Texas 2022 megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

UPDATE: This thread is now for ALL statewide/local races in Texas, just to keep this thread more active and erase the need for additional threads for smaller races. The poll will remain for the gubernatorial race as that is the big one for this year.

So we don't have a whole bunch of threads for each candidate running, I may as well make one massive general megathread for the Lone Star State.

So we know Abbott's running for re-election to a third term, and he's probably the clear favorite to win the election for right now despite some potential major or moderate primary challengers due to Abbott's pandemic response.

We've also just heard Beto O'Rourke has publicly expressed interest. Despite the gun comments (need I mention?), he's probably still the highest profile democrat likely to run outside maybe the Castro twins. Though my guess is while he may still hold onto his Texas fanbase (or whatever's left of it), he still underperforms his senate margins despite maybe using his same strategy as his senate campaign by visting every county? Because if he does so then Abbott may have to watch out.

Anyways here's the potential/declared candidates for both parties (minus already mentioned Abbott and Beto)...

Republicans: Martin Holsome (former Rusk city councilman), Chad Prather (BlazeTV talk show host and comedian), Christi Craddick (Texas railroad commissioner), Dan Crenshaw (probably one of if not the most famous republican congressman), Glenn Hegar (current Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts), Sid Miller (current Texas agriculture commissioner), Ken Paxton (current Texas attorney general), Joe Straus (current speaker of the Texas house), and Allen West (Texas republican party chairman)

Democrats: Colin Allred (TX-32 representative), Joaquin and Julian Castro (Joaquin's the representative for TX-20, and Julian's the former HUD secretary under Obama and former mayor of San Antonio, and can't forget about his failed presidential run), Wendy Davis (former state senator and perennial candidate for governor and representative of TX-21), MJ Hegar (Cornyn's opponent in 2020), Eric Johnson (current mayor of Dallas), Jose Menendez (state senator), Beverly Powell (state senator), Mike Rawlings (former Dallas mayor and former CEO of Pizza Hut), and Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez (candidate in the democratic primary for senator which Hegar won)

As for independents, Matthew McConaughey (if he runs) has the potential to be a spoiler candidate due to his popularity in the state.

My predicted matchup: Greg Abbott (R) vs Beto O’Rourke (D). McConaughey will probably just endorse Beto if Beto ends up running.

My rating prediction: Likely R for now

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In the 2018 senate race, Cruz defeated Beto by 2.6% percentage points.

In the 2018 governors race, Abbott defeat Valdez by 13.3 percentage points.

I expect Abbott to win in 2022 by around 10 percentage points.

It's probably not worth contesting heavily.

Now Paxton and Patrick are a different story.

Who may be the best democrats to beat Paxton and Patrick? I definitely see those races being extremely tight, likely to the point of flipping.

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In the 2018 senate race, Cruz defeated Beto by 2.6% percentage points.

In the 2018 governors race, Abbott defeat Valdez by 13.3 percentage points.

I expect Abbott to win in 2022 by around 10 percentage points.

It's probably not worth contesting heavily.

Now Paxton and Patrick are a different story.

Who may be the best democrats to beat Paxton and Patrick? I definitely see those races being extremely tight, likely to the point of flipping.

I'm hearing a lot about a former mayor of Galveston, Joe Jaworski, challenging Paxton.

Never heard of him before.

Not sure who is running for lieutenant governor.

I've heard George P. Bush is a potential candidate for attorney general.

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So with all the snowstorms and blackouts that ravaged Texas over the last few days, this will certainly have no impact on any and all statewide and local races, right??

R..r..right?

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May regret this later on but I moved my rating down from likely R to lean R due to Abbott's vulnerability after the power crisis and winter storm, and that's especially with Beto as the nominee (which he may as well be the presumptive nominee at this point). Yes the gun comments may still haunt Beto in attack ads, but they may not do as much damage as others may claim. My prediction goes from R+9 down to R+4-5. As said previously though, there's a high chance I could be underestimating Abbott and he ends up winning by like 7 or 8.

By comparison, 2014 was Abbott +20, and 2018 was Abbott +12 (and that was even with Beto on the same ballot for senate). Though that may be a bad comparison since I imagine those were separate wave years.

