Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's called wave insurance Beto lost by 2, Abbott and DeSantis are leading by 6 guess what Gillum was leading DeSantis by 6 and he lost, six pts is nothing


Blk and Brown are the balance of power not the majority 5/6%

DeWine since Ryan is so close isn't 20% over Nan W he is only up by 6, come now 20. Pts and Ryan is tied or leading, no, he only won by 3 in 2o18

[ProgressiveModerate]

The more I look at the swing map, Beto 2018 is basically Biden 2020 with a more "normal" Dem performance with minority voters across the state.

I really do wonder how much of the heavy rightwards shift we saw in a lot of very D minority communities was at least in part specific to covid and higher turnout. There def is a case to be made that less frequent black or hispanic voters tend to be less firmly in the dem column (but still lean Dem overall, especially if it's in a city).

Secondly in all the major metros, there's def a ring of suburbs where Biden slightly outperformed Beto, but not by much. I wonder how much of that could be turnout differentials vs growth vs genuine unique appeal from Biden to these communities.

If Beto is able to get a universal overperformance of Biden by just like 1-2% in most rural areas, that would be extremely powerful is TX rurals are EXTREMELY R throughout, especially in the eastern part of the state where they're relatively dense rurals too.

Still think Abbott will win but there def is a clearer path for Beto than say Christ or Whaley

[MargieCat]

The more I look at the swing map, Beto 2018 is basically Biden 2020 with a more "normal" Dem performance with minority voters across the state.

I really do wonder how much of the heavy rightwards shift we saw in a lot of very D minority communities was at least in part specific to covid and higher turnout. There def is a case to be made that less frequent black or hispanic voters tend to be less firmly in the dem column (but still lean Dem overall, especially if it's in a city).

Secondly in all the major metros, there's def a ring of suburbs where Biden slightly outperformed Beto, but not by much. I wonder how much of that could be turnout differentials vs growth vs genuine unique appeal from Biden to these communities.

If Beto is able to get a universal overperformance of Biden by just like 1-2% in most rural areas, that would be extremely powerful is TX rurals are EXTREMELY R throughout, especially in the eastern part of the state where they're relatively dense rurals too.

Still think Abbott will win but there def is a clearer path for Beto than say Christ or Whaley

I also wonder if part of it was due to Trump's incumbency and name recognition.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The more I look at the swing map, Beto 2018 is basically Biden 2020 with a more "normal" Dem performance with minority voters across the state.

I really do wonder how much of the heavy rightwards shift we saw in a lot of very D minority communities was at least in part specific to covid and higher turnout. There def is a case to be made that less frequent black or hispanic voters tend to be less firmly in the dem column (but still lean Dem overall, especially if it's in a city).

Secondly in all the major metros, there's def a ring of suburbs where Biden slightly outperformed Beto, but not by much. I wonder how much of that could be turnout differentials vs growth vs genuine unique appeal from Biden to these communities.

If Beto is able to get a universal overperformance of Biden by just like 1-2% in most rural areas, that would be extremely powerful is TX rurals are EXTREMELY R throughout, especially in the eastern part of the state where they're relatively dense rurals too.

Still think Abbott will win but there def is a clearer path for Beto than say Christ or Whaley

I also wonder if part of it was due to Trump's incumbency and name recognition.

Possibly that could be some of it, but in 2018 Cruz was technically the incumbent and we haven't seen a Dem put up that poor of a % margin in heavily black and Hispanic parts of Dallas, Houston, and RGV for a long time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The more I look at the swing map, Beto 2018 is basically Biden 2020 with a more "normal" Dem performance with minority voters across the state.

I really do wonder how much of the heavy rightwards shift we saw in a lot of very D minority communities was at least in part specific to covid and higher turnout. There def is a case to be made that less frequent black or hispanic voters tend to be less firmly in the dem column (but still lean Dem overall, especially if it's in a city).

Secondly in all the major metros, there's def a ring of suburbs where Biden slightly outperformed Beto, but not by much. I wonder how much of that could be turnout differentials vs growth vs genuine unique appeal from Biden to these communities.

If Beto is able to get a universal overperformance of Biden by just like 1-2% in most rural areas, that would be extremely powerful is TX rurals are EXTREMELY R throughout, especially in the eastern part of the state where they're relatively dense rurals too.

Still think Abbott will win but there def is a clearer path for Beto than say Christ or Whaley

I also wonder if part of it was due to Trump's incumbency and name recognition.

Possibly that could be some of it, but in 2018 Cruz was technically the incumbent and we haven't seen a Dem put up that poor of a % margin in heavily black and Hispanic parts of Dallas, Houston, and RGV for a long time.

Do you know we won Congressional seats in 2018/ in TX too, this state only flips if we win the H but we don't know what to expect on Eday

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The problem for Beto is Democrats simply don't have the votes to win the state. The ceiling for them was his 2018 result against Ted Cruz. That might change in the future, but Republicans pretty much are guaranteed 50% of the vote on any given day. Cruz got 51%, Trump got 52%, Cornyn got 53%, despite Dems ramping up their turnout. This might change in the future, but at least in 2022 it is likely to hold true.

