COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Outdoor mask wearing is back up to well over 50% in my neck of the woods.  Things are going backwards fast!

As long as it's optional, who cares? People can dress however they want.

People can wear whatever they want.  Its a sign of liberal neurosis and mass hysteria, however, that so many people are wearing cloth face coverings in open air, in a neighborhood that is over 90% vaccinated.  I will continue to comment on the illogical things I see.

Northsider here and you ain’t lyin. I’m pretty consistently the only person walking around my neighborhood maskless the past few weeks. Not sure if it’s neuroses, hysteria or straight up virtue signaling, but it’s everywhere. I swear Chicago will be permanently masked no matter how the next year or so shakes out.

[compucomp]

Also, there has been plenty of evidence that the CDC and other public health agencies have not been exemplary sources of science and knowledge during this pandemic, and here's another one, today the CDC revised its estimate of Omicron prevalence for 12/18 from 73.2% to 22.5%. Gee, that's a just a simple rounding error, huh? A tiny mistake? Incorrectly write down a decimal point or something?

[Hammy]

Also, there has been plenty of evidence that the CDC and other public health agencies have not been exemplary sources of science and knowledge during this pandemic, and here's another one, today the CDC revised its estimate of Omicron prevalence for 12/18 from 73.2% to 22.5%. Gee, that's a just a simple rounding error, huh? A tiny mistake? Incorrectly write down a decimal point or something?

Most of these are extrapolations, likely taking one or two states' data and applying them nationally. The methodology itself is likely one that's begging for large errors.

[Fargobison]

If a person still doesn't have symptoms after five days, I would say it is extremely likely they are not going to be a risk to spread the virus. If their symptoms have resolved I would also so say spread is very unlikely, especially if they are vaxxed. To me they should still isolate if sympotamtic at the five day mark, this should really be about common sense. If you are sick, isolate from others.

[Mr. Illini]

Also, there has been plenty of evidence that the CDC and other public health agencies have not been exemplary sources of science and knowledge during this pandemic, and here's another one, today the CDC revised its estimate of Omicron prevalence for 12/18 from 73.2% to 22.5%. Gee, that's a just a simple rounding error, huh? A tiny mistake? Incorrectly write down a decimal point or something?

What institutions do you trust on these matters?

[LabourJersey]

Unfortunately tested positive this afternoon, but without symptoms thankfully. Starting the 5 day quarantine in my apartment. The most frustrating part of it is that it's unclear where I got it, either from family or when I briefly went out to get a beer with a friend. The great thing about the booster at least is that I feel fine right now wheras if I was unvaccinated I just know I would be completely ill.

[Torie]

Unfortunately tested positive this afternoon, but without symptoms thankfully. Starting the 5 day quarantine in my apartment. The most frustrating part of it is that it's unclear where I got it, either from family or when I briefly went out to get a beer with a friend. The great thing about the booster at least is that I feel fine right now wheras if I was unvaccinated I just know I would be completely ill.

Good luck! I live in perpetual angst of contracting the virus, but reports like yours give me more confidence that if I get the virus, it won't further impair by much my anticipated life span, suck heart and all. So I hope you will post some good news 5 days hence, that all is well. I want to get out of covid prison so bad, but cannot in good conscience at the moment. I have a pack that still needs me.

[Fargobison]

Unfortunately tested positive this afternoon, but without symptoms thankfully. Starting the 5 day quarantine in my apartment. The most frustrating part of it is that it's unclear where I got it, either from family or when I briefly went out to get a beer with a friend. The great thing about the booster at least is that I feel fine right now wheras if I was unvaccinated I just know I would be completely ill.

Doesn't take much to get omicron, hopefully your next five days are event free and they should be since you are boosted.

[Frodo]

Omicron has proven (so far) to be relatively mild, especially by comparison with the Delta variant, and won't stick around for long:

https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/1475927786086977540

[It’s so Joever]

Can we just acknowledge this new guidance was made to keep things running and not because it will keep us just as “safe” from Covid? I am for the changes because of the nature of omicron, but as Compucomp is asking, be honest.

[Horus]

Can we just acknowledge this new guidance was made to keep things running and not because it will keep us just as “safe” from Covid? I am for the changes because of the nature of omicron, but as Compucomp is asking, be honest.

The CDC still isn't admitting that they want permanent mask mandates, why would they acknowledge this?

[Mr. Illini]

Can we just acknowledge this new guidance was made to keep things running and not because it will keep us just as “safe” from Covid? I am for the changes because of the nature of omicron, but as Compucomp is asking, be honest.

The 10 day isolation guideline was put into place in Summer 2020, which was pre-vax and pre-omicron. It’s possible for the CDC to update its guidance given new circumstances and it isn’t inherently corrupt just because business leaders were hoping for the change.

Knee-jerk reactions from the left are reminiscent of similar doubt-sowing that has been done on the right. I’ll continue to refer to the CDC’s guidance in my own decision-making rather than a collection of internet forum users or hysterical tweeters.

[ilikeverin]

Knee-jerk reactions from the left are reminiscent of similar doubt-sowing that has been done on the right. I’ll continue to refer to the CDC’s guidance in my own decision-making rather than a collection of internet forum users or hysterical tweeters.

I've been really creeped out by how quickly so many of my friends on the left suddenly know more than the CDC about how this virus spreads after months of shouting at folks on the right for doing the exact same thing.

I'm glad we understand more about COVID-19.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’ve been somewhat sick with covid for the past 3-4 days; it sounds like my symptoms are marginally worse than most fully vaccinated & boosted people are experiencing.  (My ~70yo parents were also very much exposed and have no symptoms whatsoever.)

