COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[DINGO Joe]

No, case numbers don't matter anymore, but Hospital numbers do, and Delta seems to be still kicking around especially among white people so until that's under control there are quite a few places that should be taking extra precautions. 

[emailking]

I think they matter. At least enough to keep track of them.

[Hammy]

No, case numbers don't matter anymore, but Hospital numbers do, and Delta seems to be still kicking around especially among white people so until that's under control there are quite a few places that should be taking extra precautions. 

Case numbers absolutely matter because that still gives an idea of how severe the virus is. Do you really want deranged media headlines of '100% reported cases are severe, everyone hospitalized'? Because that's what this would open up.

[Meclazine for Israel]

This one's for Meclazine:
https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1476371792537300997

Yeah, it's crazy here at the moment.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-30/wa-records-one-new-local-covid-case-as-backpacker-tests-positive/100731796

1 new local case who tested positive and 2M people all wearing masks. When I went to the shops today, 100% of people wearing masks.

It's interesting to read people on here living in 400,000 new cases per day.

It makes our isolation from the virus feel as though we will eventually get swamped.

Hopefully by that stage Omicron would have been taken over by a less deadly strain and our vaccination rates are above 95%.

Life for the unvaccinated in WA is about to become hell.

They won't be able to get a job. They won't be able to travel. Banned from life essentially.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1476203822980739072

What's the proverb about reaping what you sow?

[DINGO Joe]

I think they matter. At least enough to keep track of them.

Of course.  And hopefully they scare some people into getting shots and boosters. 

[compucomp]

Hospitalizations in NJ are at 3604 today (source) and quickly rising. The peak last winter was 3800. Omicron may be less severe than Delta but now we are seeing that since it is ridiculously contagious, the sheer number of infected people can still cause a large number of hospitalizations. This forum should have treated this possibility more seriously instead of dismissing Omicron as the common cold.

[soundchaser]

Hospitalizations in NJ are at 3604 today (source) and quickly rising. The peak last winter was 3800. Omicron may be less severe than Delta but now we are seeing that since it is ridiculously contagious, the sheer number of infected people can still cause a large number of hospitalizations. This forum should have treated this possibility more seriously instead of dismissing Omicron as the common cold.

So what, then, should “this forum” do about the unvaccinated people now clogging the hospitals? For most of us, Omicron *is* the common cold, if even that. It’s not reasonable to ask us to grind our lives to a halt at this point if the crisis isn’t going to be managed from the top.

[Roll Roons]

Also, how many people are being hospitalized for COVID as opposed to going to the hospital for something else and happening to test positive?

[compucomp]

Hospitalizations in NJ are at 3604 today (source) and quickly rising. The peak last winter was 3800. Omicron may be less severe than Delta but now we are seeing that since it is ridiculously contagious, the sheer number of infected people can still cause a large number of hospitalizations. This forum should have treated this possibility more seriously instead of dismissing Omicron as the common cold.

So what, then, should “this forum” do about the unvaccinated people now clogging the hospitals? For most of us, Omicron *is* the common cold, if even that. It’s not reasonable to ask us to grind our lives to a halt at this point if the crisis isn’t going to be managed from the top.

This forum could avoid being rabidly anti-containment, screaming and pushing back harshly against any phantom or ghost that vaguely resembles a COVID restriction. I wouldn't be surprised if some of you even called or wrote your elected officials demanding that no restrictions be enacted come hell or high water. I suspect that this has moved the needle from the perspective of Democratic decision makers; they think that not only have they lost all Republican-leaners, but they are also losing a key constituency of supporters, young politically engaged liberals, over the COVID measures. Now, if hospitals overflow and people die needlessly in the Omicron wave, Democrats and Joe Biden will be blamed for not doing enough, and young liberals like the ones on this forum could very well have been the tipping point that caused them to make the wrong decision.

It's really too bad the opposing force, elderly people who fear for their lives, are busy hiding in their homes and not nearly as likely to yell online, get on CNN, or badger their elected officials.

Also, how many people are being hospitalized for COVID as opposed to going to the hospital for something else and happening to test positive?

I'm using the same data source for both numbers, the official NJ COVID page, so I'm comparing apples to apples.

[Horus]

Hospitalizations in NJ are at 3604 today (source) and quickly rising. The peak last winter was 3800. Omicron may be less severe than Delta but now we are seeing that since it is ridiculously contagious, the sheer number of infected people can still cause a large number of hospitalizations. This forum should have treated this possibility more seriously instead of dismissing Omicron as the common cold.

So what, then, should “this forum” do about the unvaccinated people now clogging the hospitals? For most of us, Omicron *is* the common cold, if even that. It’s not reasonable to ask us to grind our lives to a halt at this point if the crisis isn’t going to be managed from the top.

