Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

meanwhile in the real world

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1656336851534503936?cxt=HHwWgIDTgejlv...

It's over folks the Russian nazbol juggernaut is unstoppable. Ukraine should surrender since this small advance on an uninhabited and destroyed road is clearly the end of the war.

Wait a minute “meanwhile in the real world” is Bakmut Bob trying to imply the success stories the past  2 days for Ukraine in Bakhmut that both it’s high command and Wagner confirmed happened is fake?

[Storr]

Both towns are currently under Russian control. My guess this is another part of the Ukrainian effort to divert attention from the Zaporizhia front to Kherson and the Dnipro River ahead of an offensive along the former.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1656510967071772673?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I saw this discussed earlier so I thought I'd throw some of my thoughts in.

Andriy Biletsky is a deplorable fascist and a Neo-Nazi. He has softened his rhetoric in the past few years but this is cosmetic. He’s also on the deep fringe of Ukrainian politics and has never had success.

There are far-right formations in both Ukraine and Russia. Far-right, fascist, racist, antisemitic, ultranationalist armed formations have been operating on both sides since 2014. On the Russian side, these include

• Russian Orthodox Army
• Russian Imperial Movement
• Sparta Battalion
• Rusich Group (Part of PMC Wagner)
• DShRG Ratibor

And this is just a limited sample of groups with explicitly far-right ideology. It's interesting how we hear endlessly about Azov Battalion but never about this lot. Now let's talk about Azov. Azov Battalion was founded in 2014 as almost an armed wing of Social-National Assembly, a far-right party connected to Right Sector and Patriot of Ukraine. At this point, the Ukrainian state was in a state of inertia, in the midst of reconstructing its institutions, including the military, after the Revolution. Azov was one of many "volunteer battalions" that were sent into Donbas to stop the total collapse of order in Luhansk and Donetsk. Azov consisted of far-right activists and football hooligans, and its emblem at this time included a Black Sun. It operated far-right summer camps, and were absolutely a far-right organization. Since 2014, the Azov Battalion was incorporated into the National Guard, where a lot of far-right personalities were removed for political reasons, or were killed in the fighting. To say the Azov of 2022 is the same as that of 2014 is grossly misleading. And perhaps most importantly of all, this is just one regiment with a few thousand people!

This leads into my next point, there is so much talk of these far-right militias in Ukraine (weirdly so little about Russia). But what matters is how this influences the Ukrainian state. Is the Ukrainian state influenced by ultranationalist ideology? Is it influenced by fascist theory? I have yet to see any compelling argument that this is true. After all, Zelenskyy is a Russian-speaking Jew who was elected as the de facto candidate of the east. The cabinet of Prime Minister Shmyhal is full of liberals, as is Zelenskyy's circle of advisors, many of whom are personal friends, or come from the liberal-dissident, color revolutionary scene. It is not exactly a hive of ultranationalists. Many of them are not even ethnically Ukrainian!

Far-right formations exist in Russia, the state has apparently given up on curtailing their extremism. In the past, Putin as coopted ultranationalist, xenophobic groups in his state blob, but these days he exhibits less control. Furthermore, there's a lot of evidence that suggests his motivations in Ukraine are motivated by ultranationalism, specifically Ivan Ilyin, an early 20th-century White emigré and fascist intellectual.

Ukraine is not a perfect liberal democracy. I've been very critical of Viktor Yushchenko and other Ukrainian liberal figures in my own writings. But the Ukrainian state is not influenced by ultranationalism or far-right ideology, Moscow, definitely more so.

And, I haven't even mentioned how PMC Wagner is totally filled with Nazis! It totally is! It is a modern Dirlewanger Brigade.

In addition, the IFRI study from 2016:
The Far Right in the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Speaking of neo-Nazis:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1656467468079046658?s=20

The party, which was later renamed The Other Russia, had an ingenious coat of arms:
Национал-большевистская партия

It exactly personifies Putin's Russia.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1656541394759024646?s=12

[Woody]

Yeah, no, this is a Twitter offensive. Seems like cope because I have found literally nothing. They entered some positions in a gray area west of the water channels and that's pretty much it. Meanwhile Wagner still advancing in city itself.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1656409315161374720?cxt=HHwWgIC8jeDf3_wtA...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1656522699588378626?s=12

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65550427

"Zelensky says Ukraine needs more time for counter-offensive"



My guess is that this is a cover for a smaller counter-offensive to start soon.  This retains the element of surprise and if it is not successful Ukraine can always claim that it was just a probing action and not the real counter-offensive.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1656585441343074305

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1656585441343074305

Ben Wallace has confirmed it in Parliament. The original missile has a range of 560km+, but he says they have seven times less range than the Russian ones, which means he's probably talking about a shorter-ranged export variant meant to comply with an anti-missile proliferation treaty. The treaty in question limits the range to 300km; there is an extant version of an export-designated Storm Shadow missile with a range of 250km, but I wouldn't be surprised if we are just sending over domestic stock with some kind of modifications meant to limit it to 300km.

