Texas 2022 megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just got back from the polling booths with two friends, both first time voters.

It was an hour to polls closed and there was pretty decent foot traffic, which I was glad to see.

What was the weather like? We had a pretty big storm over large parts of the state just hours earlier.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Just got back from the polling booths with two friends, both first time voters.

It was an hour to polls closed and there was pretty decent foot traffic, which I was glad to see.

What was the weather like? We had a pretty big storm over large parts of the state just hours earlier.

Overcast but other than that, it was fine. It was storming pretty bad earlier but the lady told me they've been having plenty of people come in, even with the rain.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just got back from the polling booths with two friends, both first time voters.

It was an hour to polls closed and there was pretty decent foot traffic, which I was glad to see.

What was the weather like? We had a pretty big storm over large parts of the state just hours earlier.

Overcast but other than that, it was fine. It was storming pretty bad earlier but the lady told me they've been having plenty of people come in, even with the rain.

Ah. Nice to hear!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone have any updates on the State House/State Senate? Obviously both chambers are Safe R, and there are very few competative seats because of Rs gerrymander.

In the State Senate, my understanding is the only competitive seats are a few of the border seats which Republicans were unable to draw out due to not wanting to risk VRA. Unlike the congressional map, all 5 border seats went to Biden by varying degrees, and one (SD-21) literally reaches up into Austin.

In the State House, the fact that CN Analysis only has 3 seats rated as Lean or less in either favor is insane. It's also kinda insane that pretty much no matter what Dems should stay above 60 seats in the State House barring some massive suprise.

[NOVA Green]

Abbot a UT graduate was cheared at an A&M game when he came on the field. Make of that what you will

What year was that?

I remember back when I lived in Tejas, there was a HUGE deal about Texas A&M joining the SEC, so some of the traditional football rivalry might well have dissipated by now.

Also Texas A&M has long been considered a relatively "conservative" University in Tejas over the years, especially with their whole military tradition thing.

Not sure if Abbot being cheered at a Texas A&M game is necessarily indicative of college and university student voters in Texas...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Abbot a UT graduate was cheared at an A&M game when he came on the field. Make of that what you will

What year was that?

I remember back when I lived in Tejas, there was a HUGE deal about Texas A&M joining the SEC, so some of the traditional football rivalry might well have dissipated by now.

Also Texas A&M has long been considered a relatively "conservative" University in Tejas over the years, especially with their whole military tradition thing.

Not sure if Abbot being cheered at a Texas A&M game is necessarily indicative of college and university student voters in Texas...

There's basically two "college student" voter blocks in Texas. The first is Christian Baptist and/or evangelical, the latter is...everyone else. The former is profoundly Republican and has contributed to A&M having a deservedly conservative reputation.

Student transplants are much likelier to not be plugged into this conservative southern Christian culture and so might vote differently.

[NOVA Green]

Abbot a UT graduate was cheared at an A&M game when he came on the field. Make of that what you will

What year was that?

I remember back when I lived in Tejas, there was a HUGE deal about Texas A&M joining the SEC, so some of the traditional football rivalry might well have dissipated by now.

Also Texas A&M has long been considered a relatively "conservative" University in Tejas over the years, especially with their whole military tradition thing.

Not sure if Abbot being cheered at a Texas A&M game is necessarily indicative of college and university student voters in Texas...

There's basically two "college student" voter blocks in Texas. The first is Christian Baptist and/or evangelical, the latter is...everyone else. The former is profoundly Republican and has contributed to A&M having a deservedly conservative reputation.

Student transplants are much likelier to not be plugged into this conservative southern Christian culture and so might vote differently.

Sounds straight legit street cred from back in late '12 and early '13 in Houston, Texas...

Guy called "Perry" (Names changed to protect the innocent and all that), was a TX A & M grad from a few miles down the road, worked in the same subcontract gig as I did in a major tech / manufacturing industry in metro H-Town.

Still, believe I ran some student precinct numbers from Texas A&M back in '16 and or '20.

Extreme Republican challenged me on a few of my campus precinct numbers way back in the dayz (Thinking likely around the '16 GE-PRES results from college precincts somewhere in Louisiana?

Bit tipsy and not on my immediate fingertips, but pretty sure I ran a precinct map with % numbers from College Station within something like the past 5-7 years.

