Texas 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

So with supply issues and likely rolling blackouts because ERCOT refused to weatherize for heat, following a winter in which a minor cold snap managed to kill 150 people because ERCOT refused to weatherize for cold, do we think this will have any impact on state-level races? It sure seems like running against the power company could get allot of headway for Dems here.

Dems really need to use these issues. Honestly, it feels like it writes itself - while people were being hurt by the winter storm and now the heat, where is Gov Abbot? Oh yeah, he's literally spending his time on Fox News culture war bills and gun/border wall stuff.

[wbrocks67]

So who is the most serious D in the race right now?

[wbrocks67]

Yeah I mean Abbott is still clearly favored but I do think that his 'Titanium R' appeal is not true at all. I think he's definitely vulnerable.

[wbrocks67]

See, someone needs to be in this race right now to be capitalizing on Abbott's terrible governing.

[wbrocks67]

I heard from a source close to Beto that he is going to run against Abbott.

When's he gonna launch though? now's a better time as any.

I'm not sure about his chances but I also think we're far enough removed from the Dem prez primary where most people have forgotten about that campaign.

[wbrocks67]

Beto bungled anx chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

I don't think a lot of people remember that by now. Like they remember he did it, but not the substance. Plus, I can see him being a turnout machine again for liberals.

If he had gone away since then and done nothing, then he'd be remembered for that, but he's been very active in TX since early 2020 in voter registration efforts.

[wbrocks67]

Beto bungled anx chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

I don't think a lot of people remember that by now. Like they remember he did it, but not the substance. Plus, I can see him being a turnout machine again for liberals.

If he had gone away since then and done nothing, then he'd be remembered for that, but he's been very active in TX since early 2020 in voter registration efforts.

Are peoples memories that bad?

I just don't think it's relevant. It was nearly two years ago at this point. That's an eternity in politics.

[wbrocks67]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

The gun thing was O'Rourke's only "gaffe" in about 3 years if IIRC....

[wbrocks67]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

The gun thing was O'Rourke's only "gaffe" in about 3 years if IIRC....

It's a pretty big one for running in Texas though.

and it was over a year and half ago.

[wbrocks67]

Great news. Beto is doing the Democratic Party a favor win or lose. You have to compete.

Exactly. Just because his Dem Prez campaign didn't go well doesn't mean anything.

I guess Klobuchar is also going to lose because her campaign went down in flames too! People need to realize that that primary is its own thing and has no bearing on any of these senators/governor races (just like how people keep bringing it up with Kamala as well)

[wbrocks67]

He’s not going to win, but if he puts forward the same amount of work meeting with and registering voters like he did in 2018, it will only continue to help Democrats moving forward in Texas.

This is basically the entire point, no matter what anyone says.

[wbrocks67]

Abbott has really done pretty much everything he could in the last few years to make himself vulnerable. It's a red year so he won't be, but he's lucky b/c he thinks this is still an R+20 state or something and it's not.

[wbrocks67]

For comparison sake, here is 2018. The total vote was about R+20 in both primaries

Senate Primary
Reps 1,543,674 votes (59.8%)
Dems 1,037,779 votes (40.2%)

Gov Primary
Reps 1,540,296 votes (60.2%)
Dems 1,017,940 votes (39.8%)

[wbrocks67]

The gop raw vote lead in the primary is going to surpass 2014 and probably 2010 and set a record

Up to 780,000 vote lead

The Dem primary appears to have a lot still out - moreso than GOP. Anyone confirm this though? Harris County, for example is only 65% in

[wbrocks67]

Overall Betos flip flop on guns is hilarious but it seems unlike Fl dems he is taking his campaign more seriously.  Still Safe R but as Texas Ds are a burgeoning state party having a really bad year could cripple them for a few cycles . Bets serious campaign could prevent this.

Agreed, the one thing about Beto is that at least he energizes people. I think if it weren't for him, this cycle would be cataclysmic for TX dems.

[wbrocks67]

We can now project that Greg Abbott will win re-election as governor of Texas.
https://twitter.com/rncresearch/status/1515716494323339271?s=21

And I'm sure there was much more context to this answer than just a RNC Research clipped tweet.

[wbrocks67]

It's almost as if its a race between DeSantis and Abbott of who can hurt their own state more but their voters will still end up voting for them. Just so screwed up.

https://twitter.com/lmtnews/status/1517555631913324545

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has Abbott at +12 approval

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/

[wbrocks67]

Good for Beto. Abbott is a total clown and that's putting it nicely. He deserved to be called out. Now is not the time for decorum. That ship sailed many school shootings ago.

[wbrocks67]

Good for Beto. Abbott is a total clown and that's putting it nicely. He deserved to be called out. Now is not the time for decorum. That ship sailed many school shootings ago.

Texas will never elect a Progressive like Beto who has no shame.

Abbott has become a far-right nut with no shame and yet he was re-elected.... so, you're point?

[wbrocks67]

Both look horrible.

Beto is right in his point - but turning it into a message for him is a terrible look.

Where did he turn it into a message for himself?

[wbrocks67]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

[wbrocks67]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Beto's speech is resonating across the country but doubtful it is with Texas voters.

Like it or not, his interruption sort of made him seem like he's playing politics with the moment. And, frankly, he is even though he's correct in the point he was making. Anyway, it's not going to sit well with independent voters, and Texas isn't blue enough for him to make up the difference, even if it's a slight one. The speech/interruption isn't going to bring in any new voters.

literally no proof of this, but okay

[wbrocks67]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

The GOP could detonate a nuke in Milwaukee and ElectionsGuy would be out here like "look how out of touch these elitist liberals are, there's no way this is going to play well with voters." Not everything is campaigning, man! Many people are just distraught that we keep sacrificing schoolchildren as a matter of state policy!

people call me a hack when ElectionsGuy is out here literally defending GOP at all costs day in and day out...

[wbrocks67]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

With all the people in that room, yes I'm sure you somehow knew exactly who was booing him and who wasn't. Just stop.