔW Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,032 (+421 | ΔW Change: ↑18.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/6: <T>

• Cases: 7,722,746 (+43,102 | ΔW Change: ↓3.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,822 (+790 | ΔW Change: ↓0.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/7: <W>

• Cases: 7,776,224 (+53,478 | ΔW Change: ↑30.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
• Deaths: 216,784 (+962 | ΔW Change: ↑0.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/8: <Þ>

• Cases: 7,833,599 (+57,375 | ΔW Change: ↑21.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 217,738 (+954 | ΔW Change: ↑3.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

10/9: <F>

• Cases: 7,894,478 (+60,879 | ΔW Change: ↑11.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)
• Deaths: 218,648 (+910 | ΔW Change: ↑5.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

10/10: <S>

• Cases: 7,945,505 (+51,027 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 219,282 (+634 | ΔW Change: ↓15.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/EricBoehlert/status/1317086717359378434

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/16 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/4: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,636,912 (+36,066 | ΔW Change: ↑8.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)
• Deaths: 214,611 (+334 | ΔW Change: ↑21.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

10/5: <M>

• Cases: 7,679,644 (+42,732 | ΔW Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,032 (+421 | ΔW Change: ↑18.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/6: <T>

• Cases: 7,722,746 (+43,102 | ΔW Change: ↓3.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,822 (+790 | ΔW Change: ↓0.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/7: <W>

• Cases: 7,776,224 (+53,478 | ΔW Change: ↑30.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
• Deaths: 216,784 (+962 | ΔW Change: ↑0.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/8: <Þ>

• Cases: 7,833,599 (+57,375 | ΔW Change: ↑21.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 217,738 (+954 | ΔW Change: ↑3.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

10/9: <F>

• Cases: 7,894,478 (+60,879 | ΔW Change: ↑11.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)
• Deaths: 218,648 (+910 | ΔW Change: ↑5.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

10/10: <S>

• Cases: 7,945,505 (+51,027 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 219,282 (+634 | ΔW Change: ↓15.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

[Dr. Arch]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

[Calthrina950]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

[Dr. Arch]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

[Roll Roons]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

Indoor dining has been going on for months here in DC, and aside from the Rose Garden event, there's never been a massive spike in cases.

[Dr. Arch]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

Indoor dining has been going on for months here in DC, and aside from the Rose Garden event, there's never been a massive spike in cases.

Bars, Universities still running in person classes, sports (college football is starting up again soon and people are bound to meet up for their usual grill outs), and a general disregard for safety in Republican heavy areas in the Northeast of the state (saw this with my own eyes in Marinette County) are a big problem in Wisconsin, at least.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

Indoor dining has been going on for months here in DC, and aside from the Rose Garden event, there's never been a massive spike in cases.

Bars, Universities still running in person classes, sports (college football is starting up again soon and people are bound to meet up for their usual grill outs), and a general disregard for safety in Republican heavy areas in the Northeast of the state (saw this with my own eyes in Marinette County) are a big problem in Wisconsin, at least.

Yeah, restaurants are able to regulate their space and ensure proper distance much better than bars and campuses are.

[It’s so Joever]

So...it looks like my predictions of a large Midwest and Rocky Mountain Wave were spot on, unfortunately.
The only thing I did miss was that I thought there would be a large PNW wave which clearly hasn’t happened.
This should be a reminder to Americans that we are still at war, and we can win, but only if everyone makes an effort to support our troops.

[Calthrina950]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

I highly doubt that such a move is going to happen, and the economic damage for restaurants and bars will become even more staggering than what has already been inflicted if it occurs. Imposing renewed lockdowns, I believe, would have disadvantages that would outweigh the advantages we might incur.

[It’s so Joever]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

Bars should be first.
Those are far less likely to be socially distanced and people aren’t exactly going to be following the rules when inebriated.

If rates/hospitalizations continue to climb, restaurants should be next

.

[The Legend]

Here in Michigan we've gone from 719 cases moving 7 day average on 9/20/2020 to 1615 today.        
      
