COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[FrancoAgo]

So what, then, should “this forum” do about the unvaccinated people now clogging the hospitals? For most of us, Omicron *is* the common cold, if even that. It’s not reasonable to ask us to grind our lives to a halt at this point if the crisis isn’t going to be managed from the top.

bull sh**t, also the omicron is more lethal of the flu

[Horus]

So what, then, should “this forum” do about the unvaccinated people now clogging the hospitals? For most of us, Omicron *is* the common cold, if even that. It’s not reasonable to ask us to grind our lives to a halt at this point if the crisis isn’t going to be managed from the top.

bull sh**t, also the omicron is more lethal of the flu

Not for the vaccinated.

[FrancoAgo]

So what, then, should “this forum” do about the unvaccinated people now clogging the hospitals? For most of us, Omicron *is* the common cold, if even that. It’s not reasonable to ask us to grind our lives to a halt at this point if the crisis isn’t going to be managed from the top.

bull sh**t, also the omicron is more lethal of the flu

Not for the vaccinated.

you can compare unvaccinated for the cold with unvaccined for covid-19 not unvaccinated for the cold with vaccinated for the covid-19.
in other i never known of people die for the cold, but i know vaccinated people die for the covid-19, i know this is not scientific

[soundchaser]

People die of the cold and the flu (although I will admit — not in as great a number as unvaccinated die of COVID); we just don’t report on it in the same way.

[It’s so Joever]

We can’t compare omicron to the flu in a positive or negative way simply because it’s too early for substantial death data. Just keep watching the death rates in South Africa and the UK to start, that will give us a good general idea of how it is relative to other strains.

[Lief 🗽]

Pretty stunning numbers in NYC. The hospitalization rate for vaccinateds actually decreased last week, despite the huge overall surge.
https://twitter.com/cooperlund/status/1476612381153411077?s=21

[Horus]

We can’t compare omicron to the flu in a positive or negative way simply because it’s too early for substantial death data. Just keep watching the death rates in South Africa and the UK to start, that will give us a good general idea of how it is relative to other strains.

Death rates in SA are already declining.

[It’s so Joever]

We can’t compare omicron to the flu in a positive or negative way simply because it’s too early for substantial death data. Just keep watching the death rates in South Africa and the UK to start, that will give us a good general idea of how it is relative to other strains.

Death rates in SA are already declining.

I know that there have been several days of deaths declining over a 7 day period followed by a slight increase today (which could be a data outlier) I want to wait a few more days to establish this overall decline as a trend as opposed to an anomaly.

[emailking]

566K cases today.

How quaint were the days of April '20 with pages and pages of analysis and debate about whether we had peaked, at 35K.

[Tintrlvr]

Pretty stunning numbers in NYC. The hospitalization rate for vaccinateds actually decreased last week, despite the huge overall surge.
https://twitter.com/cooperlund/status/1476612381153411077?s=21

A big part of that is the replacement of Delta with Omicron. Three or four weeks ago, most new cases in NYC were still Delta, which was much more likely to cause hospitalization generally. NYC isn't of course Upper New England or the rural Midwest, where cases are still falling because the Delta wave is fading while Omicron hasn't quite hit with full force yet. But it looks that way from the hospitalization statistics because Omicron is so much less severe.

As an aside, there's a very obvious pattern right now of surges in areas that are more interconnected, both within the country and internationally - most striking not in the cities, which are perhaps more obvious but could be attributed to density, but in the ski counties, which are behaving more like the big cities and less like surrounding rural areas. Omicron will eventually get widespread everywhere, of course, but some rural, very disconnected parts of the country might not see too many cases until late in January.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Just received my Moderna booster this afternoon; gotta keep the members of my family and community who are immunocompromised safe.  

[compucomp]

It's really too bad the opposing force, elderly people who fear for their lives, are busy hiding in their homes and not nearly as likely to yell online, get on CNN, or badger their elected officials.

This is certainly a novel perspective on the relative political influence of different generations. Politicians are notorious for neglecting the concerns of elderly people who vote every cycle — a group that never badgers elected officials — in order to curry favor with young people, who are engaged and reliable voters.

Yes, you are correct in general on young people vs old people in terms of political participation. However this forum is full of politically engaged young liberals. I would assume that many people on this forum donate their time and money to the Democratic party and write/call their elected officials. If they are now loudly denouncing COVID restrictions, and this is representative of the "young liberal" activist group, then Democratic decision makers could think that they're losing a key group of support and move in the direction of no restrictions.

Joe Biden made allusions to this when he said that he knew that restrictions and mandates are unpopular. This is despite ample polling showing mask mandates and vaccine mandates have the support of a majority of Americans, sometimes even 60-70%. I think what is happening is that the loud opposition consists of Republicans and younger Democrats, making decision makers think that they don't have majority support for restrictions, when there is a substantial population of elderly people who have basically disappeared from society because they're staying home as much as possible and their support for the mandates is not registering in the public eye.

[Green Line]

Just received my Moderna booster this afternoon; gotta keep the members of my family and community who are immunocompromised safe.  

The booster does nothing for community spread so if that was your reason you probably wasted your time.  Just say you got it for yourself, its okay.

