Texas 2022 megathread

[Ferguson97]

Safe R.

The state is almost there for Democrats, but Abbot seems popular in the state and it's a midterm with a Democrat in the White House.

[Ferguson97]

I don't think Beto will win in November, but the Republican strategy of treating races that they keep winning by ~5 points as Safe R because "winning by 5 and winning by 25 is the same thing" is eventually going to fail.

[Ferguson97]

Beto doubling down on the Harry Styles endorsement
https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1577483425711276037?s=46&t=5j5OnCL0XS...

The single-issue Harry Styles voters/closeted Republicans aren't that big of a demographic.

No, but celebrity endorsements are not completely meaningless and it could cause an apolitical young woman to turn out instead of staying home.

[Ferguson97]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

[Ferguson97]

https://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/inflation-worries-texas-voters-republican-candidates-most-favored-midterm-elections-univision-news-poll

Choice for governor

Latinos: Beto 58 / Abbott 28

'How well do you think the word 'socialist' describes Biden and the Democrats'

Latinos: Describes well 60 / Does not describe well 40

Texas Latinos, apparently: "The Democrats are socialists and that's a good thing"

[Ferguson97]

I just cannot see Beto winning Hispanics by 30. I don’t even think Hillary Clinton won them by that much (at least in Texas)?

According to NBC, she won Latinos by 27% in Texas (compared to 36% nationwide).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/tx/

[Ferguson97]

I just cannot see Beto winning Hispanics by 30. I don’t even think Hillary Clinton won them by that much (at least in Texas)?

According to NBC, she won Latinos by 27% in Texas (compared to 36% nationwide).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/tx/

Yea, no way Beto overperforms Hillary Clinton of all people with Hispanics. I say he wins them by mid single digits, if he wins then at all.

You think Hispanics will swing over 20%?

Okay, I'll take that bet. I'll say he wins Hispanics by, minimum, 15-20%.

[Ferguson97]

I really think Abbott's victory will come from suburban whites rather than Hispanics, but I guess we'll see

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1587540450763743232

Fantastic ad. It's a shame Abbott will win re-election. He's my 2nd most hated GOP Governor.