Texas 2022 megathread

[Calthrina950]

Matthew McConaughey doesn't seem interested in running as a Democrat, let alone endorsing Beto or trying to build up the Democratic party in Texas. He has really held the line on being a moderate, and frankly seems more inclined toward a lot of conservative positions.

He's been a major Hollywood actor since 1996, and has never come out as a Democrat or liberal despite it being just about the easiest industry to do that in. That should tell you something.

Like I predicted earlier, if he runs it'll be as an independent.

McConaughey wouldn't be the first celebrity to launch an independent bid in Texas. Country singer Kinky Friedman ran as an independent in 2006. That was a four-way race, with Rick Perry winning with 39% of the vote against Friedman, Carole Strayhorn, and Chris Bell.

[Calthrina950]

Let the sh**tshow begin.

It will certainly be a sh*tshow, although West has no chance; Trump endorsed Abbott and West is a blatant carpetbagger.

All of this, and Abbott has moved significantly to the right since being reelected. He's gone all in on the culture war issues that have been energizing the Republican base recently. I don't think he will have any problems winning either the primary or the general next year.

[Calthrina950]

I'm trying to imagine a possible scenario where O'Rourke is the Democratic nominee and McConaughey runs as a independent candidate. Abbott would probably win in such a scenario, but possibly with only a plurality-like Rick Perry in 2006.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.ksat.com/news/texas/2021/09/29/matthew-dowd-former-george-w-bush-strategist-to-run-as-democrat-for-texas-lieutenant-governor/

Former Bush strategist Matthew Dowd running for Lt Gov as a Democrat. This should be interesting...

I doubt he'll get anywhere. Assuming he wins the primary, he'll almost certainly lose to Patrick.

[Calthrina950]

The frustrating thing is that if he hadn't ran in 2020 he would at the very least be treated as a much more serious challenger.

If he hadn't run in 2020, I could see O'Rourke holding Abbott to within 5%, given the polarizing policies which Abbott has enacted in the past few years. But instead, I'm expecting him to lose to Abbott by something similar to what Hegar lost by to Cornyn.

[Calthrina950]

Is any Democrat likely to run against Beto O'Rourke in the primary as the 'anti O'Rourke' candidate (Or ABo'R) 'anybody but O'Rourke.'

I don't know who would, but it's possible. O'Rourke certainly isn't going to have as "smooth a sailing" to the nomination this time like he did in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

The frustrating thing is that if he hadn't ran in 2020 he would at the very least be treated as a much more serious challenger.

If he hadn't run in 2020, I could see O'Rourke holding Abbott to within 5%, given the polarizing policies which Abbott has enacted in the past few years. But instead, I'm expecting him to lose to Abbott by something similar to what Hegar lost by to Cornyn.

538's data is interesting, that Abbott's approval ratings have gone bad this year. Still, I doubt that's toxic enough to lose despite partisanship.

I'm not surprised that his approvals have worsened, and again, it won't cost him reelection. Abbott seems to have gone all in on being a staunch Trumpist and catering to the base following his last reelection bid. But then again, he's never been a "moderate", and I'm baffled now as to why so many people split their tickets between him and O'Rourke last time. Abbott is just as extreme as Cruz is.

[Calthrina950]

Is there any likelihood Matthew McConaughey could become the Arnold Schwarzenegger of Texas, if he actually decides to run?

SHOCK POLL: Matthew McConaughey Tops Texas Gov. Greg Abbott By 8 in Head-to-Head Matchup, Clobbers Beto Nearly 2-to-1

Matthew McConaghey’s chances of becoming Texas governor are looking alright, alright, alright according to a shocking new major poll.

According to a survey released by the University of Texas and the Dallas Morning News, the actor — in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup — tops current Gov. Greg Abbott (R) by 8 points. In all, 43 percent of respondents say they would back McConaughey, 35 percent would support Abbott, and 22 percent would pick someone else.

