2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1522670972909805569

What the hell? The Democrats suck #$%@ at messaging!

Nobody outside partisans care about this .

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1522670972909805569

What the hell? The Democrats suck #$%@ at messaging!

As if their problems are just messaging.

[Matty]

Maybe abortion just isn’t as big an issue

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Social issues matter only when the economy is good. If the economy is bad then the economy takes priority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maybe abortion just isn’t as big an issue

There's adoption and do you know females go thru menapause anyways at 50 so we are less a conceptions society anyways, anyways Hillary told voters if you elected Trump, Roe would be overturned and it has

We always had adoption and parents had their own kids but when they had multiple children since the 80d the had adoption it's very expensive for maturity anyways they're not always paid

Biden Approvaks are even anyways it's a 303 map anyways and it's not the same as 2010 because we only had 92M votes we have 110/150 M votes so if Biden is even it will be a 303 map because Trump had 44% APPROVALS and he held onto the red Wall

The problem is gas prices right now

[2016]

CNN/SSRS Poll who has the GOP up 49-42 among "LIKELY VOTERS".

I say this again: Registered Voter Polls overestimating Democrats massivly.

[Devils30]

It was taken right after the leaked ruling...give it weeks/months before we see if it moves anything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CNN/SSRS Poll who has the GOP up 49-42 among "LIKELY VOTERS".

I say this again: Registered Voter Polls overestimating Democrats massivly.

Lol Rassy has Biden improving 45% the CNN has him at 40ish it's wrong

[Devils30]

Again...there's reason to think that some of the more controversial Rs will underperform the generic ballot considerably. The clips of major GOP candidates opposing abortion exceptions are not the thing people off this board will care about in May but they will make for great ads after Labor Day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Economy is good but the reason why voters are still mad because the Gas prices we gotta wait till see in the Fall to see if the Gas prices but there aren't anymore 33% as I see it 45 is close to 50%

[MT Treasurer]

It was taken right after the leaked ruling...give it weeks/months before we see if it moves anything.

That’s... not how this works. If this leak is really such a game changer and the issue is this salient already, why would it take months for the D shift to register?

[kwabbit]

Lol, the CNN has a 6pt shift to the GOP after the Roe decision was leaked. They had R+1 from April 28- May 1 and R +7 from May 3-5.

Senate Lean R —> Lean D

[2016]

The Economy is good but the reason why voters are still mad because the Gas prices we gotta wait till see in the Fall to see if the Gas prices but there aren't anymore 33% as I see it 45 is close to 50%

LOL, the Economy is bad, even the Stock Market tanked!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol, the CNN has a 6pt shift to the GOP after the Roe decision was leaked. They had R+1 from April 28- May 1 and R +7 from May 3-5.

Senate Lean R —> Lean D

The average American voter has a room temperature IQ, so this shouldn't surprise anyone.

The Economy is good but the reason why voters are still mad because the Gas prices we gotta wait till see in the Fall to see if the Gas prices but there aren't anymore 33% as I see it 45 is close to 50%

LOL, the Economy is bad, even the Stock Market tanked!

I know this is impossible for you, but quit cherry picking data.

[2016]

Lol, the CNN has a 6pt shift to the GOP after the Roe decision was leaked. They had R+1 from April 28- May 1 and R +7 from May 3-5.

Senate Lean R —> Lean D

The average American voter has a room temperature IQ, so this shouldn't surprise anyone.

The Economy is good but the reason why voters are still mad because the Gas prices we gotta wait till see in the Fall to see if the Gas prices but there aren't anymore 33% as I see it 45 is close to 50%

LOL, the Economy is bad, even the Stock Market tanked!

I know this is impossible for you, but quit cherry picking data.

There is no cherry picking. Democrats are done! People are voting on Inflation, Crime, Immigration and the Economy and not Abortion.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

The irony is that the Republicans are going to go full Social Issues Crazy when they get all this power in 2023.  They'll ride the bad economy to take advantage of it but you watch, when they get in, it's going to be the Religious Right that drives the car... and America off a cliff.

[kwabbit]

Lol, the CNN has a 6pt shift to the GOP after the Roe decision was leaked. They had R+1 from April 28- May 1 and R +7 from May 3-5.

Senate Lean R —> Lean D

The average American voter has a room temperature IQ, so this shouldn't surprise anyone.

The Economy is good but the reason why voters are still mad because the Gas prices we gotta wait till see in the Fall to see if the Gas prices but there aren't anymore 33% as I see it 45 is close to 50%

LOL, the Economy is bad, even the Stock Market tanked!

I know this is impossible for you, but quit cherry picking data.

Real wages have fallen, which is the best metric of economic welfare. There have been nominal wage gains and good employment numbers, but the average American has gotten poorer in real terms.

