Texas 2022 megathread

[perpetual_cynic]

I don't think Beto will win in November, but the Republican strategy of treating races that they keep winning by ~5 points as Safe R because "winning by 5 and winning by 25 is the same thing" is eventually going to fail.

Yeah Republicans seem to let that happen a lot. I don't think Beto will win but I certainly think he'll make gains. I live in a swing area near Houston and there is a lot of support for Beto here. I see way many more Beto signs than signs for Republican candidates.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Seems there's this unofficial quota where someone has to mention how TX-GOV won't flip on every page of the thread

The quota lives for another page!

[wesmoorenerd]

Seems there's this unofficial quota where someone has to mention how TX-GOV won't flip on every page of the thread

The quota lives for another page!

Pfft, not happening. No. Just don't see it. Safe R.

- Sir Mohamed, probably

[Unelectable Bystander]

Seems there's this unofficial quota where someone has to mention how TX-GOV won't flip on every page of the thread

The quota lives for another page!

This exists, but pales in comparison to the democrat obsession with Texas. There are also quotas for reassurance posts such as:

1) Lecturing atlas about the Republican campaign strategies in Texas

2) Referencing “demographic change”

3) Reminding everyone that this isn’t “Texas in the 90’s”

4) Comparing candidate quality between Abbott and Beto

Between these, and the obligatory “safe R” posts, this is really a pretty useless thread.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just got an ad on Youtube from Beth van Duyne, talking tough on "criminal illegals". She leaned in on her career as mayor of Irving to add heft.

[Pollster]

Just got an ad on Youtube from Beth van Duyne, talking tough on "criminal illegals". She leaned in on her career as mayor of Irving to add heft.

Does she even have a race?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just got an ad on Youtube from Beth van Duyne, talking tough on "criminal illegals". She leaned in on her career as mayor of Irving to add heft.

Does she even have a race?

I don't think this election is likely to be hugely competitive, but it's probably the weakest of all the GOP seats in North Texas. The GOP even had to run it all the way into basically all of uber-red NE Tarrant County just to shore it up.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems there's this unofficial quota where someone has to mention how TX-GOV won't flip on every page of the thread

The quota lives for another page!

This exists, but pales in comparison to the democrat obsession with Texas. There are also quotas for reassurance posts such as:

1) Lecturing atlas about the Republican campaign strategies in Texas

2) Referencing “demographic change”

3) Reminding everyone that this isn’t “Texas in the 90’s”

4) Comparing candidate quality between Abbott and Beto

Between these, and the obligatory “safe R” posts, this is really a pretty useless thread.

Of course Texas democrats also were in better shape from 90-96 then they are today even if yah Texas was trending hard GOP but 98 was really the election where the TX Dems died at a statewide Level .

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems there's this unofficial quota where someone has to mention how TX-GOV won't flip on every page of the thread

The quota lives for another page!

This exists, but pales in comparison to the democrat obsession with Texas. There are also quotas for reassurance posts such as:

1) Lecturing atlas about the Republican campaign strategies in Texas

2) Referencing “demographic change”

3) Reminding everyone that this isn’t “Texas in the 90’s”

4) Comparing candidate quality between Abbott and Beto

Between these, and the obligatory “safe R” posts, this is really a pretty useless thread.

I agree with all your points except 2. While Demographic shifts alone aren't going to power Beto over the edge, long term the trajectory is very brutal for TX Rs since Demographic shifts tend to be very stable.

In Texas, growth amongst all races is pretty heavily concentrated in and around the large metros, whereas many of the rural parts of the state that net Rs insane vote margins are actively shrinking.

I mean just look at Texas's new congressional map which aims to be a pretty maximal gerrymander. Republicans had to cede 3 new Dem vote sinks from last decade which isn't normal. And it's also worth noting in 2010, Rs could've drawn Dallas into just 1 D seat and Houston into 2 but didn't cause the justice department still had control over illegal maps at the time and doing so likely would've cracked Hispanic communities too much.

So if Rs had done a more maximal gerrymander in 2010 without the loom of the justice department, they would've had to cede 5 new Dem vote sinks this cycle.

It just feels like Rs are being very under reactive about the Demographic changes of Texas given it's a huge electoral prize it'll be hard for them to win the EC with out; the rust belt isn't enough since Texas has almost as many EVs as the whole rust belt lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt9aPhZDu9s

Watching the TX Gov Debate on Youtube.

It's actually a lot more civil than I expected on both ends; I was kind of worried that Abbott would sorta become the adult in the room but Beto is overall well-spoken and more "mature" than I expected him to be.

Abbott inherently has a bit of a tougher job since he gets the tough questions about how he's done as governor, but a lot of the times he really didn't have a great response and sort of flailed. On the flip side, O' Rourke was well spoken but since he is not the incumbent, he didn't have as many controversial things to defend.