But this has just convinced me even more that any restrictions on vaccinated people at this point are ridiculous.  Even if these restrictions were 100% decisive in whether you got covid or not (i.e. you were guaranteed to get covid if you didn’t wear a mask, and guaranteed not to get covid if you did wear a mask), in restrospect I would absolutely choose to get covid for a week than have to wear a mask everywhere for a year.  And the same goes with all of the other postponements and closures and cancellations that over the past ~8 months due to covid.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Deaths are dropping in the United States. The 7-day average fell from 1,165 last Thursday to 1,034 now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Deaths are dropping in the United States. The 7-day average fell from 1,165 last Thursday to 1,034 now.

Lets see what it is after the holidays.

[compucomp]

Also, there has been plenty of evidence that the CDC and other public health agencies have not been exemplary sources of science and knowledge during this pandemic, and here's another one, today the CDC revised its estimate of Omicron prevalence for 12/18 from 73.2% to 22.5%. Gee, that's a just a simple rounding error, huh? A tiny mistake? Incorrectly write down a decimal point or something?

What institutions do you trust on these matters?

I don't think any institution in particular can be 100% trusted as they have to answer to their financial backers or in the case of government agencies have leaders who serve at the pleasure of elected officials. I'm not saying they're all totally unreliable, but their actions and words should be taken with some salt and it is fair to scrutinize them when there is a clear connection between the action and their backers' motives. I think peer reviewed scientific publications are the best we have in terms of delivering unvarnished scientific truth, given that it's hard to buy off or intimidate the whole scientific consensus, and I would give the CDC more credit if they showed their work and published it.

In the particular case of the CDC, they're done quite a bit to lose my trust, from misleading/false statements such as the guidance to not buy masks or Redfield being a Trump lackey, and also on the scientific front such their failure at testing for COVID in February 2020 or this comically inaccurate Omicron projection.

Honestly, I have sympathy for the view that since Omicron is mild and ridiculously contagious, we need to lower the quarantine so things keep running. I can put on 10 masks to go the grocery store but if there's nothing on the shelf I'm still SOL. I think Fauci got the messaging right this time. But I don't like being manipulated and misled, and the sudden change with not well-known science suddenly revealed makes me suspicious.

[emailking]

312K cases today which is a new record (all waves).

[Frodo]

It appears those vaccines have another benefit besides the obvious.  They also boost your psychological health:

Vaccines help reduce COVID-19 transmission and hospitalization, but they may have important secondary benefits

Not sure how much is related to the knowledge that once you become inoculated, you no longer have to fear death from COVID like we all did up until the vaccines became widely available.  

[Green Line]

It appears those vaccines have another benefit besides the obvious.  They also boost your psychological health:

Vaccines help reduce COVID-19 transmission and hospitalization, but they may have important secondary benefits

Not sure how much is related to the knowledge that once you become inoculated, you no longer have to fear death from COVID like we all did up until the vaccines became widely available.  

Nobody in their teens, twenties, or thirties at least (so very few forum members) had a logical reason to fear death from Covid even pre-Vaccine, unless for some reason they lived in fear of the seasonal flu and cars for their whole lives as well.  That so many had this fear is thanks to the media, but I'm glad they're getting help for it regardless.

[Hammy]

It appears those vaccines have another benefit besides the obvious.  They also boost your psychological health:

Vaccines help reduce COVID-19 transmission and hospitalization, but they may have important secondary benefits

Not sure how much is related to the knowledge that once you become inoculated, you no longer have to fear death from COVID like we all did up until the vaccines became widely available.  

I will say that simply knowing a thing is no longer a problem can certainly be a huge boost to mental health--I felt markedly better knowing I could safely leave the house after being vaccinated, and similarly saw quite a big reduction in anxiety in May once was finally on blood pressure meds and didn't have to worry about that anymore.

Nobody in their teens, twenties, or thirties at least (so very few forum members) had a logical reason to fear death from Covid even pre-Vaccine

Moderate to severe COVID can cause life-long health complications, not to mention in my case issues like anxiety and panic disorder (though those may arguably fall outside of 'logical') and concerns quite a few people, myself included, had about bringing covid home to older family members.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think it's time for the United States to abandon its "zero COVID" approach.

[Roll Roons]

I think it's time for the United States to abandon its "zero COVID" approach.

I'm not sure that approach was ever actually viable. Even in February 2020.

[compucomp]

I think it's time for the United States to abandon its "zero COVID" approach.

The US never, at any point, had a "zero COVID" approach, particularly because most of the serious measures were on the honor system and not well enforced at all.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think it's time for the United States to abandon its "zero COVID" approach.

I'm not sure that approach was ever actually viable. Even in February 2020.

I'm not a medical professional (maybe some of our resident ones will comment) but my understanding is that zero COVID is effectively impossible for the same reasons that zero influenza is impossible: the first being that the flu virus mutates too rapidly, and the second being that immunity (whether from a vaccine or contracting the virus) wears off.  Viruses like smallpox and measles have been eradicated or nearly so because they don't have either of those traits; they don't mutate rapidly and they confer lifetime, or at least very long lasting, immunity.

I think the end game is for society to be able to manage COVID in the same ways that it does influenza, with vaccinations that need to be updated probably annually.  If a virulent strain becomes pandemic then individuals may change their behavior (e.g. masks) and businesses or governments might require some measures, just as they have done in some flu pandemics in relatively recent times.  (I remember classrooms in my school being half empty during the Hong Kong flu pandemic of the late 1960s; kids would be sent home at the first sign of any symptoms.  I seem to recall that we started Christmas break a few days early due to the flu, but I wouldn't swear to that.)