Texas 2022 megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

I just cannot see Beto winning Hispanics by 30. I don’t even think Hillary Clinton won them by that much (at least in Texas)?

According to NBC, she won Latinos by 27% in Texas (compared to 36% nationwide).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/tx/

Yea, no way Beto overperforms Hillary Clinton of all people with Hispanics. I say he wins them by mid single digits, if he wins then at all.

[Ferguson97]

I just cannot see Beto winning Hispanics by 30. I don’t even think Hillary Clinton won them by that much (at least in Texas)?

According to NBC, she won Latinos by 27% in Texas (compared to 36% nationwide).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/tx/

Yea, no way Beto overperforms Hillary Clinton of all people with Hispanics. I say he wins them by mid single digits, if he wins then at all.

You think Hispanics will swing over 20%?

Okay, I'll take that bet. I'll say he wins Hispanics by, minimum, 15-20%.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I just cannot see Beto winning Hispanics by 30. I don’t even think Hillary Clinton won them by that much (at least in Texas)?

According to NBC, she won Latinos by 27% in Texas (compared to 36% nationwide).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/tx/

Yea, no way Beto overperforms Hillary Clinton of all people with Hispanics. I say he wins them by mid single digits, if he wins then at all.

You think Hispanics will swing over 20%?

Okay, I'll take that bet. I'll say he wins Hispanics by, minimum, 15-20%.

I'll split the difference. 55-45 or a 10 point margin in favor of Beto.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Biden won Hispanics about 58-41. Most polls show Abbott well into the 40’s with them and maybe even being a tossup. Also, early votes are not everything but districts 15/28/34 are among the biggest republican over-performances in the country. It suggests the conventional wisdom about momentum in those districts could be true.

Based on all this, I think Abbott gets at least 43% or so of the Hispanic vote and would not be shocked if he narrowly won it.

[Ferguson97]

I really think Abbott's victory will come from suburban whites rather than Hispanics, but I guess we'll see

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I just cannot see Beto winning Hispanics by 30. I don’t even think Hillary Clinton won them by that much (at least in Texas)?

According to NBC, she won Latinos by 27% in Texas (compared to 36% nationwide).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/tx/

Yea, no way Beto overperforms Hillary Clinton of all people with Hispanics. I say he wins them by mid single digits, if he wins then at all.

You think Hispanics will swing over 20%?

Okay, I'll take that bet. I'll say he wins Hispanics by, minimum, 15-20%.

I'll split the difference. 55-45 or a 10 point margin in favor of Beto.

*shoves chips* All in on Beto beating Clinton’s margins!!

[OSR stands with Israel]

I really think Abbott's victory will come from suburban whites rather than Hispanics, but I guess we'll see

In Absolute Terms, definitely as even Trump's win in 2020 Texas had more to do with suburban whites than Hispanics.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/texas/0

Trump still won 56% of White College Educated Voters in Texas and that number was 62% among White College Educated Male Voters in Texas. Hell he won 60% of Whites in the Houston area and 59% in DFW in 2020 so in absolute terms you are right.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/texas/5


In Relative Terms though , Trump clearly did better with hispanics and I think Abbott will as well

[2016]

Abbott has this. Early Vote Turnout in Texas is below 2018 Levels.

My Question is can Abbott pad enough of a margin to drag Mayra Flores, Monica de la Cruz and Cassy Garcia over the line.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Abbott has this. Early Vote Turnout in Texas is below 2018 Levels.

My Question is can Abbott pad enough of a margin to drag Mayra Flores, Monica de la Cruz and Cassy Garcia over the line.

RGV turnout specifically has actually been pretty insane with Starr County surpassing its ENTIRE 2014 vote total and other counties coming close.

It’s hard to tell who exactly this favors. On the one hand, people can make the case that in 2020 higher turnout was a large part of the reason RGV swung so heavily to Trump. On the flip side, RGV still leans D overall and perhaps Democrats taking the region seriously for once could yield higher turnout on their side as well.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Abbot a UT graduate was cheared at an A&M game when he came on the field. Make of that what you will

[Indy Texas]

I just cannot see Beto winning Hispanics by 30. I don’t even think Hillary Clinton won them by that much (at least in Texas)?

According to NBC, she won Latinos by 27% in Texas (compared to 36% nationwide).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/tx/

Yea, no way Beto overperforms Hillary Clinton of all people with Hispanics. I say he wins them by mid single digits, if he wins then at all.

RGV Hispanics != Hispanics in the rest of the state

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1587540450763743232

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1587540450763743232

Is this on TV or no? That’s one hell of an ad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1587540450763743232

Is this on TV or no? That’s one hell of an ad.

I think what's good about this ad it is really doesn't come across as a political ad and it's engaging to thye viewer through the humor in the skit and stuff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is OVER

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1587540450763743232

Fantastic ad. It's a shame Abbott will win re-election. He's my 2nd most hated GOP Governor.

[US Politics Fanatic]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1587436823256522752

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1587436823256522752

That’s actually a really sweet story. Beto seems like a good communicator, especially on the more individual level. I doubt these 2 men encompass any large swath of the electorate though.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1587436823256522752

That’s actually a really sweet story. Beto seems like a good communicator, especially on the more individual level. I doubt these 2 men encompass any large swath of the electorate though.

Beto strikes me as the classic "pretty cool guy" candidate.  His politics aside (some of which I like, some I don't), you could easily shoot the sh**t with him about music or sports or just life in general.  

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1587436823256522752

That’s actually a really sweet story. Beto seems like a good communicator, especially on the more individual level. I doubt these 2 men encompass any large swath of the electorate though.

Beto strikes me as the classic "pretty cool guy" candidate.  His politics aside (some of which I like, some I don't), you could easily shoot the sh**t with him about music or sports or just life in general.  

Def passed the want to have a beer with test. He’s also been pretty effective at not being able to just be defined as a “progressive” or “moderate” or those sorts of labels. I think he loses but holds it closer than expected considering the national environment.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Beto is coming back to A&M the day before the election
 Hopefully we'll be able to fill up the theater just like we did the auditorium the last time he came on campus.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is over TX ACTIVOTE a D pollsters has all Rs ahead by 8 not 14 pts


GREG ABBOTT 47/40,.
52/44 Final poll

https://civiqs.com/reports/2022/11/2/election-2022-new-civiqs-polls-in-florida-north-carolina-and-arizona


FL IS STILL WINNABLE ITS NOT TX, especially DEMINGS

[Real Texan Politics]

Beto is coming back to A&M the day before the election
 Hopefully we'll be able to fill up the theater just like we did the auditorium the last time he came on campus.

I’m interested in seeing how Brazos County trends/swings this time around. Abbott is undeniably winning it by at least 10, but does he keep the MOV above 15 or does it vote slightly left of 2020?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Beto is coming back to A&M the day before the election
 Hopefully we'll be able to fill up the theater just like we did the auditorium the last time he came on campus.

I’m interested in seeing how Brazos County trends/swings this time around. Abbott is undeniably winning it by at least 10, but does he keep the MOV above 15 or does it vote slightly left of 2020?

I'm almost certain the county will trend left, and do think it's more likley than not to swing left from the 2020 presidental election.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Just got back from the polling booths with two friends, both first time voters.

It was an hour to polls closed and there was pretty decent foot traffic, which I was glad to see.