Texas 2022 megathread
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Poll
Question: Current gubernatorial rating?
#1
Safe R
 
#2
Likely R
 
#3
Lean R
 
#4
Tossup/tilt R
 
#5
Tossup/tilt D
 
#6
Lean D
 
#7
Likely D
 
#8
Safe D
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 245

Author Topic: Texas 2022 megathread  (Read 62380 times)
Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« on: January 28, 2021, 02:01:35 PM »
« edited: March 24, 2022, 02:33:03 PM by Lone Star Politics »

UPDATE: This thread is now for ALL statewide/local races in Texas, just to keep this thread more active and erase the need for additional threads for smaller races. The poll will remain for the gubernatorial race as that is the big one for this year.

So we don't have a whole bunch of threads for each candidate running, I may as well make one massive general megathread for the Lone Star State.

So we know Abbott's running for re-election to a third term, and he's probably the clear favorite to win the election for right now despite some potential major or moderate primary challengers due to Abbott's pandemic response.

We've also just heard Beto O'Rourke has publicly expressed interest. Despite the gun comments (need I mention?), he's probably still the highest profile democrat likely to run outside maybe the Castro twins. Though my guess is while he may still hold onto his Texas fanbase (or whatever's left of it), he still underperforms his senate margins despite maybe using his same strategy as his senate campaign by visting every county? Because if he does so then Abbott may have to watch out.

Anyways here's the potential/declared candidates for both parties (minus already mentioned Abbott and Beto)...

Republicans: Martin Holsome (former Rusk city councilman), Chad Prather (BlazeTV talk show host and comedian), Christi Craddick (Texas railroad commissioner), Dan Crenshaw (probably one of if not the most famous republican congressman), Glenn Hegar (current Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts), Sid Miller (current Texas agriculture commissioner), Ken Paxton (current Texas attorney general), Joe Straus (current speaker of the Texas house), and Allen West (Texas republican party chairman)

Democrats: Colin Allred (TX-32 representative), Joaquin and Julian Castro (Joaquin's the representative for TX-20, and Julian's the former HUD secretary under Obama and former mayor of San Antonio, and can't forget about his failed presidential run), Wendy Davis (former state senator and perennial candidate for governor and representative of TX-21), MJ Hegar (Cornyn's opponent in 2020), Eric Johnson (current mayor of Dallas), Jose Menendez (state senator), Beverly Powell (state senator), Mike Rawlings (former Dallas mayor and former CEO of Pizza Hut), and Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez (candidate in the democratic primary for senator which Hegar won)

As for independents, Matthew McConaughey (if he runs) has the potential to be a spoiler candidate due to his popularity in the state.

My predicted matchup: Greg Abbott (R) vs Beto O’Rourke (D). McConaughey will probably just endorse Beto if Beto ends up running.

My rating prediction: Likely R for now
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2021, 09:55:40 PM »

I’m going with Safe R. Even if Beto was as strong a candidate as he was in 2018, this is still a Republican midterm so he wouldn’t do as well as he did in his Senate race (which was in a D wave).
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MargieCat
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2021, 10:01:04 PM »

In the 2018 senate race, Cruz defeated Beto by 2.6% percentage points.

In the 2018 governors race, Abbott defeat Valdez by 13.3 percentage points.

I expect Abbott to win in 2022 by around 10 percentage points.

It's probably not worth contesting heavily.

Now Paxton and Patrick are a different story.
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Astatine
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2021, 10:33:31 PM »

Likely R out of caution, but much closer to Safe than Lean.
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2021, 10:41:23 PM »

In the 2018 senate race, Cruz defeated Beto by 2.6% percentage points.

In the 2018 governors race, Abbott defeat Valdez by 13.3 percentage points.

I expect Abbott to win in 2022 by around 10 percentage points.

It's probably not worth contesting heavily.

Now Paxton and Patrick are a different story.

Who may be the best democrats to beat Paxton and Patrick? I definitely see those races being extremely tight, likely to the point of flipping.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2021, 11:03:10 PM »

In the 2018 senate race, Cruz defeated Beto by 2.6% percentage points.

In the 2018 governors race, Abbott defeat Valdez by 13.3 percentage points.

I expect Abbott to win in 2022 by around 10 percentage points.

It's probably not worth contesting heavily.

Now Paxton and Patrick are a different story.

Who may be the best democrats to beat Paxton and Patrick? I definitely see those races being extremely tight, likely to the point of flipping.
I'm hearing a lot about a former mayor of Galveston, Joe Jaworski, challenging Paxton.

Never heard of him before.

Not sure who is running for lieutenant governor.
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2021, 11:10:26 PM »

In the 2018 senate race, Cruz defeated Beto by 2.6% percentage points.

In the 2018 governors race, Abbott defeat Valdez by 13.3 percentage points.

I expect Abbott to win in 2022 by around 10 percentage points.

It's probably not worth contesting heavily.

Now Paxton and Patrick are a different story.

