2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Former Fox News host Eric Bolling is considering challenging either Nancy Mace (SC-01) or Tom Rice (SC-07).

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/12/eric-bolling-south-carolina-campaign-475541

Would love for Mace to be primaried. She's way too conservative for that district.

[wbrocks67]

My ideal dream scenario for Sinema’s end is dems pick up a seat or two in the senate in 2022, Sinema gets upset she’s no longer the power holder and becomes a Republican caucusing independent but republicans rebuff her and she’s basically left alone. Tries to run and get the republican nomination in 2024 and looses. Comes third to a decent democrat who wins and some nutty republican who still is chanting “lock her up!”

Sinema isn't anything close to a Republican though. I get that she has frustrated Dems, but she's still nowhere close to an R, even a Collins/Murkowski R.

[wbrocks67]

Andy Kim definitely seems like a future NJ-SEN candidate. He seems really well liked, and he is a prolific fundraiser even in an off quarter.

Meanwhile, I'm pretty tuned into politics and I've never even heard for that WI-SEN guy. So the fact he raised nearly $2M is pretty stunning.

[wbrocks67]

I didn't realize CO was doing new lines this year. So what will Boebert's district likely look like in 2022?

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1377604181733875727

[wbrocks67]

The 'law-and-order outlaw', who almost won the Republican primary in 2020, is running again for (if redistricting allows) Matt Cartwright's seat.

This doesn't compare to the 'Clancy Brown's Dan Crenshaw' ad, but it's something.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1420756846701211654

Oh, so after the GOP had the Prez, House, and Senate from 2016-2018, we're still doing the whole 'our voices aren't being heard' nonsense? lmao

[wbrocks67]

The 'law-and-order outlaw', who almost won the Republican primary in 2020, is running again for (if redistricting allows) Matt Cartwright's seat.

This doesn't compare to the 'Clancy Brown's Dan Crenshaw' ad, but it's something.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1420756846701211654

Nothing says "man of the people" like a slickly produced announcement video that probably cost at least half a million dollars even before the consulting firm's profit.

This is an ongoing trend, especially with grifters. They release these sleek videos that go "viral" that are kind... antithetical to what they are "talking" about

[wbrocks67]

Truly incredible that most of the Republican party supported overturning the election and has done nothing about the 1/6 insurrection and voters are still willing to vote them back into leadership. Truly amazing.

[wbrocks67]

The problem isn't Biden, it's the Dems in Congress who consider themselves "the future" who have an ideology far to the left of the median voter. It turns away a portion of very gettable people for the Dems who aren't interested in AOC's version of America.

The thing with this argument is that Republicans do the same thing, and even worse, with members like Greene and Gaetz, but for some reason, pundits and others don't see them as arbitroses like AOC?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1428404091936518145?s=19

LOL, Biden down -11 in a state he lost by 2. Sure Jan.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1428404091936518145?s=19

LOL, Biden down -11 in a state he lost by 2. Sure Jan.

And simultaneously mask mandates up by 19?

Junk it!

Approval of mask mandates in schools is like nearly 70% nationally, so it would not surprise me if +19 was undercounting that as well.

[wbrocks67]

*SNIP*

LOL, Biden down -11 in a state he lost by 2. Sure Jan.

And simultaneously mask mandates up by 19?

Junk it!

It’s only August 2021 and we’ve already entered that stage? Pretty remarkable.

We all know that mask mandates are much more partisan than this. There is not going to be a 30-point gap.

They're not though. Axios/Ipsos just had school mask mandates at 69% national approval this week.

[wbrocks67]

Harry's argument is kind of flimsy IMO. It seems there is a lot of rewriting history, like the NM-01 race didn't happen in particular.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, D+1-R+3 is all within the MoE, so given the coverage, I don't see current movement from R+1 in July to R+3 now as that damaging. Certainly not something that can't be clawed back from when we're currently in one of the worst news cycles of Biden's presidency.

In June things were looking very good for Biden on most fronts, so the fact that it was only D+1 at that point tells you something.

https://twitter.com/brentbuc/status/1432382904894697472

[wbrocks67]

The 2022 election is the most important one in US history, and we're blowing it. Biden should be ashamed of himself.

It's literally not for another year. Given how the insurrection is literally forgotten about and that was only 7 months ago, who knows what Nov 2022 will look like at this point.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1431293258223718403

And then there’s polls like this.

Huh, interesting. Though we've been so scarred by these 20% undecided/other polls that I can't even put that much stock into it

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1432816882432630788?s=20

What are the chances that OK-05 gets any bluer though?

[wbrocks67]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Did they just happen to find 7 R leads or did they not release any that had a D lead? Just find it funny how they happened to poll 7 and found R leads in all 7.

[wbrocks67]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

Even with Biden in a rough spot nationally recently, these are ridiculous. PA-17 is literally nearly a 25% swing. Come on.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if this was posted, but 538's GCB tracker is live:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Currently has Dems 44-41

[wbrocks67]

Very hard to square a D+4 GCB / Biden -3 approval with a Biden -31 approval rating in IA (from a far more reliable pollster), even if we assume that there’s a large cohort of D-leaning voters who disapprove of Biden but won’t vote R like in 2014. This is going to be another "pick out and believe in the numbers/polls you want" election.

You're absolutely correct, but I also think - as we've spoken a bit about - that Biden's approval should be taken a bit differently than Trumps. Trump had a die hard base who would approve no matter what, and then he had everyone else who disapproved. So that battle lines were drawn and more clear.

Bidens approval is a bit more murky IMO - because I think you have more Ds or D-leaning folks who may 'disapprove' for whatever reason but are still never going to vote R. I think D/D-leaning are more open to admitting they disapprove (but still vote D) versus most Republicans are going to support Trump absolutely no matter what.

So essentially, even if Biden has a -30 in Iowa, he could still have many of those folks who still would lean D instead of R if forced to choose in an election.

But I also do think that the IA poll is just really severe. -30 is a clear outlier even for IA

[wbrocks67]

D+8 in the polls is probably D+2-3 in actuality. It would take little short of a miracle for Democrats to hold either chamber of Congress, especially the House.

You really do the most.

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac has been a hot ass mess for a while now. They're definitely overcorrecting from their mistakes in 2020. They have Republicans up nearly 15% with Indies in the GCB, and only +9 among 18-34 year olds, despite having Dems up +4 just a few weeks overall (now -3)

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, R+3 makes sense based on the 538 RV/LV approval rating right now

However, an outlier right now given that every single other recent GCB has had a Dem lead, but not surprised that so many people (think Twitter pundits) are going nuts over the *one* that shows a R lead, which is also bound to happen sooner or later.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist has Dems up +7, 43-36

Wonder if this will get as much attention as Q-pac!

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/j46zs8picp/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Damn!

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1446490488819830786