COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[It’s so Joever]

Can we just acknowledge this new guidance was made to keep things running and not because it will keep us just as “safe” from Covid? I am for the changes because of the nature of omicron, but as Compucomp is asking, be honest.

The 10 day isolation guideline was put into place in Summer 2020, which was pre-vax and pre-omicron. It’s possible for the CDC to update its guidance given new circumstances and it isn’t inherently corrupt just because business leaders were hoping for the change.

Knee-jerk reactions from the left are reminiscent of similar doubt-sowing that has been done on the right. I’ll continue to refer to the CDC’s guidance in my own decision-making rather than a collection of internet forum users or hysterical tweeters.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/28/dr-fauci-cdcs-reduced-isolation-time-will-get-people-back-to-jobs.html
WRONG

[It’s so Joever]

Zero COVID hasn't been plausible since "two weeks to slow the spread" but there's been plenty of strategic incoherence regarding why we are doing much of what we have been doing since then, so many people still believe that is our collective goal.

Nobody on here is arguing for it, maybe a few in the real world, but that definitely has not been the goal since…probably last summer.

[Donerail]

Zero COVID hasn't been plausible since "two weeks to slow the spread" but there's been plenty of strategic incoherence regarding why we are doing much of what we have been doing since then, so many people still believe that is our collective goal.

Nobody on here is arguing for it, maybe a few in the real world, but that definitely has not been the goal since…probably last summer.

Then what is the goal?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Zero COVID hasn't been plausible since "two weeks to slow the spread" but there's been plenty of strategic incoherence regarding why we are doing much of what we have been doing since then, so many people still believe that is our collective goal.

Nobody on here is arguing for it, maybe a few in the real world, but that definitely has not been the goal since…probably last summer.

Then what is the goal?

The goal is to reach a way of living with the virus at the lowest overall cost to society; it's here and it's not going away.  The direct harm that the virus inflicts is a very large part of that cost and has multiple components: deaths and long-term medical harm to many of those who contract it, cost of medical care even for those who survive, secondary effects on families, strains on the medical system, etc.  But it also has to be recognized that this isn't the only part of the social cost, and "cost" is not only monetary.  We also have to consider the harm to mental health, the economy, and social cohesion induced by various mitigations.  They don't all have the same cost; for example, IMO lockdowns have a much higher societal cost than masking mandates, which in turn have a higher cost then vaccine mandates.

The ideal end state would be to find the best possible balance of these factors to minimize the social cost, or in other words to maximize social well being.  In engineering terms this would be an optimization problem, but in this case it's made more complex because understanding of all the factors isn't completely known.  Not only that, the situation is constantly changing and we're having to react to it in real time.

Does this mean that we have to accept a certain amount of illness and death?  Yes, and to those who might be reaching for their keyboard to slam me for heartlessness, I will say that this always has been and always will be an inherent element of human society.  Life is not completely safe and there are always risks; the trick is to manage the risks (not only individual but collective as well) to get the best outcome.  It's impossible to keep everyone completely safe and happy, so we just have to do the best we can to maximize safety and happiness.

A few posts back, I said that my vision of the eventual end game with COVID would be to manage it much as we do flu now.  There are thousands of deaths from flu every year, and we live with them.  I'm not callous about these deaths, and I wish people would take more care against the flu (get the damn shot every year!) and other diseases.  But the cost of eradicating flu, if it was even possible (which I doubt for reasons mentioned in the earlier post) would come at an unacceptable cost to society.  We've achieved a workable balance with flu; we need to get to the same end state with COVID.  Note that "same end state" here means achieving a stable situation with an acceptable social cost; it doesn't necessarily mean having exactly the same mitigation measures for both diseases.

To take a non-medical example of this kind of risk management and optimization, consider traffic deaths.  Tens of thousands of people are killed on the roads each year in the U.S. and many more are seriously injured.  We could greatly reduce the number of deaths and injuries if we lowered the national speed limit to 20 mph and installed speed governors in all cars to enforce it.  (Again, before you reach for the keyboard, I am NOT suggesting lowering the speed limit to 20!  That would be a terrible idea!)  

