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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 166644 times)
Devils30
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Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« on: April 25, 2021, 10:14:25 AM »

No change from 2020. Don't expect much anytime soon either as Biden approvals pretty much reflect last year's numbers, the only group where he's improved by a bit relative to 2020 is Hispanics which bodes well for Dems in NV, AZ.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2021, 11:57:22 AM »

If anything the Dems will add another Buffalo, Rochester seat. NY-4 will move into Queens and probably get safer and some blue parts of 4 will go into NY-1 or 2. One of 1/2 will be a GOP vote sink on LI's south shore.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2021, 12:02:46 PM »



Change is a junk pollster but the generic ballot hasn't altered much since fall 2020. The ballot had a lot of D+4-8 going into election day, not the double digits like 2018.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html#polls

Dems should be realistic, the goal is making gains in NY, CA, IL (CA GOP pickups included three Biden +10) and maybe ones like MD-1 while hoping commissions give them better maps in MI, CO and courts in WI, PA. 225-230 seats is probably the absolute best case along with 53-47 in Senate.

Dems not wasting millions in Florida could be an unintended shot in the arm as well.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2021, 03:07:52 PM »

The oversampling Rs is fine, giving Dems a scare. The tie is also in battlegrounds even with this oversample. Hate these multiple state/combined district polls, such a weird sample.

A battleground phone poll of 1,000 registered voters, with an oversample of 500 Republicans was
conducted by phone April 27-May 3, 2021 from a voter-file sample. 67% of respondents were reached
on cell phones in order to accurately reflect the American electorate. The margin of error is +/- 3.5
percentage points.

4 South/Sunbelt States = AZ (+5), FL (+2), GA (+5), NV (+1)
7 Blue Wall States = MI (+1), ME (+3), MN (+1), NH (-), OH (+3), PA (-), WI (-)
13 Additional Frontline Congressional Districts:
• CA-39(+3), CA-45 (+3), CA-48 (+1), CA-49 (+4)
• NJ-03 (+3), NJ-05 (+1), NJ-07(+1), NJ-11 (-)
• TX-22 (+4), TX-24 (+2), TX-32 (+1)
• VA-02 (+1), VA-07 (+3)
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2021, 02:32:50 PM »

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!


A lot of the GOP's optimism comes from historical trends, not actual polling for 2022.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2021, 06:31:03 PM »

Biden's numbers weren't anything spectacular in the Q poll. Perhaps a lot of people aren't fans of what happened on 1/6 and there isn't a huge Biden 2020/R congress 2022 vote ahead.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2021, 02:18:58 PM »

Any good D year is probably more like D+6 with gains of 3-7 seats in House and PA WI NC in senate for 53-47.

9% just won't happen.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2021, 12:33:41 AM »

Biden's numbers weren't anything spectacular in the Q poll. Perhaps a lot of people aren't fans of what happened on 1/6 and there isn't a huge Biden 2020/R congress 2022 vote ahead.

Increasing polarization is going to help Democrats if Biden stays moderately popular. On election day 2018 Trump was at -9 in approval. Democrats won the NPV by 8.6%.

This could all be a honeymoon period, but increasing polarization could mean they are over.

Yep. My point is that using models from years like 1954 probably make little sense where the electorate wasn't polarized and Dems could win the House even with a popular Eisenhower.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2021, 02:54:31 PM »

Anyone else look at the crosstabs for the Qpac poll? They have indies as a statistical tie. That alone points more in the direction of D+4 (most public data like Pew Research has the national party edge as roughly D+3-5) than D+10. Surely we've all learned the dangers of labeling polls as skewed but I have a very hard time believing Ds have a double-digit lead when the poll only has them at 40% with indies.

Rs have had a decrease in people identifying as Rs since Trump's post-election sh**tshow. Plenty probably still vote R for congress so this might be why they look better with indies. I would use 2020 as the baseline and assume D+9 isn't happening but D+6 would be a great target that is unlikely but not impossible.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2021, 12:56:22 PM »

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/05/14135751/2105024-JLF-NC-Toplines-v2.pdf

Generic Ballot, North Carolina
Cygnal
May 6-8
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with "March 2021"

Generic state legislature: R+3 (without rounding)
Republican 48% (+2)
Democratic 44% (-1)
Unsure 8% (n/c)

GCB: R+1
Republican 47% (n/c)
Democratic 46% (n/c)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

Approval ratings for Biden and Cooper also in there along with favourabilities for a bunch of Senate hopefuls.

Cyngal is a GOP internal...and R+1 is only the same margin as Trump 2020 in North Carolina. Even here the GCB is tied to Biden's approval rating...which seems low compared to his national numbers.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2021, 12:49:55 PM »

Crist isn't beating DeSantis especially not without HR 1, since DeSantis already up by 5/10 and he will Redistrict the map the way he wants and voter Suppression Laws passed

 HR1 or not...Dems won't win that race
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2021, 01:04:23 PM »

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/forecasting-the-2022-midterm-election-with-the-generic-ballot/

This model is flawed, same guy who said the Dems had to win the generic ballot by 11 to win House in 2018.

1) There is no chance if Dems are -5 on the GCB they are holding the Senate
2) If Dems are -10, they will not hold 3/4 of GA AZ NV NH.
3) Dems will not lose the House at +6 or so, most likely then they will get gains out of NY, IL, MD, NM, CA to offset their losses.