One strategy on Abbott's part really seemed to be to tie Beto to Biden, and also blame everything not going well in Texas with the Biden admin, most notably border control.

Overall, it seemed like a slight Beto win but nothing massive.

After the debate they talked with their panel of undecided voters from Dallas, a group of 15 "swing voters" and visually a pretty diverse group in terms of race and age. Generally, it seemed like this group shifted towards O' Rourke after the debate, going from 40 - 27 in Abott's favor to 50 - 43 in O' Rourke's favor, and all saying they are likely to vote. A lot of them seemed very dissatisfied to a lot of Abbott's answers.

Obviously this is a very small group so it's mostly anecdotal but still interesting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Seems there's this unofficial quota where someone has to mention how TX-GOV won't flip on every page of the thread

The quota lives for another page!

This exists, but pales in comparison to the democrat obsession with Texas. There are also quotas for reassurance posts such as:

1) Lecturing atlas about the Republican campaign strategies in Texas

2) Referencing “demographic change”

3) Reminding everyone that this isn’t “Texas in the 90’s”

4) Comparing candidate quality between Abbott and Beto

Between these, and the obligatory “safe R” posts, this is really a pretty useless thread.

Of course Texas democrats also were in better shape from 90-96 then they are today even if yah Texas was trending hard GOP but 98 was really the election where the TX Dems died at a statewide Level .

Lol we won a bunch of statewide D offices in 2018 and TX D party is far from DOA it's not the IL, CA or NY R party Beto and Crist are only down 5/6 pts that's not a landslide, see D's rely on 30% of Blk and Brown vote when we are behind, the Rs when they are behind in IL, CA and NY don't have the Blk and Brown vote to pull them over that's why Pat Ryan came back from 8 down, female vote

Do you know the racial breakdown it's 30% Blk, Latino, Arab make up the D vote 20% or 40% of the White vote make up 50% D and 40% or 60% of the White vote make up Rs and 5% other mostly Arabs make up 45% we outnumber Rs 50/45 be ause we have won the PVI since 2012 65/60M Case closed

It will be a monumental upset but Blk and Brown and females will pull Beto or Crist over should they win, white men will pull DeSantis or Abbott over should he won yeah 30% of D vote is Blk and Brown

[Mr. Smith]

I don't think Beto will win in November, but the Republican strategy of treating races that they keep winning by ~5 points as Safe R because "winning by 5 and winning by 25 is the same thing" is eventually going to fail.

Happened to Virginia in the Oughts just like this, happened to Georgia in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto has the big mojo and so does Ryan, McMillin and Beasley heading into EDay but obviously the Hurricane has stalked Demings and Crist momentum

I will be laughing If Beto wins

[Brittain33]

Gregg Abbott to campaign with Nikki Haley tomorrow. We have seen a flurry of Campaign Events by Haley for various Candidates endorsed by her "Stand for America" SuperPac as of late. On this Board here Haley was all but written off for 2024 BUT if something happens to DeSantis or Trump she and her fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott maybe the best bet.

I don't get why the GOP thinks anyone actually cares about Nikki Haley.

There’s a huge Indian population around Plano, I thought.

[LostInOhio]

Beto absolutely demolished Greg Abbott at the debate but I don’t think that’ll be enough to tip the scales at all. I remember coming away from the first 2016 debate with that impression about Clinton vs Trump and we all know how that turned out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto absolutely demolished Greg Abbott at the debate but I don’t think that’ll be enough to tip the scales at all. I remember coming away from the first 2016 debate with that impression about Clinton vs Trump and we all know how that turned out.

Lol let's wait til EDay it's 5 weeks till EDay we don't know the winners yet it's only 53/47

[wbrocks67]

Beto absolutely demolished Greg Abbott at the debate but I don’t think that’ll be enough to tip the scales at all. I remember coming away from the first 2016 debate with that impression about Clinton vs Trump and we all know how that turned out.

Yeah, the thing is I think the debate will help Beto amp up his side, but most normies do not watch these things.

[2016]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt9aPhZDu9s

Watching the TX Gov Debate on Youtube.

It's actually a lot more civil than I expected on both ends; I was kind of worried that Abbott would sorta become the adult in the room but Beto is overall well-spoken and more "mature" than I expected him to be.

Abbott inherently has a bit of a tougher job since he gets the tough questions about how he's done as governor, but a lot of the times he really didn't have a great response and sort of flailed. On the flip side, O' Rourke was well spoken but since he is not the incumbent, he didn't have as many controversial things to defend.

One strategy on Abbott's part really seemed to be to tie Beto to Biden, and also blame everything not going well in Texas with the Biden admin, most notably border control.

