COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Mr. Morden]

Chicago Teachers Union gearing up for walk out over COVID safety concerns

https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicago-students-to-return-to-class-monday-amid-debate-over-covid-19-safety/086d207e-9bdc-4a74-9eac-7faf5dc1770d

Major development here in Chicago

This is absolutely ridiculous. If you’re scared about COVID, then get vaccinated, and you’ll be fine. There’s absolutely no reason for anyone to want to work at home anymore, unless you’re counting “wanting to do less work” as a reason.

I agree. I’d add that one complicating factor they’re also weighing is staffing shortages. There’s worry over whether, with so many staff in quarantine or isolation, schools will be able to run properly in person.

A simple solution is a vaccine mandate for teachers so this whole issue can be ended.

I work at an office job in which attendance in the office is optional, but anyone who decides to go into the office must prove that they’re vaccinated.  Despite this, there are breakthrough cases, and a few days before Christmas, the office was shut down (and will remain so at least through the end of this week) because of an uptick in breakthrough cases.  There are no known cases so far in which one person with a breakthrough case in the office infected someone else in the office.  But still, whenever someone gets a breakthrough case, they’re sent home, regardless of whether they’re symptomatic.

So this is the question for in person schooling, I’d think: Even if there’s mandatory vaccination, there’ll be breakthrough cases.  With the current Omicron wave, there are quite a few breakthrough cases, but the vaccines limit the severity of the infections, and in many cases they’re asymptomatic.  So if there’s mandatory vaccination, and all teachers and students are vaccinated, but we get a bunch of asymptomatic breakthrough cases amongst teachers, then do we tell them to show up to teach at school anyway, or do we send them home to quarantine?  If the latter, then you could still have staffing shortages despite the vaccination requirement.

This is the same issue that was previously discussed w/ airline pilots.  If they test positive, they're sent home, regardless of whether they have symptoms.

It's not enough to have a vaccine requirement.  The key turn that would have to happen to end this would be to reach a point where someone getting an asymptomatic breakthrough case is treated as no big deal in terms of their threat to others, such that they can continue on the job rather than being sent home.

[Aurelius]

Crude analysis of Omicron severity based on SA data. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day case average: 259
Omicron peak of 7-day case average: 23,437

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day death average: 11
Omicron peak of 7-day death average: 67 (if deaths have in fact peaked)

Ratio of cases pre-Omicron/Omicron: 90.5
Ratio of deaths pre-Omicron/Omicron: 6.1

90.5 / 6.1 = 14.8

Thus it appears that Omicron is approximately 14.8 times less deadly than Delta.

[You are responsible]

Crude analysis of Omicron severity based on SA data. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day case average: 259
Omicron peak of 7-day case average: 23,437

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day death average: 11
Omicron peak of 7-day death average: 67 (if deaths have in fact peaked)

Ratio of cases pre-Omicron/Omicron: 90.5
Ratio of deaths pre-Omicron/Omicron: 6.1

90.5 / 6.1 = 14.8

Thus it appears that Omicron is approximately 14.8 times less deadly than Delta.

What does "pre-Omicron" mean or entail? I hope not the time when nobody was vaccinated? Of course COVID was deadlier than, but for different reasons. Also, there was also a time before Delta, was this taken into account here or not? I don't question the less frequent occurrence of severe cases with Omicron since this is by now medical consensus, but it's unclear to me whether your numbers actually mean anything either.

[Frodo]

Omicron Cases Are Hitting Highs, But New Data Puts End in Sight

A string of new studies has confirmed the silver lining of the omicron variant: Even as case numbers soar to records, the numbers of severe cases and hospitalizations have not. The data, some scientists say, signal a new, less worrying chapter of the pandemic.

“We’re now in a totally different phase,” said Monica Gandhi, an immunologist at the University of California, San Francisco. “The virus is always going to be with us, but my hope is this variant causes so much immunity that it will quell the pandemic.”

The omicron variant was discovered in South Africa just over a month ago, and experts caution that there is still plenty of time for the situation to change. But data from the past week suggest that a combination of widespread immunity and numerous mutations have resulted in a virus that causes far less severe disease than previous iterations.

One study out of South Africa found that patients admitted to the hospital there during the omicron-dominated fourth wave of the virus were 73% less likely to have severe disease than patients admitted during the delta-dominated third wave. “The data is quite solid now that hospitalizations and cases are decoupled,” said Wendy Burgers, an immunologist at the University of Cape Town.

[Hammy]

Crude analysis of Omicron severity based on SA data. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day case average: 259
Omicron peak of 7-day case average: 23,437

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day death average: 11
Omicron peak of 7-day death average: 67 (if deaths have in fact peaked)

Ratio of cases pre-Omicron/Omicron: 90.5
Ratio of deaths pre-Omicron/Omicron: 6.1

90.5 / 6.1 = 14.8

Thus it appears that Omicron is approximately 14.8 times less deadly than Delta.