I'm skeptical at a huge divergence between the House and Senate when the median House district is R+2 relative to the popular vote and median Senate state would be around R+4 (GA, AZ). Even if the median House district moves to R+3 or so it's hard to see a Rs winning 25 House seats, Dems keeping Senate.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2021, 02:11:36 PM »

States don't go the same way in Midterms as in Prez Election I have been saying this all along we can have Sen Abby and Sununu and Jackson and Ryan in the Senate together.  Also, Whitmer and D's loosing PA Gov mansion and then Hobbs and Laura Kelly can win their  Gov races, stay tuned 500 days til the Election

D's want DC Statehood, we have to expand the map to keep the H

I think some underrate the number of possible Dem offensive opportunities for 2022. NY-1, 11, 22 and one of 23/24 should be Democratic districts in 2022 along with IL-13, MD-1, NM-2.

You think that's it but would anyone be shocked if Dems stacked the CA commission into making CA-25, 39 Biden +15 and CA-48 Biden +8?
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2021, 10:11:42 PM »

https://www.wwnytv.com/2021/06/14/1st-democrat-emerges-challenge-stefanik-congress/

The campaign looks as though it will have serious organization and money behind it. Would not expect someone with this background to do any better than Cobb though. This looks like the kind of campaign that could do well at at attracting attention from the party's national base.

e: LinkedIn check shows that Putorti lived in NYC from the time he went to college until the pandemic, confirming my suspicions. Democrats don't know how to recruit local candidates in rural districts.

Won't matter, Dems are going to pack Stefanik and Tenney in redistricting into an ultra red seat.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2021, 07:17:47 PM »

I think there are just too many running parts to really know how this redistricting cycle plays out. If the Dems can game the refs in CO, MI, VA, CA with the commissions it changes a lot of things. Like CA producing a 42-10 map vs 47-5 or CO being 6-2 Dem (something I would not rule out). Other stuff like how does WI-3, PA-8, look also is a factor.

There are just so many different pieces to the puzzle we don't know about yet.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2021, 03:33:55 PM »

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Brindisi-decides-not-to-run-for-Congress-in-2022-574700631.html

Brindisi has withdrawn from the NY-22 (pending redistricting) race after declaring his intention to retake his seat in January.

Everything upstate will look a lot different with new maps, if he was in a primary in a new Biden +12 seat he might have lost to someone more liberal. I do think the Ds will gerrymander NY at the direction of the national party that needs it to offset GOP ones elsewhere.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2021, 11:55:22 PM »

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Brindisi-decides-not-to-run-for-Congress-in-2022-574700631.html

Brindisi has withdrawn from the NY-22 (pending redistricting) race after declaring his intention to retake his seat in January.

Everything upstate will look a lot different with new maps, if he was in a primary in a new Biden +12 seat he might have lost to someone more liberal. I do think the Ds will gerrymander NY at the direction of the national party that needs it to offset GOP ones elsewhere.

At the very least it sounds like Oneida will stay in a solidly Republican district.

Dems will put Utica in a blue leaning district and probably have the rest of the county in an ultra red NY-21.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #17 on: June 27, 2021, 04:04:32 PM »

Depends, the Ds might draw a district from Albany area to Plattsburgh along the NY/VT border that could take in blue counties and maybe the new NY-22 or 24 has tentacles away from Syracuse into Utica and the southern half of the county (mainly to even population).
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2021, 01:40:00 PM »

Utica and the area around it have swung far enough toward the GOP that there would be no electoral advantage to packing it into a Democratic seat, even if NY had partisan gerrymandering.

I'm not caught up on the drama around the state's independent redistricting commission, but I doubt that Brindisi has any special insight as to what the resulting map will look like.

Dems have a supermajority..the commission don’t mean s***
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2021, 10:15:31 PM »


Pointless to speculate until we know the new district.
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Devils30
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Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2021, 05:46:41 PM »

The problem isn't Biden, it's the Dems in Congress who consider themselves "the future" who have an ideology far to the left of the median voter. It turns away a portion of very gettable people for the Dems who aren't interested in AOC's version of America.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2021, 08:39:33 PM »

The problem isn't Biden, it's the Dems in Congress who consider themselves "the future" who have an ideology far to the left of the median voter. It turns away a portion of very gettable people for the Dems who aren't interested in AOC's version of America.

The thing with this argument is that Republicans do the same thing, and even worse, with members like Greene and Gaetz, but for some reason, pundits and others don't see them as arbitroses like AOC?

A lot of reporters are from NYC and give AOC credibility that MTG would never get from the mainstream media. Dems have to be aware of the way this wing of the party has access to top institutions that the militant right doesn't.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #22 on: August 04, 2021, 02:53:59 PM »

QPAC has dems 45 Reps 44 in newest poll for 2022

Good poll for Rs but generic ballot is really converging on approval. If Biden can be at 52% or higher next year, Ds can hold House.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2021, 09:54:54 AM »

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1277368?__twitter_impression=true

Not a great poll for Dems but hardly a 2010 style wave in the making, lets see what happens after infrastructure is signed.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #24 on: August 23, 2021, 10:29:33 PM »



Anonymous source so take with a huge grain of salt.

Probably Gottheimer?

I guess you could make a Northwest NJ vote sink for NJ-5 but the Dems (with likely majority on the commission) will probably make it safer if anything. Of course he could then lose to a left wing challenger if it gets a lot bluer.
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