[emailking]

Sure it does. You are likely to have less viral load at all stages of infection than you would if you weren't boosted. So you have less chance of infecting someone else.

[Green Line]

Sure it does. You are likely to have less viral load at all stages of infection than you would if you weren't boosted. So you have less chance of infecting someone else.

That talking point is extremely old at this point.  We’ve been hearing it since July - common sense says things have changed.  But obviously the CDC wont be publishing studies on at anytime soon.

[emailking]

That talking point is extremely old at this point.  We’ve been hearing it since July - common sense says things have changed.  But obviously the CDC wont be publishing studies on at anytime soon.

Man I was trying to be polite. Boosted means less likely to infect. The reason is correct even if you no longer believe it. Most Americans aren't boosted by the way.

[Green Line]

That talking point is extremely old at this point.  We’ve been hearing it since July - common sense says things have changed.  But obviously the CDC wont be publishing studies on at anytime soon.

Man I wan trying to be polite. Boosted means less likely to infect. The reason is correct even if you no longer believe it. Most Americans aren't boosted by the way.

“Less likely” is doing a lot of work there.

[emailking]

Ahh, so you believe it's correct but it's a matter of the degree for you. If you've got some data I'm eager to see it. Otherwise, no iBizzBee didn't waste his time getting boosted.

[Hammy]

Just received my Moderna booster this afternoon; gotta keep the members of my family and community who are immunocompromised safe.  

The booster does nothing for community spread so if that was your reason you probably wasted your time.  Just say you got it for yourself, its okay.

More symptoms and severity translates into higher viral load, so decreasing symptoms of somebody infected will in fact decrease how effectively they can spread it (and how bad it could be for that person, especially those with weaker immune systems), even if it doesn't completely stop it.

[Green Line]

Just received my Moderna booster this afternoon; gotta keep the members of my family and community who are immunocompromised safe.  

The booster does nothing for community spread so if that was your reason you probably wasted your time.  Just say you got it for yourself, its okay.

More symptoms and severity translates into higher viral load, so decreasing symptoms of somebody infected will in fact decrease how effectively they can spread it (and how bad it could be for that person, especially those with weaker immune systems), even if it doesn't completely stop it.

It might make you slighly less likely to spread the virus.  It clearly is not significant though.  Anybody who knows somebody else at this point could attest that its spreading easily to the fully vaccinated and boosted.  I'm mostly tired of the virtue signalling, "Im doing this to protect others" when the benefit is so obviously negligable at this point.  Yes, you're slightly, ever so, reducing your chance of getting and spreading it. Its not noteworthy anymore and we need to accept that.  Do it for your own sake and stop putting the onus on others to "protect people" when its doing nothing of the sort.

[Green Line]

Ahh, so you believe it's correct but it's a matter of the degree for you. If you've got some data I'm eager to see it. Otherwise, no iBizzBee didn't waste his time getting boosted.

Yes?  The degree matters, obviously.  I'm less likely to have a heart attack because I take fish oil pills, but I wouldn't brag about it to others.  If he literally is getting the vaccine to stop his grandma/mom from getting Covid, he's wasting his time and deluding himself.  Omicrom is laughing at that.

[emailking]

Yes?  The degree matters, obviously.  I'm less likely to have a heart attack because I take fish oil pills, but I wouldn't brag about it to others.  If he literally is getting the vaccine to stop his grandma/mom from getting Covid, he's wasting his time and deluding himself.  Omicrom is laughing at that.

Yeah like I said, if you've got some data or an article of something that the booster has a negligible effect on community spread I'd like to take a look. It seems like you're just saying transmission is high so it must be ineffective at slowing the spread, and that doesn't follow at all.

[Green Line]

Yes?  The degree matters, obviously.  I'm less likely to have a heart attack because I take fish oil pills, but I wouldn't brag about it to others.  If he literally is getting the vaccine to stop his grandma/mom from getting Covid, he's wasting his time and deluding himself.  Omicrom is laughing at that.

Yeah like I said, if you've got some data or an article of something that the booster has a negligible effect on community spread I'd like to take a look. It seems like you're just saying transmission is high so it must be ineffective at slowing the spread, and that doesn't follow at all.

Transmission is nearly double what it was last year with 80% of adults being partially vaccinated and 70% fully, compared to none last year.  If you can't understand that the sterilization factor of the current vaccine is overstated, you're just lying to yourself.  Go for it, whatever makes you feel better.

[emailking]

That's because this strain is more transmissible. How do you know it wouldn't be 150% more (instead of 100%, doubled) without boosters? That's where it seems you're just waving your hands on this.

[Green Line]

That's because this strain is more transmissible. How do you know it wouldn't be 150% more (instead of 100%, doubled) without boosters? That's where it seems you're just waving your hands on this.

150% vs 100%, in your hypothetical, isn't even significant.  Thats the point.  The vaccine isn't making a significant impact on transmission at all.  To pretend it is at this point is burying your head in the sand.  The vaccine is to protect yourself and anything else is farcical after Omicron.

I don't know what your issue is with the quote button, btw.  Start using it.