I'm in Oakland County, and in the same period we've gone from 70 to 116.      
      
2.24x increase statewide, but only 65% increase in Oakland County. It looks like the rural counties are getting hardest hit for now.      
      

[Hnv1]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

Indoor dining has been going on for months here in DC, and aside from the Rose Garden event, there's never been a massive spike in cases.

Bars, Universities still running in person classes, sports (college football is starting up again soon and people are bound to meet up for their usual grill outs), and a general disregard for safety in Republican heavy areas in the Northeast of the state (saw this with my own eyes in Marinette County) are a big problem in Wisconsin, at least.

Yeah, restaurants are able to regulate their space and ensure proper distance much better than bars and campuses are.

It’s not the distance, it’s closed spaces with AC.

Unless you pull a federal imposed lockdown Corona will keep hitting different parts badly

[Meclazine for Israel]

413,000 new cases reported yesterday.

This thing has gone Full Beet.

Apologies to Beet for underestimating his now clearly accurate early-stage pandemic hyperbolae.

I will never doubt your pre-pandemic estimates and over-exaggerated mathematical projections again.

[emailking]

413,000 new cases reported yesterday.

This thing has gone Full Beet.

Apologies to Beet for underestimating his now clearly accurate early-stage pandemic hyperbolae.

I will never doubt your pre-pandemic estimates and over-exaggerated mathematical projections again.

He said the death rate was approaching 100% at one point.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=355597.msg7146506#msg7146506

He was right in some ways but not others.

[Beet]

Here is some more bad news.

WHO study shows remdesivir has "little or no effect" in preventing COVID-19 deaths.

The antiviral drug remdesivir, considered one of the most promising COVID-19 treatments, turns out to do little to prevent deaths from the disease, according to a World Health Organization-backed study.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-study-shows-remdesivir-has-little-or-no-effect-in-preventing-covid-19-deaths/

It is all on a vaccine or other experimental therapeutics now.

[Beet]

413,000 new cases reported yesterday.

This thing has gone Full Beet.

Apologies to Beet for underestimating his now clearly accurate early-stage pandemic hyperbolae.

I will never doubt your pre-pandemic estimates and over-exaggerated mathematical projections again.

He said the death rate was approaching 100% at one point.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=355597.msg7146506#msg7146506

He was right in some ways but not others.

That was the number then very early on when we had no idea what this was. A number of people had died, but virtually no one had recovered. Fortunately as we got a bigger picture the IFR turned out to be much lower.

We were fortune with this one where the IFR is under 1% and it primarily affects the elderly. There are some zoonotic viruses with IFR of over 20%. In those cases, I would expect much greater panic and a stronger social reaction. At a high enough IFR, it won't actually kill that many people because society will be unified to suppress the epidemic entirely. At a low enough IFR, it becomes just the flu, or similar to the 2009 swine flu outbreak. However, between those two extremes there is an IFR that is high enough to kill many, but not high enough to convince people they need to focus on killing the pandemic in a single handed manner. This middle IFR will actually result in the most deaths. COVID-19 unfortunately it seems has found the "sweet spot." If there is no vaccine or treatment we could see this going on for several years.

[Silent Hunter]

The evidence from the UK is that the primary outbreaks are in care homes, workplaces and schools.

[Sir Mohamed]

Here in Michigan we've gone from 719 cases moving 7 day average on 9/20/2020 to 1615 today.        
      
I'm in Oakland County, and in the same period we've gone from 70 to 116.      
      
2.24x increase statewide, but only 65% increase in Oakland County. It looks like the rural counties are getting hardest hit for now.      
      

Good.
These counties have the most virus-truthers. This is a necessary educational moment.

Their cult leader didn't learn from his own infection either. He instead called it a "gift from god". I wouldn't be surprised if some end up being proud of suffering from COVID-19, being just as their leader. On the other hand, too much innocent people would still be affected by the disease or other consequences it brings for the region.