But this would come at an enormous societal and economic cost, so we don't do it.  This doesn't mean that society is callous about those deaths.  We already have measures in place to try and mitigate them: required auto safety features, driver's license requirements, speed limits, laws against drunk and reckless driving, etc.  These are part of the balance that society has reached in this area.  The level of traffic deaths we have now is "acceptable" -- not necessarily in moral or ethical terms, but in societal ones.

[It’s so Joever]

Zero COVID hasn't been plausible since "two weeks to slow the spread" but there's been plenty of strategic incoherence regarding why we are doing much of what we have been doing since then, so many people still believe that is our collective goal.

Nobody on here is arguing for it, maybe a few in the real world, but that definitely has not been the goal since…probably last summer.

Then what is the goal?

Keep hospitals running and not overwhelmed? Lmao

[Crumpets]

Zero COVID hasn't been plausible since "two weeks to slow the spread" but there's been plenty of strategic incoherence regarding why we are doing much of what we have been doing since then, so many people still believe that is our collective goal.

Nobody on here is arguing for it, maybe a few in the real world, but that definitely has not been the goal since…probably last summer.

Then what is the goal?

Keep hospitals running and not overwhelmed? Lmao

Yeah, this has always been my standard for success. People need to be able to go to the hospital in case of an emergency and not have to deal with ICUs at 150% capacity and overworked and exhausted doctors and nurses. Either we somehow dramatically increase the number of hospitals and medical workers (seems pretty unlikely within a matter of years) or we find ways to improve COVID treatment and prevention until we reach at least somewhat close to pre-pandemic levels of hospital operations.

[Donerail]

Zero COVID hasn't been plausible since "two weeks to slow the spread" but there's been plenty of strategic incoherence regarding why we are doing much of what we have been doing since then, so many people still believe that is our collective goal.

Nobody on here is arguing for it, maybe a few in the real world, but that definitely has not been the goal since…probably last summer.

Then what is the goal?

Keep hospitals running and not overwhelmed? Lmao

Are policies being made with that goal in mind? Is that what public health officials are emphasizing in their current messaging? I'm not asking what your goal is, I'm asking what the goal is.

[Horus]

Zero COVID hasn't been plausible since "two weeks to slow the spread" but there's been plenty of strategic incoherence regarding why we are doing much of what we have been doing since then, so many people still believe that is our collective goal.

Nobody on here is arguing for it, maybe a few in the real world, but that definitely has not been the goal since…probably last summer.

Then what is the goal?

Keep hospitals running and not overwhelmed? Lmao

Omicron is mild and we're doing that.

What's the next goal?

[TheReckoning]

Zero COVID hasn't been plausible since "two weeks to slow the spread" but there's been plenty of strategic incoherence regarding why we are doing much of what we have been doing since then, so many people still believe that is our collective goal.

Nobody on here is arguing for it, maybe a few in the real world, but that definitely has not been the goal since…probably last summer.

Then what is the goal?

Keep hospitals running and not overwhelmed? Lmao

Omicron is mild and we're doing that.

Unless you’re a Vermont liberal.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So decided to get tested this morning after I started having symptoms that were somewhat similar to my early experience with COVID in Spring of 2020.

Test came back positive -- despite being fully vaccinated + boosted and having already danced with COVID-19.  

It's definitely not as bad as the first round thus far, though it's still rather uncomfortable.  Have a slightly elevated temperature, a deep dry cough, and just feel like I don't have any energy.  But certainly not getting that "chest full of broken glass" sensation that was just *so* enjoyable during the first time.

Fortunately, my schedule permits me to become a shut-in for the next week or so.  And I have a whole lot of DVD-watching to do. 

Anyway, enough attention-whoring: please take care of yourselves out there, folks!

[soundchaser]

PQG, I feel like that story is going to be a lot more common here in the coming weeks, so no worrries about attention whoring. Hope you get to feeling better soon!

[emailking]

Holy crap, there are over 400,000 cases today, which shatters yesterday's record, and still climbing.

[Inmate Trump]

Holy crap, there are over 400,000 cases today, which shatters yesterday's record, and still climbing.

I said it already but it’s going to be 1 million cases per day very soon.

[emailking]

The outgoing NIH director predicted we'd hit a million too.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Holy crap, there are over 400,000 cases today, which shatters yesterday's record, and still climbing.

Yes, France, Australia, UK, USA all at all time high new cases.

