2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Matty]

That poll seems way off.

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1393236468827672581

[Matty]

Who cares about polls lol

Yea, a dem +10 result is not happening. Sorry.

[Matty]

It is very disappointing that people who should know better (harry enten, nate silver, cohn, etc) are still retweeting QPAC as if its polling is adequate.

they have burned their reputation. They don't deserve our trust until they have an accurate cycle again

[Matty]

1. Biden isn't unpopular.

2. There is evidence to suggest that off year electorates are more favorable to democrats (who are much more educated) nowadays.

3. GOP is still crazy.

4. There are more democrats than Republicans.

5. Gerrymandering favors the GOP but not as much as it did last time they drew the maps.

6. Population growth is highly concentrated in Democrats areas (even in red states) and therefore even if Republicans gerrymander, Democrats should see some benefit.

7. GOP won a lot of the low hanging fruit in 2020.  They have to defend a lot of close districts, a lot more than Democrats do. 

8. Historical norms don't always play out.  Like in GWB's first term.  Also, if historical norms played out then Biden wouldn't have won the White House while losing so many House seats. 

In short.  I've seen no good analysis here to demonstrate that the GOP is a lock for the House.  It's just some combination of "historical norms" and "gerrymandering."  Weak. 

I don't understand why you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

The GOP needs to win a tiny tiny sliver of what dems needed to win in 2018, what repubs needed to win in 2010 or 1994, dems needed in 2006, etc.

EVEN IF DEMS MASSIVELY OVERPERFORM PREVIOUS IN-PARTY PERFORMANCES, there's still a large chance they lose the house, based purely on how tiny their majority is.

And by the way, of the special elections so far in 2021, the gop is outperforming 2020 margins by about 3%. That doesn't suggest the midterm electorate is going to be even more pro dem than 2020.

[Matty]

QPAC has dems 45 Reps 44 in newest poll for 2022

[Matty]

Lmao if you believe that

Just lmao

[Matty]

My view is that repubs win the house pop vote by a point of 2, and flip about 17 seats

They maintain their margins with WWC, make some inroads with the suburbs, and lose some ground with Latinos

[Matty]

It may not, but you can’t deny there has been political fallout

538 tracker shows a clear trend and the polling done on the the issue has been horrific for Biden

70%+ think the withdrawal has been done poorly, and that was before the troops were blown up

I continue to be perplexed why you are putting your credibility on the line here.

There is, to date, zero evidence that 2022 is going to be an abnormal midterm.

It’s much safer to err on the side of history than on theories that originated in your own brain

Harry enten has a great article on cnn now with hard data showing why 2022 is looking like a likely house takeover for GOp

Senate is a toss up

[Matty]

It may not, but you can’t deny there has been political fallout

538 tracker shows a clear trend and the polling done on the the issue has been horrific for Biden

70%+ think the withdrawal has been done poorly, and that was before the troops were blown up

I continue to be perplexed why you are putting your credibility on the line here.

There is, to date, zero evidence that 2022 is going to be an abnormal midterm.

It’s much safer to err on the side of history than on theories that originated in your own brain

Harry enten has a great article on cnn now with hard data showing why 2022 is looking like a likely house takeover for GOp

Senate is a toss up

Yeah, Yeah,, blah we have 500 days til Election and they are getting crushed in VA and Cali Election abd we supposed to believe they're gonna win and the last time they won was 2014

Crushed in ca?

They are on track to overperform there by like 20 points

VA will be a 5 point dem win

Again, the elephant in the room is that the gop doesn’t even need a great showing in 2022.

Only a mediocre one

[Matty]

Why is 538 talking about a wave year?

It doesn’t need to be a wave year

The gop can lose the house PV by 2 points and have a good chance of taking the house

[Matty]

Echelon insights for the third straight month has found dems ahead by 10 on their GCB poll

It’s obviously a sampling issue. It’s just not correct.

Patrick Ruffini needs to address this

[Matty]

qtrash has GOP up 46-43 in their generic ballot poll

dems hold 8 point lead among whites who went to college

but dems only up 5 among hispanics.

and down 68-19 among WWC

[Matty]

The ironic part about this is that Bidens RV approval in the last poll was +2, and Ds were +1 on GCB. Now Bidens approval is -7, but the GCB is higher at +2.

Go ahead believing that democrats will win the midterms with Biden approvals at -12

It would be the single most astounding political event since the civil war

[Matty]

New Wapo poll has R+10 on generic ballot

[Matty]

I don't get when pollsters do this - if we're talking 882 RVs for 8 states, that means the sample size is like 110 for each state. That's a terrible sample.

while true, it jives with the larger national sample.

a +10 gop result would be a nightmare for dems in purple area

[Matty]

Would Katie Porter Survive an R+13 margin?

[Matty]

A GOP +8 result would probably net them another OC seat

[Matty]

50-41 is probably a bit high, but Emerson was accurate in VA

[Matty]

New abc/wapo poll of likely 2022 voters

Gop 54
Dems 41

[Matty]

Not only does the gop lead among *RV* in the nbc poll, but there is a massive 17 point enthusiasm gap as well.

Fwiw, the gop rarely leads among RV in midterm polls

[Matty]

In line with an R+3 environment nationally

[Matty]

The yougov gcb is absurd

It has been the same Margin for almost a year

[Matty]

Lol at anyone believing gop has 12 point lead

[Matty]

The burden is on abc/WAPO to explain why the hell the GB went from R+10 to D+1