2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[MT Treasurer]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-03-03/pelosi-political-fight-san-francisco-successor-congress

Article on the shadow battle for Pelosi's seat. I'm increasingly convinced that she'll retire in 2022.

She probably only retires if she expects Democrats to lose the House in 2022.

[MT Treasurer]

Nowhere in that memo does it say that the GOP will "completely abandon" the suburbs. This is about repositioning the party with messaging that is tailored to areas trending to them rather than throwing money/resources at areas that are simply unwinnable for them but happen to be the subject of GOP donors' and pundits' vested interest, e.g. VA-10 or TX-07, i.e., it’s something that should have been done years ago. Obviously Democrats would prefer to see Republicans go after "undecided" suburban/exurban Atlanta "moderates" who habitually vote straight-ticket D rather than a few seats in the RGV/Driftless/Northern Maine/NEPA/etc. etc., but at some point the party will have to wise up, especially since their 'current' strategy of fighting the battle with yesteryear's map has cost them countless seats in the House and Senate for several consecutive election cycles (and resulted in a D trifecta). However, I’m not sure I buy Republicans being smart enough to implement this strategy, even if the NRCC strikes me as more competent than the NRSC (although that’s hardly a tall order).

It’s not like this hasn’t been tried before either, especially by Republican candidates running in the South. This isn’t about emulating Trump's narcissism or lunacy, it’s about the only reasonable response to changing coalitions if the party wants to remain viable at the federal level. It’s certainly no guarantee that Republicans will actually follow through with policies that benefit working families or individuals, as Trump's not-so-'populist' presidency has made pretty obvious (Trump governing as a Reagan-ite Republican is a very underrated reason for his loss and the historic down-ballot losses the party suffered in 2018, btw).

[MT Treasurer]

A very useful reading about Senate elections :

*SNIP*

Stating the obvious pundit talking points isn’t really that useful, suggesting that IA could come into play is as outright delusional as thinking that Tim Kaine could lose in 2018 after Trump had already won, using what is increasingly becoming an inherently subjective/meaningless criterion ("problematic candidate") as input into your model is problematic, and identifying 49% as the "breaking point" at which the Senate should be considered a true Tossup is fairly generous to Democrats. This is way too reliant on uniform swing as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Especially coming from infallible high-quality gold standard Quinnipiac!

[MT Treasurer]

Generic Ballot, North Carolina

GCB: R+1
Republican 47% (n/c)
Democratic 46% (n/c)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

Biden approval: 48/49 (-1)

The meme should have always been Titanium Tilt R NC, not FL!

[MT Treasurer]

(this is probably the wrong thread for this, feel free to move)

Manchin's thinking about running again...

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/26/manchin-weighs-another-term-as-his-influence-peaks-500648

Lmaooo good luck with that, Joe.

I’m really torn here, personally — on the one hand, I’d love to see Manchin get humiliated because this guy is one of those individuals who derives particular pleasure from the game he plays and probably couldn’t handle losing; on the other hand, I wouldn’t entirely put it past Republican strategists to find a way to screw up this race or past WV voters to fall for his con job yet again, and the prospect of six more years of him in the Senate is actually really horrifying, however unlikely it may be (and I don’t think it’s any more likely than Likely R). Ideally, he runs for GOV in 2024, wins that race, and then goes full IceSpear on his voters, but it won’t happen because we can’t have nice things in this world.

[MT Treasurer]

*SNIP*

DCCC shared new polling that showed Dems falling behind Rs by **6 points** on a generic ballot in battleground districts.

Still, Maloney and his senior aides insist it's not over yet, urging Dems to make a major change to their messaging about Biden's ultra-popular agenda.

Yes, they’re about to lose the House because the agenda of this D trifecta is "ultra-popular." Maybe the best solution would be to talk more about the For the People Act.

[MT Treasurer]

*SNIP*

LOL, Biden down -11 in a state he lost by 2. Sure Jan.

And simultaneously mask mandates up by 19?

Junk it!

It’s only August 2021 and we’ve already entered that stage? Pretty remarkable.

[MT Treasurer]

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

Well, democracy was fun while it lasted.

So like R+4? I guess 1/6 helped the Republicans; we're living in Weimar America.

My prediction is that Roe v. Wade is overturned, the GOP wins big in 2022, the media spins it as Americans supporting abortion bans, and then we go full Gilead.

Like most other rhetorical devices, 'hyperbole' quickly loses its effectiveness when not employed sparingly. I don’t know why you’re doing this, but it’s really tiresome.

[MT Treasurer]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Maintaining that Axne is one of the most overrated D incumbents in the House — she’s easily in the Top 5 (if not Top 3) of most vulnerable House Democrats even if her district gets slightly bluer.

[MT Treasurer]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

[MT Treasurer]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

Obviously a partisan source, but Biden holding up better in PA-08 than AZ-01 and PA-17 particularly seems pretty doubtful (though I suppose that's in line with pollsters consistently finding overinflated Democratic numbers in the non-big metro upper Midwest).

I agree with this (and the take that the R margins are inflated in some of these districts), but this does fly in the face of the "PA is highly inelastic even in R-leaning years" theory that’s often adduced to undergird the D-friendly predictions about PA (e.g. PA voting considerably more D than WI or even NH) or disregard the state's R trend since 2008.

[MT Treasurer]

Very hard to square a D+4 GCB / Biden -3 approval with a Biden -31 approval rating in IA (from a far more reliable pollster), even if we assume that there’s a large cohort of D-leaning voters who disapprove of Biden but won’t vote R like in 2014. This is going to be another "pick out and believe in the numbers/polls you want" election.

