Texas 2022 megathread

[2016]

Last two Texas Governor Elections

2018
Greg Abbott (R) 4,656,156 - 55.8 %
Lupe Valdez (D) 3,546,590 - 42.5 %

Difference: 1,109,566

2022 [Unofficial Results]

Greg Abbott (R) 4,427,345 - 54.8 %
Beto O'Rourke (D) 3,545,032 - 43.8 %

Difference: 882,313

2020 Presidential Race

Donald J. Trump (R) 5,890,347 - 52.1 %
Joseph R. Biden (D) 5,259,126 - 46.5 %

Difference: 631,221

And yet some liberal Atlas Tards have that PIPE-DREAM they can turn Texas Blue if Trump is the Nominee in 2024. Not happening! Where do you find 600K+ extra Votes? Please explain?

My Prediction: Texas stays RED even if Trump is the Nominee.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Last two Texas Governor Elections

2018
Greg Abbott (R) 4,656,156 - 55.8 %
Lupe Valdez (D) 3,546,590 - 42.5 %

Difference: 1,109,566

2022 [Unofficial Results]

Greg Abbott (R) 4,427,345 - 54.8 %
Beto O'Rourke (D) 3,545,032 - 43.8 %

Difference: 882,313

2020 Presidential Race

Donald J. Trump (R) 5,890,347 - 52.1 %
Joseph R. Biden (D) 5,259,126 - 46.5 %

Difference: 631,221

And yet some liberal Atlas Tards have that PIPE-DREAM they can turn Texas Blue if Trump is the Nominee in 2024. Not happening! Where do you find 600K+ extra Votes? Please explain?

My Prediction: Texas stays RED even if Trump is the Nominee.

Interesting that you ignored Senate 2018 because it doesn't fit your narrative,

2018

Ted Cruz (R) 4,260,553 - 50.9%
Beto O'Rourke (D) 4,045,632 - 48.3%

There you go, if we can get those voters out then we only need 200k, not 600k.

Am I saying it's even remotely likely? Nah, I think Texas would still probably go for Trump by around or under 5 points, but I also think Trump is far more comparable to Cruz in terms of divisiveness than Abbott.

[2016]

Last two Texas Governor Elections

2018
Greg Abbott (R) 4,656,156 - 55.8 %
Lupe Valdez (D) 3,546,590 - 42.5 %

Difference: 1,109,566

2022 [Unofficial Results]

Greg Abbott (R) 4,427,345 - 54.8 %
Beto O'Rourke (D) 3,545,032 - 43.8 %

Difference: 882,313

2020 Presidential Race

Donald J. Trump (R) 5,890,347 - 52.1 %
Joseph R. Biden (D) 5,259,126 - 46.5 %

Difference: 631,221

And yet some liberal Atlas Tards have that PIPE-DREAM they can turn Texas Blue if Trump is the Nominee in 2024. Not happening! Where do you find 600K+ extra Votes? Please explain?

My Prediction: Texas stays RED even if Trump is the Nominee.

Interesting that you ignored Senate 2018 because it doesn't fit your narrative,

2018

Ted Cruz (R) 4,260,553 - 50.9%
Beto O'Rourke (D) 4,045,632 - 48.3%

There you go, if we can get those voters out then we only need 200k, not 600k.

Am I saying it's even remotely likely? Nah, I think Texas would still probably go for Trump by around or under 5 points, but I also think Trump is far more comparable to Cruz in terms of divisiveness than Abbott.

Joe Biden is no Beto O'Rourke.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is vulnerable in 24, Biden is leading Trump 51(49 and he is the nominee until he isn't, but Ds don't have a candidate yet so John Love is an alternative but Inflation won't be 7% in 24

[Mr. Smith]

Last two Texas Governor Elections

2018
Greg Abbott (R) 4,656,156 - 55.8 %
Lupe Valdez (D) 3,546,590 - 42.5 %

Difference: 1,109,566

2022 [Unofficial Results]

Greg Abbott (R) 4,427,345 - 54.8 %
Beto O'Rourke (D) 3,545,032 - 43.8 %

Difference: 882,313

2020 Presidential Race

Donald J. Trump (R) 5,890,347 - 52.1 %
Joseph R. Biden (D) 5,259,126 - 46.5 %

Difference: 631,221

And yet some liberal Atlas Tards have that PIPE-DREAM they can turn Texas Blue if Trump is the Nominee in 2024. Not happening! Where do you find 600K+ extra Votes? Please explain?

My Prediction: Texas stays RED even if Trump is the Nominee.