[2016]

Abortion won't become that big of an Issue in TX. The biggest Issue in TX is the Border and O'Rourke is absolutely clueless what to do with that Issue.

The Country doesn't need 87,000 IRS Agents. It needs 87,000 Border Patrol Agents IMO!

[Real Texan Politics]

The problem for Beto is Democrats simply don't have the votes to win the state. The ceiling for them was his 2018 result against Ted Cruz. That might change in the future, but Republicans pretty much are guaranteed 50% of the vote on any given day. Cruz got 51%, Trump got 52%, Cornyn got 53%, despite Dems ramping up their turnout. This might change in the future, but at least in 2022 it is likely to hold true.

How much do you think Abbott gets this time? 55 is about my guess.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, this is an upset, no one expects Beto to win but like Cunningham he is only down six

Rs keep saying Oz and Masters will come back or Mastriano and they are all down six not 12 pts the same rule applies to red states not just Blue

[ProgressiveModerate]

The problem for Beto is Democrats simply don't have the votes to win the state. The ceiling for them was his 2018 result against Ted Cruz. That might change in the future, but Republicans pretty much are guaranteed 50% of the vote on any given day. Cruz got 51%, Trump got 52%, Cornyn got 53%, despite Dems ramping up their turnout. This might change in the future, but at least in 2022 it is likely to hold true.

Eh Dems def in theory have the votes to win Texas but practically turnout dynamics make that trickier. If TX had universal turnout across the board on 2020 Pres numbers (and assume the new voters break the same way as their communities voted in 2020), Trump would only win the state by 2. If you do equalized turnout except for Austin Biden narrowly wins the state depending upon how broadly one defines Austin. It's important to note that yeah while turnout increased in many of the urban cores in 2020, many of the black and Hispanic communities in Dallas and Houston still had sub-30% turnout which.

I don't think Republicans are "guaranteed" to get 50% of the vote here, especially since demographic and population shifts are extremely unfavorable. 2022 likely just isn't the year for Dems in the state due to TX not really being a top priority and the likely R lean of the year.

[2016]

@ProgressiveModerate,
Vice President Kamala Harris may have just ended any Chance Beto O'Rourke had in this Race.
In an Interview on Meet The Press with Chuck Todd Harris said "The Border is Secure". When Todd pointed out to her that over 2Million People crossed the Border illegally this year she doubled down.

Get ready for Abbott to unleash some Ads soon tying O'Rourke to Harris.

NO KAMALA, the Border isn't Secure.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The problem for Beto is Democrats simply don't have the votes to win the state. The ceiling for them was his 2018 result against Ted Cruz. That might change in the future, but Republicans pretty much are guaranteed 50% of the vote on any given day. Cruz got 51%, Trump got 52%, Cornyn got 53%, despite Dems ramping up their turnout. This might change in the future, but at least in 2022 it is likely to hold true.

Eh Dems def in theory have the votes to win Texas but practically turnout dynamics make that trickier. If TX had universal turnout across the board on 2020 Pres numbers (and assume the new voters break the same way as their communities voted in 2020), Trump would only win the state by 2. If you do equalized turnout except for Austin Biden narrowly wins the state depending upon how broadly one defines Austin. It's important to note that yeah while turnout increased in many of the urban cores in 2020, many of the black and Hispanic communities in Dallas and Houston still had sub-30% turnout which.

I don't think Republicans are "guaranteed" to get 50% of the vote here, especially since demographic and population shifts are extremely unfavorable. 2022 likely just isn't the year for Dems in the state due to TX not really being a top priority and the likely R lean of the year.

The population shifts part is valid, but I meant that 50+% of the state's voters are Republicans as of today. IMO if people didn't vote in 2020 with 67% turnout they aren't going to be voting in 2022, unless they were under 18 then. A lot of minority demographics simply just don't vote, and Democrats can't use them for a path to flip the state. Also unlike Georgia where blacks are moving in (an 80-10) voting group, Texas is seeing hispanics (60-40) and suburban whites (50-50) so it's harder to shift the state that easily. Also Texas is a MASSIVE state (2.7 times the size of Georgia and 4.2 times Arizona) so naturally it will take longer for trends to carry Democrats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The problem for Beto is Democrats simply don't have the votes to win the state. The ceiling for them was his 2018 result against Ted Cruz. That might change in the future, but Republicans pretty much are guaranteed 50% of the vote on any given day. Cruz got 51%, Trump got 52%, Cornyn got 53%, despite Dems ramping up their turnout. This might change in the future, but at least in 2022 it is likely to hold true.

Eh Dems def in theory have the votes to win Texas but practically turnout dynamics make that trickier. If TX had universal turnout across the board on 2020 Pres numbers (and assume the new voters break the same way as their communities voted in 2020), Trump would only win the state by 2. If you do equalized turnout except for Austin Biden narrowly wins the state depending upon how broadly one defines Austin. It's important to note that yeah while turnout increased in many of the urban cores in 2020, many of the black and Hispanic communities in Dallas and Houston still had sub-30% turnout which.