Who may be the best democrats to beat Paxton and Patrick? I definitely see those races being extremely tight, likely to the point of flipping.
I'm hearing a lot about a former mayor of Galveston, Joe Jaworski, challenging Paxton.

Never heard of him before.

Not sure who is running for lieutenant governor.

I've heard George P. Bush is a potential candidate for attorney general.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2021, 12:12:51 AM »

Safe R, D's would be best off, contesting FL by endorsing like they did in 2014  former R Jolly as they did Crist to beat DeSantis.

The same in 2024 if Cruz runs for Prez Crenshaw is gonna get it, D's are best off to run against Rick Scott.

That's why so many D's are declining to run against Rubio, they can run against Rick Scott
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2021, 03:05:31 PM »

Safe R
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2021, 03:08:01 PM »


Do you think Abbott is a lock in the primary? I used to, but am not so sure after COVID-19.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2021, 04:08:32 PM »


Do you think Abbott is a lock in the primary? I used to, but am not so sure after COVID-19.
I think he is.

He has a primary challenge from Chad Prather and maybe someone like Allen West will run against him.

Ultimately, he will win the primary.
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #11 on: January 29, 2021, 04:11:09 PM »


Do you think Abbott is a lock in the primary? I used to, but am not so sure after COVID-19.
I still feel he's a lock. If Hutchinson couldn't break 40% if I recall against Perry, no one is breaking Abbott
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #12 on: January 29, 2021, 05:03:39 PM »

Likely R because caution.
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2021, 09:29:56 PM »

So with all the snowstorms and blackouts that ravaged Texas over the last few days, this will certainly have no impact on any and all statewide and local races, right??

R..r..right?
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AGA
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« Reply #14 on: February 17, 2021, 10:52:39 PM »

Safe R. It's not there yet.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2021, 09:00:59 PM »

I'm just praying Alex Jones will run as a primary challenge to Abbott. A man can dream...
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The Houstonian
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« Reply #16 on: February 18, 2021, 11:39:29 PM »

TX Dems should prioritize the LTG and AG races over this one.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2021, 09:10:35 AM »


Given the 2020 results, Texas doesn't seem to be trending leftward very much. Democrats still have further to fall with Hispanics.

I do agree that this race is Safe R. Abbott could literally be the mastermind behind COVID and still win easily.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #18 on: February 19, 2021, 09:42:46 PM »


Given the 2020 results, Texas doesn't seem to be trending leftward very much. Democrats still have further to fall with Hispanics.

I do agree that this race is Safe R. Abbott could literally be the mastermind behind COVID and still win easily.

Well if Texans don't care how bad their leadership is as long as there's an (R) next to their name then I guess that's why they're in the current problem they're in.  Meanwhile (D) states with (R) governors like MA, MD, etc. are doing better than ever.
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #19 on: February 27, 2021, 01:01:42 AM »
« Edited: February 27, 2021, 02:06:54 AM by Tucker/DeSantis 2024 »

May regret this later on but I moved my rating down from likely R to lean R due to Abbott's vulnerability after the power crisis and winter storm, and that's especially with Beto as the nominee (which he may as well be the presumptive nominee at this point). Yes the gun comments may still haunt Beto in attack ads, but they may not do as much damage as others may claim. My prediction goes from R+9 down to R+4-5. As said previously though, there's a high chance I could be underestimating Abbott and he ends up winning by like 7 or 8.

By comparison, 2014 was Abbott +20, and 2018 was Abbott +12 (and that was even with Beto on the same ballot for senate). Though that may be a bad comparison since I imagine those were separate wave years.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #20 on: February 27, 2021, 03:59:50 AM »
« Edited: February 27, 2021, 04:04:19 AM by Frenchrepublican »

May regret this later on but I moved my rating down from likely R to lean R due to Abbott's vulnerability after the power crisis and winter storm, and that's especially with Beto as the nominee (which he may as well be the presumptive nominee at this point). Yes the gun comments may still haunt Beto in attack ads, but they may not do as much damage as others may claim. My prediction goes from R+9 down to R+4-5. As said previously though, there's a high chance I could be underestimating Abbott and he ends up winning by like 7 or 8.

By comparison, 2014 was Abbott +20, and 2018 was Abbott +12 (and that was even with Beto on the same ballot for senate). Though that may be a bad comparison since I imagine those were separate wave years.

Not sure why you are so pessimistic about Greg Abbott and about the TX GOP in general, especially after what happened to TX dems last year.

Abbott approval rate stayed the same despite the power crisis, at least according to the Texas Tribune poll, so his ''vulnerability'' seems to be more a personal opinion than a data based fact.
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/26/joe-biden-texas-coronavirus-poll/

As for O'Rourke, you believe that his positions on guns are not going to hurt him, okay, but it is also a personal opinion, if we look at the few recent polls we have, his favourability rate in TX is down by double digits, he is even less popular than Biden. Also it is not just his comments about guns which are out of touch with Texans, you have also his comments about taxing churches. If democrats want to lose even more ground in South Texas they should go this path.