This forum could avoid being rabidly anti-containment, screaming and pushing back harshly against any phantom or ghost that vaguely resembles a COVID restriction. I wouldn't be surprised if some of you even called or wrote your elected officials demanding that no restrictions be enacted come hell or high water. I suspect that this has moved the needle from the perspective of Democratic decision makers; they think that not only have they lost all Republican-leaners, but they are also losing a key constituency of supporters, young politically engaged liberals, over the COVID measures. Now, if hospitals overflow and people die needlessly in the Omicron wave, Democrats and Joe Biden will be blamed for not doing enough, and young liberals like the ones on this forum could very well have been the tipping point that caused them to make the wrong decision.

It's really too bad the opposing force, elderly people who fear for their lives, are busy hiding in their homes and not nearly as likely to yell online, get on CNN, or badger their elected officials.

Also, how many people are being hospitalized for COVID as opposed to going to the hospital for something else and happening to test positive?

I'm using the same data source for both numbers, the official NJ COVID page, so I'm comparing apples to apples.

Omicron cannot be contained. It is by far the most transmissible strain yet.

Can't speak for any other elderly people but both of my parents are over 65, boosted, and living and traveling normally. We can't put society on hold for a bunch of elderly anti vaxxers. If fully vaccinated old people are hiding in their homes, they're being neurotic and not following the facts.

[Calthrina950]

Atlas, like the broader population, has solidified into three hard camps at this point with regards to the pandemic. We have one camp that is ready to move on from the virus, that firmly opposes restrictions, and that wishes for society to return to normalcy. We have another camp that continues to support some restrictions but is becoming more disenchanted as time goes on. And we have a third camp that continues to ardently support most (or all) restrictions and believes that we cannot move on from the virus at this juncture. The first and the third camps hardly see eye to eye.

[soundchaser]

Omicron is far too transmissible for most measures short of forcing people into their homes to work to contain it. The federal government obviously can’t do that. Even asking people to stay home from work without compensation is a burden. The country’s economy is simply not set up to contain a virus like this — I’m not saying it’s right, but it’s the reality of the situation.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It has become increasingly apparent that Omicron is going to sort all of this out for us within the next few weeks.

Literally almost everyone is going to get the virus, except some people who were already recently infected.  Literally almost no one who is vaccinated is going to get seriously ill.

This is going to be necessarily disruptive regardless of restrictions or vaccinations because people are going to get somewhat sick and have to miss work for a few days.

But after a few weeks, we are going to realize that everyone recovered fine and can go back to normal.

[Green Line]

It has become increasingly apparent that Omicron is going to sort all of this out for us within the next few weeks.

Literally almost everyone is going to get the virus, except some people who were already recently infected.  Literally almost no one who is vaccinated is going to get seriously ill.

This is going to be necessarily disruptive regardless of restrictions or vaccinations because people are going to get somewhat sick and have to miss work for a few days.

But after a few weeks, we are going to realize that everyone recovered fine and can go back to normal.

Liberals don't want to get Covid and don't want to be sick, period.  That isn't going to change regardless of how many times they're infected, we'll still have to pretend like we're avoiding it.  Its going to change nothing in big US cities.  I know two people this week who just had Covid and came out of quarantine and are now unwilling to go to NYE events because "its bad out there".

Nothing has fundamentally changed.  Cases will peak next month, drop substantially and everybody will be happy.  Then they'll go back up again and everyone will be sad and we'll do it all over again.  The end result will be an ever expanding health-security state with no measurable improvement in outcome.

[Hammy]

Hospitalizations in NJ are at 3604 today (source) and quickly rising. The peak last winter was 3800. Omicron may be less severe than Delta but now we are seeing that since it is ridiculously contagious, the sheer number of infected people can still cause a large number of hospitalizations. This forum should have treated this possibility more seriously instead of dismissing Omicron as the common cold.

So what, then, should “this forum” do about the unvaccinated people now clogging the hospitals? For most of us, Omicron *is* the common cold, if even that. It’s not reasonable to ask us to grind our lives to a halt at this point if the crisis isn’t going to be managed from the top.

This forum could avoid being rabidly anti-containment, screaming and pushing back harshly against any phantom or ghost that vaguely resembles a COVID restriction. I wouldn't be surprised if some of you even called or wrote your elected officials demanding that no restrictions be enacted come hell or high water. I suspect that this has moved the needle from the perspective of Democratic decision makers; they think that not only have they lost all Republican-leaners, but they are also losing a key constituency of supporters, young politically engaged liberals, over the COVID measures. Now, if hospitals overflow and people die needlessly in the Omicron wave, Democrats and Joe Biden will be blamed for not doing enough, and young liberals like the ones on this forum could very well have been the tipping point that caused them to make the wrong decision.

It's really too bad the opposing force, elderly people who fear for their lives, are busy hiding in their homes and not nearly as likely to yell online, get on CNN, or badger their elected officials.