Wallace clarifies that the Ukrainians have pledged only to use it in Ukrainian territory, and that it will be fired from aircraft. It's a notable development, but be skeptical of those talking it up before it actually debuts. The performance will be limited by lack of surprise, politically and technologically limited range, the number of missiles supplied, and performance losses due to adaptation to Ukrainian aircraft.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65550427

"Zelensky says Ukraine needs more time for counter-offensive"



My guess is that this is a cover for a smaller counter-offensive to start soon.  This retains the element of surprise and if it is not successful Ukraine can always claim that it was just a probing action and not the real counter-offensive.

If you believe the leaks, the offensive is to include brand new brigades, some of which would have had just 4 months' training at the end of April. Russia has just demonstrated the dangers of using relatively green troops in an offensive.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65550427

"Zelensky says Ukraine needs more time for counter-offensive"



My guess is that this is a cover for a smaller counter-offensive to start soon.  This retains the element of surprise and if it is not successful Ukraine can always claim that it was just a probing action and not the real counter-offensive.

If you believe the leaks, the offensive is to include brand new brigades, some of which would have had just 4 months' training at the end of April. Russia has just demonstrated the dangers of using relatively green troops in an offensive.

Also, one of the worst things you can do is launch an offensive in unfavorable weather, and apparently mud season is still ongoing in Ukraine. I wonder if there were a recent historical example of an offensive launched in mud season going poorly, maybe even from the current war. Hmm, gotta think real hard on that one...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1656676712313401346?s=12

[CumbrianLefty]

Woody says this is all untrue, though. Who to believe?

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1656541394759024646?s=12

Russia took another couple of blocks, but Ukraine cleared the access road to avoid having to retreat or be encircled.

It would be interesting to know how many troops are bogged down in Bakhmut on both sides. The more bad guys there are in the Bakhmut area, the fewer that are elsewhere.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The story from December about the alleged arms shipment from South Africa (IIRC I posted this here) has escalated: https://www.ft.com/content/7ad94426-aafc-4f04-99d7-05f6d5e6f71d

The US Ambassador is now accusing SA of supplying arms via this shipment. Ramaphosa is claiming the matter is being looked into and will be spoken about (in time). There haven't been any others publicly observed since then, unlike the more steady Iranian shipments, which makes the story all the more strange (but the work of shadow fleets with transponders turned off isn't always easily observed). Perhaps it was some kind of corrupt one-time deal.

[Woody]

Woody says this is all untrue, though. Who to believe?

There are (powerful) counterattacks currently happening, especially near the water canals, little near Khromovo road too, that's all true. But this is ongoing, so people shouldn't be making bold claims as to what's where, when most of these fights are happening in gray-zones. Ukrainians could be holding a position for a few hours or a day, and then have to retreat back to previous lines.

But no doubt Ukrainians are making some sort of ploy here in Bakhmut. Not that I think it's worth it anymore, as this city is all but gone.

[Woody]

So the UK has apparently handed out all it's promised Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. Anyone have a number on how many? Only figure I can find is 14. If that's true, that's laughably low.

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1656661077244153857

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So the UK has apparently handed out all it's promised Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. Anyone have a number on how many? Only figure I can find is 14. If that's true, that's laughably low.

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1656661077244153857

14 is correct - enough for one company, but no more. The govt. plan was to make a nearly-symbolic donation to force Germany's hand, but they waited for the US to move first.

In theory, the UK will be able to send plenty more, particularly if it sticks to its plan to scale down the total number of tanks it fields during the Challenger 3 upgrade. In practice, the govt. isn't particularly competent and the low number sent may have more to do with ammunition concerns than anything else (the Challenger 2 uses a weird gun/no commonality with Leopard and Abrams). We'd probably be better off paying the US to send more Abrams, if they were willing.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1656681492834131969?s=20

[lfromnj]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65558070

Ukraine to receive longer range missiles from the UK. Upto 250 km. Should be useful for blowing up the relocated supply depots post HIMARS. At the very least it forces further relocation which would strain Russia's response to Ukraine upcoming offensive.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1656681492834131969?s=20

Entirely predictable russians.

Wasting their time and efforts to capture one small useless town while ignoring capturing and securing it's flanks first.

Imagine the most stupid thing to do, and that is what the russians will do.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Piggy is freaking out on telegram saying the flanks on Bakhmut have crumbled and is ordering Wagner to fight to the death
https://twitter.com/algarata/status/1656721143598809092?s=12

Also Russia telegram are reporting a successful Ukraine counterattack near Soledar
https://twitter.com/stateofukraine/status/1656711037356326940?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1656734924534333441?s=12
For an army that is supposedly so well dug in the orcs are seriously jumpy and nervous right now

[MasterJedi]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1656734924534333441?s=12
For an army that is supposedly so well dug in the orcs are seriously jumpy and nervous right now

Comrade Woody says this is fake.