COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[It’s so Joever]

https://mobile.twitter.com/keribla/status/1325914300096110592

So much less than among (D) Cuomo's retirement homes?


Pretty clear it is because of higher share of elderly people in this particular prison.

Do you have anything better to do than politicizing and downplaying the virus?
Seriously I miss when you weren’t posting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kampeas/status/1326657994680045570

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/11/moderna-to-reveal-covid-vaccine-data-436113

Moderna will be releasing vaccine trial data in the next couple days, and Fauci thinks it might be just as effective as Pfizer. The US has already bought 100 million doses.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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11/1: <Sunday>

• Cases: 9,473,911 (+71,321 | ΔW Change: ↑16.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
• Deaths: 236,471 (+399 | ΔW Change: ↓9.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

11/2: <M>

• Cases: 9,567,110 (+93,199 | ΔW Change: ↑26.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 236,983 (+512 | ΔW Change: ↓4.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

11/3: <T>

• Cases: 9,693,632 (+126,522 | ΔW Change: ↑68.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 238,656 (+1,673 | ΔW Change: ↑60.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

11/4: <W>

• Cases: 9,801,355 (+107,723 | ΔW Change: ↑28.47% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 239,829 (+1,173 | ΔW Change: ↑11.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

11/5: <Þ>

• Cases: 9,919,522 (+118,167 | ΔW Change: ↑29.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 240,953 (+1,124 | ΔW Change: ↑8.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

11/6: <F>

• Cases: 10,058,586 (+139,064 | ΔW Change: ↑52.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.40%)
• Deaths: 242,230 (+1,277 | ΔW Change: ↑22.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

11/7: <S>

• Cases: 10,182,818 (+124,232 | ΔW Change: ↑43.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 243,257 (+1,027 | ΔW Change: ↑12.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

11/8: <Sunday>

• Cases: 10,288,480 (+105,662 | ΔW Change: ↑48.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 243,768 (+511 | ΔW Change: ↑28.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

11/9: <M>

• Cases: 10,421,956 (+133,476 | ΔW Change: ↑43.22% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 244,448 (+680 | ΔW Change: ↑32.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

11/10 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 10,559,184 (+137,228 | ΔW Change: ↑8.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 245,799 (+1,351 | ΔW Change: ↓19.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

11/11 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 10,708,728 (+149,544 | ΔW Change: ↑38.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.42%)
• Deaths: 247,398 (+1,599 | ΔW Change: ↑36.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

[Dr. Arch]

This is getting out of control really fast. I can't stress the kind of trouble we're going to be in if we don't put a stop to this exponential increase. The number of deaths is already starting to climb as a result of the increase in cases, and some states' healthcare systems are starting to get overwhelmed.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Deaths are lagging by approximately 3 weeks.


7-day rolling average of deaths:

          10 Nov        1 Dec (Prediction)
EU:     ~2700          ~4700 (+70%)
US:     ~1000          ~2000 (+100%)


It is based on assumption that healthcare system won't get overloaded.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Yeah, this is not looking good at the moment. It is reassuring to know, though, that Trump is focusing all of his attention on coordinating an effective response to this though, rather than spending all his energy tweeting about conspiracy theories. Oh, wait...

[Hnv1]

at the current rate next week we'll be back above 2k deaths a day

[Bandit3 the Worker]

According to the graph, North Dakota has gotten past its peak.

I don't know if antigen tests are behind the increase in the other states, but I'm sure those aren't far off from their peak. This is the same thing we saw in New York in the spring and Arizona in the summer.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah, this is not looking good at the moment. It is reassuring to know, though, that Trump is focusing all of his attention on coordinating an effective response to this though, rather than spending all his energy tweeting about conspiracy theories. Oh, wait...

Now that he's lost reelection, Trump is probably not going to do anything further (if he was doing anything to begin with) with regards to the pandemic. Out of spite, he's going to allow the situation to spiral out of control and put the pressure on state governments.

[HillGoose]

If they do lockdown again I bet more people are probably going to end up killing them selves out of isolation, financial hardship, or substance abuse than would die of the virus.

[GP270watch]

Corey Lewandowski tested positive for Covid-19, another Trump surrogate.

 It' a pretty bad situation that lameduck Trump will be the President for the next 70 days.

[jimrtex]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/09/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-effective/

In Pfizer’s 44,000-person trial, there have so far been 94 cases of covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, in people who were not previously infected. Fewer than nine of those cases were among people who received two shots of the vaccine, a strong signal of efficacy.

