2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1527422590888951827

Enough said.

Because Rich Baris's word is infallible?  I had never heard of this guy until a couple weeks ago and my little bit of googling shows he is a right wing internet troll who's firm must do some polling but I couldn't find any. Not listed on 538 as far as I can tell.

If you must obsess over polling follow the averages. The Marists and Rasmussen's will cancel each other out.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1527422590888951827

Enough said.

Because Rich Baris's word is infallible?  I had never heard of this guy until a couple weeks ago and my little bit of googling shows he is a right wing internet troll who's firm must do some polling but I couldn't find any. Not listed on 538 as far as I can tell.

If you must obsess over polling follow the averages. The Marists and Rasmussen's will cancel each other out.

Isn't it weird how this right-wing guy has a far more accurate history with his polling than 538's averages, Marist, NBC, ABC/WaPo, Ipsos, Yougov, Quinnipiac, (I can go on) or any of the other legacy "trusted" outlets out there?

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1527422590888951827

Enough said.

Because Rich Baris's word is infallible?  I had never heard of this guy until a couple weeks ago and my little bit of googling shows he is a right wing internet troll who's firm must do some polling but I couldn't find any. Not listed on 538 as far as I can tell.

If you must obsess over polling follow the averages. The Marists and Rasmussen's will cancel each other out.

Isn't it weird how this right-wing guy has a far more accurate history with his polling than 538's averages, Marist, NBC, ABC/WaPo, Ipsos, Yougov, Quinnipiac, (I can go on) or any of the other legacy "trusted" outlets out there?

Does he? I have no idea, I can't find a history of his polls. Care to share a link?

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1527422590888951827

Enough said.

Because Rich Baris's word is infallible?  I had never heard of this guy until a couple weeks ago and my little bit of googling shows he is a right wing internet troll who's firm must do some polling but I couldn't find any. Not listed on 538 as far as I can tell.

If you must obsess over polling follow the averages. The Marists and Rasmussen's will cancel each other out.

Isn't it weird how this right-wing guy has a far more accurate history with his polling than 538's averages, Marist, NBC, ABC/WaPo, Ipsos, Yougov, Quinnipiac, (I can go on) or any of the other legacy "trusted" outlets out there?

You’re right that Marist / NBC / WaPo have been off for years (always towards Dems), but Quinnipiac has been much more solid at actively updating their methodology and generally being pretty accurate (still have missed a bit but that’s any polling company). Also worth noting Quinnipiac has the generic ballot at R+5 so yes I am skeptical of Marist and NBC to put it lightly.

[lfromnj]

https://qctimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-esther-joy-king-leading-17th-congressional-district-fundraising/article_b8355674-81c0-5c3b-8b29-4b56adb13157.amp.html

By the way for some reason esther joy King is a really good fundraiser for this biden +7 seat in Illinois. Also for some reason IL Dems left this seat really weak.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://qctimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-esther-joy-king-leading-17th-congressional-district-fundraising/article_b8355674-81c0-5c3b-8b29-4b56adb13157.amp.html

By the way for some reason esther joy King is a really good fundraiser for this biden +7 seat in Illinois. Also for some reason IL Dems left this seat really weak.

If it turns out to be a red wave I think it will be characterized by this seat flipping and not being particularly close due to turbo-charged trends and getting no turnout from Rockford

[lfromnj]

https://qctimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-esther-joy-king-leading-17th-congressional-district-fundraising/article_b8355674-81c0-5c3b-8b29-4b56adb13157.amp.html

By the way for some reason esther joy King is a really good fundraiser for this biden +7 seat in Illinois. Also for some reason IL Dems left this seat really weak.

If it turns out to be a red wave I think it will be characterized by this seat flipping and not being particularly close due to turbo-charged trends and getting no turnout from Rockford

There aren't that many trends in this seat. Replacing Rurals/Tazewell with more of East Rockford/McClean makes it much more stagnant.
One advantage Democrats have is that their main leading candidate is a weatherman although the bonus for being one will probably be reduced because the of the gerrymander streching across multiple media markets.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://qctimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-esther-joy-king-leading-17th-congressional-district-fundraising/article_b8355674-81c0-5c3b-8b29-4b56adb13157.amp.html

By the way for some reason esther joy King is a really good fundraiser for this biden +7 seat in Illinois. Also for some reason IL Dems left this seat really weak.

If it turns out to be a red wave I think it will be characterized by this seat flipping and not being particularly close due to turbo-charged trends and getting no turnout from Rockford

There aren't that many trends in this seat. Replacing Rurals/Tazewell with more of East Rockford/McClean makes it much more stagnant.
One advantage Democrats have is that their main leading candidate is a weatherman although the bonus for being one will probably be reduced because the of the gerrymander streching across multiple media markets.

You don't think Litesa Wallace will win?

[2016]

President Biden has a 70 % Disapproval Rating in Michigan according to a new EPIC-MRA Poll

https://www.wlns.com/news/local-news/poll-michigan-residents-want-roe-v-wade-to-stand/

Michigans want Roe vs Wade to stand by a large margin but that has no bearings at Bidens JA.

