Texas 2022 megathread

[Roll Roons]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/05/10/former-state-sen-don-huffines-announces-hell-challenge-texas-gov-greg-abbott-in-gop-primary/

Not sure if this has been brought up, but former Dallas County State Senator Don Huffines, who lost reelection in 2018, will challenge Abbott in the GOP primary.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.ksat.com/news/texas/2021/09/29/matthew-dowd-former-george-w-bush-strategist-to-run-as-democrat-for-texas-lieutenant-governor/

Former Bush strategist Matthew Dowd running for Lt Gov as a Democrat. This should be interesting...

[Roll Roons]

Great news. Beto is doing the Democratic Party a favor win or lose. You have to compete.

Exactly. Just because his Dem Prez campaign didn't go well doesn't mean anything.

I guess Klobuchar is also going to lose because her campaign went down in flames too! People need to realize that that primary is its own thing and has no bearing on any of these senators/governor races (just like how people keep bringing it up with Kamala as well)

The difference is Klobuchar didn't make herself look like a complete idiot when running for president.

[Roll Roons]

Obviously I expect Abbott to win, but I'm conflicted about the margin.

On one hand, the national environment is likely to be much better for the GOP compared to 2018 and O'Rourke, despite being well-known and well-funded compared to Valdez, has a lot of liabilities.

But at the same time, it seems like Abbott's popularity has really declined this year. So it's hard to say exactly what happens.

[Roll Roons]

These Lincoln Project types are just such a joke, example god knows what.

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Holy Harris County!

Wonder what the deal is with those two random rural counties where Democrats are leading.

[Roll Roons]

What are the chances Abbott gets forced into a runoff?

I guess it can't be completely ruled out, but it's very unlikely. I think he clears 65 in the first round.

Paxton, on the other hand, will probably be forced into a runoff with P. 

[Roll Roons]

What I am looking forward to is Louie Gohmert finishing 4th in the AG race. I love it when a sitting congressperson gives up a safe seat only to crash and burn in a primary.

Especially considering that his likely replacement in Congress (County Judge Nate Moran) is much saner and less incendiary than him.

[Roll Roons]

Guzman is probably the most tolerable Republican running for AG (simply by process of elimination, the others YECH) so her making the runoff would be a good outcome, although based on these results she probably has no chance of winning it. Can Democrats crossover to a runoff after voting in the D primary?

I know Texas has open primaries, but I'm not sure what the rule is when it comes to runoffs.

[Roll Roons]

So looks like both the DEM & PUB TX Primaries are going to run-offs?

The following statewide offices appear to be going to runoffs:
LG (D)
AG (R and D)
Land Commissioner (R and D)
Comptroller (D)
Railroad Commissioner (R)

[Roll Roons]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

[Roll Roons]

Ah yes, those famously accurate internals that people were jerking themselves off over:
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1320748939751026690

[Roll Roons]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.