Even if only the placebo group is getting infected, 94 cases out of a 44,000 person trial seems like a shockingly low number of infections, considering over 1% of the whole US population has been confirmed infected within the last two months, and everyone in the trial is being regularly tested.

What time period?

OK there press release says that enrollment began on July 27, but only 89% have received the second dose which is administered 21 days after the first (it is not clear whether this is because of failure to complete the trial or just have not had time to do so). They are still continuing enrollment.

So the maximum period is a little over two months (July 27 + 21 days to second shot + 7 days to effectiveness = August 24, or 2+ months ago).

Making up an entirely baseless guess, let's say 1 month. But perhaps not. They anticipate reaching 162 cases by the 3rd week in November, so maybe 30 more per week?

85/21,769 = 0.39% over one month, which would correspond to 2.4% over around 6 months where COVID-19 has been widely available.

Testing is both in the US and international, I don't know the distribution.

If you were being tested weekly, you would likely be more cautious in your behavior. Also assume that those who have been infected have been somewhat more constrained in there behavior (on average).

Add P.S. Moderna was planning on releasing data when infections reached 53, but will be based on many more because of recent uptick in cases over past few weeks. This suggests persons given the placebo in September and early October are already being infected.

[jimrtex]

https://mobile.twitter.com/keribla/status/1325914300096110592

So much less than among (D) Cuomo's retirement homes?


Pretty clear it is because of higher share of elderly people in this particular prison.

It is a geriatric unit. The average age of the deceased was 72. Infections were in June. Lots of the sentences appear to be essentially life in prison.

[jimrtex]

(snip)

The reluctance some people have toward trusting this administration with guaranteeing the safety of a vaccine can be traced directly to Trump's pushing of hydroxychloroquine despite the fact that there was no evidence that it helps, as well as the whole fiasco of suggesting treating people with disinfectants - or "injecting bleach" as it became known in the popular shorthand. You can't unring the bell of crossing into such blatant medical quackery, and this is why he never should have been on television pretending to give out medical advice. If he had just shut his stupid mouth and let the medical experts lead, there wouldn't be major fears about the vaccine.

1) It is still a conspiracy to think that Trump would somehow get CDS & Big Pharma to approve a vaccine they otherwise wouldn't. I hope you agree?
2) Democrats could easily dispel this conspiracy theories or "fears" as you put it. They didn't. It was more like they riding the conspiracy/fears wave.
2) As you see, Blacks are waaaay more likely to restrain from taking a vaccine despite being most vulnerable demographics. They also happen to trust Dem Party more than others. See the pattern here? Among Asians 70% would take vs 29 among Blacks! Asians ar not "fearful".

It will be hilarious if the vaccine takes off right after Biden gets inaugurated.

It would be a lot like the Iran hostage crisis being resolved right after Reagan was sworn in.

Very hilarious, indeed. Besides the fact that the sooner people get vaccinated, the more will be saved. But Orange Bad would get mad!

Ever heard of the Tuskegee experiment?

Started under FDR, ended under Nixon.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/repdonyoung/status/1326996302765445120

Don Young is the oldest serving member of Congress at age 87 (he's a few days older than Dianne Feinstein).

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/repdonyoung/status/1326996302765445120

Don Young is the oldest serving member of Congress at age 87 (he's a few days older than Dianne Feinstein).

Yikes.

[It’s so Joever]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

[Omega21]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

A lot of your party is also responsible for this.

Instead of focusing on lifting up poor people, every second world is about lifting up people of colour . A lot of you have fully embraced borderline insane identity politics, instead of focusing on the fact that all the problems which arise in all communities, whether that's poor white people in trailer camps or black people in "hoods", is a result lack of access to education and poverty.

Instead of fighting for real women's rights, such as paid maternity leave, you put on your pink hats and scream about male privilege or viciously support unlimited abortion, even though no sane developed country allows random abortions at a late stage because a 7-month fetus is no different from a newborn baby.

You have lost a sh**t ton of white working-class people to Republicans due to certain Democrats demonizing "white cis males", and frankly, unless you root out these people and stop giving them a voice, you do not deserve a single one of these things.

When is the last time you had BLM/#Metoo scale protests for 100% healthcare coverage? Well, I'll tell you, never.

[It’s so Joever]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

A lot of your party is also responsible for this.

Instead of focusing on lifting up poor people, every second world is about lifting up people of colour . A lot of you have fully embraced borderline insane identity politics, instead of focusing on the fact that all the problems which arise in all communities, whether that's poor white people in trailer camps or black people in "hoods", is a result lack of access to education and poverty.