If the 70 % Disapproval Number is even close to be accurate the Election is over folks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes it's over and Kelly leads in AZ 50/33 and WARNOCK is leading 50/45 and SISOLAK is leading 46/33 Biden has the same Approvals 45/54 as Trump did in both 2018/20 and Trump lost the EDay but gained H seats and at 44 the inc always loses H seats just wait till we vote, it's 5 mnths it's June and Summers are short

Rs can't call AZ polls biased because a St Leo poll has DeSantis up 49/33

[SnowLabrador]

President Biden has a 70 % Disapproval Rating in Michigan according to a new EPIC-MRA Poll

https://www.wlns.com/news/local-news/poll-michigan-residents-want-roe-v-wade-to-stand/

Michigans want Roe vs Wade to stand by a large margin but that has no bearings at Bidens JA.

If the 70 % Disapproval Number is even close to be accurate the Election is over folks.

I believe this, but can't open the file because I'm in Italy right now.

[Roll Roons]

President Biden has a 70 % Disapproval Rating in Michigan according to a new EPIC-MRA Poll

https://www.wlns.com/news/local-news/poll-michigan-residents-want-roe-v-wade-to-stand/

Michigans want Roe vs Wade to stand by a large margin but that has no bearings at Bidens JA.

If the 70 % Disapproval Number is even close to be accurate the Election is over folks.

I believe this, but can't open the file because I'm in Italy right now.

Haven’t you repeatedly said that US Citizens would never be allowed to travel abroad again?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This 70 percent gas been set in motion already with Trump in 2020, 70 percent on the wrong track with a Honeymoon period of us getting Stimulus checks anyways

[Minnesota Mike]

President Biden has a 70 % Disapproval Rating in Michigan according to a new EPIC-MRA Poll

https://www.wlns.com/news/local-news/poll-michigan-residents-want-roe-v-wade-to-stand/

Michigans want Roe vs Wade to stand by a large margin but that has no bearings at Bidens JA.

If the 70 % Disapproval Number is even close to be accurate the Election is over folks.

Very misleading.

Rating Explanation
Excellent/Good=Positive
Poor/Fair=Negative

Hell I would probably rate Biden as doing a Fair job and do not view his performance negatively.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1529068758471479297

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

President Biden has a 70 % Disapproval Rating in Michigan according to a new EPIC-MRA Poll

https://www.wlns.com/news/local-news/poll-michigan-residents-want-roe-v-wade-to-stand/

Michigans want Roe vs Wade to stand by a large margin but that has no bearings at Bidens JA.

If the 70 % Disapproval Number is even close to be accurate the Election is over folks.

Very misleading.

Rating Explanation
Excellent/Good=Positive
Poor/Fair=Negative

Hell I would probably rate Biden as doing a Fair job and do not view his performance negatively.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1529068758471479297

Using ‘Fair’ as negative is an obvious trap.
People interpret ‘Fair’ as neutral to positive.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1529125971089149953

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1529125971089149953

Huh, I thought Republicans were ideological purists and Democrats were the big tent party.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1529125971089149953

Huh, I thought Republicans were ideological purists and Democrats were the big tent party.

I was thinking the same thing. Why is it that a diverse set of views keeps winning R primaries while D’s continue to throw incumbent moderates out on the street?

[ajc0918]

D+4 generic ballot on Morning Consult. Was D+2 on May 18th and EVEN on May 4th.
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1529451927565631488?s=20&t=GE_-ejk...

[Unelectable Bystander]

D+4 generic ballot on Morning Consult. Was D+2 on May 18th and EVEN on May 4th.
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1529451927565631488?s=20&t=GE_-ejk...

Does this imply a D trend? If so, Harris just came out with an R +2 poll and the highly regard YouGov is even R +4

Also, that Twitter account is quite bizarre. A dog asking for a treat for releasing (strictly D biased) polls?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

D+4 generic ballot on Morning Consult. Was D+2 on May 18th and EVEN on May 4th.
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1529451927565631488?s=20&t=GE_-ejk...

Does this imply a D trend? If so, Harris just came out with an R +2 poll and the highly regard YouGov is even R +4

Also, that Twitter account is quite bizarre. A dog asking for a treat for releasing (strictly D biased) polls?

It's a bot someone wrote that just reposts all polls that are plugged in to the 538 database. Whoever wrote it decided to make it look like it was his dog doing it. It's cute!

[Gracile]

Cook has made some rating changes due to New York redistricting:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1529459744154451968

NY-11 has also been taken off the board.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Does anybody know which races cook changed today? It’s behind the paywall and charging that much is ridiculous

[Politician]

Does anybody know which races cook changed today? It’s behind the paywall and charging that much is ridiculous

Most of these are due to the national environment moving towards Republicans.
AZ-4: Likely D->Lean D
CA-40: Likely R->Lean R (Kim at risk of missing top two)
CA-49: Likely D->Lean D
CT-2: Safe D->Likely D
CT-5: Likely D->Lean D
IL-14: Lean D->Likely D
MN-1: Likely R->Safe R (Carnahan not nominated)
NV-1: Lean D->Tossup
OR-5: Lean D->Tossup (Skinner nominated)
PA-1: Likely R->Safe R
PA-7: Tossup->Lean R
PA-10: Likely R->Safe R

[2016]

Here are the Full Cook House Ratings
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

This is what I said would happen Months ago. There are now enough Seats East of the Mississippi River to give Republicans a House Majority.

Cook has it
208 Republican (incl Likely & Leaners)
188 Democrat (incl Likely & Leaners)
32 Toss Up

Republicans only need 10 of the 32 Toss Up Seats based on Cooks current Ratings to give them a House Majority while Democrats would need to win 30 out of the 32 Toss Up Seats to retain it.

That's why most of the Political Handicappers in D. C. have the House as a Likely Republican Control.