What does "pre-Omicron" mean or entail? I hope not the time when nobody was vaccinated? Of course COVID was deadlier than, but for different reasons. Also, there was also a time before Delta, was this taken into account here or not? I don't question the less frequent occurrence of severe cases with Omicron since this is by now medical consensus, but it's unclear to me whether your numbers actually mean anything either.

South Africa has about 25% or so vaccination rate, not likely enough to make much of a difference in these numbers.

[You are responsible]

Crude analysis of Omicron severity based on SA data. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day case average: 259
Omicron peak of 7-day case average: 23,437

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day death average: 11
Omicron peak of 7-day death average: 67 (if deaths have in fact peaked)

Ratio of cases pre-Omicron/Omicron: 90.5
Ratio of deaths pre-Omicron/Omicron: 6.1

90.5 / 6.1 = 14.8

Thus it appears that Omicron is approximately 14.8 times less deadly than Delta.

What does "pre-Omicron" mean or entail? I hope not the time when nobody was vaccinated? Of course COVID was deadlier than, but for different reasons. Also, there was also a time before Delta, was this taken into account here or not? I don't question the less frequent occurrence of severe cases with Omicron since this is by now medical consensus, but it's unclear to me whether your numbers actually mean anything either.

South Africa has about 25% or so vaccination rate, not likely enough to make much of a difference in these numbers.

Of course it makes a difference, just not the the extent a higher vaxx rate would.

[Aurelius]

Crude analysis of Omicron severity based on SA data. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day case average: 259
Omicron peak of 7-day case average: 23,437

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day death average: 11
Omicron peak of 7-day death average: 67 (if deaths have in fact peaked)

Ratio of cases pre-Omicron/Omicron: 90.5
Ratio of deaths pre-Omicron/Omicron: 6.1

90.5 / 6.1 = 14.8

Thus it appears that Omicron is approximately 14.8 times less deadly than Delta.

What does "pre-Omicron" mean or entail? I hope not the time when nobody was vaccinated? Of course COVID was deadlier than, but for different reasons. Also, there was also a time before Delta, was this taken into account here or not? I don't question the less frequent occurrence of severe cases with Omicron since this is by now medical consensus, but it's unclear to me whether your numbers actually mean anything either.

Mid-November.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1478163515756187654?s=20

[GregTheGreat657]

A little over a week ago, an elderly man was assaulted for not wearing a mask while eating by a maskless woman, on a plane

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/woman-arrested-for-assaulting-elderly-man-on-flight-eating-without-mask-watch-1894088-2021-12-30

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another one.

https://twitter.com/RVAwonk/status/1478182032303960065

[Hammy]

A little over a week ago, an elderly man was assaulted for not wearing a mask while eating by a maskless woman, on a plane

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/woman-arrested-for-assaulting-elderly-man-on-flight-eating-without-mask-watch-1894088-2021-12-30

Everyone in this country's lost their minds.

[Blue3]

Not only are the local hospital and nursing home now asking for COVID-positive employees to come in, they're even saying it for employees who HAVE SYMPTOMS. This is in local hospital and nursing home.

https://www.wpri.com/target-12/covid-positive-health-care-workers-called-into-work-in-rhode-island/

I've also heard talk about employers sneakily updating policies so they can sue people who quit their jobs, or at least withhold their last paycheck, no good source yet.

[emailking]

Worldometers says 400K, not sure how they're handling the backlogs because the older numbers aren't much different.

[Oakvale]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1478009220624748545

Is Eric Adams America's most based political leader? Discuss.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Worldometers says 400K, not sure how they're handling the backlogs because the older numbers aren't much different.

The highest on Corona Scanner was only 560,726, which was this past Thursday.

[Oakvale]

Worldometers says 400K, not sure how they're handling the backlogs because the older numbers aren't much different.

The highest on Corona Scanner was only 560,726, which was this past Thursday.

I think with omicron case numbers are basically irrelevant since it's so mild the vast majority of those infected won't even bother getting tested.

[compucomp]

Worldometers says 400K, not sure how they're handling the backlogs because the older numbers aren't much different.

The highest on Corona Scanner was only 560,726, which was this past Thursday.

I think with omicron case numbers are basically irrelevant since it's so mild the vast majority of those infected won't even bother getting tested.

Fine then, total hospitalizations in the US are at about 100K and quickly rising. Absolute peak was at 140K last winter. NY and NJ have passed their hospitalization peaks from last winter.

I understand all the hopium and copium that people here are huffing in large quantities on the subject of Omicron, but "mild" does not mean "harmless". Yes, Omicron is milder than Delta, particularly for vaccinated people. No, it's not harmless; there's no way the common cold or the flu caused hospitalizations at this level in the past. And no, the pandemic is not over, despite how much you want it to be. The virus couldn't care less about how over it you are.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1478205885507727362

[TheReckoning]

https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1478205885507727362

RIP

[Zohranism is OUR future]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1478009220624748545

Is Eric Adams America's most based political leader? Discuss.

He couldn’t solve a crisis for s**t.
Honestly Sliwa would be better.