Instead of fighting for real women's rights, such as paid maternity leave, you put on your pink hats and scream about male privilege or viciously support unlimited abortion, even though no sane developed country allows random abortions at a late stage because a 7-month fetus is no different from a newborn baby.

You have lost a sh**t ton of white working-class people to Republicans due to certain Democrats demonizing "white cis males", and frankly, unless you root out these people and stop giving them a voice, you do not deserve a single one of these things.

When is the last time you had BLM/#Metoo scale protests for 100% health coverage? Well, I'll tell you, never.

Correct.
The virtue-signaling on social issues has p**sed me off quite a lot actually. In fact, I literally agree with everything you said and have bashed fellow red avatars in the past for getting into these stupid culture wars.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

According to this, lockdowns are losing support precipitously...

https://news.gallup.com/poll/324146/americans-less-amenable-covid-lockdown.aspx

[Omega21]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

A lot of your party is also responsible for this.

Instead of focusing on lifting up poor people, every second world is about lifting up people of colour . A lot of you have fully embraced borderline insane identity politics, instead of focusing on the fact that all the problems which arise in all communities, whether that's poor white people in trailer camps or black people in "hoods", is a result lack of access to education and poverty.

Instead of fighting for real women's rights, such as paid maternity leave, you put on your pink hats and scream about male privilege or viciously support unlimited abortion, even though no sane developed country allows random abortions at a late stage because a 7-month fetus is no different from a newborn baby.

You have lost a sh**t ton of white working-class people to Republicans due to certain Democrats demonizing "white cis males", and frankly, unless you root out these people and stop giving them a voice, you do not deserve a single one of these things.

When is the last time you had BLM/#Metoo scale protests for 100% health coverage? Well, I'll tell you, never.

Correct.
The virtue-signaling on social issues has p**sed me off quite a lot actually. In fact, I literally agree with everything you said and have bashed fellow red avatars in the past for getting into these stupid culture wars.

Glad to see a fellow pragmatist!

This has also made its way to Europe sadly, with 19-year-old white Eco-warrior tankies saying stuff like "Well old white men like you just can't understand!" and on the other end of the spectrum ethnonationalists saying "well I'm not really sure if the exact numbers about the Holocaust are right". (can't fully deny it or they'll be getting some prison Wiener lol)

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

A lot of your party is also responsible for this.

Instead of focusing on lifting up poor people, every second world is about lifting up people of colour . A lot of you have fully embraced borderline insane identity politics, instead of focusing on the fact that all the problems which arise in all communities, whether that's poor white people in trailer camps or black people in "hoods", is a result lack of access to education and poverty.

Instead of fighting for real women's rights, such as paid maternity leave, you put on your pink hats and scream about male privilege or viciously support unlimited abortion, even though no sane developed country allows random abortions at a late stage because a 7-month fetus is no different from a newborn baby.

This analysis is too online. Every Democrat claims to be fighting for poor (or, more euphemistically, "working") people and families. Those who focus instead on "people of color" are either (1) social media activists or (2) people who represent actual people of color in congress (and even then, most of the time, most of these people are still talking about working families more than they are their race).

Look, I find social media activists incredibly tedious and self-indulgent. I don't enjoy reading a lot of the screed they post. They're a growing (but still likely plurality) share of the rank-and-file Democratic electorate. But I'm not so resentful that I conflate green-haired instagram teenagers with actual Democratic politicians.

You have lost a sh**t ton of white working-class people to Republicans due to certain Democrats demonizing "white cis males", and frankly, unless you root out these people and stop giving them a voice, you do not deserve a single one of these things.

Again, this analysis is way too online. The number of elected Democrats who ever (let alone regularly!) slander "white cis males" can probably be counted on your fingers and toes. You're conflating a type of extremely-online activist with a party that, in most cases, is too old to even understand what it means to be "cis".

There are culture wars grievances that are definitely costing Democrats a ton of working class white votes. These are much more likely to be related to urban/rural identity and college attainment than race, gender, or sexuality. I am sure that basically no working class person decided their vote on critical race theory instead of, say, federal emissions regulations or gas taxes.

When is the last time you had BLM/#Metoo scale protests for 100% healthcare coverage? Well, I'll tell you, never.

I more or less agree with the sentiment here, although there are very obvious differences between police brutality or rampant workplace sexual harassment and paying too much for your deductible.

[It’s so Joever]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

A lot of your party is also responsible for this.