[Real Texan Politics]

May regret this later on but I moved my rating down from likely R to lean R due to Abbott's vulnerability after the power crisis and winter storm, and that's especially with Beto as the nominee (which he may as well be the presumptive nominee at this point). Yes the gun comments may still haunt Beto in attack ads, but they may not do as much damage as others may claim. My prediction goes from R+9 down to R+4-5. As said previously though, there's a high chance I could be underestimating Abbott and he ends up winning by like 7 or 8.

By comparison, 2014 was Abbott +20, and 2018 was Abbott +12 (and that was even with Beto on the same ballot for senate). Though that may be a bad comparison since I imagine those were separate wave years.

Not sure why you are so pessimistic about Greg Abbott and about the TX GOP in general, especially after what happened to TX dems last year.

Abbott approval rate stayed the same despite the power crisis, at least according to the Texas Tribune poll, so his ''vulnerability'' seems to be more a personal opinion than a data based fact.
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/26/joe-biden-texas-coronavirus-poll/

As for O'Rourke, you believe that his positions on guns are not going to hurt him, okay, but it is also a personal opinion, if we look at the few recent polls we have, his favourability rate in TX is down by double digits, he is even less popular than Biden. Also it is not just his comments about guns which are out of touch with Texans, you have also his comments about taxing churches. If democrats want to lose even more ground in South Texas they should go this path.

Abbott is likely going to win reelection by a low to middle double digits margin.

Yea you’re probably right for the most part. I don’t see Abbott underperforming Trump’s TX numbers, but I do see Abbott underperforming his own 2018 numbers, especially if Beto’s his opponent and with everything that has happened plus him possibly removing the mask mandate for Texas that may or may not cost him a bit of support.

I’d say it’s likely R, but I’d still put it closer to lean than safe. Maybe like Abbott +7 or 8. 7.5 could be a compromise.

[Real Texan Politics]

It seems that the snow storm had no impact on Abbott's approval.

Maybe not that, but I'm curious about what impact his recent covid related announcements will have on his approval.

To be specific, he is allowing ALL businesses in Texas to reopen at 100% capacity, and rescinding the statewide mask mandate. Though he is still allowing businesses to have safety measures when it comes to masks and capacity, and he is still allowing county judges to implement safety measures if hospitalization rates start rising.

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Domains purchased in the names of Beto, Abbott, and West (I'm assuming Royce West).
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1367686354604199937

Beto is basically the presumptive frontrunner at this point, and possibly the nominee if either of the Castros don't run. I assume Beto will announce his campaign by the end of the month.

Overall my prediction is R+5 for the election, but we'll see how things go from here.

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West shouldn't run for Governor, he should run for the new incarnation of TX-30.

Considering EBJ's been the representative from that district for its entire existence (since 1993), it's probably about time they get someone new.

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Post snow storm poll :

https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/dmn-uttyler-march-2020rv.pdf

Abbott approval : 52/31 (+21)

Biden approval : 47/40 (+7)

Cornyn favourability 40/26 (+14)
Cruz favourability : 42/45 (-3)
Trump favourability 43/47 (-4)
O'Rourke favaourability 37/42 (-5)

Considering that was taken before all the controversial covid related announcements, I wonder how it’s changed since then.

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Beto and Crist aren't winning, due to Rubio being on the ballot

DeWine and Kemp are far more likely, than Reynolds, Abbott and DeSANTIS to lose. DeWine isn't unbeatable, since he only won by 3 pts to Lackluster Cordray and he has lost a race before, to Sherrod Brown in 2006

He will be running with Josh Mandel

Dude, that literally has nothing to do with this election. Two completely different states.

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This is currently the only source reporting on it, but it seems like Lina Hidalgo may want to put her hat into the race?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/coronavirus/article/Hidalgo-Abbott-mask-lifted-political-ratings-gov-16014934.php

[Real Texan Politics]

Looks like he's still considering it?

https://twitter.com/HoustonChron/status/1369743481296609285?s=20

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Looks like he's still considering it?

https://twitter.com/HoustonChron/status/1369743481296609285?s=20

Alright? Alright? Alright?

I genuinely don't know how he would fare in an election, but I am curious and kind of want to see it.

I've got a gut feeling he'll have a big enough following that he will be an "election spoiler."

By comparison, Rick Perry was running for re-election in 2006 against 3 candidates (one democrat and two independents). He won by 10% against the democrat, but considering Texas isn't as titanium safe R as it was in '06, I'm very concerned about Abbott's chances, and possibly even Beto's chances against a famous Texas actor.