[Hammy]

Fine then, total hospitalizations in the US are at about 100K and quickly rising. Absolute peak was at 140K last winter. NY and NJ have passed their hospitalization peaks from last winter.

I understand all the hopium and copium that people here are huffing in large quantities on the subject of Omicron, but "mild" does not mean "harmless". Yes, Omicron is milder than Delta, particularly for vaccinated people. No, it's not harmless; there's no way the common cold or the flu caused hospitalizations at this level in the past. And no, the pandemic is not over, despite how much you want it to be. The virus couldn't care less about how over it you are.

Several points about this are questionable:
First and foremost, Delta is still circulating. People seem to be ignoring this point, so trying to hype omicron up into something more significant is grasping at straws.

Second, there have been several articles about the dominant flu strain this year (which is also one of the more severe ones) not matching the vaccines that are out, which is almost certainly behind the increase in hospitalizations.

Third, if you are hospitalized--no matter what reason--and test positive on screening, you are counted among covid hospitalizations. This is a point the CDC has been clear about in their studies, but everybody ignores when reporting the daily numbers. It's also worth noting many ICUs are near capacity even with only a quarter or so of those being COVID patients--we have a major capacity problem in general that is going ignored by much of the media.

And most importantly, the pandemic is now being driven entirely by the unvaccinated. At this point we need either penalization or incentive--hell, I'd be fine with just paying these people $10k or something to get vaccinated so we can get back to a functioning society. Continuing on the Covid Zero nonsense is destructive, both in the short and the longer term.

[Raccoon]

The past week or so, I have been a bit more skeptical of Virginia voting Democratic in 2024.

Just seeing how the Democratic areas in Virginia are handling omicron (No school closing proposals, no mask mandates, not major shut downs of services) compared to Democratic areas of the Northeast and Midwest.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Novak Djokovic says he has a medical exemption to come into Australia to defend his Australian Open title:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-04/novak-djokovic-says-received-an-exemption-to-enter-australia/100738536

Not sure if this will fly.

Whether both the Federal and State Governments agree on letting people in for sports reasons is a grey area.

[Meclazine for Israel]

....Delta is still circulating. People seem to be ignoring this point, so trying to hype omicron up into something more significant is grasping at straws.

Omicron is much less lethal than the Delta variant.

75% of ICU beds in NSW are Delta.

90% of New Cases in NSW are Omicron.

And the death rate world wide has plummeted to 0.2% down from between 1.8-2.0%

So that means if people are mainly dying from Delta (say 75% of case deaths) the Omicron mortality rate is 25% of 0.2%.

That comes out at 0.05% mortality rate for Omicron.

We will find out in 2-4 weeks time, but regardless of the final mortality rate for Omicron, it is becoming clear that as Omicron replaces Delta, then we are heading for the exit door of the pandemic.

[Horus]

Chicago Teachers Union gearing up for walk out over COVID safety concerns

https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicago-students-to-return-to-class-monday-amid-debate-over-covid-19-safety/086d207e-9bdc-4a74-9eac-7faf5dc1770d

Major development here in Chicago

This is absolutely ridiculous. If you’re scared about COVID, then get vaccinated, and you’ll be fine. There’s absolutely no reason for anyone to want to work at home anymore, unless you’re counting “wanting to do less work” as a reason.

I agree. I’d add that one complicating factor they’re also weighing is staffing shortages. There’s worry over whether, with so many staff in quarantine or isolation, schools will be able to run properly in person.

A simple solution is a vaccine mandate for teachers so this whole issue can be ended.

I work at an office job in which attendance in the office is optional, but anyone who decides to go into the office must prove that they’re vaccinated.  Despite this, there are breakthrough cases, and a few days before Christmas, the office was shut down (and will remain so at least through the end of this week) because of an uptick in breakthrough cases.  There are no known cases so far in which one person with a breakthrough case in the office infected someone else in the office.  But still, whenever someone gets a breakthrough case, they’re sent home, regardless of whether they’re symptomatic.

So this is the question for in person schooling, I’d think: Even if there’s mandatory vaccination, there’ll be breakthrough cases.  With the current Omicron wave, there are quite a few breakthrough cases, but the vaccines limit the severity of the infections, and in many cases they’re asymptomatic.  So if there’s mandatory vaccination, and all teachers and students are vaccinated, but we get a bunch of asymptomatic breakthrough cases amongst teachers, then do we tell them to show up to teach at school anyway, or do we send them home to quarantine?  If the latter, then you could still have staffing shortages despite the vaccination requirement.

This is the same issue that was previously discussed w/ airline pilots.  If they test positive, they're sent home, regardless of whether they have symptoms.

It's not enough to have a vaccine requirement.  The key turn that would have to happen to end this would be to reach a point where someone getting an asymptomatic breakthrough case is treated as no big deal in terms of their threat to others, such that they can continue on the job rather than being sent home.

Will this ever happen? A solid third, at least, of the country is still absolutely petrified of anything COVID. Even if lethality drops to below that of a cold, they will still be terrified. I'm not confident this will ever occur.