2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/bresreports/status/1379029880252289028?s=20

Lol this district probably isn't even going to exist in the next election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.

The past four years of elections have given us ample amount of evidence that really only happens when Trump is actually on the ballot. There is no shy Republican vote.

Besides, the poll sample is only D +0.7

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.

The past four years of elections have given us ample amount of evidence that really only happens when Trump is actually on the ballot. There is no shy Republican vote.

Besides, the poll sample is only D +0.7

Were you alive during the 2014 midterms ? That year Republicans overperformed the generic ballot by 3 points and polls generally overestimated democratic candidates in most competitive races (Crist up in FL, democrats winning in KS, Hagan ahead of Thom Tillis, the IA-Sen race).

And 2018 was hardly better for the polling industry with big failures in Ohio (Cordray was ahead by 4 points according to the polling average !), Indiana, Missouri but also Florida and Tennessee.

Lol and polls underestimated the Democrats in 2012. My point is that there is no shy Republican vote, and that stands.

And what about 2018? The Democrats did about as well nationwide as the polls suggested. In fact, they even over performed in the House election. Every election is going to have a few races that are off.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The NRCC is adding a ten more districts to their target list:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1389520186147999744

CA-07, CA-16, CA-36, IL-03, MI-05, NY-04, NY-20, NY-25, NY-26, PA-06

(Obviously, all of these seats are pretty big stretches in their current forms, but it's likely in anticipation of these seats being changed significantly in redistricting.)

Higgins won reelection by over forty points in NY-26 lol.

I can't imagine the seat will be drawn to be any more favorable to the GOP.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I mean, D+1-R+3 is all within the MoE, so given the coverage, I don't see current movement from R+1 in July to R+3 now as that damaging. Certainly not something that can't be clawed back from when we're currently in one of the worst news cycles of Biden's presidency.

In June things were looking very good for Biden on most fronts, so the fact that it was only D+1 at that point tells you something.

https://twitter.com/brentbuc/status/1432382904894697472

A 17K survey sample? Absolute garbage.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Junk it. This poll is filled with loaded questions.

Q: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Liberal-led spending has already raised record price increases for working families. Spending $3.5 trillion for a liberal wish list will only make the rising costs families face even worse.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GG 70-80 seats
https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1457412028872761349?s=20

I just find it amazing how the Democrats are always elected to clean up the messes left by Republicans, but then the voters decide to hand power back to the Republicans because they don't think the Democrats are cleaning up fast enough.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/RealignmentP/status/1457419368120430603?s=20

This sort of speculation is a little silly considering redistricting isn't finished yet.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1458458123488931850

A star Republican congressional candidate in Texas was accused last month by her estranged husband in court documents of “cruel and aggressive conduct” toward his 14-year-old daughter, including verbal abuse and pinching the child to stop her from crying.

What is it with Republicans and recruiting candidates with domestic abuse allegations this cycle?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Quinnipiac is finding R+8, we're in for a shellacking worse than 2010.

Democrats are basically a non party below the Presidency.

Both ridiculous takes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

Most of the things SL says is nonsensical.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/CatieEdmondson/status/1482029647068082176?s=20

23-3 Hochulmander incoming...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

R+6/7 is honestly not that bad considering the environment. Still, puts Dems in a position of losing like 40 house seats.

Not even, especially considering the lack of competitive districts thanks to all the gerrymandering.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Doesn't really matter that much, but Dems lead GOP by 21 points amongst voters ages 18-29 years old.

https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/spring-2022-harvard-youth-poll

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol, the CNN has a 6pt shift to the GOP after the Roe decision was leaked. They had R+1 from April 28- May 1 and R +7 from May 3-5.

Senate Lean R —> Lean D

The average American voter has a room temperature IQ, so this shouldn't surprise anyone.

The Economy is good but the reason why voters are still mad because the Gas prices we gotta wait till see in the Fall to see if the Gas prices but there aren't anymore 33% as I see it 45 is close to 50%

LOL, the Economy is bad, even the Stock Market tanked!

I know this is impossible for you, but quit cherry picking data.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I’d really like a poll asking voters how much they care about abortion rights, and if they care enough for it to affect their vote in November. I understand that abortion rights are important to the activist wing of the Democratic Party but how much do older voters (who are overwhelmingly more likely to vote) actually care about whether abortion is legal in their state or not?

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1522670972909805569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

That’s not necessarily what I meant. It is possible to give an opinion on a certain topic when given a menu of options on a poll without actually personally caring much about it. For example, I couldn’t care less whether or not pangolins go extinct but if asked on a poll, I would say I support efforts to maintain their habitat & environments. That does not mean I would necessarily be motivated to vote for a candidate who believes the same as me or even list it as a top ten in terms of my political priorities.

Abortion is already functionally illegal in places like Texas but just how many women think about abortions as a serious issue that affects their daily lives? How many women even ever get abortions? The point I am trying to make is that I do not think this will be as big of an issue as Democrats think it will be in rallying midterm voters. If the GOP somehow came after contraception/birth control, though? Or if they targeted pornography? *That* certainly would.

One in four women are expected to get an abortion before the age of 45. That's a lot.

https://www.guttmacher.org/news-release/2017/abortion-common-experience-us-women-despite-dramatic-declines-rates

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Honestly, it’ll still be a red year, but the Dems could seriously blunt the impact if they keep abortion in the news… red states are already doing that for them.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

IIRC Echelon's GCB polling did very well in 2020.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

It's not uncommon for a party to peak too soon in a cycle.  If the 2016 election had been held a few months earlier, Hillary would have won easily and the D's would likely have held at least one house of Congress.  Similarly, the D's probably peaked too soon in '18 and '20.  Right now it looks like the same thing may be happening to the R's this year -- but there's still plenty of time for that to change.

Did they? The Democrats held a consistently large polling lead over the Republicans leading up to the 2018 midterms. I don't remember any peaking happening.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/1556245847721082883?s=21&t=MalYBwgA5E0i...

It's pretty safe to say that the "Americans don't care about Dobbs" narrative has been pounded into the ground. It might not be the top issue for Americans in the midterms, but no one can deny its salience.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fox News GCB

41-41.

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/Fox_August-6-9-2022_National_Topline_August-11-Release.pdf

Their last poll had Republicans up 3.

Democrats in congress have a -19 approval rating (last poll was -20) and the Republicans are at -32 (last poll had them at -24).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don't quite get the Colorado change...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The CO change is pure Cook brain. This is Supposed To Be A Good Cycle For The Republicans so any change in the Democrats' favor, no matter how justified, must be balanced out by a change in the Republicans' favor, no matter how unjustified.

Apparently even O’Dea’s internal polling isn’t showing a particularly competitive race which makes this move extra bizarre.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Stop quoting SL. A lot of us have him on ignore for a reason.