2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[2016]

Republicans do not need to win the House Vote in 2022 to retake the House.

Even if Democrats win let's say 49-47 in 2022 Republicans would take the House.

[2016]

So it begins!

[2016]

I think it'll be either 54 or 55 Republicans in the Senate come 2023. That hinges on Colorado. That would mean the tipping-point state is the one Democrats lose by the largest margin, which I think is Arizona.

I think it will be like this:


I don't see Democrats losing Nevada or Colorado. Even in the 2010 Wave they managed to hold those States.

[2016]

The "BUILT BACK BETTER" Plan will define Democrats in 2022. Yes, they might get Progressives energized and riled up BUT they likely will lose a ton of Suburban Voters, particularly moms in the processs.

Democrats have been put into a corner thanks to Jayapal, AOC and the House Progressive Caucus.

[2016]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

This is why people need to stop the whole "GOP will win 60 seats!!!!" thing. There aren't going to be anywhere close to that up for grabs, even in a red wave.

Maybe not 60 but certainly 30 in a Red Wave!

[2016]

Bidens Job Approval is under water in Safe Democratic Districts like Frank Mrvan (IN-1). Democrats will still hold that District BUT him underwater there doesn't bode very well for 2022.

[2016]

Bidens Job Approval is under water in Safe Democratic Districts like Frank Mrvan (IN-1). Democrats will still hold that District BUT him underwater there doesn't bode very well for 2022.

I told you it was a sleeper race, I wouldn't be surprised to see that seat flip actually.

Maybe you are right? We shall see!

[2016]

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.

Hilarious indeed! No way Dems leading on the Generic Ballot!

[2016]

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly

Olowakandi,
You are just talking massive NONSENSE over and over again.

# 1 Biden will not reach 50 % JA in his 1st Term again!

# 2 Biden is in a much more worse place compared to his former boss Obama.

# 3 According to the 2009 Virginia Exit Polls Obama had a 48/51 Job Approval Rating in the State compared to Bidens 46/53 YET Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by Double Digits

2009 VA Exits
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/04/2009.exit.polls.-.va.gov.pdf
PARTY ID: D 33 / I 30 / R 37

2021 VA Exits
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0
PARTY ID: D 36 / I 30 / R 34

Obama also was inspiring. Biden is an old 80 year-old uninspiring sleepy figure.

VA tells us that 2022 will be a R-WAVE. It's unlikely R's get 63 House Seats like in 2010 but they don't need to. They will get between 20-30 though!

[2016]

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly

Olowakandi,
You are just talking massive NONSENSE over and over again.

# 1 Biden will not reach 50 % JA in his 1st Term again!

# 2 Biden is in a much more worse place compared to his former boss Obama.

# 3 According to the 2009 Virginia Exit Polls Obama had a 48/51 Job Approval Rating in the State compared to Bidens 46/53 YET Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by Double Digits

2009 VA Exits
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/04/2009.exit.polls.-.va.gov.pdf
PARTY ID: D 33 / I 30 / R 37

2021 VA Exits
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0
PARTY ID: D 36 / I 30 / R 34

Obama also was inspiring. Biden is an old 80 year-old uninspiring sleepy figure.

VA tells us that 2022 will be a R-WAVE. It's unlikely R's get 63 House Seats like in 2010 but they don't need to. They will get between 20-30 though!

Marquette poll has Biden up 8 we won the NPVI In2020 80M votes whom is the Majority party DS, lol the RS haven't won the NPVi since 2014 you're the on e thinking the RS are the Majority and Trump didn't win the PVI either in both Election, I told this to you slready

2016 DS NPVI 65/62
2020 80M to 74M

DS are the Majority not Ra


Biden and Obama won 50 percent of the vote Trump 48 and Bush W 48 in 2004 of course he had Rove 51 percent

Who cares what the Marquette Poll says!
Every single Poll that came out since the Afghanistan withrawal has Biden down among Independents.

Youngkin beat McAuliffe 54-45 among Indies.

Biden doesn't have a winning coalition. 51 % who voted for Biden in said that their vote was against Trump. That isn't a winning coaltion when you pull from Voters who said they hate the other guy.

[2016]

It's gonna be hard for RS to maintain this lead all the way til Nov, they can but it will be difficult

As long as Biden is underwater Republicans will maintain a lead in the GCB although the Generic Ballot isn't indicative. It's more important what happens with Bidens JA.

