Texas 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Good.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1560327487279796226

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Great.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Beto Drawing Large Crowds In Deep Red Texas

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1561125052891901955?s=20&t=fZGoOQMI...
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1561368400462594054?s=20&t=NZBrS9MKD5...
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1560992607152529408?s=20&t=fZGoOQMIsk...

I've never been Beto's biggest fan but I don't think anyone can claim that he doesn't know how to run a great campaign, particularly when he hits his stride when he's being well-received. Putting the doomed Presidential campaign aside I can't deny the mans authenticity and if he weren't in a state as toxic as Texas politically then he'd definitely already be a Senator or Governor.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Beto Drawing Large Crowds In Deep Red Texas

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1561125052891901955?s=20&t=fZGoOQMI...
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1561368400462594054?s=20&t=NZBrS9MKD5...
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1560992607152529408?s=20&t=fZGoOQMIsk...
I've never been Beto's biggest fan but I don't think anyone can claim that he doesn't know how to run a great campaign, particularly when he hits his stride when he's being well-received. Putting the doomed Presidential campaign aside I can't deny the mans authenticity and if he weren't in a state as toxic as Texas politically then he'd definitely already be a Senator or Governor.

Well I think Abbott is also being Cruz-ified now that he's chosen to not remain silent and under the radar like in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the dynamics of this will be interesting. Abbott seems like he really did go under the radar in 2018, whether it be because he was less right-wing extreme back then, or people just didn't care about the race b/c they assumed Valdez would lose. But it certainly feels as if the same thing with Johnson et. al is happening to him a bit, where people are waking up to realize he's not the same candidate they thought he was (or ignorantly thought he was) in the last election cycle.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oh My God...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're not defeating Abbott, Reynolds, DeSantis, Sununu and DeWine forget it. The closest they all got was 6 pts that's it

Our Senate candidates have a better chance in red states

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1560628174169559042?s=20&t=SJIwzCMHdB...
Almost 100+ town halls by Beto vs. not a single campaign stop by Abbott, absolutely shameful. The man literally thinks he can walk into the governorship because of the (R) next to his name.

Guess that's why they (Abbott supporters) have to keep showing up at our rallies, but hey I'll take it...Seems like we're winning a lot of them over.  

[wbrocks67]

Is Abbott even campaigning? It feels like he's doing nothing.

[Real Texan Politics]

Is Abbott even campaigning? It feels like he's doing nothing.

Well he is doing this...
https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1562484436188680194?s=20&t=6EN2B_uT...

[wbrocks67]

Is Abbott even campaigning? It feels like he's doing nothing.

Well he is doing this...
https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1562484436188680194?s=20&t=6EN2B_uT...

Good to see he's not a total ghoul.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He isn't running he is running in Border wall and Security like DeSantis is that's why he is busing immigrants to NY

Beto is polling like HEGAR 6/9 pts behind 46/39 but who knows what will happen D's are more focused on FL than TX

We haven't seen Harris her duties were protect the border but she has been missing because CA her home state has immigrants

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

/tweet
Almost 100+ town halls by Beto vs. not a single campaign stop by Abbott, absolutely shameful. The man literally thinks he can walk into the governorship because of the (R) next to his name.

To be fair, so does practically everyone in this thread.

I'm glad Beto is putting up a hell of a fight though. Just because everyone sees it as a forgone conclusion doesn't mean you should just roll over and give up. I don't know if I'd have predicted a year or two ago that Beto would have a more competitive race than Abrams, but that might end up being the case.

Also, I see this November as a fun anecdotal test of whether TX or FL will be more interesting to follow in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz won't lose in TX in 24 or if he runs for Prez Crenshaw is gonna run for TX and FL if Crist or Demings win Gwen Graham will run against Scott

Crenshaw definitely want to run for Sen if Cornyn or Cruz retire

Bill Nelson already was Senator from FL we have a better chance of beating DeSantis

He only won by 1500o votes

Actually we have a better chance of flipping OH than TX DeWine isn't beating Nan W by 20 pts with OH Senate only 5 pts

Lake showed the Gov race a tie we need someone else to poll OH

[ProgressiveModerate]

/tweet
Almost 100+ town halls by Beto vs. not a single campaign stop by Abbott, absolutely shameful. The man literally thinks he can walk into the governorship because of the (R) next to his name.

To be fair, so does practically everyone in this thread.