I'll even make a bold prediction and say Matthew gets 2nd place in Travis County, only behind Beto, considering Matthew's UT roots.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/1369822393678594061?s=20

Starting to seem less and less likely he gets re-elected, especially if he can't even hold onto hardcore conservatives now.

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https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/1369822393678594061?s=20
Starting to seem less and less likely he gets re-elected, especially if he can't even hold onto hardcore conservatives now.

Starting to think you're weighing stuff nearly two years out way too heavily.

Yea probably so.

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If McConnaughey runs as a democrat, does he have a chance? Would he run as a democrat?

My gut says he just runs as an independent, though it seems like he leans liberal on some issues like gun control (as shown in this article): https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/texas/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-political-past/285-4381f292-b1c4-472f-9300-93b5f75d028c

Though in the same article it mentions how he criticized the “illiberal left”, so I imagine he’s dead center in the spectrum with some left views and right views. If anything he would basically just be an election spoiler which probably means he loses a lot of his audience depending on who wins. Would he want to take the risk, who knows?

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Very minor update here since this candidate really had no chance in the republican primary, but Martin Holsome (former city councilman for Rusk, TX) has dropped out of the race. That leaves Chad Prather as Abbott's only current primary challenger.

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Hate to do 3 posts in a row, but we've got some breaking news:

https://twitter.com/dallasnews/status/1378089356292919305?s=20

That leaves Julian Castro as the highest profile potential dem candidate. Could we see him or his twin brother Joaquin enter the race eventually?

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Hate to do 3 posts in a row, but we've got some breaking news:

https://twitter.com/dallasnews/status/1378089356292919305?s=20

I guess he has read the polls and he knows that with a +15/20 approval rate Abbott is not vulnerable

Abbott could still be, but without Beto on the ballot, that may spell trouble for democrats.

I wonder if McConaughey even tries running anymore? Starting to think it may have just been a publicity stunt and he won't run at all.

[Real Texan Politics]

Abbott's margin of victory in 2018 wasn’t even that impressive even when you factor in the massive D wave that year — even Doug Ducey won by a wider margin against (arguably) a stronger opponent in supposedly more 'inelastic' AZ.

No, Garcia was a SOCIALIST and Valdez wasn’t. Ergo, Garcia weak candidate, Valdez strong candidate.

Valdez couldn’t even win Fort Bend County. Whoever the democrats nominate is almost guaranteed to win it this time around.

Looks like Beto walked back his comments a bit, and has now left the door open to running:

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1378110709968556037?s=21

Maybe he’s waiting til Texas gets bluer? I could see him go for governor in 2026, or try again for senate in 2024.

[Real Texan Politics]

Some minor news this thread missed, but military veteran Kurt Schwab is running for governor to primary Abbott. Though considering he doesn't even have a wikipedia page, he has almost no chance at winning.

Here's his campaign site: https://kurtschwab.com/

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/16/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-run-488536

Well well well, I guess he may be running after all??

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/16/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-run-488536

Well well well, I guess he may be running after all??

I mean, honestly, what do we have to lose?  As long as he runs as a Democrat and isn’t the equivalent of a drooling idiot on policy or a crazy conspiracy theorist like Woody Harrelson, I don’t see the harm in running him.  If he’s hopelessly unable to navigate taking issue positions, he won’t win the nomination.  

Abbot is probably winning anyway and if nothing else, you might get lucky and shake up the dynamics of the race a bit and drive up turnout in the Austin metro win or lose and the latter can only be a good thing.

The Generic ballot is plus 10 Crist, Ryan, CUNNINGHAM and McCounghey can indeed won, thanks to the stimulus or we would have been cut off if Rs kept the Senate

The issue are females, you never know how they are gonna vote they can go either way

2022 will NOT be a D+10 year, I can assure that. That said though, you are right about suburban women possibly turning out heavily for Matthew.

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https://news.yahoo.com/could-beto-back-orourke-mulling-041502831.html


Beto is back, sick of playing McCounghey rumors mulls plan to run for TX Gov instead

Beto needs to make up his mind. That said though I’ve got a feeling McConaughey is less likely to run if Beto decides to run, and will ultimately endorse Beto when push comes to shove. Doubt he’d do that to anyone else.

But considering Abbott’s been recently signing a lot of (seemingly) controversial bills into law, such as the abortion heartbeat bill, banning critical race theory, ending mask mandates (plus banning them for schools), it’s no surprise Beto’s considering jumping into the race again.