2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not just about abortion it's Rs position on taxes they blocked BBB due to they didn't want Corporate taxes to rise from 20 to 27 percent


Warren says the Wealth tax whenever's D's get the Secular majority hopefully in 22 because 20 Rs are up and 14 D's S are up, D's must take adantage will erase the 50K in Student loan debt of 55M people it generates 3T over the course of a decade but Rs are against it of course

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1526155757078474753?t=YLM9h_oMn0yIORJuI2GVrQ&...

Congrats to Mike Garcia on his re election in 2022!

[ElectionsGuy]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

Yeah, I think the best realistic Dem scenario is all of the GOP Senate candidates flame out due to abortion stances and they pick up 2 seats while losing House but keeping GOP to a 12 seat or so gain. It is not going to be a R+7 vote like VA and NJ suggested, both had considerably better candidates than anything GOP will offer in swing states in 2022. I think the lack of rape exceptions on abortion is going to trip up some Rs, this position is supported by a fringe 5-10% of the country and as toxic as defunding the police.

Lol D+2 in the senate and R+12 in the house is very optimistic for Ds. That’s basically an R+1-2 vote.

The only way you get D+2 in the Senate is if Dems win the popular vote by at least as much as they did in 2020.

[Devils30]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

Yeah, I think the best realistic Dem scenario is all of the GOP Senate candidates flame out due to abortion stances and they pick up 2 seats while losing House but keeping GOP to a 12 seat or so gain. It is not going to be a R+7 vote like VA and NJ suggested, both had considerably better candidates than anything GOP will offer in swing states in 2022. I think the lack of rape exceptions on abortion is going to trip up some Rs, this position is supported by a fringe 5-10% of the country and as toxic as defunding the police.

Lol D+2 in the senate and R+12 in the house is very optimistic for Ds. That’s basically an R+1-2 vote.

The only way you get D+2 in the Senate is if Dems win the popular vote by at least as much as they did in 2020.

Note the BEST realistic scenario part of what I said, not the median outcome. The median outcome is prob 20-28 R gains in house and 2 in Senate.

[UncleSam]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

Yeah, I think the best realistic Dem scenario is all of the GOP Senate candidates flame out due to abortion stances and they pick up 2 seats while losing House but keeping GOP to a 12 seat or so gain. It is not going to be a R+7 vote like VA and NJ suggested, both had considerably better candidates than anything GOP will offer in swing states in 2022. I think the lack of rape exceptions on abortion is going to trip up some Rs, this position is supported by a fringe 5-10% of the country and as toxic as defunding the police.

Lol D+2 in the senate and R+12 in the house is very optimistic for Ds. That’s basically an R+1-2 vote.

The only way you get D+2 in the Senate is if Dems win the popular vote by at least as much as they did in 2020.

Note the BEST realistic scenario part of what I said, not the median outcome. The median outcome is prob 20-28 R gains in house and 2 in Senate.

Gotcha, misread ‘best’ as ‘most realistic’. That makes a lot more sense lol and I’d say I agree.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think we're all underestimate Biden hasn't Biden exceeded expectations before 2008/12/2020 yes he have over and over again, this is tye same Biden that helped Obama win IN in 2008 and IN Sen in 2012

2016 Hillary won the PVI that doesn't count, really the R party hasn't won since the Gingrich Revolution and Bush W

The Rs have won 2 Elections in 12 yrs in 2010/14 when we had 10% unemployment, don't underestimate Biden, Beasley Ryan especially CRIST they can win even in a Pandemic Environment, if we win those irregardless in what happens in the H we will have enough S seats to win back the H in 24

54 percent said Romney favors the rich and 40% said he fav the poor in 2012, dur to Rs tax cuts we need a Wealth tax to eradicate Student loans 50K

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA?t=wsJ_eQIQ2Sze3lj0Gmx9_w&s=09

GCB 44D/42 It's not gonna be a catastrophe
Bullfinch Group, all the naysayers out there

[Gracile]

https://punchbowl.news/archive/5-18-22-punchbowl-news-am/

A DCCC internal has the GOP winning the generic ballot 47-39.

This article also mentions that CLF polled 16 districts that Biden won "by an average of eight points" and found a tied generic ballot in those districts:

Districts polled include seats held by Reps. Abigail Spanberger (Va.), Kim Schrier (Wash.), Mike Levin (Calif.), Kurt Schrader (Ore.), Angie Craig (Minn.), Susie Lee (Nev.) and Jahana Hayes (Conn.).

[wbrocks67]

If Dems can outperform Biden's approval by 8% then they're not in terrible shape, given his ~42-43% average approval right now nationally.

[Unelectable Bystander]

If Dems can outperform Biden's approval by 8% then they're not in terrible shape, given his ~42-43% average approval right now nationally.