[MT Treasurer]

Initial DSCC target list:

The DSCC investment initially will focus on Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More states and funding could be added in later phases.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-launch-30-million-field-organizing-program-keep-senate-control-n1279758

Iowa is notably not on the list, but I suspect it may be added if Grassley retires.

[MT Treasurer]

qtrash has GOP up 46-43 in their generic ballot poll

dems hold 8 point lead among whites who went to college

but dems only up 5 among hispanics.

and down 68-19 among WWC

Because apparently this poster is incapable of posting the pollster's actual name and leaving the link in the post:

8. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

46% Republican Party
43% Democratic Party
11% DK/NA

1,326 U.S. adults nationwide were surveyed from October 1st - 4th with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3823
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us10052021_uype37.pdf

Also, imagine still "unskewing" a poll based on crosstabs in the year 2021. A R+3 lead is not as unbelievable or unrealistic as you may think!

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, R+3 makes sense based on the 538 RV/LV approval rating right now

This would also represent a six-point swing from 2020 (when Dems won the GCB by 3) that would be in line with the CA-PRES 2020 -> CA-GOV 2021 swing and (potentially/likely) the VA-PRES 2020 -> VA-GOV 2021 and NJ-PRES 2020 -> NJ-GOV 2021 swings.

[MT Treasurer]

MT Treasurer sti thinks Kelly will lose

I can’t help being delusional. Clearly I should know better than to predict that Republicans will somehow win a Senate race in Arizona of all states in a Democratic trifecta midterm (and beat an astronaut at that!), but alas...

[MT Treasurer]

NC-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +7 (50-43)
Biden approval: -17 (39/56)

Conducted October 15 - 17, 2021
n=600 | ±4.00%

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/10/21125410/2110046-JLF-NC-Toplines.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

NC-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +7 (50-43)
Biden approval: -17 (39/56)

Conducted October 15 - 17, 2021
n=600 | ±4.00%

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/10/21125410/2110046-JLF-NC-Toplines.pdf

They had bad numbers early in the year for NC Dems as well.

This is somewhat of an exaggeration and completely ignores the sharp R swing since then.

Their May numbers:

GCB: GOP +1 (47-46)
Biden approval: -1 (48/49)

Conducted May 6 - 8, 2021
n=600 | ±4.0%

(hardly that bad for Democrats)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/05/14135751/2105024-JLF-NC-Toplines-v2.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

IA-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +18 (55-37)
Biden favorability: 40/59 (-19)

Conducted October 18 - 19, 2021
n=600 | ±4.0%

https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-10-22-2021.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

I don't see Democrats losing Nevada or Colorado. Even in the 2010 Wave they managed to hold those States.

NV 2008: D+12.5
NV 2020: D+2.5

Definitely unwinnable even in a GOP wave.

[MT Treasurer]

JFC. If it's true, it's not Red Wave anymore. It's Red Tsunami.

I really only would have expected numbers this bad for Democrats in the alternate timeline in which they packed the Court, added Puerto Rico and D.C., went full FDR/New Deal (including on social issues), etc. The fact that it’s gotten to this point without such escalating aggression on the part of this trifecta and without any major war/recession is again (just like in 2018) very telling and seems to suggest a more underlying dynamic of our era in which the midterm penalty has (for some reasons) become particularly harsh. This is yet another midterm election in which most observers underestimated the extent of the backlash or turnabout since the last election, the degree to which supposed "polarization" would insulate the incumbent's party against far-reaching losses, and the likelihood of the incumbent's party defying historical patterns. This pattern has repeated itself again and again, and every time a new president is elected, we are quick to believe that "things will be different" this time (I admittedly thought the same about 2018 before the 2017 elections). Unless an incumbent president figures out how to successfully run against the other party in a midterm election (a carefully targeted combination of fear and anger is always a better turnout motivator than asking voters to "reward" you or trying to lower voters' expectations), I don’t expect an 'anomalous' midterm election any time soon.

I don’t think 2022 will be another 1894 by any means, but it doesn’t even have to be another 2010 for Democrats to lose the Senate/House rather decisively.

[MT Treasurer]

BTW is 2/3rds structurally out of reach for R's in the House or not?

There's a plausible scenario where Senate R's could get there (2022 midterm blowout, then D's barely hold onto the presidency in 2024 because Trump while R's win everything competitive downballot, then another midterm blowout in 2026).

In the scenario you are describing I don't think such a majority would be 'structurally' out of reach, but that's a pretty outlandish scenario. I think ~250-260 is likely the realistic seat ceiling in the current politcal climate for Rs (D ceiling is about the same though maybe slightly higher).

2/3 would require 290 seats, which is far enough out that I'd call it 'impossible'. It'd probably require Rs winning every district that Biden won by less than 10, more or less, which would be a crazy swing. I don't think every race downballot is suddenly going to become Mcauliffe vs. Youngkin.

To get to 290, Republicans would pretty much need to win every district Biden won by 20 or less.  Winning everything he won by 10 or less in only gets them to high 240s.

OK, so it's a much harder lift than the Senate (there are only 15 states that voted left of VA in 2020 and R's already hold one senate seat among them).

Which one? ME voted to the right of VA.

[MT Treasurer]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

[MT Treasurer]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

I think Republicans could blow swingy moderate New Hampshire with Bolduc, but besides that I agree wholeheartedly.

I disagree with NH being all that "swingy" and "moderate," but yes, the NH seat is the one where they’ll need to ride a big wave for an upset (and even then, it will be a narrow win), but even that’s looking far more likely now than it did a few months ago. It’s certainly hilarious that people actually considered NH the "most likely Senate flip" for most of the year (even with Sununu or Ayotte, it’s a state that’s fairly reliably blue at the federal level except in massive Republican wave environments). While it’s true that Hassan is a fairly "weak incumbent," these things really don’t matter that much in blue state federal races.