But none of these data will correlate into the mortality rate. Which means Omicron is a milder strain slowly taking over from Delta and the original COVID strain.

France just doubled it's previous peak, yet the deaths are less than a third of it's previous peak. That is a 6 fold decrease in mortality rate. Or <16% of the previous mortality rate.

So the combination of vaccines and less deadly strains of COVID are having a combined effect.

The real metric is no longer 'new cases', but rather ICU beds and hospitalisation. If Omicron is fair less virulent than Delta, then our two friends from South Africa who brought Omicron to Australia may have done us a huge favour as it is now spreading very fast in NSW but not killing anywhere near as many people.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/omicron-variant-could-replace-delta-strain-globally-head-of-russian-gamaleya-institute/articleshow/88250517.cms

For example, 90% of the new COVID cases in the UK are of the Omicron variant.

So the deadly forms of the COVID-19 virus are being replaced quite rapidly by less deadly strains with higher transmission rates.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

PQG, I feel like that story is going to be a lot more common here in the coming weeks, so no worrries about attention whoring. Hope you get to feeling better soon!

Thank you!

I am a bit concerned just because my respiratory function hasn't been the same since my first battle with COVID, but otherwise, I'm bundling up, making myself comfortable, and just settling in. 

I can at least take solace in that the effects would undoubtedly be so much worse if I was unvaccinated. 

[Calthrina950]

At this point, how many people are going to contract COVID-19? Is it inevitable that everyone is going to contract the virus at some point?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

At this point, how many people are going to contract COVID-19? Is it inevitable that everyone is going to contract the virus at some point?

Perhaps not *everybody*, but we may be rapidly approaching a point where it will be unusual if you HAVEN'T at least been exposed to someone who has tested positive.  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't understand all the people who claim they've never been exposed to it before. I guarantee we've all been exposed at some point. I can't count how many times I've been to a store, park, beach, or festival, or concert since March 2020, let alone how many thousands of other people I've been around in the process.

[Donerail]

At this point, how many people are going to contract COVID-19?

Roughly 329,500,000 in the United States.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Zero COVID hasn't been plausible since "two weeks to slow the spread" but there's been plenty of strategic incoherence regarding why we are doing much of what we have been doing since then, so many people still believe that is our collective goal.

Nobody on here is arguing for it, maybe a few in the real world, but that definitely has not been the goal since…probably last summer.

It's still plausible, though not easy. Vaccinate everyone on Earth. Send the whole SARS family the way of polio and measles.
Walter Reed military scientists testing vaccine that could protect against Omicron, future COVID variants

Scientists at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research spent nearly two years developing a COVID-19 vaccine that should protect people against the new Omicron variant, plus all past SARS-origin viruses, and presumably future coronavirus strains as well, Defense One reports. The Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle (SpFN) vaccine showed promising results in animal trials and Phase 1 human trials that wrapped up this month; it still needs to undergo Phase 2 and Phase 3 human trials.

[emailking]

We ended up at 465,000, a record by 130,000 cases.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This one's for Meclazine:

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1476371792537300997

[jamestroll]

https://larepublica.pe/sociedad/2021/12/29/coronavirus-peru-en-vivo-ultimas-noticias-de-vacunacion-covid-19-cronograma-horarios-padron-del-minsa-y-cifras-actualizadas-hoy-miercoles-29-de-diciembre-de-2021/

beaches again..

why are beaches such a target ?? Apparently its not just a thing of US Liberals.. beaches are under attack everywhere.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Is there any relevance whatsoever to the case numbers anymore?  Even with record official cases every day, it seems likely that they represent a small fraction of the number of people actually infected.  

Look at my own family.  I am 95% certain that myself, my wife, and my daughter all had covid in the past week, but none of us will ever be recorded as an official case, because:

1.) I tested positive via a home test
2.) My daughter tested negative via an official test, but I am pretty certain I caught covid from her (she had identical symptoms two days earlier than me), and thus this was a false negative
3.) My wife also has very similar symptoms to both of us, but hasn’t gotten tested because she’s certain enough she has covid and is already isolating with us that it seems like pointless additional info

And we are three people who are all symptomatic!  This says nothing of all the people who are catching Omicron and will never know or bother to find out because they remain asymptomatic.  It would seem very plausible to me if 5 million people/day in the US are actually being infected with Omicron this week.