Overall, it seemed like a slight Beto win but nothing massive.

After the debate they talked with their panel of undecided voters from Dallas, a group of 15 "swing voters" and visually a pretty diverse group in terms of race and age. Generally, it seemed like this group shifted towards O' Rourke after the debate, going from 40 - 27 in Abott's favor to 50 - 43 in O' Rourke's favor, and all saying they are likely to vote. A lot of them seemed very dissatisfied to a lot of Abbott's answers.

Obviously this is a very small group so it's mostly anecdotal but still interesting.

Look, Beto is going to win in Dallas County. The Question is the margin. I fall over my chair if O'Rourke wins by the same margin he won against Cruz in 2018

Here are the Cruz - O'Rourke 2018 Race
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/results/texas

Look at the RGV!!! Will O'Rourke do as well as he did in 2018? I very much doubt that.

Beto won 66-33 in Dallas so if he wins only 50 - 43 he ain't going to win Statewide.

As you correctly pointing out only a small sample of those Undecided Voters. Still, does Beto really think deep inside his heart that TX 2022 will be remisent of TX 2018. I very much doubt that. He might safe Democrats a couple of House Seats.

But my feel is every Democrat in the Country in a Toss Up Race will eventually dragged down by Bidens JA. 1st Term Midterm Elections are always a Referendum on the President and that's not going to change this year.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/brittbaileytv/status/1576759649226739712?s=46&t=BLcAavqH...
Safe R -> Safe D

Idk to what extent Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Phil Bredesen had on his campaign, but Harry’s Beto endorsement will probably be (sorta?) similar.

[wbrocks67]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

[Real Texan Politics]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

Beto’s a much more energetic candidate than Lupe Valdez was in 2018, so I think youth turnout could go up this year. Dobbs could be a factor in that too.

[Calthrina950]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

Beto’s a much more energetic candidate than Lupe Valdez was in 2018, so I think youth turnout could go up this year. Dobbs could be a factor in that too.

It's interesting how even Valdez won Hays County in 2018. It would be reasonable to expect for it and adjoining Travis County to swing strongly Democratic this year. O'Rourke should also flip Fort Bend County, which Abbott won by only 493 votes against Valdez. But what about Tarrant and Williamson Counties? O'Rourke won them in 2018, and Biden won them in 2020. If Abbott wins by about the margin Cornyn did in 2020, he should hold those counties (as Cornyn did).

[Real Texan Politics]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

Beto’s a much more energetic candidate than Lupe Valdez was in 2018, so I think youth turnout could go up this year. Dobbs could be a factor in that too.

It's interesting how even Valdez won Hays County in 2018. It would be reasonable to expect for it and adjoining Travis County to swing strongly Democratic this year. O'Rourke should also flip Fort Bend County, which Abbott won by only 493 votes against Valdez. But what about Tarrant and Williamson Counties? O'Rourke won them in 2018, and Biden won them in 2020. If Abbott wins by about the margin Cornyn did in 2020, he should hold those counties (as Cornyn did).

I expect Abbott to win both, but I’m more confident in Tarrant than Williamson.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

Beto’s a much more energetic candidate than Lupe Valdez was in 2018, so I think youth turnout could go up this year. Dobbs could be a factor in that too.

It's interesting how even Valdez won Hays County in 2018. It would be reasonable to expect for it and adjoining Travis County to swing strongly Democratic this year. O'Rourke should also flip Fort Bend County, which Abbott won by only 493 votes against Valdez. But what about Tarrant and Williamson Counties? O'Rourke won them in 2018, and Biden won them in 2020. If Abbott wins by about the margin Cornyn did in 2020, he should hold those counties (as Cornyn did).

I expect Abbott to win both, but I’m more confident in Tarrant than Williamson.

Austin area has always seemed to be Beto’s strength and Williamson County trends are far more brutal for Rs.

[Real Texan Politics]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

Beto’s a much more energetic candidate than Lupe Valdez was in 2018, so I think youth turnout could go up this year. Dobbs could be a factor in that too.

It's interesting how even Valdez won Hays County in 2018. It would be reasonable to expect for it and adjoining Travis County to swing strongly Democratic this year. O'Rourke should also flip Fort Bend County, which Abbott won by only 493 votes against Valdez. But what about Tarrant and Williamson Counties? O'Rourke won them in 2018, and Biden won them in 2020. If Abbott wins by about the margin Cornyn did in 2020, he should hold those counties (as Cornyn did).

I expect Abbott to win both, but I’m more confident in Tarrant than Williamson.

Austin area has always seemed to be Beto’s strength and Williamson County trends are far more brutal for Rs.

Exactly, plus Tarrant is more swingy and was closer than Williamson in 2020.