2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[lfromnj]

He's making the comparison to Cawthorn because he's a disabled dude in a wheelchair.

[lfromnj]

Hes prob gonna lose the primary to some white Charlotte lib against HB2 as he voted for HB2 in 2016 lol.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ChristySmithCA/status/1369763706221993987
She's back?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1380205747640836096

Solid recruit for the GOP. Redistricting probably won't shift this seat much in either direction.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1388201390170730497

[lfromnj]

The point is to scare these Democrats so they make more incumbent friendly demands before redistricting. Fairly obvious.  A lot of those upstate seats were relatively close in 2014 and its not like upstate has trended D since 2012. I guess NY04 is to scare Rice but in reality you can just precinct trade between NY01/NY02 so it would be extremely foolish for D's to be scared in Long Island. Meanwhile on upstate I would say on average the number of Dem seats would go up with a more aggressive map but 3 sinks is probably what's needed to placate incumbents.

[lfromnj]

The point is to scare these Democrats so they make more incumbent friendly demands before redistricting. Fairly obvious.  A lot of those upstate seats were relatively close in 2014 and its not like upstate has trended D since 2012. I guess NY04 is to scare Rice but in reality you can just precinct trade between NY01/NY02 so it would be extremely foolish for D's to be scared in Long Island. Meanwhile on upstate I would say on average the number of Dem seats would go up with a more aggressive map but 3 sinks is probably what's needed to placate incumbents.

You can get four pretty solidly blue seats Upstate. Rochester, Buffalo, Albany, and Syracuse/Ithaca.

You shore up the incumbents first. Makes more sense to give Delgado Ithaca . Better bet for Syracuse is to keep it swingy but double bunk Katko/Tenney.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1429956048513798146

Anonymous source so take with a huge grain of salt.

Probably Gottheimer?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1455870033867988998

LOL VA10 is obviously shrinking so much.  All the way back to Leesburg.

IN01 is even a bigger meme.

[lfromnj]

Biden’s not been a bad president but it seems like he might receive a shellacking even greater than 2010 at this rate. I kind of feel bad for him.

You think Dems would actually lose 63 House seats when they only hold 222?

I mean the obvious similarity would be dems at 193 house seats. R+29.

[lfromnj]

Indiana 1st is definitely flippable, it has been silently trending republican

Which is why it was so boneheaded for Republicans to not change it at all. They could have shifted it 5 pts to the right with minimal line changes. Simply taking a few of the counties to the South of Lake and ceding Michigan City would’ve changed the partisan composition meaningfully.

Yeah this would have 0 controversy. It was what the 2000 district was.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1456626112491032581?t=BU8NRkb5a0sQzgmopwt...

Her home is a few miles out of the district.


She got screwed by the commision deciding to let the voice of a candidate from Pueblo say it was racist to not let her face Boebert.

[lfromnj]

https://www.carolinajournal.com/news-article/senate-candidate-walker-fielding-calls-about-returning-to-u-s-house/

Mark Walker return to the house?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1458458123488931850

A star Republican congressional candidate in Texas was accused last month by her estranged husband in court documents of “cruel and aggressive conduct” toward his 14-year-old daughter, including verbal abuse and pinching the child to stop her from crying.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1458614993126105088

Cawthorn to carpetbag over a mildly competitive seat.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1458965619378995201
Lol

[lfromnj]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

Pascrell's seat is only D+13, is overloaded with white Hispanics, and he's not a particularly popular incumbent. Still waiting to see how Ciattarelli did there overall, but several large towns trended strongly R in both 2020 and 2021. It feels like the exact sort of place where you'd have even stronger swings than nationwide.

(His seat being competitive is a personal obsession of mine, which is why I used his name, but is a very realistic option for the last domino to fall in an absolute tidal wave. Of course, redistricting may take it off the table in even the craziest scenario.)

Murphy actually did better than Biden in the town of Patterson

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1465877856567930883

[lfromnj]

Max Rose is a likely shoe-in then for the new NY-11, right?

Depends on Machine politics. I doubt in any Staten island split but they have to likely dump a lot of super progressive west Brooklyn voters no one else really wants until you reach AOC who is a bit too far away.

450k of the district will be staten Island but the dem primary turnout will probably only be like 35% staten Island due to both the fact that Staten Island Ds should be lower turnout minorities and fewer of them exist tha. The percentage of the district.


IIRC the map the dems on the commision put out is what staten island dems wanted as they would still control the primary but I doubt their concerns matter and someone has to take in those progressives.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Donald_McEachin/status/1468726400781799428

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1469325366586220550

Lol

[lfromnj]

https://www.oc-breeze.com/2021/12/20/206947_harley-rouda-releases-statement-on-ca-redistricting-commission-final-congressional-line-drawing/

Rouda seems dumb enough to primary porter.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Meagan_Flynn/status/1479163357223690247

[lfromnj]

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) continued to pad her re-election campaign war chest through the end of 2021, raking in more than $3.3 million in the final months of the year and boosting her cash on hand to $10.4 million — a record number for any U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada entering an election year.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/cortez-masto-banks-3-3-million-for-senate-bid-in-last-quarter-of-2021

It really wouldn't be that much of a surprise to see Democrats outraise Republicans across the board this cycle. Hell, that's my prediction. People really don't understand the extent to which fundraising is now a useless predictor of elections, especially with these political coalitions. Republicans, even if they're wealthier, tend to be far more skeptical of all politicians and candidates, than Democrats. They don't want to waste money on someone who will burn them later. But your yuppie Democrat type will gladly give to Nancy Pelosi or any establishment Democrat because they can be relied on to work for their interests, and the yuppie has higher levels of institutional trust.

If Republicans can still outraise Democrats, then it should be a massive R wave.

Fundraising matters to some extent. It was a reason why TX 15th was so close in 2020 but TX 34th which was politically/demographically identical was a relative blowout. It has diminishing returns very quickly.

[lfromnj]

Yes, Democrats should definitely pour tons of money into winning back the #populists of IA-1 and IA-2 who will totally snap back to 2012 voting patterns without Trump on the ballot.

Those districts have been competitive a lot more recently than 2012.

Iowa 2 even moved a point left !.

Its a waste for 2022 though.