2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[progressive85]

9/11 heroes' advocate John Feal may be challenging Lee Zeldin in NY-1.  Go get him, Mr. Feal!

https://www.newsday.com/news/region-state/zeldin-capitol-attack-afl-cio-1.50116409

[progressive85]

I think it'll be either 54 or 55 Republicans in the Senate come 2023. That hinges on Colorado. That would mean the tipping-point state is the one Democrats lose by the largest margin, which I think is Arizona.

I feel that PA, WI, and NC are all R holds... AZ (Kelly), NV (Cortez Masto), GA (Warnock), and NH (Hassan) are all four likely pickups for the Reds with Mark Kelly seeming to me like the one that would survive the most.  What else is there?  This is the 2016 class, the one that came in with Cheeto the first time, so that was a red year... in fact come to think of it, every year since 2014 has been a red year for the Senate.  Even when Ds gain in the Senate, they lose other states.

[progressive85]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

I think the Republican tide is going to sweep out a lot of Democrats that appear safe now.  It's going to be at least a 60 seat pickup.  The Democrats, by having Biden as their President, are going down in a historic way in 2022.

Now, in Trump's second midterm, 2026, the Democrats will probably reverse the miserable fortunes from the first 5 years of the 20s decade but it will take 5 years to do it.

The party needs to completely rebuilt.  It has the trifecta today but it's basically useless under our current system.  This is not a Parliamentary system and just because Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker (Prime Minister in other countries) that doesn't mean the party can put forward an agenda, run on it, and deliver on those promises.

[progressive85]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

I think the Republican tide is going to sweep out a lot of Democrats that appear safe now.  It's going to be at least a 60 seat pickup.  The Democrats, by having Biden as their President, are going down in a historic way in 2022.

Now, in Trump's second midterm, 2026, the Democrats will probably reverse the miserable fortunes from the first 5 years of the 20s decade but it will take 5 years to do it.

The party needs to completely rebuilt.  It has the trifecta today but it's basically useless under our current system.  This is not a Parliamentary system and just because Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker (Prime Minister in other countries) that doesn't mean the party can put forward an agenda, run on it, and deliver on those promises.

If it’s actually a 60 pickup Biden will probably announce he’s not running again the next day.  I mean, what would the point be with a 273-162 Republican House? 

He can't run.  He's practically a lame duck and there's still technically 3 years to go.  I don't think some of the hardcore Democrat partisans realize how low the opinion is of him with young progressives.  He cannot win a primary and is not even desired as the nominee in '24.  That makes him practically cancelled by everyone except those that just like him because he's got a D next to his name.

[progressive85]

I honestly think 2022 is going to make 1994 and 2010 look like raindrops in a puddle.  There is no sugar-coating this for Team Blue: this is going to be a tsunami on a large scale, so prepare for the most right-wing House in history.

Grandpa should not be renominated in 2024.  He is a "woke" old man that is always asleep.  No need to wake him up - he'll sleep through the 2024 election anyway.

I just want to fast forward to the second Trump midterm of 2026, when Democrats finally have their Ultimate Villain back in power.

[progressive85]

Something tells me that even if the generic ballot is not a huge margin for Reds many of the marginal seats will be decided in those last 2 weeks and flip Red.  (Those seats of course become top Blue pickup opportunities in 2024.)

Will Democrats turn out is the question? Will they rally around the Party of Sinemansion that has not delivered for them, or will the idea of the pending impeachment of Joe Biden by Mitch + Kevin cause them to turn out in the end?

[progressive85]

Ds are screwed no matter what they do.  They cannot win this election.

[progressive85]

The irony is that the Republicans are going to go full Social Issues Crazy when they get all this power in 2023.  They'll ride the bad economy to take advantage of it but you watch, when they get in, it's going to be the Religious Right that drives the car... and America off a cliff.

[progressive85]

I don't take any comfort in polls, nor is it wise to be defeated by a bad poll.  It's not over until it's over... It's all about turnout so the next few weeks have to be fiercely fought.  Smugness has plagued many campaigns before, it's not wise to be popping the champagne bottles prematurely.

It was always going to be a red wave because the House is very likely to flip - the Democratic majority is so small that even a couple of pickups here and there will give Kevin McCarthy the Speaker's gavel.  The Senate and governors races are where the Democrats should pour their resources now.