Which republican gubernatorial candidate had the most impressive performance in 2022?

[Agafin]

And why?

[President Johnson]

Even as Hochul stan, I must admit Zeldin. I didn't even see him cracking even 43% of the vote. It's still beyond me how he got close to 47%. In New York, and a neutral environment. And has a candidate, he was a hard-right winger that voted to overturn the 2020 election. It would be understandable with a charismatic and more moderate candidate.

However, it goes beyond that individual race. The races for senate and attorney general barely went better for Democrats.

[NewYorkExpress]

Zeldin.

His downballot coattails almost singlehandedly gave Republicans the House.

[Xing]

I’m still going to say Phil Scott. There’s being a popular incumbent, then there’s winning one of the most Democratic states in the country by more than the Democratic nominee did in the previous election… as a Republican. Imagine a Democrat winning by more than 43 in Wyoming (I know, this almost happened in 2006.)

[Reactionary Libertarian]

DeSantis, but Zeldin is a close second.

[Tekken_Guy]

I’m still going to say Phil Scott. There’s being a popular incumbent, then there’s winning one of the most Democratic states in the country by more than the Democratic nominee did in the previous election… as a Republican. Imagine a Democrat winning by more than 43 in Wyoming (I know, this almost happened in 2006.)

Charlie Baker 2018 and Mike Beebe 2010 are good analogies for this.

[Progressive Pessimist]

DeSuckass was already assumed to win by a landslide and then ended up winning by an even bigger one while Zeldin was expected to keep his loss close but not as close as it ended up. By virtue of both of those things it's kind of a tie between those two.

Everyone else pretty much performed as expected.

[OSR stands with Israel]

DeSuckass was already assumed to win by a landslide and then ended up winning by an even bigger one while Zeldin was expected to keep his loss close but not as close as it ended up. By virtue of both of those things it's kind of a tie between those two.

Everyone else pretty much performed as expected.

I would say the tiebreaker goes to Zeldin given that DeSantis is an incumbent while Zeldin isnt.

[2016]

DeSuckass was already assumed to win by a landslide and then ended up winning by an even bigger one while Zeldin was expected to keep his loss close but not as close as it ended up. By virtue of both of those things it's kind of a tie between those two.

Everyone else pretty much performed as expected.

I would say the tiebreaker goes to Zeldin given that DeSantis is an incumbent while Zeldin isnt.

Probably agree with this but both Zeldin & DeSantis contributed to the Republican House Majority.

I had that gut feel Zeldin would crack 30 % in NYC (which he did in the end) and I also had that cautious confidence DeSantis would win Miami-Dade based on the Early Vote and Independents were leaning R in FL this year BUT by no means did I expect DeSantis carrying the Puerto Rican Vote and winning Osceola and come within 6 in Orange County nor did I expect him to win Palm Beach. Those two flips were the icing on the cake.

[Hope For A New Era]

I’m still going to say Phil Scott. There’s being a popular incumbent, then there’s winning one of the most Democratic states in the country by more than the Democratic nominee did in the previous election… as a Republican. Imagine a Democrat winning by more than 43 in Wyoming (I know, this almost happened in 2006.)

Charlie Baker 2018 and Mike Beebe 2010 are good analogies for this.

The more interesting question is who might be the next one of these (other than Phil Scott himself, and also Mark Gordon, whose landslide has attracted strangely little notice).

Burgum or Cox maybe for Rs, not sure for Ds. Maybe Shapiro, if the R candidate in 2026 comes even close to as bad as Mastriano was (which is an achievement in itself). The dreamer in me says Beshear - and it absolutely would be him just a decade ago - but polarization is just too high now, so much so that there's no guarantee he'll even win at all (as LA-GOV 2019 demonstrated).

[Tekken_Guy]

I’m still going to say Phil Scott. There’s being a popular incumbent, then there’s winning one of the most Democratic states in the country by more than the Democratic nominee did in the previous election… as a Republican. Imagine a Democrat winning by more than 43 in Wyoming (I know, this almost happened in 2006.)

Charlie Baker 2018 and Mike Beebe 2010 are good analogies for this.

The more interesting question is who might be the next one of these (other than Phil Scott himself, and also Mark Gordon, whose landslide has attracted strangely little notice).

Burgum or Cox maybe for Rs, not sure for Ds. Maybe Shapiro, if the R candidate in 2026 comes even close to as bad as Mastriano was (which is an achievement in itself). The dreamer in me says Beshear - and it absolutely would be him just a decade ago - but polarization is just too high now, so much so that there's no guarantee he'll even win at all (as LA-GOV 2019 demonstrated).

Burgum, Cox, and Gordon don’t really fit as they are all from the dominant party in their states. Honestly there don’t seem to be any equivalents on the D side here. Maybe Polis?

And re: Beshear, I was fully expecting him to lose prior to the midterms, but now I think he’s a modest favorite.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Zeldin's performance was the most suprising, but it seems like a lot of that was due to Dem incompetence rather than his own Merits.

Scott's margin in VT is genuinely impressive not only because is a deep blue state on the federal level, but also because a Governor getting nearly 70% of the vote is extremely rare, even in a small homogenous state like VT.