Also, how many people are being hospitalized for COVID as opposed to going to the hospital for something else and happening to test positive?

I'm using the same data source for both numbers, the official NJ COVID page, so I'm comparing apples to apples.

One thing to keep in mind when looking at hospitalizations, it's more likely than not that Delta is still out there in large numbers, especially if it's still making up 40% of cases.

[Calthrina950]

It has become increasingly apparent that Omicron is going to sort all of this out for us within the next few weeks.

Literally almost everyone is going to get the virus, except some people who were already recently infected.  Literally almost no one who is vaccinated is going to get seriously ill.

This is going to be necessarily disruptive regardless of restrictions or vaccinations because people are going to get somewhat sick and have to miss work for a few days.

But after a few weeks, we are going to realize that everyone recovered fine and can go back to normal.

Liberals don't want to get Covid and don't want to be sick, period.  That isn't going to change regardless of how many times they're infected, we'll still have to pretend like we're avoiding it.  Its going to change nothing in big US cities.  I know two people this week who just had Covid and came out of quarantine and are now unwilling to go to NYE events because "its bad out there".

Nothing has fundamentally changed.  Cases will peak next month, drop substantially and everybody will be happy.  Then they'll go back up again and everyone will be sad and we'll do it all over again.  The end result will be an ever expanding health-security state with no measurable improvement in outcome.

I've seen no shortage of articles about liberals, left-leaning people, or Democrats who do everything they can to avoid the coronavirus. They get vaccinated, they get boosted, they wear masks in public, they adhere to social distancing guidelines, they sanitize, and they get tested frequently. And yet, in spite of all their efforts, they still contract the virus and are upset that they have. They wonder why they were thus afflicted, despite doing everything possible to avoid it. And even after they recover, they double down on supporting restrictions.

[soundchaser]

I won’t say I’m anti-restriction entirely (I’m still wearing my mask to work and to the store and such), but if this variant is as transmissible as it appears, I’m not sure that masking in public is as beneficial as it once was. Certainly masking in private seems like a fool’s errand. And I’m very tired of the patronizing rhetoric that suggests there’s a moral dimension to contracting the disease. It may be time to accept that we’re all going to get the virus in some form or another and just protect ourselves from severe outcomes with vaccines.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It has become increasingly apparent that Omicron is going to sort all of this out for us within the next few weeks.

Literally almost everyone is going to get the virus, except some people who were already recently infected.  Literally almost no one who is vaccinated is going to get seriously ill.

This is going to be necessarily disruptive regardless of restrictions or vaccinations because people are going to get somewhat sick and have to miss work for a few days.

But after a few weeks, we are going to realize that everyone recovered fine and can go back to normal.

Liberals don't want to get Covid and don't want to be sick, period. That isn't going to change regardless of how many times they're infected, we'll still have to pretend like we're avoiding it.  Its going to change nothing in big US cities.  I know two people this week who just had Covid and came out of quarantine and are now unwilling to go to NYE events because "its bad out there".

Nothing has fundamentally changed.  Cases will peak next month, drop substantially and everybody will be happy.  Then they'll go back up again and everyone will be sad and we'll do it all over again.  The end result will be an ever expanding health-security state with no measurable improvement in outcome.

I've seen no shortage of articles about liberals, left-leaning people, or Democrats who do everything they can to avoid the coronavirus. They get vaccinated, they get boosted, they wear masks in public, they adhere to social distancing guidelines, they sanitize, and they get tested frequently. And yet, in spite of all their efforts, they still contract the virus and are upset that they have. They wonder why they were thus afflicted, despite doing everything possible to avoid it. And even after they recover, they double down on supporting restrictions.

Well, there's not a lot of articles about liberals who follow all the guidelines and don't get COVID.

I still don't have COVID, after two years.  I follow all the guidelines, but otherwise live my life freely and happily.  I wear a mask in public places, got fully vaccinated, wash my hands like an adult, and try to avoid situations where I'm going to have a lot of unmasked people spewing particles all over me.

Frankly it's not that difficult.  I haven't been to a big concert or an indoor sporting event since COVID started but other than that I can't really think of anything I'd like to do that I'm not doing other than international travel.  And this has been true for at least the last year.

This whole conversation is just so absurd to me.  No, there aren't going to be lockdowns, and I don't support them.  If you're fully vaccinated, it's extremely unlikely that COVID will do serious harm to you, and if you're wearing a mask and washing your hands and avoiding super-spreader events, then you are doing your part to slow the spread and protect yourself from it as much as reasonably possible.  If you aren't vaccinated and aren't following the guidelines, and you get COVID, then you f---ing deserve it, and if you suffer and die then at this point, that was your choice and I have very limited sympathy -- certainly not enough sympathy to want to go out of my way to protect you.  Just protect yourself.

