Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Within Russia a Car Bomb injures a prominent Russian nationalist:

A car bombing on Saturday seriously wounded a prominent Russian nationalist and novelist, while killing his driver, state media reported, one of a series of internal attacks that are spreading a sense of disarray even as the country gears up to celebrate its most important annual military holiday.

The writer and Ukraine combat veteran, Zakhar Prilepin, was conscious with a broken leg and a concussion, in serious but not critical condition, according to state media reports. An explosive device was been planted under Mr. Prilepin’s Audi S.U.V. in the Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod, Tass reported.

The governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, Gleb Nikitin, wrote on Telegram that Mr. Prilepin suffered minor fractures and that there was “no threat to his health.” Two men with links to the Ukrainian special services have been detained in the region, according to REN-TV, a government-subsidized channel, and searches were being carried out in Moscow. The explosion was caused by a tank mine buried in the road, the report said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/06/world/europe/russia-prilepin-bombing.html

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1654889006834884608?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1654937129108008960?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gerjon_/status/1654946652719857664?s=20

[Storr]

Ukraine is denying it, but that's probably because they don't want to admit to the extent of their capabilities publicly:

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1654444476054601729?s=20

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1654507895646568448?s=20

They officially admitted to it:

https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1654803125667090437?s=20

[Storr]

There are continued new signs indicating the Ukrainian offensive is coming soon:

https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1654932483446652929?s=20

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1654759745071325184?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1654747364106678272?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Ramzan Kadyrov chimes in.

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1654530349790003214?t=oGItQFpkDATt-t2wk0_S...

If the older brother Prigozhin and Wagner leave, then the General Staff will lose an experienced combat unit, and his younger brother Kadyrov and Akhmat will come to his place...

Does the head of the republic consider himself inferior to the leader of a private military company?

Like Putin’s long-standing words that all his “cooks” are from the FSO (the Federal Guard Service), like the FSO garage next to the Wagner Center, like the obscene insanely brazen demand to the Ministry of Defense to increase the supply of ammunition, this once again confirms that the Wagner is really secret division of the FSO. Well, and like a thousand other clues.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1654962737494016001?s=12

[Woody]

WSJ - Senior Ukrainian officials fear counterattack may not live up to hype

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/06/ukraine-counteroffensive-expectations-hype-russia/

“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview this past week. “Most people are … waiting for something huge,” he added, which he fears may lead to “emotional disappointment.”

The planned counterattack — made possible by donated Western weapons and training — could mark the most consequential phase of the war, as Ukraine seeks to snatch back significant territory and prove it is worthy of continued support.

Kyiv is eager to make a rapid breakthrough in what has essentially slowed to a grinding artillery war in the country’s east and south, with neither side making significant territorial gains. Experts say it will be difficult, if not impossible, to push the Russians back to their positions before the invasion started on Feb. 24, 2022, when Moscow held parts of Luhansk and Donetsk and the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula.

30 kilometers, 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers?”

A major success could rally more support for the Western arms and ammunition Ukraine needs to continue the fight and offer a much-needed morale boost for the civilian population, which relished Ukrainian forces’ resilience against Russia’s efforts to take Kyiv last spring and later their surprise autumn offensive in the Kharkiv region, which retook hundreds of miles of territory in a matter of days.

But in Kharkiv the Ukrainians had an advantage when they stormed Russian troops — who had lowered their defenses — by surprise. Many who remained simply fled without a fight. And in Kherson to the south, Ukraine had a major geographic edge, with Russia struggling to supply troops west of the Dnieper River.

Now, Russia may have the geographic advantage and stronger numbers. Some 500,000 Russian troops are currently focused in Ukraine, with at least 300,000 inside Ukrainian territory, Reznikov said.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WSJ - Senior Ukrainian officials fear counterattack may not live up to hype

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/06/ukraine-counteroffensive-expectations-hype-russia/

“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview this past week. “Most people are … waiting for something huge,” he added, which he fears may lead to “emotional disappointment.”

The planned counterattack — made possible by donated Western weapons and training — could mark the most consequential phase of the war, as Ukraine seeks to snatch back significant territory and prove it is worthy of continued support.

Kyiv is eager to make a rapid breakthrough in what has essentially slowed to a grinding artillery war in the country’s east and south, with neither side making significant territorial gains. Experts say it will be difficult, if not impossible, to push the Russians back to their positions before the invasion started on Feb. 24, 2022, when Moscow held parts of Luhansk and Donetsk and the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula.