[LostInOhio]

I’d really like a poll asking voters how much they care about abortion rights, and if they care enough for it to affect their vote in November. I understand that abortion rights are important to the activist wing of the Democratic Party but how much do older voters (who are overwhelmingly more likely to vote) actually care about whether abortion is legal in their state or not?

[wbrocks67]

The survey of 1,577 U.S. adults, which was conducted from May 3 to May 6, found that registered voters initially preferred a generic Democrat (44%) over a generic Republican (39%) by 5 percentage points when asked how they would vote in their district if the congressional election were being held today.

But when voters were asked to choose instead between a “pro-choice Democrat” and a “pro-life Republican,” GOP support fell to 31% while Democratic support held steady — more than doubling the gap between the two candidates, to 13 percentage points.

https://news.yahoo.com/new-poll-reveals-warning-signs-for-gop-on-abortion-ahead-of-midterms-205241999.html

[MT Treasurer]

The survey of 1,577 U.S. adults, which was conducted from May 3 to May 6, found that registered voters initially preferred a generic Democrat (44%) over a generic Republican (39%) by 5 percentage points when asked how they would vote in their district if the congressional election were being held today.

But when voters were asked to choose instead between a “pro-choice Democrat” and a “pro-life Republican,” GOP support fell to 31% while Democratic support held steady — more than doubling the gap between the two candidates, to 13 percentage points.

https://news.yahoo.com/new-poll-reveals-warning-signs-for-gop-on-abortion-ahead-of-midterms-205241999.html

You probably should have mentioned that this was a YouGov poll, wbrocks.

They actually had Democrats ahead by six before the leak, so that tells you all you need to know.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I have always said in the red wave yrs we only got 92M votes, 2010/2014, it was same day voting, it's VBM it's unpredictable when it's 110/150M it won't be 150M but it won't be 110M either and we haven't have two duplicate maps two election cycles in a row, the H might flip but the S and Govs we will do well in and we're gonna win PA Sen the intriguing part is that we can get any red seat S seat to flip because Midterms aren't polarized like Prez elections where it's a blue and red divide, Sununu and Hogan won in 2018 and Sinema, Brown, Manchin, and Laura Kelly won and beat the traditional blue and red dovide

I am hoping Ryan, Fetterman, and Franken all three win even in this Environment

Users think only Approvals, Approvals lied otherwise Trump wouldn't have netted seats both election with 44/54% Approval it would of been an D title wave in both Houses not just one if Approvals were like 2010/ and in 2010 we lost the H but kept 53 S

We're not getting that many state by state polls either WHERE ARE THE WI, MN, ME, MI AND PA, OH POLL, as of now you can guess anything

[OSR stands with Israel]

I’d really like a poll asking voters how much they care about abortion rights, and if they care enough for it to affect their vote in November. I understand that abortion rights are important to the activist wing of the Democratic Party but how much do older voters (who are overwhelmingly more likely to vote) actually care about whether abortion is legal in their state or not?

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1522670972909805569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

[LostInOhio]

I’d really like a poll asking voters how much they care about abortion rights, and if they care enough for it to affect their vote in November. I understand that abortion rights are important to the activist wing of the Democratic Party but how much do older voters (who are overwhelmingly more likely to vote) actually care about whether abortion is legal in their state or not?

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1522670972909805569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

That’s not necessarily what I meant. It is possible to give an opinion on a certain topic when given a menu of options on a poll without actually personally caring much about it. For example, I couldn’t care less whether or not pangolins go extinct but if asked on a poll, I would say I support efforts to maintain their habitat & environments. That does not mean I would necessarily be motivated to vote for a candidate who believes the same as me or even list it as a top ten in terms of my political priorities.

Abortion is already functionally illegal in places like Texas but just how many women think about abortions as a serious issue that affects their daily lives? How many women even ever get abortions? The point I am trying to make is that I do not think this will be as big of an issue as Democrats think it will be in rallying midterm voters. If the GOP somehow came after contraception/birth control, though? Or if they targeted pornography? *That* certainly would.

[Unelectable Bystander]

The survey of 1,577 U.S. adults, which was conducted from May 3 to May 6, found that registered voters initially preferred a generic Democrat (44%) over a generic Republican (39%) by 5 percentage points when asked how they would vote in their district if the congressional election were being held today.

But when voters were asked to choose instead between a “pro-choice Democrat” and a “pro-life Republican,” GOP support fell to 31% while Democratic support held steady — more than doubling the gap between the two candidates, to 13 percentage points.

https://news.yahoo.com/new-poll-reveals-warning-signs-for-gop-on-abortion-ahead-of-midterms-205241999.html

Serious question: do you believe YouGov polls and think they provide valuable data?

[lfromnj]

https://www.wweek.com/news/2022/05/04/the-6th-district-food-chain-how-crypto-swallowed-the-race-for-a-new-congressional-seat/

By the way a bunch of rich crypto bros hopped into the new open Oregon seat.