This doesn’t really make any sense. For that to be the case, the generic ballot in those districts would need to be 50-50. It’s more likely 45-45 or something like that, meaning that they are barely outperforming Biden with a ton of the undecideds being Biden disapprovers.

Also, they’d be at more than 39% in the poll top line if this over-performance was actually occurring

[MT Treasurer]

The big takeaways here are that - assuming this wasn’t just used for fundraising - the DCCC's own internal polls paint a bleaker picture for Democrats than public polling (but a picture that is more in line with primary turnout and the results of last November than anything we’ve seen in YouGov/NBC/etc. polls) and that there hasn’t been a notable pro-D shift since the Roe leak. 47-39 is a devastating result for Democrats and one in which the vast majority of competitive Senate/House/gubernatorial/state legislative races will 'fall' one way.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526927597514502144

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's so funny they keep giving us these GCB nets but no state by state and we just got another poll showing Beasley tied with Budd that's not an 8 pt GCB R lead if we are tied in a wave insurance seat like NC and a Phillips Academy poll has Crist and Demings tied in FL an 8 pt lead is Rs winning PA like Corbett did in 2010 and there is no PA poll

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526927597514502144

Its Biden +8 compared to Biden +10.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526927597514502144

It's definitely an extremely bad look for the DCCC. The Syracuse district is also something around Biden +5, but has more of a history of ticket splitting, so this Biden+5 district is arguably the 10th most Republican district in NY.

[Adam Griffin]

Marist:
GCB D 47, R 42
Biden 39/56

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/19/1099844097/abortion-polling-roe-v-wade-supreme-court-draft-opinion

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-national-poll-abortion-rights-may-2022/

Democrats also got a boost on which party Americans want to control Congress. By a 47%-to-42% margin, this survey showed voters would cast their ballot in favor of a Democrat in their local congressional district if the election were held today.

For Democrats, that is a net increase on the so-called congressional ballot test of 8 points from last month's survey, when 47% said they would vote for a Republican, as compared to 44% who said they would vote for a Democrat. Those numbers were within the margin of error, but it was the first time in eight years that Republicans had done that well on the question in the Marist poll.

Also from the article/relevant to previous convo:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been circulating its latest internal battleground districts poll among the party's House members. Conducted before the Supreme Court leak, it showed a generic Republican beating a generic Democrat by a 47%-to-39% margin in battleground districts. The survey was first reported by Punchbowl News and confirmed by NPR.

A Democratic official says their polling also shows Democratic House incumbents are averaging about 5 points better than a generic candidate, however.

[Politician]

Marist:
GCB D 47, R 42
Biden 39/56

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/19/1099844097/abortion-polling-roe-v-wade-supreme-court-draft-opinion
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-national-poll-abortion-rights-may-2022/

Democrats also got a boost on which party Americans want to control Congress. By a 47%-to-42% margin, this survey showed voters would cast their ballot in favor of a Democrat in their local congressional district if the election were held today.

For Democrats, that is a net increase on the so-called congressional ballot test of 8 points from last month's survey, when 47% said they would vote for a Republican, as compared to 44% who said they would vote for a Democrat. Those numbers were within the margin of error, but it was the first time in eight years that Republicans had done that well on the question in the Marist poll.

Also from the article/relevant to previous convo:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been circulating its latest internal battleground districts poll among the party's House members. Conducted before the Supreme Court leak, it showed a generic Republican beating a generic Democrat by a 47%-to-39% margin in battleground districts. The survey was first reported by Punchbowl News and confirmed by NPR.

A Democratic official says their polling also shows Democratic House incumbents are averaging about 5 points better than a generic candidate, however.

Marist is literal trash lmao

[wbrocks67]

"a pollster who shows something i dont like = trash" is more like it

it's not hard to figure out how Dems could be outperforming Biden considerably right now.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Don't gaslight. You know Marist has been egregiously wrong several times. Remember Cunningham +9?

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526927597514502144

It's definitely an extremely bad look for the DCCC. The Syracuse district is also something around Biden +5, but has more of a history of ticket splitting, so this Biden+5 district is arguably the 10th most Republican district in NY.

Its biden +8.

[Adam Griffin]

A White Gay & Black Gay running against each other in a Democratic primary? LITERALLY A HATE CRIME.

[Unelectable Bystander]

It’s amazing that the two prominent D hacks on this board are only able to find generic ballots with D leads. It’s radio silence on the R +8 D internal or the R +5 Qpac polls

[2016]

It’s amazing that the two prominent D hacks on this board are only able to find generic ballots with D leads. It’s radio silence on the R +8 D internal or the R +5 Qpac polls

I've given up posting in this Thread because of these hacks. Let's let them talk amongst themselves

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1527422590888951827

Enough said.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1527645983869489157