Seemed pretty clear that DEMs won the undergrad and student dorm vote if I recall, will need to double check.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This will surely flip if Ds win the H barring that it won't flip but of course we have no idea what's gonna happen

It's certainly possible we win the H because Beto is down 51/44 closer than Crist and polls underestimate poor people voted they say Rs have the edge on the Economy and they give massive tax cuts to the rich that's not poor people answering those questions

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Abbot a UT graduate was cheared at an A&M game when he came on the field. Make of that what you will

What year was that?

I remember back when I lived in Tejas, there was a HUGE deal about Texas A&M joining the SEC, so some of the traditional football rivalry might well have dissipated by now.

Also Texas A&M has long been considered a relatively "conservative" University in Tejas over the years, especially with their whole military tradition thing.

Not sure if Abbot being cheered at a Texas A&M game is necessarily indicative of college and university student voters in Texas...

Well I was at the game, so 2022. Though the demographic of college football fan is clearly more conservative than the actual student body, just found it a bit ironic given the historical rivalry.

Honestly the conservative reputation here is a bit overblown and fading, it's still conservative by the standards of a public universety but I wouldn't be suprised if the student precints had another 20% left swing this year.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Abbot a UT graduate was cheared at an A&M game when he came on the field. Make of that what you will

What year was that?

I remember back when I lived in Tejas, there was a HUGE deal about Texas A&M joining the SEC, so some of the traditional football rivalry might well have dissipated by now.

Also Texas A&M has long been considered a relatively "conservative" University in Tejas over the years, especially with their whole military tradition thing.

Not sure if Abbot being cheered at a Texas A&M game is necessarily indicative of college and university student voters in Texas...

There's basically two "college student" voter blocks in Texas. The first is Christian Baptist and/or evangelical, the latter is...everyone else. The former is profoundly Republican and has contributed to A&M having a deservedly conservative reputation.

Student transplants are much likelier to not be plugged into this conservative southern Christian culture and so might vote differently.

Sounds straight legit street cred from back in late '12 and early '13 in Houston, Texas...

Guy called "Perry" (Names changed to protect the innocent and all that), was a TX A & M grad from a few miles down the road, worked in the same subcontract gig as I did in a major tech / manufacturing industry in metro H-Town.

Still, believe I ran some student precinct numbers from Texas A&M back in '16 and or '20.

Extreme Republican challenged me on a few of my campus precinct numbers way back in the dayz (Thinking likely around the '16 GE-PRES results from college precincts somewhere in Louisiana?

Bit tipsy and not on my immediate fingertips, but pretty sure I ran a precinct map with % numbers from College Station within something like the past 5-7 years.

Seemed pretty clear that DEMs won the undergrad and student dorm vote if I recall, will need to double check.

I did that, campus precints and student housing close to campus is all democrat but not overwhelimingly so. The suburbs of Cstat are much redder and so is the surrounding community. Biden did flip Bryan though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, this is Over for Beto

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/reliable-blocs-dems-count-didn-160334873.html

Ds didn't turnout that much for Beto

[NOVA Green]

Abbot a UT graduate was cheared at an A&M game when he came on the field. Make of that what you will

What year was that?

I remember back when I lived in Tejas, there was a HUGE deal about Texas A&M joining the SEC, so some of the traditional football rivalry might well have dissipated by now.

Also Texas A&M has long been considered a relatively "conservative" University in Tejas over the years, especially with their whole military tradition thing.

Not sure if Abbot being cheered at a Texas A&M game is necessarily indicative of college and university student voters in Texas...

There's basically two "college student" voter blocks in Texas. The first is Christian Baptist and/or evangelical, the latter is...everyone else. The former is profoundly Republican and has contributed to A&M having a deservedly conservative reputation.

Student transplants are much likelier to not be plugged into this conservative southern Christian culture and so might vote differently.

Sounds straight legit street cred from back in late '12 and early '13 in Houston, Texas...

Guy called "Perry" (Names changed to protect the innocent and all that), was a TX A & M grad from a few miles down the road, worked in the same subcontract gig as I did in a major tech / manufacturing industry in metro H-Town.

Still, believe I ran some student precinct numbers from Texas A&M back in '16 and or '20.

Extreme Republican challenged me on a few of my campus precinct numbers way back in the dayz (Thinking likely around the '16 GE-PRES results from college precincts somewhere in Louisiana?

Bit tipsy and not on my immediate fingertips, but pretty sure I ran a precinct map with % numbers from College Station within something like the past 5-7 years.