[smoltchanov]

Speaking as a mathematician by profession - Phil Scott of course. No one has shown so big overperformance of state baseline... (Trump's 30%). And - show me another candidate, who won every city and town in his/her state.... (even Gordon probably lost some cities in Teton county))))))

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Zeldin's performance was the most suprising, but it seems like a lot of that was due to Dem incompetence rather than his own Merits.

Yep, this. He was far from an ideal candidate to attract the New York moderate liberal, and I don't think he ran a particularly ingenious campaign, but the Democratic Party is so inept in NY and made such horrible choices this election cycle that even they could barely get a win in a state they should be winning by 20 points. And people probably have some notion about crime in the city. It all says much more about the dems than it does Zeldin being some kind of winning choice for the republicans' future.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ron DeSantis is a popular governor in an r-trending state. Lee Zeldin is an election denier who came within a few percent of becoming Governor of New York and almost single handily gave the GOP the house.

[Hope For A New Era]

I’m still going to say Phil Scott. There’s being a popular incumbent, then there’s winning one of the most Democratic states in the country by more than the Democratic nominee did in the previous election… as a Republican. Imagine a Democrat winning by more than 43 in Wyoming (I know, this almost happened in 2006.)

Charlie Baker 2018 and Mike Beebe 2010 are good analogies for this.

The more interesting question is who might be the next one of these (other than Phil Scott himself, and also Mark Gordon, whose landslide has attracted strangely little notice).

Burgum or Cox maybe for Rs, not sure for Ds. Maybe Shapiro, if the R candidate in 2026 comes even close to as bad as Mastriano was (which is an achievement in itself). The dreamer in me says Beshear - and it absolutely would be him just a decade ago - but polarization is just too high now, so much so that there's no guarantee he'll even win at all (as LA-GOV 2019 demonstrated).

Burgum, Cox, and Gordon don’t really fit as they are all from the dominant party in their states. Honestly there don’t seem to be any equivalents on the D side here. Maybe Polis?

And re: Beshear, I was fully expecting him to lose prior to the midterms, but now I think he’s a modest favorite.

Sorry, I seem to have drifted the topic a little bit in that post. I was referring to who the next governor to win a massive all-county-sweep (or nearly all) landslide reelection would be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Zeldin's performance was the most suprising, but it seems like a lot of that was due to Dem incompetence rather than his own Merits.

Yep, this. He was far from an ideal candidate to attract the New York moderate liberal, and I don't think he ran a particularly ingenious campaign, but the Democratic Party is so inept in NY and made such horrible choices this election cycle that even they could barely get a win in a state they should be winning by 20 points. And people probably have some notion about crime in the city. It all says much more about the dems than it does Zeldin being some kind of winning choice for the republicans' future.

Zeldin did not make any effort to distance himself from national Rs, even if he did try to brand himself in a "nicer" way or go into communities Rs usually don't go to. At the end of the day, New York voted for Biden by 23% so even if favorable turnout dynamics, you have to peel off left-leaning Independents who generally or almost always vote D, and it seems like that's what Zeldin forgot. I feel like he ran as if NY was a usual swing state.

[Annatar]

Zeldin, though if he had outperformed house Republicans in NY by the same margin Shapiro outran dems by in PA, he would have won. Its interesting that both Whitmer and Shapiro got a lot of crossover vote whereas Desantis & Zeldin were in states that just shifted Republican, this is how much their margin exceeded their party's congressional vote from Split Ticket's estimate of the vote in each state adjusted for uncontested seats.

Shapiro: 15.5%
Whitmer: 8.2%
Zeldin: 5%
Desantis: 3%

[JMT]

I agree with folks here that it’s probably either DeSantis, Zeldin, or Phil Scott. That said, I think honorable mention goes to Joe Lombardo in Nevada. It wasn’t a landslide victory, but it’s noteworthy that he was the only candidate to flip a governorship from blue to red this cycle, and he did so by defeating an incumbent (which doesn’t happen often in Gubernatorial races). And he did this in a year that was more favorable to Democrats than expected.

[wbrocks67]

Scott had the most electorally impressive for a blue state, but he's a bit of anomoly.

Zeldin would be my pick. Like others have said, it was more about Dem underperformance than him overperforming, but at the same time, Dems did a terrible job at making people know how far right Zeldin was. There's no reason an election denier and anti-abortion R should've gotten anywhere close to 47% in New York.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Scott had the most electorally impressive for a blue state, but he's a bit of anomoly.

Zeldin would be my pick. Like others have said, it was more about Dem underperformance than him overperforming, but at the same time, Dems did a terrible job at making people know how far right Zeldin was. There's no reason an election denier and anti-abortion R should've gotten anywhere close to 47% in New York.

There are 100M females and 100M minorities and 100M white men and the white females vote D in blue states and R in red states that's why Rubio won by 20 and Vance won by 6 but in 24 white females are more likely to vote D even in red states because it's higher Turnout, that's why Brown has a better chance and Beshear than Ryan Incumbency, but no questions asked Scott and SUNUNU have a hanner lock on White females, but Cooper and Josh Stein and Andy Beshear in red states have the white female vote