2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope we can win IA 2 which is only 22 votes short of a victory

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Acton leading in OH and DeSANTIS only tied, D's are gonna have a big waves after we win VA, Cali and NJ in 2021, I am excited.  We are gonna get the wave insurance seats we lost in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's are at 47/42 I don't see how they win in 2022, even at this early date, they are the Insurrectionists party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have 500 days til the Election D's are gonna win WI, PA, NH, GA and 1 wave insurence seats from IA, OH, NC and if Sand jumps in against Grassley Ryan and Sand will be in Senate.

Hakeem JEFFERIES is gonna be Speaker D's lead on Generic ballot 47:42

Don't tell me about that 2018 Election stuff we won OH, IA, NC and FL by a PVI rating of 5 pts the same exact lead we lead on Generic ballot, in 2008/12 if you want to argue about a PVI go argue with pbower2A

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, but we didn't even win TX 6 and polls told us that we were gonna make the Runoff

We can very well have a divided Congress RH and DS just like in 2010, 2012, 2018 Outparty won H and Inparty won S

I take all these polls with a grain of salt, it would be different if we weren't on a Covid Recession


Just like QU said Biden plus 14, I expect the Rs to take the H, it can indeed happen they have won the H, they won H in 16/20 Elections

Anyways the reason by the polls are inflated is due to approval of Stimulus, the Rs are threatening to block more stimulus when Unemployment is gonna be renewed again in September, especially the 300 extra for unemployment, then where are Biden Approvals gonna be, we have 30 T in debt and he proposed 6T in new spending

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You guys really are paying attention to polls which are meaningless a yr out from the Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would remind all these Doomers that predict a Red wave Rs typically suppose to net 23 seats in a typical midterm, the fact D's are tied and Biden is at 50 isn't bad news, unless Biden has a subpar approvals, D's will do well in the Midterms
D's didn't win 33H seats in 2017, D's won them in 2018, as s I said befire blue wave is meaningless a yr before an Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Generic ballot test doesn't mean anything, unless Rs start taking a lead on it, they're not taking the H right now it's tied but it's been plus 5 and unless Biden is a 44 percent Prez, the D's aren't gonna lose their lead on the ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't losing any IL seats as long as Pritzker has control of Redistricting

They still have WI as Lean R for Senate and it's a Tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares about polls lol

Yea, a dem +10 result is not happening. Sorry.

Neither is an R winning the PVI, this poll is good news for wave insurance candidates though. The Rs haven't won the PVI since 2014 R +5 that was 7 yrs ago

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares about polls lol

You were the very one that said donate, polls are obviously critical to donations, Whaley and Van DEMING'S need donations they aren't rich like Jackson, Ryan or Crist but they can use donations too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1395746724879216646?s=21

A lot of the GOP's optimism comes from historical trends, not actual polling for 2022.

To be fair, polling is unreliable at best. Answering polls have become associated with being a Democrat.

Polls struggle when Trump is on the ticket. When he's not, they're largely pretty accurate.

That's why in the last midterm of a Democratic president, polling accurately reflected Hagan getting re-elected, Cotton winning by single digits, Ernst narrowly beating Braley, Walker narrowly beating Burke, Quinn getting re-elected, Brown beating Hogan, Georgia races going to a runoff because they were so close, and last but not least the national house vote going narrowly Republican after being a Democrat lead or roughly tied for most of the year and many "reputable" pollsters showing Democratic leads.

I'm sure we'll get a lot of THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2014 responses, just like the THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2016 responses in 2020 I became very familiar with, and like the THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2010 responses back in 2014. And, hot take here, we'll get THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2020 responses in '24.

The Rs lost the PVI In 2016 by 2, 2018 be y 8 and 2020 by four, it's been 7 yes since Rs won the PVI and Biden isn't at 40 percent Approvals like Obama and Trump were


THE ELECTION ISNT TOMORROW ITS 500 DAYS FROM NOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR DS TO WIN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need polls from KS, OH, NC and IA the fact that they are just giving us Approvals and not these polls shows that it's not plus 10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Val Deming's is gonna lose unfortunately

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is very disappointing that people who should know better (harry enten, nate silver, cohn, etc) are still retweeting QPAC as if its polling is adequate.

they have burned their reputation. They don't deserve our trust until they have an accurate cycle again

They use RV vs LV the RV plus up the D's numbers just like the QU poll has it plus nine on Generic ballot but it's probably like 4 pts because QU is known for using RV screen which helps D's alot

But at same time we have seen split voting behavior in AZ, OH and Rs are blocking Commission and the Election is 500 days from now.

We can have a very good Senate election while Rs still maintain dominance in Gov Elections

We need as many Senators as we can to help out H candidates to prevent an R takeover of the H, if RS win the H, they are known to become entrenched once they get power D's spent 12 and 8 yrs in Minority

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a close Election the PVI would be 2.5, it's a RV not LV sample in QU poll but Rs haven't won PVI since 2014 as long as we are in a Pandemic

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist isn't beating DeSantis especially not without HR 1, since DeSantis already up by 5/10 and he will Redistrict the map the way he wants and voter Suppression Laws passed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

States don't go the same way in Midterms as in Prez Election I have been saying this all along we can have Sen Abby and Sununu and Jackson and Ryan in the Senate together.  Also, Whitmer and D's loosing PA Gov mansion and then Hobbs and Laura Kelly can win their  Gov races, stay tuned 500 days til the Election

D's want DC Statehood, we have to expand the map to keep the H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good now we can stop saying like MT Treasurer says that WI is Lean R it's a Tossup, MT Treasurer developed that meme

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know why Cook and Sabato are keeping OH Lean R due to Gov race. But, OH can split it's votes for Gov and SEN, it did in 2018, but Brown won by six Ryan will win 51/49%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since 2022 will almost certainly be a red wave year, Kelly and Warnock are clear underdogs. Deal with it.

Does Herschel Walker strike you as a powerhouse?

No he isn't, the only person Blks care about isn't Tim Scott or Elder either but Conservative rapper KANYE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since 2022 will almost certainly be a red wave year, Kelly and Warnock are clear underdogs. Deal with it.

Does Herschel Walker strike you as a powerhouse?

No, but we're polarized enough that candidate quality doesn't matter.

Senator Sara Gideon agrees.

Gideon lost because Collins voted for the Cares Act, she is endangered now because she is obstruction of VR or HR1 so long Collins, that's why King will win easily in 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know that D's are dropping fast in the polls because they haven't passed anything since the Covid relief bill and it wasn't enough we need one more check

The only thing going is jobs but many of them are the same low skilled factory jobs that left it's not a come up

We will see where it goes from here but a landslide election isn't happening at the moment

D's are spending all their political capital on Infrastructure but not VR or HR 1, that faces a Hostile SCOTUS ESPECIALLY ON GERRYMANDERING DISTRICTS, HR 1 NEUTRALIZE GERRYMANDERING THAT MIGHT NOT PASS CRT TEST ANYWAYS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/key-battleground-states-house-least-211714432.html


Don't underestimate D's with 500 days left

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

lol no

As Dr William Barber said we have 599 til the Election, D's can still win, Did you know D's are plus 7 on Generic ballot

Rs are taking advantage of Voter Suppression but if D's have a big turnout not like a typical Midterm but a Prez Election we will net gain seats, in H and Senate 230 H Seat and 52+ we want Reparations and DC Statehood