Texas 2022 megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

Beto’s a much more energetic candidate than Lupe Valdez was in 2018, so I think youth turnout could go up this year. Dobbs could be a factor in that too.

It's interesting how even Valdez won Hays County in 2018. It would be reasonable to expect for it and adjoining Travis County to swing strongly Democratic this year. O'Rourke should also flip Fort Bend County, which Abbott won by only 493 votes against Valdez. But what about Tarrant and Williamson Counties? O'Rourke won them in 2018, and Biden won them in 2020. If Abbott wins by about the margin Cornyn did in 2020, he should hold those counties (as Cornyn did).

I expect Abbott to win both, but I’m more confident in Tarrant than Williamson.

Austin area has always seemed to be Beto’s strength and Williamson County trends are far more brutal for Rs.

Exactly, plus Tarrant is more swingy and was closer than Williamson in 2020.

Plus Dems base in Tarrant County tends to very low turnout minority communities which can be unreliable in midterms. However, Rs win over a lot of high propensity high turnout whiter suburbs. I’d argue the dem base in Williamson County is prolly more reliable than the R base.

[Real Texan Politics]

Alright folks, here’s a question for y’all because I’m curious to know what y’all think.

What are some counties that you think Abbott will win but Paxton will lose? For me, the only one that comes to mind is the aforementioned Williamson County.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Alright folks, here’s a question for y’all because I’m curious to know what y’all think.

What are some counties that you think Abbott will win but Paxton will lose? For me, the only one that comes to mind is the aforementioned Williamson County.

I mean we don't really have that clear AG polling, do we? Paxton will underperform Abbott, sure, but the county differences really depend on how much they both get (i.e. 7%/10% vs 12%/15%)

[Real Texan Politics]

Beto doubling down on the Harry Styles endorsement
https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1577483425711276037?s=46&t=5j5OnCL0XS...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Beto doubling down on the Harry Styles endorsement
https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1577483425711276037?s=46&t=5j5OnCL0XS...

The single-issue Harry Styles voters/closeted Republicans aren't that big of a demographic.

[Ferguson97]

Beto doubling down on the Harry Styles endorsement
https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1577483425711276037?s=46&t=5j5OnCL0XS...

The single-issue Harry Styles voters/closeted Republicans aren't that big of a demographic.

No, but celebrity endorsements are not completely meaningless and it could cause an apolitical young woman to turn out instead of staying home.

[Real Texan Politics]

Beto doubling down on the Harry Styles endorsement
https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1577483425711276037?s=46&t=5j5OnCL0XS...

The single-issue Harry Styles voters/closeted Republicans aren't that big of a demographic.

No, but celebrity endorsements are not completely meaningless and it could cause an apolitical young woman to turn out instead of staying home.

Could help Beto out slightly in the suburbs, mainly around Austin and potentially Dallas.

[Mr. Smith]

Alright folks, here’s a question for y’all because I’m curious to know what y’all think.

What are some counties that you think Abbott will win but Paxton will lose? For me, the only one that comes to mind is the aforementioned Williamson County.

Tarrant?

[Real Texan Politics]

Alright folks, here’s a question for y’all because I’m curious to know what y’all think.

What are some counties that you think Abbott will win but Paxton will lose? For me, the only one that comes to mind is the aforementioned Williamson County.

Tarrant?

I wouldn't write it off completely, although it wasn't that democratic in 2020.

[Orwell]

Beto doubling down on the Harry Styles endorsement
https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1577483425711276037?s=46&t=5j5OnCL0XS...

The single-issue Harry Styles voters/closeted Republicans aren't that big of a demographic.

No, but celebrity endorsements are not completely meaningless and it could cause an apolitical young woman to turn out instead of staying home.

Could help Beto out slightly in the suburbs, mainly around Austin and potentially Dallas.

Yea, he's really popular among young people so *shrug* maybe can't hurt tbh I don't think anyone is really deciding their vote on the Harry Styles endorsement.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

[Calthrina950]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just got an ad featuring ballerina shoes and then pivoting to talking about how those shoes were used to identify a girl who died at Uvalde, than accusing Greg Abbott of doing nothing substantial to help the people of Uvalde (at least that's what it sounded like).

[windjammer]

I understand that in Texax rural latinos are trending gop and suburbans whites are trending dem

Which trend is going to be the strongest?

[TwinGeeks99]

I understand that in Texax rural latinos are trending gop and suburbans whites are trending dem

Which trend is going to be the strongest?

It's probably going to be the latter, mostly due to the fact that much of that leftward trend is driven by actual population growth to the region. Even if that demographic reverted back to Romney 2012 margins, Republicans still wouldn't see the massive margins he got back then due to more people coming into those regions.

[wbrocks67]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I understand that in Texax rural latinos are trending gop and suburbans whites are trending dem

Which trend is going to be the strongest?

It's probably going to be the latter, mostly due to the fact that much of that leftward trend is driven by actual population growth to the region. Even if that demographic reverted back to Romney 2012 margins, Republicans still wouldn't see the massive margins he got back then due to more people coming into those regions.

Yeah I think it’s physically impossible for a place like Collin County to voted how it voted just 10 years ago for the reasons stated above.

Also, suburban Texas is far more populated as is than rural Latino communities.

[Mr. Smith]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

Very likely under at this point.

Definitely under Hegar at the worst.

[Calthrina950]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

I'd be shocked if O'Rourke did that well again, but a single-digit margin certainly isn't implausible at this point.

[2016]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

I'd be shocked if O'Rourke did that well again, but a single-digit margin certainly isn't implausible at this point.

The Border is completely out of control and O'Rourke wants to give amnesty to everyone who is coming without vetting. Give me a break!

[GeorgiaModerate]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

I'd be shocked if O'Rourke did that well again, but a single-digit margin certainly isn't implausible at this point.

The Border is completely out of control and O'Rourke wants to give amnesty to everyone who is coming without vetting. Give me a break!

Are you then predicting that Abbott will win by double digits?

[2016]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

I'd be shocked if O'Rourke did that well again, but a single-digit margin certainly isn't implausible at this point.

The Border is completely out of control and O'Rourke wants to give amnesty to everyone who is coming without vetting. Give me a break!

Are you then predicting that Abbott will win by double digits?

Probably not by Double Digits, 7-9 Points I think.

[Calthrina950]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

I'd be shocked if O'Rourke did that well again, but a single-digit margin certainly isn't implausible at this point.

The Border is completely out of control and O'Rourke wants to give amnesty to everyone who is coming without vetting. Give me a break!

I said that a single-digit margin isn't implausible, but it is not certain. As of now, I believe Abbott will do worse than he did in 2018, but better than Cruz did that year, and probably similar to how Cornyn did in 2020. And I fully expect for the Rio Grande Valley to swing his way, while O'Rourke will almost certainly flip Fort Bend County and will hold Abbott to single-digit margins in Tarrant and Williamson Counties, if he doesn't win them outright.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1579226077045854208

[Roll Roons]

Ah yes, those famously accurate internals that people were jerking themselves off over:
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1320748939751026690