I don't think Republicans are "guaranteed" to get 50% of the vote here, especially since demographic and population shifts are extremely unfavorable. 2022 likely just isn't the year for Dems in the state due to TX not really being a top priority and the likely R lean of the year.

The population shifts part is valid, but I meant that 50+% of the state's voters are Republicans as of today. IMO if people didn't vote in 2020 with 67% turnout they aren't going to be voting in 2022, unless they were under 18 then. A lot of minority demographics simply just don't vote, and Democrats can't use them for a path to flip the state. Also unlike Georgia where blacks are moving in (an 80-10) voting group, Texas is seeing hispanics (60-40) and suburban whites (50-50) so it's harder to shift the state that easily. Also Texas is a MASSIVE state (2.7 times the size of Georgia and 4.2 times Arizona) so naturally it will take longer for trends to carry Democrats.

Texas is a far more complex mechanism than any other swing state 100%. The only way Dems could realistically win in 2022 would be with pretty lopsided turnout dynamics in their favor which is hard cause as you said in TX, Dems already tend to rely on a ton of unreliable groups. Another difference between GA and TX too is that in GA, you actually have a good handful of relatively affluent black communities in Atlanta which are both high turnout and very lopsided towards Ds whereas you don't have that in Texas with either black or Hispanic voters.

The biggest thing working in Dems favor is Austin 100%. It's extremely high turnout and very fast growing, especially when compared to any of the other metros. The issue though is that as of today, greater Austin is maybe like 1/10th of Texas population being extremely generous.

In Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, growth is less objectively liberal and a large part of the swing in those cities has just been increasing minority turnout in the past decade.

One problem for the GOP is basically all of rural Texas that doesn't have at least some urban influence is stagnant if not shrinking. it's slow, but the rural 90R-10D areas of the state are becoming a smaller and smaller proportion of the states electorate.

[2016]

Gregg Abbott to campaign with Nikki Haley tomorrow. We have seen a flurry of Campaign Events by Haley for various Candidates endorsed by her "Stand for America" SuperPac as of late. On this Board here Haley was all but written off for 2024 BUT if something happens to DeSantis or Trump she and her fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott maybe the best bet.

[wbrocks67]

Gregg Abbott to campaign with Nikki Haley tomorrow. We have seen a flurry of Campaign Events by Haley for various Candidates endorsed by her "Stand for America" SuperPac as of late. On this Board here Haley was all but written off for 2024 BUT if something happens to DeSantis or Trump she and her fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott maybe the best bet.

I don't get why the GOP thinks anyone actually cares about Nikki Haley.

[coloradocowboi]

Gregg Abbott to campaign with Nikki Haley tomorrow. We have seen a flurry of Campaign Events by Haley for various Candidates endorsed by her "Stand for America" SuperPac as of late. On this Board here Haley was all but written off for 2024 BUT if something happens to DeSantis or Trump she and her fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott maybe the best bet.

I don't get why the GOP thinks anyone actually cares about Nikki Haley.

She was a serial underperformed as gov. Her race in 2010 was even tight!

I would be happy to let the GOP nominate her though just so I could hear the “oh racism and sexism are real (but only affect republicans)” takes that will be sure to circulate after lol

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I just left country themed A&M Bar in College Station, It was packed with trump supporting Aggies whispering about just how much of a terrible job Abbot was doing and how extreme the Texas abortion ban was.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just left country themed A&M Bar in College Station, It was packed with trump supporting Aggies whispering about just how much of a terrible job Abbot was doing and how extreme the Texas abortion ban was.

Either extremely pro-life or pro-choice looks extreme. Either you have exceptions or you risk losing at the ballot box. Most people have nuanced views on abortion.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I got an ad earlier today from the Beto campaign. They said that a law Abbott signed into law lacks exemption for rape, incest, or if the mother's life is in danger.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Greg Abbott's lead over Beto O'Rourke has shrunk to 5 points, new poll shows

Do I think Beto is likely to pull it off? Not really, but I absolutely think that if the margin is under 5 points in this environment that Republicans are going to be sweating for the rest of this decade. Texas isn't solid Red anymore and isn't likely to ever be again for the foreseeable future.

[Real Texan Politics]

I have serious doubts it'll be that close.

[ExSky]

I have serious doubts it'll be that close.

Beto isnt gonna win by THAT much

[Real Texan Politics]

I have serious doubts it'll be that close.

Beto isnt gonna win by THAT much

Beto isn't even gonna win at all

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I have serious doubts it'll be that close.

Beto isnt gonna win by THAT much

He's going to come much closer than people here think.

[Ferguson97]

I don't think Beto will win in November, but the Republican strategy of treating races that they keep winning by ~5 points as Safe R because "winning by 5 and winning by 25 is the same thing" is eventually going to fail.