Instead of focusing on lifting up poor people, every second world is about lifting up people of colour . A lot of you have fully embraced borderline insane identity politics, instead of focusing on the fact that all the problems which arise in all communities, whether that's poor white people in trailer camps or black people in "hoods", is a result lack of access to education and poverty.

Instead of fighting for real women's rights, such as paid maternity leave, you put on your pink hats and scream about male privilege or viciously support unlimited abortion, even though no sane developed country allows random abortions at a late stage because a 7-month fetus is no different from a newborn baby.

This analysis is too online. Every Democrat claims to be fighting for poor (or, more euphemistically, "working") people and families. Those who focus instead on "people of color" are either (1) social media activists or (2) people who represent actual people of color in congress (and even then, most of the time, most of these people are still talking about working families more than they are their race).

Look, I find social media activists incredibly tedious and self-indulgent. I don't enjoy reading a lot of the screed they post. They're a growing (but still likely plurality) share of the rank-and-file Democratic electorate. But I'm not so resentful that I conflate green-haired instagram teenagers with actual Democratic politicians.

You have lost a sh**t ton of white working-class people to Republicans due to certain Democrats demonizing "white cis males", and frankly, unless you root out these people and stop giving them a voice, you do not deserve a single one of these things.

Again, this analysis is way too online. The number of elected Democrats who ever (let alone regularly!) slander "white cis males" can probably be counted on your fingers and toes. You're conflating a type of extremely-online activist with a party that, in most cases, is too old to even understand what it means to be "cis".

There are culture wars grievances that are definitely costing Democrats a ton of working class white votes. These are much more likely to be related to urban/rural identity and college attainment than race, gender, or sexuality. I am sure that basically no working class person decided their vote on critical race theory instead of, say, federal emissions regulations or gas taxes.

When is the last time you had BLM/#Metoo scale protests for 100% healthcare coverage? Well, I'll tell you, never.

I more or less agree with the sentiment here, although there are very obvious differences between police brutality or rampant workplace sexual harassment and paying too much for your deductible.

Well...it seems every other sentence I hear from a lot of Democratic politicians mentions race/gender.
Yes there are discrepancies and we can work to resolve those, but I don’t really think you can deny the virtue signaling coming from some Democratic politicians. Tbh, I actually think Biden is better on this than most.

[It’s so Joever]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

A lot of your party is also responsible for this.

Instead of focusing on lifting up poor people, every second world is about lifting up people of colour . A lot of you have fully embraced borderline insane identity politics, instead of focusing on the fact that all the problems which arise in all communities, whether that's poor white people in trailer camps or black people in "hoods", is a result lack of access to education and poverty.

Instead of fighting for real women's rights, such as paid maternity leave, you put on your pink hats and scream about male privilege or viciously support unlimited abortion, even though no sane developed country allows random abortions at a late stage because a 7-month fetus is no different from a newborn baby.

This analysis is too online. Every Democrat claims to be fighting for poor (or, more euphemistically, "working") people and families. Those who focus instead on "people of color" are either (1) social media activists or (2) people who represent actual people of color in congress (and even then, most of the time, most of these people are still talking about working families more than they are their race).

Look, I find social media activists incredibly tedious and self-indulgent. I don't enjoy reading a lot of the screed they post. They're a growing (but still likely plurality) share of the rank-and-file Democratic electorate. But I'm not so resentful that I conflate green-haired instagram teenagers with actual Democratic politicians.

You have lost a sh**t ton of white working-class people to Republicans due to certain Democrats demonizing "white cis males", and frankly, unless you root out these people and stop giving them a voice, you do not deserve a single one of these things.

Again, this analysis is way too online. The number of elected Democrats who ever (let alone regularly!) slander "white cis males" can probably be counted on your fingers and toes. You're conflating a type of extremely-online activist with a party that, in most cases, is too old to even understand what it means to be "cis".

There are culture wars grievances that are definitely costing Democrats a ton of working class white votes. These are much more likely to be related to urban/rural identity and college attainment than race, gender, or sexuality. I am sure that basically no working class person decided their vote on critical race theory instead of, say, federal emissions regulations or gas taxes.

When is the last time you had BLM/#Metoo scale protests for 100% healthcare coverage? Well, I'll tell you, never.

I more or less agree with the sentiment here, although there are very obvious differences between police brutality or rampant workplace sexual harassment and paying too much for your deductible.

by the way....I bet our archaic healthcare system kills infinitely more people than police brutality.