Another bad withdrawal from the Ukraine like with Afghanistan and Bidens Approval may sit in the low 30ties.

[2016]

I have 2016 and S019 this Red wave won't last until Nov 22

For the Upteeth Time Republicans DO NOT NEED a Red Wave like 2010. It would be nice to have it but they don't need it.

2018 Exit Poll

Trump JA 45 % / Republican House Vote 45 %

2014 Exit Poll

Obama JA 44 % / Democrat House Vote 44 %

2010 Exit Poll

Obama JA 45 % / Democrat House Vote 45 %

You see the Trend. Democrats Chances in the House are TIED to Bidens JA!

[2016]

RS can get excited all they want about pos there is still 338 days til the Election and they just folded on the Debt Ceiling which paves the way to BBB, BBB is gonna pass after RS preached to us they won't lift Debt Ceiling on a 5T dollar bill

Depth Ceiling hasn't passed the Senate! It only passed the House!

[2016]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/o8u558c9sy/econTabReport.pdf

YouGov/Econ Weekly Tracking GCB:

Dems 42 (+/- 0)
Reps 39 (+2)


The Iowa/Wisconsin rule applies unless you're really scratching your head about whom those 10% undecided non-college whites could possibly be voting for.

Excatly what I've said, Democrats at 42 % and Bidens JA stands at 42 % as well. Democrats being at 42 % is VERY, VERY BAD because the rest of the Vote almost always goes to the challenging Party.

Same applies to the Politico/Morning Consult where Biden is at 45 % and Democrats are at 44 %.

Even if Biden JA rebounds to about 47-48 % by E-DAY 2022 GOP will still take the House because they only need 5 Seats.

[2016]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/o8u558c9sy/econTabReport.pdf

YouGov/Econ Weekly Tracking GCB:

Dems 42 (+/- 0)
Reps 39 (+2)


The Iowa/Wisconsin rule applies unless you're really scratching your head about whom those 10% undecided non-college whites could possibly be voting for.

Very Bad, D +9% sample

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1468631804588412928?t=6fGWHsAE2gJ3f1PA... ..

That's hilarious! We will not a 2018 D+9 Midterm Electorate!

[2016]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1468289128529899527?s=20

As much as the generic ballot has gotten better for Republicans in the last few months, these numbers are still underestimating R's. Like it's pretty telling that 57% disapprove in this poll yet only 44% are going Republican. There is a point in the electorate where no matter how low Biden's approval goes a certain percentage will just vote Democratic anyway, however, that kind of separation (44-57, vs the 41-41) is telling me that those are people who don't necessarily like R's but they will vote for them and they're hesitant to say so. We didn't see this kind of thing in 2017, it was blue wave territory immediately.

What you are saying here makes me think that there is indeed a sizable "Shy Trump/Republican Vote" out there. Most of these Undecideds are Non-College WWC I think.

[2016]

So, Marist has finally come to their senses and have Republicans now up 5 on the Generic Ballot.

[2016]

Cook's David Wasserman: Republicans CLEAR Favourites to take House Control
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1476584838861889543
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

[2016]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

[2016]

New Monmouth Poll has Biden at 38/55 JA and Republicans leading the Generic Ballot 51/43.

That looks more accurate tbh compared to those "Trashy" Polls from YouGov and Morning Consult.

[2016]

Morgan Ortagus in for TN-5
https://twitter.com/MorganOrtagus/status/1490681033649438726

[2016]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1493993298356326406?t=UoEXnuPYBeJCvonGz...

Likely R.

Consistent with most National Polls which have Republicans up. The Economist/YouGov have to be absolutely discounted. How can they have a D +11 Sample. Ridiculous!

[2016]

D's lead on GCB 42/37 on the You Gov poll it's February not October still too premature to celebrate for Rs and COVID is going down good for Biden this is the same Biden that beat Trump in 2028 and won 375 EC votes in 2008/12

42 % ain't all that great because the further we go in the 2022 Campaign the more likely the Undecided Voters break for the Challenger. YouGov Poll also underpolled White Non-College Vote.

[2016]

Complete Disaster for Democrats incoming...
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1493999422895624199

Harris down in her own Home State (38/46), President Biden barely breaking even. This is CA folks!

[2016]

Just for Olowakandi aka Bakari Sellers who was gloating about the YouGov Poll...
https://twitter.com/GrabingYou/status/1493976475581648896