I'm glad Beto is putting up a hell of a fight though. Just because everyone sees it as a forgone conclusion doesn't mean you should just roll over and give up. I don't know if I'd have predicted a year or two ago that Beto would have a more competitive race than Abrams, but that might end up being the case.

Also, I see this November as a fun anecdotal test of whether TX or FL will be more interesting to follow in 2024.

Honestly Beto has done a good enough job for me to consider the race Likely and not Safe (like I had initially assumed. Dems def have the theoretical votes to win TX but practically that doesn't happen and even if Beto runs a good campaign it seems unlikely 2022 would be the year it does.

[Adam Griffin]

What? Are they forcing Abbott to wheel himself from town to town? Otherwise, what's his excuse?

Guessing he thinks that by ignoring the campaign, he can keep from legitimizing any opposition momentum. I don't know if that's going to work as well against a candidate like Beto as it would against the others he has faced...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

/tweet
Almost 100+ town halls by Beto vs. not a single campaign stop by Abbott, absolutely shameful. The man literally thinks he can walk into the governorship because of the (R) next to his name.

To be fair, so does practically everyone in this thread.

I'm glad Beto is putting up a hell of a fight though. Just because everyone sees it as a forgone conclusion doesn't mean you should just roll over and give up. I don't know if I'd have predicted a year or two ago that Beto would have a more competitive race than Abrams, but that might end up being the case.

Also, I see this November as a fun anecdotal test of whether TX or FL will be more interesting to follow in 2024.

Honestly Beto has done a good enough job for me to consider the race Likely and not Safe (like I had initially assumed. Dems def have the theoretical votes to win TX but practically that doesn't happen and even if Beto runs a good campaign it seems unlikely 2022 would be the year it does.

You don't know what's gonna happen EDay, you have have an R nut map

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

[2016]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

I fall over my Chair if we lose TX or FL. Even if it's only a neutral Environment this year Republicans should win these States.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

I fall over my Chair if we lose TX or FL. Even if it's only a neutral Environment this year Republicans should win these States.

Not just win, but easily win them. If either of them are within 5 points then Rs are in deep trouble.

[wbrocks67]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

Because the Texas of 2022 isn't the Texas of the 90s? It's still a lean R state but it's not some conservative bastion anymore and "swing voters" actually care about gun control measures.

[2016]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

I fall over my Chair if we lose TX or FL. Even if it's only a neutral Environment this year Republicans should win these States.

Not just win, but easily win them. If either of them are within 5 points then Rs are in deep trouble.

Texas & Florida going into opposite Directions. Texas is moving towards the Democrats while Florida is moving more towards Republicans.

[2016]

Cruz won't lose in TX in 24 or if he runs for Prez Crenshaw is gonna run for TX and FL if Crist or Demings win Gwen Graham will run against Scott

Crenshaw definitely want to run for Sen if Cornyn or Cruz retire

Bill Nelson already was Senator from FL we have a better chance of beating DeSantis

He only won by 1500o votes

Actually we have a better chance of flipping OH than TX DeWine isn't beating Nan W by 20 pts with OH Senate only 5 pts

Lake showed the Gov race a tie we need someone else to poll OH

Dan Crenshaw will never hold a Statewide Office in TX. He already pissed off a lot of Conservative Base Voters with his moderate stances. It's more likely that someone like Troy Nehls or Chip Roy will replace Cruz. And if Trump runs for POTUS again Cruz will stay in the Senate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

Because the Texas of 2022 isn't the Texas of the 90s? It's still a lean R state but it's not some conservative bastion anymore and "swing voters" actually care about gun control measures.

The people who support gun control were already voting Democrats. No one is a single issue anti-gun voter, they are likely to be liberal on most other issues. However, a state like Texas there are many people who will be turned off by that. It's not even like it's just a policy in his platform. Beto is making gun control the cornerstone of his campaign and seems to be embracing his "Hell yes" comments and that will likely hurt him.

[wbrocks67]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

Because the Texas of 2022 isn't the Texas of the 90s? It's still a lean R state but it's not some conservative bastion anymore and "swing voters" actually care about gun control measures.

The people who support gun control were already voting Democrats. No one is a single issue anti-gun voter, they are likely to be liberal on most other issues. However, a state like Texas there are many people who will be turned off by that. It's not even like it's just a policy in his platform. Beto is making gun control the cornerstone of his campaign and seems to be embracing his "Hell yes" comments and that will likely hurt him.

Given the situation in Uvalde, I would imagine that is likely a pretty good message at this point.