PA-SEN: Would Pat Toomey have won?

[Sir Mohamed]

Looking at the PA results, do you think Toomey have won reelection against Fetterman? I think he would have been very vulnerable to a primary challenge, but if nominated, this would have been a pure tossup. Pretty much a coin flip, imho.

What do you think?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Toomey probably wins.

[Dani Rose]

Pretty willing to bank on it. Fetterman being to the left of the state as a whole took a backseat to Oz being so historically unlikable and unsuited to Pennsylvania, but against Toomey his political beliefs would have become more of an issue and dragged down his suburban vote.

(Quick edited addendum: I say that as someone whose views massively align with Fetterman's.)

[Pericles]

Undoubtedly, Democrats needed to have the stronger candidate to win in a state 3-4 points to the right of the nation.

[Adam Griffin]

Toomey would probably have scored a Ron Johnson-style margin - maybe slightly better.

[Lechasseur]

Toomey probably wins.

[free my dawg]

I believe so, between the stroke and Oz blowing just that much

[Podgy the Bear]

Almost a given.  Toomey has been a good politician and would have worn the center right Republican mantle rather well to appeal to swing voters.

And in a year where the media characterized an electorate with a "throw them out" mentality, this election has been enormously pro-incumbent--and the elections in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Ohio reflect that.  

[MargieCat]

Easily.

Heck, Dave McCormick might have even won.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Yep, pretty handily.

[wbrocks67]

I'm gonna go out and limb and say I'm not really sure, but I wouldn't be so convinced as many in this thread are. Toomey would've put up a better fight than Oz, but remember, he only beat McGinty by like 1.5% in 2016 and he couldn't top 50%. And that was a bad year for Democrats.

Meanwhile, Toomey's favorables are just god awful in PA. His only saving grace before was getting better margins in the suburbs, and I'm not really convinced that would've held up this year.

[LabourJersey]

I'm not sure Toomey would have won the primary, personally.

If he had run and won the primary, then he potentially would have won.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Everyone’s assuming he wins renomination after voting to convict Trump?

Had he not done so (but still votes to certify the election), I say he wins by a little more than Johnson did.

[Lief 🗽]

If you could somehow skip the primary, sure. But he would have been DOA there.

[Oryxslayer]

Everyone’s assuming he wins renomination after voting to convict Trump?

Had he not done so (but still votes to certify the election), I say he wins by a little more than Johnson did.

Yes, if Toomey's actions remain the same, but he runs for reelection, he probably gets primaried. But not by any of the candidates who actually ran this time, probably some right wing state legislator or Barletta again. Could Fetterman, or Lamb cause the dynamics of the race are infinitely shifted by Toomey running again, have won against not-Oz? Yes, especially with the Shapiro-slide at the top. But probably closer to the Biden numbers or a marginal race in the event of victory.

[Badger]

Toomey would probably have scored a Ron Johnson-style margin - maybe slightly better.

[Vosem]

Republicans won the House vote (although I'm not sure they would've won it if Democrats contested every race, eyeballing it I think so), so I think he would've (particularly against Fetterman who was a weak candidate). Hard to say, though; there might've been a right-wing insurgency against him a la Hoeven.

[wbrocks67]

Republicans won the House vote (although I'm not sure they would've won it if Democrats contested every race, eyeballing it I think so), so I think he would've (particularly against Fetterman who was a weak candidate). Hard to say, though; there might've been a right-wing insurgency against him a la Hoeven.

Ah I see we're still going with this narrative despite the actual results. Okay

[GALeftist]

Probably? Provided he won a primary that is which he would've probably been almost guaranteed to lose. But like if you look at Wisconsin RonJon easily saved Republicans' bacon there, and he's hardly a moderate hero; have to think that his centrist appeal plus incumbency would have countered Fetterman's appeal. Don't think it would've been a sure thing, though; he still would have been vulnerable to those underperfomances in Real Pennsylvania imo.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

"Toomey can't win statewide he's more conservative than Santorum."

We sure have come along way on this forum with regards to Toomeys electability in the last fourteen years. I find it positively delightful.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The thing is though, Toomey would not have run for a third term in virtually any scenario. He is a proponent of term limits and kept his pledge in the House (3 IIRC) and in the Senate (2 Terms).

MVAV and I discussed this race at length in late 2020, before January 6th when we still presumed that 2022 would be a normal midterm without the whole election denial/January 6 business and certainly before Toomey's impeachment vote.

The expectation, and one somewhat shared by insiders as well, was that of a possible bid for Governor by Toomey. So an equally valid question would be, "would Toomey have been able to beat Shapiro"?

[Not Me, Us]

Very much so. Fetterman's campaign treasurer spoke to one of my classes this afternoon because she knew my professor, and she outright said Toomey would have won.