30 kilometers, 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers?”

A major success could rally more support for the Western arms and ammunition Ukraine needs to continue the fight and offer a much-needed morale boost for the civilian population, which relished Ukrainian forces’ resilience against Russia’s efforts to take Kyiv last spring and later their surprise autumn offensive in the Kharkiv region, which retook hundreds of miles of territory in a matter of days.

But in Kharkiv the Ukrainians had an advantage when they stormed Russian troops — who had lowered their defenses — by surprise. Many who remained simply fled without a fight. And in Kherson to the south, Ukraine had a major geographic edge, with Russia struggling to supply troops west of the Dnieper River.

Now, Russia may have the geographic advantage and stronger numbers. Some 500,000 Russian troops are currently focused in Ukraine, with at least 300,000 inside Ukrainian territory, Reznikov said.

What matters most is how well a counteroffensive works within the broader picture, let it be for just an operation and/or an overall war. I'm sure that bureaucrats on both sides know that, and act accordingly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1654962737494016001?s=12

I would not be surprised if Wagner was hurt by arbitrary action from the Russian MoD officials.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1654552680101031940

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1654552680101031940

Thanks for sharing.

[Torie]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65515443

Ukraine war: 'Mad panic' as Russia evacuates town near Zaporizhzhia plant

If Ukraine is worried about counter offensive hype, it should tell this guy to shut up:


On Sunday, the Ukrainian general staff said civilians were being evacuated to the cities of Berdyansk and Prymorsk, further inside Russian-held territory.

The exiled mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, wrote on Telegram that shops in the evacuated areas had run out of goods and medicine.

He also said hospitals were discharging patients into the street amid fears that electricity and water supplies could be suspended if Ukraine attacks the region.

And he claimed that two-thirds of evacuation convoys - allegedly made up of civilians - consisted of retreating Russian troops. The BBC cannot verify this claim.

"The partial evacuation they announced is going too fast, and there is a possibility that they may be preparing for provocations and (for that reason) focusing on civilians," Mr Fedorov added.

[NOVA Green]

And it looks like Wagner might not be pulling out from Bakhmut after all.

The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said on Sunday that he had been promised as much ammunition and weaponry as needed to continue the fight for the embattled Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, two days after he threatened to withdraw his fighters because Moscow’s Ministry of Defense was failing to support them.

“We have been promised as much ammunition and armament as we need to keep going,” the Wagner group’s founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said in an audio statement released Sunday on his channel on the Telegram messaging app. There was no immediate comment from Russia’s defense ministry.

Mr. Prigozhin also said that Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the air force nicknamed “General Armageddon,” had been appointed as his liaison with the military.

If confirmed, the appointment of Gen. Surovikin, who developed a close relationship with Wagner while commanding the Russian forces in Syria, could help address the deep-seated tension between the Wagner mercenary forces and the regular Russian Army, which has repeatedly interrupted Russian efforts to push forward in Ukraine.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea.html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And it looks like Wagner might not be pulling out from Bakhmut after all.

The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said on Sunday that he had been promised as much ammunition and weaponry as needed to continue the fight for the embattled Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, two days after he threatened to withdraw his fighters because Moscow’s Ministry of Defense was failing to support them.

“We have been promised as much ammunition and armament as we need to keep going,” the Wagner group’s founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said in an audio statement released Sunday on his channel on the Telegram messaging app. There was no immediate comment from Russia’s defense ministry.

Mr. Prigozhin also said that Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the air force nicknamed “General Armageddon,” had been appointed as his liaison with the military.

If confirmed, the appointment of Gen. Surovikin, who developed a close relationship with Wagner while commanding the Russian forces in Syria, could help address the deep-seated tension between the Wagner mercenary forces and the regular Russian Army, which has repeatedly interrupted Russian efforts to push forward in Ukraine.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea.html

Threaten to (effectively) desert and get rewarded with supplies which were presumably bound for other units. Wagner has a particularly high profile, but it's still a bit surprising they pulled this off.

It may have implications for other Russian army units and mercenary groups. Pretty much all of them want more supplies and might be willing to play this kind of dangerous game to win them, which would be bad news for the military as a whole.

[Woody]

If I was the Russians, I would make it seem like there would be a divide among the different ranks, to fool the Ukrainians.

Like Sun Tzu said: Appear weak when you're strong.

