Texas 2022 megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Preaching to the choir and running a campaign centering on repeating things that ring true among Democrats but are firmly not true in the eyes of swing voters is what got Democrats the 2014 gubernatorial landslide loss.
Electricity costs, I would guess, are the most effective angle TX Dems could use in this area - but I would not be massively shocked if weatherization made for a more effective direction. A lot would depend on particulars though, and knowing if this issue would be salient on Election Day 2022 is hard to tell this early. Currently I rate the race Likely R because Abbott isn't a wildly unpopular figure and this is Texas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I hope Beto announces, we need a candidate for Gov as McCounghey is cheering on Beto, he probably isn't running

If Beto runs, McConaughey probably doesn't and ends up endorsing Beto.

And I also would agree that I think the ERCOT power grid situation could possibly be the biggest election issue in Texas assuming it's still an issue come November 2022. If the election was held today it most certainly would, but Abbott would probably still be the favorite (albeit maybe a bit narrowly).

Weatherization and power prices does have negative downsides for Abbott that Ds could use to their advantage. Abbott has said he wants to make weatherization mandatory or whatnot. It's likely that if the costs for utilities are high enough, they would pass the cost of that onto consumers, thus resulting in higher electricity bills. Usage of the grid soars in the summer, and that could have a tendency to raise costs. Weatherization also has potential to make the grid less efficient in the summer, which might further increase electricity bills. Abbott may well get blamed for what ensues.
On the other hand, Abbott might wind up handling the situation masterfully and turn it into an undistilled positive. Or we might get a mix of the two. Only time will tell.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beta o'dork once SHAMEFULLY said that churches that oppose gay marriage should lose their tax exemptions.

That was awful and even got pushback by some liberals.

Beta O'dork is damaged goods. He is authoritarian.

Agreed.  O'Rourke needs to fully commit to this proposition and call for ALL churches to lose their tax exemptions.  

That alone is another several points added to Abbott's margin of victory.

At least a several points.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bold, gutsy. Never change, Dule!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Alright alright alright then.

I think I’m gonna take a long, well-deserved break from following politics too closely for the benefit of my personal life and mental health. Matthew McConaughey running might have been the only thing that could have kept me invested.

Goodbye friends. I’ll come back after Dems are slaughtered next year I’m sure. Probably much sooner if I’m being honest because this s—t is like a drug. But I am gonna TRY at least for a while to keep a distance because it’s only inflicting unnecessary pain, misery, and disappointment on me at the moment, At least McConaughey would have been entertaining.

Best of luck. I'll be missing your generally quite excellent postings!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Texas winter storm was a once in a century event and other storms in other states have caused worse damage too .

Wanna take that back?

He has no need to. He's mostly right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.chron.com/politics/article/Texas-railroad-commissioner-Sarah-Stogner-video-16927525.php

lmao
https://twitter.com/Sarah4RRC/status/1493041677266829315
Semi NSFW for the twitter link so no embed.

LOL
good call on not embedding.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Houston Chronicle is breaking what also could be a big news story - that someone seems to have testified before the state legislature under oath saying that the Governor ordered him to demand maximum prices for power during the storm.
Though I don't have any baseline expectations here, this is probably another story to watch.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Remember not to extrapolate too much on basis of primary turnout results.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Remember not to extrapolate too much on basis of primary turnout results.

Primary turnout is more predictive than polls at this point. It was one of the key indicators rebuffing the polling narrative in 2020. So forgive me if I don't think we should just forget about it. Obviously, the margins/turnout aren't predictive in of itself but comparatively, it is.

Even assuming what you said was true (a rather dubious assertion), correlation does not mean causation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Those El Paso numbers (and I think other populated counties too?) are huge and show that it’s not just Zapata county it’s swaths of people

Yes, this is why the narrative that it’s just some rural/small-town border counties in the RGV/South TX that will barely make a dent in the inevitable D trend and be completely overwhelmed by massive D shifts in the metro areas is flawed. If all those 'smaller' counties and El Paso/Hidalgo trend strongly to the right and Houston remains stagnant, even Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin very likely won’t flip the state this decade.

We’ll see what happens, but right now, TX isn’t looking like "GA 2016" but more like a (more) Republican mirror image of MN. That could change, so Republicans can’t get overconfident, but I don’t think TX becoming a blue state any time soon is quite as inevitable as it’s made out to be.

in order for those shifts to matter though, the GOP has to actually be cutting into Dems net vote margins otherwise they're just stopping Dems from winning as many votes as they could have.