Interesting that you ignored Senate 2018 because it doesn't fit your narrative,

2018

Ted Cruz (R) 4,260,553 - 50.9%
Beto O'Rourke (D) 4,045,632 - 48.3%

There you go, if we can get those voters out then we only need 200k, not 600k.

Am I saying it's even remotely likely? Nah, I think Texas would still probably go for Trump by around or under 5 points, but I also think Trump is far more comparable to Cruz in terms of divisiveness than Abbott.

Joe Biden is no Beto O'Rourke.

  Trump is no Abbott.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think what is most interesting is looking at the NYT swing maps, Abbotts biggest gains over Trump was almost exclusively in rural areas which is def not what I was expecting. This prolly has to do with Beto just being toxic for these areas.

In most of the cities though, he only barely outran Trump 2020 and in Travis County (Austin) he did outright worse.

[lfromnj]

Honestly overall it feels like a very strong repeat of the 2014 TX gubernatorial election. An election that borderline gets the loser laughed out of politics but when you look at it closer it shows a bad trend for TX R's.  Most of the swing is probably explained by lower minority turnout. Most suburban areas barely swung towards Abbot at all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think what is most interesting is looking at the NYT swing maps, Abbotts biggest gains over Trump was almost exclusively in rural areas which is def not what I was expecting. This prolly has to do with Beto just being toxic for these areas.

In most of the cities though, he only barely outran Trump 2020 and in Travis County (Austin) he did outright worse.

Which begs the question of how much "hell yeah I'd take your AR-15s" hurt him electorally.

[Real Texan Politics]

I think what is most interesting is looking at the NYT swing maps, Abbotts biggest gains over Trump was almost exclusively in rural areas which is def not what I was expecting. This prolly has to do with Beto just being toxic for these areas.

In most of the cities though, he only barely outran Trump 2020 and in Travis County (Austin) he did outright worse.

Which begs the question of how much "hell yeah I'd take your AR-15s" hurt him electorally.

Really just the rurals, but maybe a small bit in some suburbs too. Collin seemed to have a decent rightward shift.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think what is most interesting is looking at the NYT swing maps, Abbotts biggest gains over Trump was almost exclusively in rural areas which is def not what I was expecting. This prolly has to do with Beto just being toxic for these areas.

In most of the cities though, he only barely outran Trump 2020 and in Travis County (Austin) he did outright worse.

Which begs the question of how much "hell yeah I'd take your AR-15s" hurt him electorally.

Really just the rurals, but maybe a small bit in some suburbs too. Collin seemed to have a decent rightward shift.

I'm not entirely sure what caused the suburban shift. Perhaps Republican messaging about inflation cut through there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think what is most interesting is looking at the NYT swing maps, Abbotts biggest gains over Trump was almost exclusively in rural areas which is def not what I was expecting. This prolly has to do with Beto just being toxic for these areas.

In most of the cities though, he only barely outran Trump 2020 and in Travis County (Austin) he did outright worse.

Which begs the question of how much "hell yeah I'd take your AR-15s" hurt him electorally.

Really just the rurals, but maybe a small bit in some suburbs too. Collin seemed to have a decent rightward shift.

I'm not entirely sure what caused the suburban shift. Perhaps Republican messaging about inflation cut through there.

This landslide isn't gonna happen again as well as in OH and FL because of cheap gas but was it an incumbent Eday yes it was, TX is a R +7 and FL is R +3 and OH R+5, if Eday were held today not Nov with gas Prices going down Ryan clearly would of made up 5 pts because DeSantis is projected to win OH by 5 now not on Eday which can change, and move more favorable to Ds because imminent indictment of Trump

[Real Texan Politics]

I think what is most interesting is looking at the NYT swing maps, Abbotts biggest gains over Trump was almost exclusively in rural areas which is def not what I was expecting. This prolly has to do with Beto just being toxic for these areas.

In most of the cities though, he only barely outran Trump 2020 and in Travis County (Austin) he did outright worse.

Which begs the question of how much "hell yeah I'd take your AR-15s" hurt him electorally.

Really just the rurals, but maybe a small bit in some suburbs too. Collin seemed to have a decent rightward shift.

I'm not entirely sure what caused the suburban shift. Perhaps Republican messaging about inflation cut through there.

Probably so, although not being named Donald J. Trump may have helped quite a bit too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

R polls were heavily inflated in 22 look what happened to Walker in the Recall he underpolls and look at Victory poll I'm FL now that shows DeSantis only winning by 6 why is R polls going down because of cheap gas and TX is an oil state too

DeSantis was always at 45% in Approvals outside of FL due to Prez Tracking it was IAN and Little Havana Rubio that saved him, his polls weren't inflated when he ran with Scott