[Hindsight was 2020]

And it looks like Wagner might not be pulling out from Bakhmut after all.

The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said on Sunday that he had been promised as much ammunition and weaponry as needed to continue the fight for the embattled Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, two days after he threatened to withdraw his fighters because Moscow’s Ministry of Defense was failing to support them.

“We have been promised as much ammunition and armament as we need to keep going,” the Wagner group’s founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said in an audio statement released Sunday on his channel on the Telegram messaging app. There was no immediate comment from Russia’s defense ministry.

Mr. Prigozhin also said that Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the air force nicknamed “General Armageddon,” had been appointed as his liaison with the military.

If confirmed, the appointment of Gen. Surovikin, who developed a close relationship with Wagner while commanding the Russian forces in Syria, could help address the deep-seated tension between the Wagner mercenary forces and the regular Russian Army, which has repeatedly interrupted Russian efforts to push forward in Ukraine.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea.html

Too bad I was looking forward to the tiktok army getting embarrassed again 😭

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And it looks like Wagner might not be pulling out from Bakhmut after all.

The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said on Sunday that he had been promised as much ammunition and weaponry as needed to continue the fight for the embattled Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, two days after he threatened to withdraw his fighters because Moscow’s Ministry of Defense was failing to support them.

“We have been promised as much ammunition and armament as we need to keep going,” the Wagner group’s founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said in an audio statement released Sunday on his channel on the Telegram messaging app. There was no immediate comment from Russia’s defense ministry.

Mr. Prigozhin also said that Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the air force nicknamed “General Armageddon,” had been appointed as his liaison with the military.

If confirmed, the appointment of Gen. Surovikin, who developed a close relationship with Wagner while commanding the Russian forces in Syria, could help address the deep-seated tension between the Wagner mercenary forces and the regular Russian Army, which has repeatedly interrupted Russian efforts to push forward in Ukraine.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea.html

Too bad I was looking forward to the tiktok army getting embarrassed again 😭

Tiktok army really is a perfect moniker for them.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1655249041091903489?s=20

[Storr]

And it looks like Wagner might not be pulling out from Bakhmut after all.

The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said on Sunday that he had been promised as much ammunition and weaponry as needed to continue the fight for the embattled Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, two days after he threatened to withdraw his fighters because Moscow’s Ministry of Defense was failing to support them.

“We have been promised as much ammunition and armament as we need to keep going,” the Wagner group’s founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said in an audio statement released Sunday on his channel on the Telegram messaging app. There was no immediate comment from Russia’s defense ministry.

Mr. Prigozhin also said that Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the air force nicknamed “General Armageddon,” had been appointed as his liaison with the military.

If confirmed, the appointment of Gen. Surovikin, who developed a close relationship with Wagner while commanding the Russian forces in Syria, could help address the deep-seated tension between the Wagner mercenary forces and the regular Russian Army, which has repeatedly interrupted Russian efforts to push forward in Ukraine.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea.html

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1655142745193758720?s=20

[Storr]

google translation:

 "A terrible tragedy in the family of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

6 employees of the State Emergency Service, who were engaged in humanitarian demining of the Kherson region, came under targeted fire from the Russians.

"Our heroes had no weapons, but they had big hearts. They risked their lives every day so that others could live," Ihor Klymenko."

"Unfortunately, the Russians killed them.

Ihor Solovyov, Oleksandr Khodakovsky, Andriy Orlov, Volodymyr Pogorely, Mykola Sholokh, Roman Kalenyk.
We will always remember you.

Honor."

https://twitter.com/MVS_UA/status/1654888681969274880?s=20

[John Dule]

If I was the Russians, I would make it seem like there would be a divide among the different ranks, to fool the Ukrainians.

What if you were American?

[Storr]

It's my belief that Lukashenko's regime is more likely to collapse than Putin's. It really only serves as a buffer region for Russia and Lukashenko is only in power due to Russian support. When it comes down to it, Putin will sacrifice Lukashenko for his own survival if he finds it necessary.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1655314750853595141?s=20

[Woody]

If I was the Russians, I would make it seem like there would be a divide among the different ranks, to fool the Ukrainians.

What if you were American?

For one, not be an adult Libertarian.

[HillGoose]

If I was the Russians, I would make it seem like there would be a divide among the different ranks, to fool the Ukrainians.

Like Sun Tzu said: Appear weak when you're strong.

I wonder how Sun Tzu would react to a 1000lb JDAM hitting his house