In 2020 for instance, Biden still net more votes than Clinton out of El Paso, even if it swung right.

However, in Hidalgo, Trump cut Biden's margin (from HRC) by ~35k votes which is pretty substantial. However, unless you believe the GOP will start outright winning the County, the 38k remaining votes in Biden's margin isn't a lot to cut into.

A reminder that in just 1 cycle, Biden was able to net about 100k more votes out of Dallas and Travis counties a piece, and still expanded on Clinton's Harris County margin by about 60k votes despite it's "stagnation". That more than cancels out Hidalgo.

If the GOP wants to hold Texas, Hidalgo doesn't do much unless it actually becomes strongly GOP leaning, but increasing raw vote margins in areas that already heavily favour them but have low turnout would probably go much further

You could use the same argument for Dems. It's probably not worth it to invest in rural Texas, but heavily minority parts of Dallas and Houston in particularly have quite poor turnout; juicing that up could really help them. Even if Houston stagnates, if turnout increases Dems can still net more raw votes out of it.

My guess is Texas is in reach for Dems going forwards but it takes a bit before it actually votes to the left of the nation.

It’s true that these counties alone will not hold off a few cycles of sustained shifts in the metros. But the idea that the triangle metro counties can all keep shifting hard left forever in a neutral environment is not very realistic. Biden already handily carried the moderate and independent vote in Texas and at some point these counties max out under the current electorate (as has been stated about Miami-Dade). Maybe the electorate changes eventually with demographic change, but that takes time

Ye it's def fair because a lot of people take the metros shifting left for granted

I would say Austin is prolly close to getting as blue as it's going to get but population growth should assist Dems, they just won't gain as dramatically as they have these past few cycles. However, it's also the metro I'm most certain in as there's really no reason it'd suddenly start going hard right and it can't get much bluer.

Dallas County itself is probably getting pretty close to it's max for Dems as basically the entire County leans pretty heavily left. However, Dallas Counties turnout especially in the heavily minority areas is really bad so if they invest they still have votes to net out of it. However, the neighboring suburban Counties all seem likely to continue shifting left again from demographic change alone, but probably won't net Dems as many votes since a lot of folks moving to them vote GOP, it's just more of them vote Dem.

Harris County is a simillar situation to Dallas with the turnout but I actually think the GOP has more room to fall because several of the GOP pockets are because of things such as like the oil industry which are becoming less and less the focus of the metro's economy. Ft. Bend will almost centainly continue to get bluer. I think the County will shift left but I'd be curious to see if the GOP can expand their raw vote margins in Montgomery County.

San Antonio is a bit weird because it's inbetween an El-Paso type city and a Dallas type city, both in terms of size and culture. There seems to be less white collar development going on, so I honestly think Dems are going to be somewhat disappointed in Bexar County going forwards. Also, it's suburbs generally seem to have re-aligned slightly ahead of Dallas and Houston's.

The GOP has over 600k votes they can afford to lose which may seem like a lot but as soon as you start doing the math it's not a very secure buffer. However, I really do question if Dems will net another additional 100k votes out of Dallas and Travis in 2024 and beyond.

Thanks for this interesting post. You made some good educated guesses and observations.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Who? Atlas red avatars?

Yeah gotta agree. Like most people who care about this have politically developed viewpoints and are locks for O Rourke in November. Gun Control I think is sadly one of those issues that really doesn't matter till it personally affects you. I wouldn't be shocked if O' Rourke has a slight boost in a small county like Uvalde in the GE for this reason, but obviously that'd be pretty insignificant electorally overall.

O'Rouke was attacking the Governor for his handling of the power outage and utilities, and called his policies "socialism". I'd like to see more of that. Abbott has real weak spots, but O'Rouke needs a really disciplined campaign. I don't know that he's able to run such a campaign.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Who? Atlas red avatars?

Yeah gotta agree. Like most people who care about this have politically developed viewpoints and are locks for O Rourke in November. Gun Control I think is sadly one of those issues that really doesn't matter till it personally affects you. I wouldn't be shocked if O' Rourke has a slight boost in a small county like Uvalde in the GE for this reason, but obviously that'd be pretty insignificant electorally overall.