McConaughey fared even better against another prominent candidate in the 2022 race. According to the poll, the actor would trounce Democrat Beto O’Rourke in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup by a 49-27 margin. O’Rourke, who lost a Senate bid to Ted Cruz in 2018, then flopped as a presidential candidate in 2020, officially threw his hat in the ring earlier this week.

However:

In a three-way race, however, the survey found O’Rourke and McConaughey would split the anti-Abbott vote and allow the governor to win reelection. The poll has Abbott at 37, McConaughey at 27, and O’Rourke at 26. O’Rourke, in that three-way battle, garnered 74 percent of the Democratic vote. But if McConaughey proves to be a viable candidate, it seems plausible that he could gain more Democratic support — should he end up as the most likely opponent to defeat Abbott.

Perhaps Beto should reconsider his candidacy. 

If McConaughey does run as an independent, we would merely see a repeat of 2006, with Abbott winning reelection by plurality like his predecessor Rick Perry did.

[Calthrina950]

McConaughey is OUT

https://twitter.com/McConaughey/status/1465110042491817988?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogl...

I never seriously thought that he was going to run to begin with. But with him out for sure, that means this will be an Abbott vs. O'Rourke race. Abbott will win, but the margin will probably be within the upper single digits. I expect for him to do worse than in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

McConaughey is OUT

https://twitter.com/McConaughey/status/1465110042491817988?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogl...

I never seriously thought that he was going to run to begin with. But with him out for sure, that means this will be an Abbott vs. O'Rourke race. Abbott will win, but the margin will probably be within the upper single digits. I expect for him to do worse than in 2018.

It would be very concerning if he did better than 2018 considering the Dems didn't even try that year.

It would be, and it remains a possibility. I suspect that Abbott will do better in the Rio Grande Valley, and will probably improve even further in rural Texas (further reducing the paltry Democratic numbers in those areas), but that the major urban and suburban areas of Texas will swing against him. A result resembling that of Cornyn's from last year seems the most plausible outcome to me at this point.

[Calthrina950]

I did a quick spreadsheet comparing 2018 and 2022 early voting data for the 15 biggest counties.



 - In sum, Dems won the 2018 early vote in these counties by 5 points. We are 3 days away from that day and R's are so far winning them by almost an identical margin.

 - So far, this is 65% of the vote from 2018. 73% of the Republican vote and 59% of the Democratic vote.

 - You'll notice that despite turnout thus far not exceeding 2018, it has for Republican primaries in Cameron and Hidalgo counties.

- In the rest of the state (239 other counties), R's are winning 297K to 94K, more than a 3:1 margin.

What this indicates is that Republicans are "fired up" and more enthusiastic to vote this year than Democrats, and are voting at higher rates than Democrats. If I'm not mistaken, this was seen in New Jersey and in Virginia. This would be another sign of the impending Republican wave this year.

[Calthrina950]

Seems like Fort Bend’s the only one that narrowed in the dems favor this time. Although I’ll argue that seems to be a guaranteed flip this year as Abbott’s Fort Bend win in 2018 was basically a fluke, especially when Beto overperformed him there by quite a bit.

Abbott won Fort Bend County by only 493 votes that year. O'Rourke won by 30,976 votes. So yes, I expect for Fort Bend County to flip Democratic this year.

[Calthrina950]

LOL, Gohmert threw away his House seat for nothing.

And that's a good thing. Now he will be out of Congress in January.

[Calthrina950]

Late to this thread so apologies if I’m repeating or missing something obvious, but hasn’t Paxton really underperformed? I’d kind of assumed he’d win a majority against “RINO SWAMP BUSH” etc. Yet Bush has taken him to a run off.

The Bush dynasty seems to still be popular in Texas.

Who do you support in the runoff?

[Calthrina950]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

Turnout for Beto's next 3 runs?

This argument-that O'Rourke is trying to build up the Democratic Party's infrastructure within Texas-was also made in 2018 when he ran against Cruz.

[Calthrina950]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

Turnout for Beto's next 3 runs?

This argument-that O'Rourke is trying to build up the Democratic Party's infrastructure within Texas-was also made in 2018 when he ran against Cruz.