Abbott is likely going to win reelection by a low to middle double digits margin.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: February 27, 2021, 06:28:40 AM »

The polls are gonna give D's an advantage in the midterms next yr, but TX and FL arent winnable.

The polls will change once we get out of this Recession
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #22 on: February 27, 2021, 03:27:39 PM »

May regret this later on but I moved my rating down from likely R to lean R due to Abbott's vulnerability after the power crisis and winter storm, and that's especially with Beto as the nominee (which he may as well be the presumptive nominee at this point). Yes the gun comments may still haunt Beto in attack ads, but they may not do as much damage as others may claim. My prediction goes from R+9 down to R+4-5. As said previously though, there's a high chance I could be underestimating Abbott and he ends up winning by like 7 or 8.

By comparison, 2014 was Abbott +20, and 2018 was Abbott +12 (and that was even with Beto on the same ballot for senate). Though that may be a bad comparison since I imagine those were separate wave years.

Not sure why you are so pessimistic about Greg Abbott and about the TX GOP in general, especially after what happened to TX dems last year.

Abbott approval rate stayed the same despite the power crisis, at least according to the Texas Tribune poll, so his ''vulnerability'' seems to be more a personal opinion than a data based fact.
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/26/joe-biden-texas-coronavirus-poll/

As for O'Rourke, you believe that his positions on guns are not going to hurt him, okay, but it is also a personal opinion, if we look at the few recent polls we have, his favourability rate in TX is down by double digits, he is even less popular than Biden. Also it is not just his comments about guns which are out of touch with Texans, you have also his comments about taxing churches. If democrats want to lose even more ground in South Texas they should go this path.

Abbott is likely going to win reelection by a low to middle double digits margin.

Yea you’re probably right for the most part. I don’t see Abbott underperforming Trump’s TX numbers, but I do see Abbott underperforming his own 2018 numbers, especially if Beto’s his opponent and with everything that has happened plus him possibly removing the mask mandate for Texas that may or may not cost him a bit of support.

I’d say it’s likely R, but I’d still put it closer to lean than safe. Maybe like Abbott +7 or 8. 7.5 could be a compromise.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #23 on: February 27, 2021, 05:44:03 PM »

Now Paxton and Patrick are a different story.

TX Dems should prioritize the LTG and AG races over this one.

In order to do this, they need someone strong at the top of the ticket though, which makes me think Beto might not be so bad of an idea.

I don't think after stormgate that this race is "unwinnable,"  but I also think Abbott probably can and will repair his reputation by then. It's Likely R for now, right between lean and safe. But what Beto could do is give us a vanity run to boost young and progressive turnout and essentially, paid entirely for by mass amounts of online money (which would force the RNC to spend here and therefore less in races the Dems can win like Georgia), thereby freeing up more state funds and resources to focus on AG and Lt. Gov., probably with much more "gun friendly" candidates.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #24 on: March 01, 2021, 08:49:18 AM »

May regret this later on but I moved my rating down from likely R to lean R due to Abbott's vulnerability after the power crisis and winter storm, and that's especially with Beto as the nominee (which he may as well be the presumptive nominee at this point). Yes the gun comments may still haunt Beto in attack ads, but they may not do as much damage as others may claim. My prediction goes from R+9 down to R+4-5. As said previously though, there's a high chance I could be underestimating Abbott and he ends up winning by like 7 or 8.

By comparison, 2014 was Abbott +20, and 2018 was Abbott +12 (and that was even with Beto on the same ballot for senate). Though that may be a bad comparison since I imagine those were separate wave years.

Not sure why you are so pessimistic about Greg Abbott and about the TX GOP in general, especially after what happened to TX dems last year.

Abbott approval rate stayed the same despite the power crisis, at least according to the Texas Tribune poll, so his ''vulnerability'' seems to be more a personal opinion than a data based fact.
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/26/joe-biden-texas-coronavirus-poll/

As for O'Rourke, you believe that his positions on guns are not going to hurt him, okay, but it is also a personal opinion, if we look at the few recent polls we have, his favourability rate in TX is down by double digits, he is even less popular than Biden. Also it is not just his comments about guns which are out of touch with Texans, you have also his comments about taxing churches. If democrats want to lose even more ground in South Texas they should go this path.

Abbott is likely going to win reelection by a low to middle double digits margin.

Yea you’re probably right for the most part. I don’t see Abbott underperforming Trump’s TX numbers, but I do see Abbott underperforming his own 2018 numbers, especially if Beto’s his opponent and with everything that has happened plus him possibly removing the mask mandate for Texas that may or may not cost him a bit of support.

I’d say it’s likely R, but I’d still put it closer to lean than safe. Maybe like Abbott +7 or 8. 7.5 could be a compromise.

2018 was a D+8 year, keep that in mind when you do your predictions, 2022 is unlikely to be that favourable to democrats, to put it mildly . The difference in terms of climate will likely help Abbott to keep his 2022 winning margin close to his 2018 numbers. Also it is not like if TX had really trended left between 2018 and 2020.
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