2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

GG 70-80 seats
https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1457412028872761349?s=20

I just find it amazing how the Democrats are always elected to clean up the messes left by Republicans, but then the voters decide to hand power back to the Republicans because they don't think the Democrats are cleaning up fast enough.

Thats why you guys lose as you always think the voters are electing you guys to "fix the mess" of the previous administration. In 1992 Bill Clinton ran as a conservative Democrat who wasn't like the Tax and Spend Democrats of old and when he governed as a liberal , the public responded by saying that is not what we elected and decided to elect Republicans to the House for the first time in 40 years.


2008 yes I agree you guys were elected to fix a mess but you guys did completely squander it by spending 9 months trying to pass healthcare reform instead of pass more jobs bills.


In 2020, you guys only won cause people wanted a return to normalcy and a steady hand to deal with the pandemic. You guys were not elected to make fundamental changes to the economy or society and the fact is voters who prioritized those issues actually prefered Trump to Biden.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/RealignmentP/status/1457419368120430603?s=20

1. The 2020 house map is not the same house map as 2022

2. Not using a different shade of color to indicate the gains makes this map incredibly hard to read

[OSR stands with Israel]

GG 70-80 seats
https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1457412028872761349?s=20

I just find it amazing how the Democrats are always elected to clean up the messes left by Republicans, but then the voters decide to hand power back to the Republicans because they don't think the Democrats are cleaning up fast enough.

Thats why you guys lose as you always think the voters are electing you guys to "fix the mess" of the previous administration. In 1992 Bill Clinton ran as a conservative Democrat who wasn't like the Tax and Spend Democrats of old and when he governed as a liberal , the public responded by saying that is not what we elected and decided to elect Republicans to the House for the first time in 40 years.


2008 yes I agree you guys were elected to fix a mess but you guys did completely squander it by spending 9 months trying to pass healthcare reform instead of pass more jobs bills.


In 2020, you guys only won cause people wanted a return to normalcy and a steady hand to deal with the pandemic. You guys were not elected to make fundamental changes to the economy or society and the fact is voters who prioritized those issues actually prefered Trump to Biden.

Says who? People need to stop using this talking point and stop talking for 81 million voters.

Exit polls

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1459760630668283904?s=20

[OSR stands with Israel]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

Democrats would have to lose at least a 100 seats for that and even then they wouldn’t be as bad as a position as the GOP were from 1932-1938.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

Democrats would have to lose at least a 100 seats for that and even then they wouldn’t be as bad as a position as the GOP were from 1932-1938.

Well you have to remember that in 1932-1938 Dems about 20-30 very conservative members from the south.  So really, you should add 20-30 to the Republican number to get the true level of conservative strength in congress then.

Even then republicans still would have to get to 280-290 seats to get to that level . I’d say 1958-1966 is a better comparison if you make that adjustment than 1932-1938.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1522670972909805569

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1522670972909805569

What the hell? The Democrats suck #$%@ at messaging!

Nobody outside partisans care about this .

[OSR stands with Israel]

I’d really like a poll asking voters how much they care about abortion rights, and if they care enough for it to affect their vote in November. I understand that abortion rights are important to the activist wing of the Democratic Party but how much do older voters (who are overwhelmingly more likely to vote) actually care about whether abortion is legal in their state or not?

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1522670972909805569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

[OSR stands with Israel]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Abortion went from 9% to 25% as far as most important issue. Amazing how wrong the punditry continues to be on this.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1522608091027623936

Liberals are so used to winning they can't understand this is exactly how conservatives felt through most of 2020 (but especially the summer). But nobody made that argument in favor of Republicans then.

Well to be fair , the summer of 2020 probably did reduce the size of the democratic win so I’m not sure if this a great point to make if we are talking about electoral impact

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526927597514502144

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ousted-centrist-rep-kurt-schrader-182605265.html

The red wave begins in Oregon – Oregon’s 5th district,” he told KATU on Thursday. “That’s unfortunate.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have both pledged their full support for McLeod-Skinner, but Schrader has yet to officially endorse her.