[soundchaser]

Frankly it's not that difficult.  I haven't been to a big concert or an indoor sporting event since COVID started but other than that I can't really think of anything I'd like to do that I'm not doing other than international travel.

Frankly, this is bullsh**t, and exactly the kind of rhetoric I was talking about in my last post. I haven’t caught COVID yet either, but “just don’t catch the virus, checkmate people who socialize” helps literally no one except you.

EDIT: And your last paragraph is actively repugnant. (On a purely scientific level, I can’t believe you’re doubling down on the “wash your hands” rhetoric as if we’re still in March 2020.)

[Donerail]

It's really too bad the opposing force, elderly people who fear for their lives, are busy hiding in their homes and not nearly as likely to yell online, get on CNN, or badger their elected officials.

This is certainly a novel perspective on the relative political influence of different generations. Politicians are notorious for neglecting the concerns of elderly people who vote every cycle — a group that never badgers elected officials — in order to curry favor with young people, who are engaged and reliable voters.

[It’s so Joever]

It has become increasingly apparent that Omicron is going to sort all of this out for us within the next few weeks.

Literally almost everyone is going to get the virus, except some people who were already recently infected.  Literally almost no one who is vaccinated is going to get seriously ill.

This is going to be necessarily disruptive regardless of restrictions or vaccinations because people are going to get somewhat sick and have to miss work for a few days.

But after a few weeks, we are going to realize that everyone recovered fine and can go back to normal.

Liberals don't want to get Covid and don't want to be sick, period. That isn't going to change regardless of how many times they're infected, we'll still have to pretend like we're avoiding it.  Its going to change nothing in big US cities.  I know two people this week who just had Covid and came out of quarantine and are now unwilling to go to NYE events because "its bad out there".

Nothing has fundamentally changed.  Cases will peak next month, drop substantially and everybody will be happy.  Then they'll go back up again and everyone will be sad and we'll do it all over again.  The end result will be an ever expanding health-security state with no measurable improvement in outcome.

I've seen no shortage of articles about liberals, left-leaning people, or Democrats who do everything they can to avoid the coronavirus. They get vaccinated, they get boosted, they wear masks in public, they adhere to social distancing guidelines, they sanitize, and they get tested frequently. And yet, in spite of all their efforts, they still contract the virus and are upset that they have. They wonder why they were thus afflicted, despite doing everything possible to avoid it. And even after they recover, they double down on supporting restrictions.

Well, there's not a lot of articles about liberals who follow all the guidelines and don't get COVID.

I still don't have COVID, after two years.  I follow all the guidelines, but otherwise live my life freely and happily.  I wear a mask in public places, got fully vaccinated, wash my hands like an adult, and try to avoid situations where I'm going to have a lot of unmasked people spewing particles all over me.

Frankly it's not that difficult.  I haven't been to a big concert or an indoor sporting event since COVID started but other than that I can't really think of anything I'd like to do that I'm not doing other than international travel.  And this has been true for at least the last year.

This whole conversation is just so absurd to me.  No, there aren't going to be lockdowns, and I don't support them.  If you're fully vaccinated, it's extremely unlikely that COVID will do serious harm to you, and if you're wearing a mask and washing your hands and avoiding super-spreader events, then you are doing your part to slow the spread and protect yourself from it as much as reasonably possible.  If you aren't vaccinated and aren't following the guidelines, and you get COVID, then you f---ing deserve it, and if you suffer and die then at this point, that was your choice and I have very limited sympathy -- certainly not enough sympathy to want to go out of my way to protect you.  Just protect yourself.

Asking Atlas posters to be reasonable adults is too much.

[Frodo]

2022 could mark the beginning of the end for COVID as a societal disruptor, which fits the historical pattern quite nicely.  The Spanish Infuenza pandemic also took about two to three years to burn itself out between 1918 and 1920 before it became endemic as your typical seasonal flu:

Omicron May Be the 'Harbinger of the End' of COVID's Epidemic Phase, Study Says

[soundchaser]

Look, I recognize that the diseases are very, VERY different, but every HIV/AIDS researcher worth a salt has made it clear that this kind of “just be an adult” rhetoric simply doesn’t work, and it often has the opposite of its intended effect. Social science is a science, too — and those here who claim to be following the science should take a lesson from those who have managed a pandemic before.

[It’s so Joever]

Look, I recognize that the diseases are very, VERY different, but every HIV/AIDS researcher worth a salt has made it clear that this kind of “just be an adult” rhetoric simply doesn’t work, and it often has the opposite of its intended effect. Social science is a science, too — and those here who claim to be following the science should take a lesson from those who have managed a pandemic before.

You’re probably right, and if I were someone with influence instead of some random guy on an obscure forum, I would definitely have different messaging. But I’m not in that position, so why should I bother coddling the morons making things worse?