Seemed pretty clear that DEMs won the undergrad and student dorm vote if I recall, will need to double check.

I did that, campus precints and student housing close to campus is all democrat but not overwhelimingly so. The suburbs of Cstat are much redder and so is the surrounding community. Biden did flip Bryan though.

So went back and pulled up some numbers which I ran from the 2016 GE-PRES election which was a thread I created about "How did Division 1-A Football Cities Vote in 2016?"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5854458#msg5854458

Now for the 2020 GE-PRES election, I started a similar thread, which I didn't really continue to fruition, but it does appear that I did run the numbers from College Station in a few brief posts...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=414071.msg7897313#msg7897313

Anybody want to contribute the "Division 1-A football cities in the 2020 PRES-GE" this would be the place to add your contributions!!!

Will need to dig back into my Excel spreadsheets to run the numbers further...

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Well, disappointed to see that Beto couldn't hold his 2018 margins in DFW, though I suppose that was unlikely. Definitely didn't see the organizational strength from his campaign that Republicans had in my area, despite the energetic rallies, so Democrats in Texas really need to go back to the drawing board as far as our ground game is concerned imo.

[Adam Griffin]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My prediction of Abbott ending up in something like 5 or so points flopped huge here. The outcome is not  surprising, but the margin is.

[Adem 45]

Did Hegar win Fort Bend? Or is there still vote to be counted?

Overall a very good night for the Texas GOP.

Minus losing those two congressional seats which were apparently a longshot anyway.

[Schiff for Senate]

Just wanted to point out something irrelevant but still interesting...Beto managed just 1.6% of the vote in Roberts County, the nation's reddest. He won 7 votes - just two more than the 5 votes some random independent managed. In the Attorney General Race, the Democrat managed 1.8% (8 votes) - better than O'Rourke - but she still tied for third place with some random independent candidate. For whatever reason the Democratic candidate for Lt. Gov. actually did comparatively "well", receiving a full 6.2% of the vote (lol). He won 27 votes - nearly 4 times as many as Beto did.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Well, disappointed to see that Beto couldn't hold his 2018 margins in DFW, though I suppose that was unlikely. Definitely didn't see the organizational strength from his campaign that Republicans had in my area, despite the energetic rallies, so Democrats in Texas really need to go back to the drawing board as far as our ground game is concerned imo.

I know the data they gave me was pretty bad, I was supposed to be doing democratic GOTV but I was mostly knocking on republican doors.

[ottermax]

Why did Abbott overperform so much in rural Texas?

Also where do Democrats go from here in Texas? It looks like urban areas give more promise and the border regions didn't collapse but also didn't return entirely to their previous levels.

[Frodo]

If Democrats need a big name to replace Beto O'Rourke who seems to have flamed out (finally), may I suggest trying to recruit the actor Matthew McConaughey as the new standard bearer?  We should get him to run against either Senator Ted Cruz in 2024, or run for governor in 2026.   

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Republicans narrowly expanded their majorities in both chambers but also underperformed in some seats, much like everywhere else. Not too bad considering how badly some of these Democrats were hurt with the new boundaries and everything else.

Should also be noted that Texas sent Muslims and openly gay black men to the legislature for the first time.

[2016]

Exit Polls showed Governor Abbott winning 40 % of the Hispanic Vote. Abbott also had a 55/45 Job Approval in the State.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/texas-governor-results
Democrats may think twice now contesting Texas in 2024.

The Party ID in Texas in 2022 was:
R - 41
D - 30
I - 29

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Exit Polls showed Governor Abbott winning 40 % of the Hispanic Vote. Abbott also had a 55/45 Job Approval in the State.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/texas-governor-results
Democrats may think twice now contesting Texas in 2024.

The Party ID in Texas in 2022 was:
R - 41
D - 30
I - 29

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

What happened to your 237 RH Sabato troll prediction it's down to 22o/215 the same majority Ds has ha not enough for impeachment

Ryan and Beasley and Barnes were the ones that didn't want Biden help that was their decision he was never at IPSOS 39/57 Approvals

Biden campaign for Fetterman and Hobbs and they won

Trafalgar had Lake winning ha she is losing

[2016]

Biden JOB APPROVALS per Exits:
Texas 40/58
North Carolina 43/56
Ohio 41/58
Wisconsin 46/54
Pennsylvania 46/53

Those are just a few. Biden had a negative Job Approval in every single Swing State in 2022.