Schrader also revealed in the interview that there is a “significant chance” he will endorse independent centrist Betsy Johnson’s gubernatorial campaign, rather than backing Democratic nominee Tina Kotek, the former speaker of the state’s House of Representatives.

“I think people are exhausted with the extreme, far-right Trumpites. I think they’re very concerned about the socialist drift on the Democrat left,” Schrader said. “So that opens up the middle.”

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is a typical midterm, Dems will lose big time, the only question is when do the polls move in the GOP favor like they did for 2014.

Before this Spring I would have agreed with this, but things have changed.  A typical midterm features high motivation by the party out of power and lower motivation by the party in power.  The overturning of Roe v Wade, by all indications, is amping up Democratic energy to a competitive level.  This is not to say that the normal midterm advantage for the out party has been wiped out; that is unlikely.  But it's fair to say that it looks like the advantage will be considerably reduced from a typical midterm.

Or more likely , elections are just high turnout now and we aren’t ever going back to pre Trump era voter turnout .  Keep in mind the Virginia gubernatorial race was very high turnout for an off year election as T-Mac won more votes than Northam and still lost .


 

[OSR stands with Israel]

The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1564411069526843398?s=21&t=4q2kvDU...

Stunning how so many GOP pundits thought in 2006 the GOP still could keep the house cause those numbers look apocalyptic. The 2006 poll numbers always seem stunning, like how did we poll that bad going into the midtmers

[OSR stands with Israel]

I also think it's interesting just in the sense that that many people still want divided government. I get that in theory you would think oh, it makes people work together. But in reality, we have seen that is not the case and divided government these days just equals less getting done entirely.

I don't think people with status quo bias expect anyone to work together, they're just in an economic place where the status quo is to their liking. They don't want the Democrats to make things fairer for the less fortunate at their expense and they don't want the Republicans to turn our country into (more of) a prison camp with daily mass shootings. They want the gridlock on non tax breaks.

In a twist nobody could possibly have seen coming, their work to preserve an unfair system that most people struggle in has removed their "delay forever and enjoy being rich" option. Most of them won't admit it or accept it until it's too late.

George Will’s famous quote :

Will said that President Barack Obama is "the most crystalline" representation today of Woodrow Wilson's philosophy, while James Madison's ideas are represented by conservative movements such as the Tea Party. "In the Madisonian persuasion, of which I am acolyte, gridlock is not an American problem, it is an American achievement,

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/09/george-will-in-defense-of-partisanship/63856/

[OSR stands with Israel]

George Will’s famous quote :

Will said that President Barack Obama is "the most crystalline" representation today of Woodrow Wilson's philosophy, while James Madison's ideas are represented by conservative movements such as the Tea Party. "In the Madisonian persuasion, of which I am acolyte, gridlock is not an American problem, it is an American achievement,

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/09/george-will-in-defense-of-partisanship/63856/

Famously conservative James Madison. Lel

This was at a time when conservative pundits tried to also argue Jefferson was a conservative too

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1576959314908282880?t=NMmzw3hFiYUO-m9YK1i...

[OSR stands with Israel]

A big question I have about the whole “partisan nonresponse” thing….why isn’t this issue solved by weighting or stratifying on 2020 presidential vote?

I.e. Why wouldn’t a Wisconsin sample be representative if the sample reports being Biden +1 in the 2020 vote?  Aren’t you guaranteeing a representative number of Trump voters in that case?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=408952.0

The sample here was Clinton +1 in MN and Trump +8 in TX and yet the poll was widely off

[OSR stands with Israel]

Washington Post-Ipsos poll of Latino voters finds D+27 on the GCB, 63-36.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/14/hispanic-voters-democrats/

Also says Dems have huge leads in Midwest, West, and Northeast, but only up by 9 in the South. Bolds well for Kelly and Masto, then.

That is not good news for RGV Dems though. Also that overall number I believe is basically the 2020 result with Hispanics