2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

I don't agree with PA-07 being Lean R. Even in this environment, Wild is a strong incumbent and Scheller already lost in 2020 and nearly lost her primary this year to an unknown opponent despite having unlimited cash

[2016]

I don't agree with PA-07 being Lean R. Even in this environment, Wild is a strong incumbent and Scheller already lost in 2020 and nearly lost her primary this year to an unknown opponent despite having unlimited cash

Under the new Redistricting Lines drawn PA-7 is waaay more Republican compared to 2020. You have to take this into account too.

[Politician]

I don't agree with PA-07 being Lean R. Even in this environment, Wild is a strong incumbent and Scheller already lost in 2020 and nearly lost her primary this year to an unknown opponent despite having unlimited cash

[wbrocks67]

I don't agree with PA-07 being Lean R. Even in this environment, Wild is a strong incumbent and Scheller already lost in 2020 and nearly lost her primary this year to an unknown opponent despite having unlimited cash

Under the new Redistricting Lines drawn PA-7 is waaay more Republican compared to 2020. You have to take this into account too.

It's only Trump by a few points isn't it? Where it was Biden by a few in 2020? I don't think it changed that dramatically where it still wouldn't be a toss-up. This is a tough year for Wild in a semi-tougher district but Scheller is not a great candidate.

[lfromnj]

Wild slightly underperformed Biden in a district that more or less demographically matches the entire nation. She isn't a "strong incumbent" You just have personal attachment to her. Even her 2018 performance wasn't anything like Conor Lamb's, she just won a Clinton +1 seat by like 7 points.

[Roll Roons]

I don't agree with PA-07 being Lean R. Even in this environment, Wild is a strong incumbent and Scheller already lost in 2020 and nearly lost her primary this year to an unknown opponent despite having unlimited cash

Under the new Redistricting Lines drawn PA-7 is waaay more Republican compared to 2020. You have to take this into account too.

It's only Trump by a few points isn't it? Where it was Biden by a few in 2020? I don't think it changed that dramatically where it still wouldn't be a toss-up. This is a tough year for Wild in a semi-tougher district but Scheller is not a great candidate.

Wishcast all you want but she has an unexceptional electoral history in a very close district in a year that will favor the GOP. Scheller may not be amazing either but it’s not like she’s Mastriano. Do the math.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1529851619646525440?t=1YV0KfQbUwrvAOWi...

[MATTROSE94]

President Biden has a 70 % Disapproval Rating in Michigan according to a new EPIC-MRA Poll

https://www.wlns.com/news/local-news/poll-michigan-residents-want-roe-v-wade-to-stand/

Michigans want Roe vs Wade to stand by a large margin but that has no bearings at Bidens JA.

If the 70 % Disapproval Number is even close to be accurate the Election is over folks.

I believe this, but can't open the file because I'm in Italy right now.

Haven’t you repeatedly said that US Citizens would never be allowed to travel abroad again?

Italy does have an N95 mandate in place, so maybe it is safe in SnowLabradors mind to travel there. He also might have family in Italy as well.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1529904628837625857?s=20&t=65lyNf...

Weed party on MN 2nd.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1529904628837625857?s=20&t=65lyNf...

Weed party on MN 2nd.

It would have flipped anyways

[lfromnj]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1531776039537582084?cxt=HHwWiIC9gaeM-8EqAAAA[/tweet

Both Weed parties are now on the ballot for MN02

[Continential]

Fix the tweet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The weed parties don't pull exclusively from Democratic voters, especially outstate. Like go compare the Presidential numbers in any rural county to the Senate numbers in 2020. For example MN-01:

Republican Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence 202,121 53.88%
Democratic-Farmer-Labor Joseph R. Biden and Kamala Harris 164,139 43.75%

Legal Marijuana Now Kevin O'Connor 22,717 6.19%
Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis Oliver Steinberg 7,306 1.99%
Republican Jason Lewis 182,851 49.82%
Democratic-Farmer-Labor Tina Smith 153,895 41.93%

Or for the best example the most rural seat, MN-07:
Republican Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence 234,753 63.63%
Democratic-Farmer-Labor Joseph R. Biden and Kamala Harris 126,528 34.29%

Legal Marijuana Now Kevin O'Connor 19,922 5.49%
Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis Oliver Steinberg 5,758 1.59%
Republican Jason Lewis 213,584 58.86%
Democratic-Farmer-Labor Tina Smith 123,380 34.00%
Write-In WRITE-IN 250 0.07%

Granted this isn't such a seat. Although I doubt having two such candidates matters more than just having one.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I don't agree with PA-07 being Lean R. Even in this environment, Wild is a strong incumbent and Scheller already lost in 2020 and nearly lost her primary this year to an unknown opponent despite having unlimited cash

Under the new Redistricting Lines drawn PA-7 is waaay more Republican compared to 2020. You have to take this into account too.

It's only Trump by a few points isn't it? Where it was Biden by a few in 2020? I don't think it changed that dramatically where it still wouldn't be a toss-up. This is a tough year for Wild in a semi-tougher district but Scheller is not a great candidate.

It went from Biden +5 to Biden +1

[Minnesota Mike]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1531776039537582084?cxt=HHwWiIC9gaeM-8EqAAAA[/tweet

Both Weed parties are now on the ballot for MN02

One, two what's the difference? They will just split the protest vote between them instead of it all going to one weed candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think what people fail to understand is that the weed parties are mostly just a repository for generic protest votes (basically what the Independence Party was back when they were a serious thing) rather than getting ideologically motivated votes.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1532797679247536135?t=RMFe8sG7WYMMLvI1tkZ...

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1532797679247536135?t=RMFe8sG7WYMMLvI1tkZ...

Incredible result for a D-leaning pollster. I think I’m ready to back Youngkin for president. Proven winner

[Gracile]

Cook has rated the new NH-01 and NH-02 as tossups:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1533891843817148421

This means that they now have initial ratings for every new congressional district (see chart here)-

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

[wesmoorenerd]

Cook has rated the new NH-01 and NH-02 as tossups:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1533891843817148421

This means that they now have initial ratings for every new congressional district (see chart here)-

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Tossup/Tilt R seems fair for NH-01. NH-02, I think, is Lean D.

[Gracile]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-primaries-june-8-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball has made two rating changes, both in favor of Republicans:

IA-03 (Axne, D): Toss-up > Leans Republican
OR-05 (Open): Leans Democratic > Toss-up

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I have not yet bothered to make confidence level predictions for each seat, but currently I think (assuming the activist judges bring back the struck down LA map) that we win the same number of seats that we got in 2016 to the exact number.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Golden is leading Poliquin by 8 pts stop with this ME 2 going R

[Lambsbread]

Another great recruitment from the Republican Party!

https://twitter.com/ehananoki/status/1534904409339076608?s=20&t=etP5z8T5yqoR...

[2016]

Sabato/Kondik update their House Ratings after the June 7th Primaries


Republican 214
Democrat 193
Toss Up 28