O'Rouke was attacking the Governor for his handling of the power outage and utilities, and called his policies "socialism". I'd like to see more of that. Abbott has real weak spots, but O'Rouke needs a really disciplined campaign. I don't know that he's able to run such a campaign.

Ye I agree, that was an issue that had more universal impacts throughout Texas, D or R it was something that people saw firsthand. The main issue I see with Beto is he isn't able to define himself, especially after the Dem 2020 Pres primary. He keeps going back from doing hyper porgressive political stunts and then trying to moderate and it just comes off badly.

I am glad to see the past few cycles generally, there has been more serious turnout and engagement efforts by Texas Dems, and O Rourke Counties to be a big part of that. This isn't a winning campaign but a larger part of a foundation for TX Dems.

You raise good points. I'll add more.
Most people vote on basis of what impacts them personally and what they think is in their interests at a given time. And in Texas, differential turnout makes the electorate significantly more tilted towards UMC conservatives than if, say, we had compulsory voting. This can be seen in class-based patterns that have really only gotten weaker in recent years.
What makes the outages so fertile in terms of a campaign is that it impacted everyone, even  these constituencies that are unusually likely to turn out. My local state rep, in a mailer sent to my residence, touted efforts to do "utility reform", which says to me that Rs knew this was a potential vulnerability and so they have pre-empetively sought to neuter it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

Would you say Texas is or isn't more pro-gun than Florida?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

With all the people in that room, yes I'm sure you somehow knew exactly who was booing him and who wasn't. Just stop.

Also tbf Uvalde is still an R County that will prolly vote for Cornyn

Might explain why it has a R mayor who has hardline attitudes on immigration.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just got a YouTube ad from Collin Allred.
Nothing from Beto yet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just got a YouTube ad from Collin Allred.
Nothing from Beto yet.

Beto is apparently not up on TV yet, which is concerning imo.

Yeah, Abbott is glowing to blow him out of the water on the airwaves if he's not careful.
Texas is an expensive state to campaign in and an incumbent governor of Texas is never going to be short on money there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Got an ad from Greg Abbott. He talked about how he waited tables and said that hard work was important. He said he would invest in education, the energy future of Texas, and keep taxes low to help families.
Interesting messaging.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just left country themed A&M Bar in College Station, It was packed with trump supporting Aggies whispering about just how much of a terrible job Abbot was doing and how extreme the Texas abortion ban was.

Either extremely pro-life or pro-choice looks extreme. Either you have exceptions or you risk losing at the ballot box. Most people have nuanced views on abortion.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I got an ad earlier today from the Beto campaign. They said that a law Abbott signed into law lacks exemption for rape, incest, or if the mother's life is in danger.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just got an ad on Youtube from Beth van Duyne, talking tough on "criminal illegals". She leaned in on her career as mayor of Irving to add heft.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just got an ad on Youtube from Beth van Duyne, talking tough on "criminal illegals". She leaned in on her career as mayor of Irving to add heft.

Does she even have a race?

I don't think this election is likely to be hugely competitive, but it's probably the weakest of all the GOP seats in North Texas. The GOP even had to run it all the way into basically all of uber-red NE Tarrant County just to shore it up.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just got an ad featuring ballerina shoes and then pivoting to talking about how those shoes were used to identify a girl who died at Uvalde, than accusing Greg Abbott of doing nothing substantial to help the people of Uvalde (at least that's what it sounded like).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm expecting an Abbott winning margin somewhere around 4 or 5 points at this stage. The margins Abbott will get from rural TX are going to be brutal, but Beto looks well placed in more urban counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm expecting an Abbott winning margin somewhere around 4 or 5 points at this stage. The margins Abbott will get from rural TX are going to be brutal, but Beto looks well placed in more urban counties.

Nah, can't see Texas voting to the left of 2020. Maybe in a blue wave year, but not this time around. Abbott probably wins by 8 at the bare minimum.

Greg Abbott is at this point more of a lightning rod than Trump was and is under considerable scrutiny on several major issues. There is a strong Democratic base in the state at this point (though both outnumbered by Rs and very insufficient for victory by itself), and Beto is energizing it. Beto's always had a very hard hill to climb and Abbott's in a good place to win the election, but I expect moderates and liberals opposed to Abbott to varying degrees turning out to vote against him. Of course, Abbott is winning some moderates too, and his ads aren't too bad.
Nonetheless, with how polarized the state can get, I don't at all find it likely Abbott to win by double digit anything.