I mean I was joking about him running again but I do agree with that argument. The question of course being is Beto succeeding at that?

I'm not sure. Turnout in Texas, as in the rest of the country, was up massively in 2020, compared to 2016 and all preceding elections. Yet Trump still won by over 600,000 votes, and Cornyn won by more than a million votes. Moreover, Trump got a significantly higher number of raw votes in the Rio Grande Valley, which has long been the most Democratic region of the state. Texas's urban and suburban areas certainly have shifted left and are continuing to do so, but the trends in the Valley and among Hispanics in general ought to be concerning to Democrats.

[Calthrina950]

I would not be shocked if she lost.

I'm actually moving the race from lean D to tossup. I think Mealer or even Vidal Martinez could win even if it's narrow.

Also remember for a major county like Harris, it's not as dem as y'all think.

This is certainly true. Cornyn and Abbott won it as late as 2014, and even Ted Cruz carried it in his first race back in 2012. Biden only marginally improved there compared to Hillary Clinton, a major reason why Trump comfortably held Texas in 2020. And Hidalgo, who has never been a strong or particularly popular incumbent, was swept in by the 2018 wave.

[Calthrina950]

We can now project that Greg Abbott will win re-election as governor of Texas.
https://twitter.com/rncresearch/status/1515716494323339271?s=21

And I'm sure there was much more context to this answer than just a RNC Research clipped tweet.

Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that O'Rourke is a weaker candidate now than he was in 2018. If he hadn't embarked on his abortive presidential bid and made the comments that he did (i.e. "We're going to take your guns"), and if it weren't for the environment, he would have a good shot against Abbott. But that is not so.

[Calthrina950]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

Beto’s a much more energetic candidate than Lupe Valdez was in 2018, so I think youth turnout could go up this year. Dobbs could be a factor in that too.

It's interesting how even Valdez won Hays County in 2018. It would be reasonable to expect for it and adjoining Travis County to swing strongly Democratic this year. O'Rourke should also flip Fort Bend County, which Abbott won by only 493 votes against Valdez. But what about Tarrant and Williamson Counties? O'Rourke won them in 2018, and Biden won them in 2020. If Abbott wins by about the margin Cornyn did in 2020, he should hold those counties (as Cornyn did).

[Calthrina950]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

[Calthrina950]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

I'd be shocked if O'Rourke did that well again, but a single-digit margin certainly isn't implausible at this point.

[Calthrina950]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

I'd be shocked if O'Rourke did that well again, but a single-digit margin certainly isn't implausible at this point.

The Border is completely out of control and O'Rourke wants to give amnesty to everyone who is coming without vetting. Give me a break!

I said that a single-digit margin isn't implausible, but it is not certain. As of now, I believe Abbott will do worse than he did in 2018, but better than Cruz did that year, and probably similar to how Cornyn did in 2020. And I fully expect for the Rio Grande Valley to swing his way, while O'Rourke will almost certainly flip Fort Bend County and will hold Abbott to single-digit margins in Tarrant and Williamson Counties, if he doesn't win them outright.

[Calthrina950]

Ah yes, those famously accurate internals that people were jerking themselves off over:
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1320748939751026690

https://fallacyinlogic.com/hasty-generalization-fallacy-definition-and-examples/

We are to assume then that Abbott is going to be held to a margin as narrow as Cruz's? As I've said before, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if the margin is within single digits and if O'Rourke does as least as well as Biden did in 2020, but I would be shocked if he did as well as in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

Not sure if I understand the logic behind endorsing both Alexandra Mealer and Beto O’Rourke
https://twitter.com/houstonchron/status/1582458995503431682?s=46&t=dp2bBjkTT...

I don't, not entirely. But they seem to be making the case that Abbott "fooled" them, governing as a hardline extremist rather than as a seasonable, moderate establishment Republican. They view his refusal to enact any gun control legislation in the aftermath of Uvalde as a disgrace, condemn his handling of the utilities crisis from last year, and believe that his "border operation" is a waste of taxpayer money and public resources.