Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[rc18]

The UK looks poised to send long range missiles to Ukraine:

In a procurement notice posted May 2 by the British-led International Fund for Ukraine, a group of northern European counties that have set up a mechanism to send weapons to the battlefield, the United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry asked for “expressions of interest” in providing strike capabilities with a range of up to 300 kilometers, or nearly 200 miles. The notice asked for responses within three days.

No final decision has been made, according to a British official who declined to confirm the type, timing or quantity of weaponry under consideration. But the notice is a substantive step toward Britain itself supplying such munitions, and the requested specifications and capabilities closely match its air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

Storm Shadows can be mounted on Ukraine’s Soviet-made jets and reach into Russian territory. Kyiv has long sought that capability, and tried to ease Western escalation fears with pledges it would refrain from using donated weapons in such attacks.

“If we could strike at a distance of up to 300 kilometers, the Russian army wouldn’t be able to provide defense and will have to lose,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the European Union earlier this year. “Ukraine is ready to provide any guarantees that your weapons will not be involved in attacks on the Russian territory.”

Weeks before those remarks, according to a previously unreported file included among the classified U.S. documents leaked online through the Discord messaging platform, U.S. intelligence confirmed Britain intended to send Ukraine an unspecified number of Storm Shadow missiles, along with British personnel to aid in targeting.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/08/britain-ukraine-long-range-missile/

Though they're not getting back to bidders until early June, a month after the call closed.

Take your time lads, it's not like there's a war on or anything.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1655854286994022400?cxt=HHwWgICxge6s4_otAAAA

They need to laugh at the fact that Russia can only afford to send one T-34 for the parade.

The irony has not been lost on Ukrainians that this symbol of Russian pride, the T-34, was designed in Kharkiv, Ukraine...

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1655844740368068608

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1655854286994022400?cxt=HHwWgICxge6s4_otAAAA

They need to laugh at the fact that Russia can only afford to send one T-34 for the parade.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1655843168225488899?s=12
Also to laugh at this

[jaichind]

PRC export surge to Russia continues.  Despite a big fall in collective West exports to Russia, especially, German, thanks to PRC total Russian imports are higher than pre-war levels helping to provide the material means for Russia to limit the impact on the civilian economy while boosting its military economy.

[jaichind]

Some interesting import numbers for some economies right next to Russia.  Notice the German export surge to Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey and the massive PRC to Belorus export surge.  They are all signs of shadow exports to Russia.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Happy May the 9th everyone and would you look at that

[2952-0-0]

I guess Putin was really afraid of a drone strike during the parade, which is why it was so underwhelming.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1655844740368068608

lol...

I looked it up. The T-34 tank was manufactured between 1940 and 1958. Tells you how well the special operation is going.

[Torie]

OK, Ukraine by concentrating its forces at one point against a dispersed Russian defense line, cuts through the first line of defense. So the fix is for Russia to rush troops to the sector to reinforce the second line of defense. Problem solved for Russia.

Except that moving troops around means on roads and trains right? What is to prevent Ukraine with far better ordinance now than then, to do to those Russian troop columns what it did to the Russian columns between the Belarus border and Kiev, that for so many, turned out to be a one way ticket?

Who is bold enough to help an old man out here? Twitter blurbs don't do much for me by the way.

CC: Woody

[Torie]

lol...

I looked it up. The T-34 tank was manufactured between 1940 and 1958. Tells you how well the special operation is going.

The sound of that tank motor running sounded just so 19th century. I expected steam to be coming up from under its carriage. In this day and age, military parades have become an embarrassment. They should be done away with.

CC King Charles III

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yesterday, Prigozhin reiterated his complaint that 90% of the promised ammunition had not yet been supplied and threatened to pull out of Bakhmut again (although he did not state 'May 10' as he did last time). Today, he decided to take things a step further and offered a very thinly veiled criticism of Putin:

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1655916277565730816

Worth noting that Girkin's said similar things in the past and remains alive, but Girkin doesn't command a militia anymore. In other videos released around this time, Prigozhin names and shames various units which allegedly abandoned positions taken by Wagner. I'll try to avoid spamming the thread with his various pronouncements, but I thought him aiming for the king was worth mentioning here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yesterday, Prigozhin reiterated his complaint that 90% of the promised ammunition had not yet been supplied and threatened to pull out of Bakhmut again (although he did not state 'May 10' as he did last time). Today, he decided to take things a step further and offered a very thinly veiled criticism of Putin:

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1655916277565730816
Worth noting that Girkin's said similar things in the past and remains alive, but Girkin doesn't command a militia anymore. In other videos released around this time, Prigozhin names and shames various units which allegedly abandoned positions taken by Wagner. I'll try to avoid spamming the thread with his various pronouncements, but I thought him aiming for the king was worth mentioning here.

Live footage of Prigozhin saying unhappy things to Putin in a phone call (if they are even talking with each other).

[Hindsight was 2020]

OK, Ukraine by concentrating its forces at one point against a dispersed Russian defense line, cuts through the first line of defense. So the fix is for Russia to rush troops to the sector to reinforce the second line of defense. Problem solved for Russia.

Except that moving troops around means on roads and trains right? What is to prevent Ukraine with far better ordinance now than then, to do to those Russian troop columns what it did to the Russian columns between the Belarus border and Kiev, that for so many, turned out to be a one way ticket?

Who is bold enough to help an old man out here? Twitter blurbs don't do much for me by the way.

CC: Woody

Artillery support is better for Russia now than during Kyiv which would be the mainly difference but they’ll still run into these issues.

[lfromnj]

OK, Ukraine by concentrating its forces at one point against a dispersed Russian defense line, cuts through the first line of defense. So the fix is for Russia to rush troops to the sector to reinforce the second line of defense. Problem solved for Russia.

Except that moving troops around means on roads and trains right? What is to prevent Ukraine with far better ordinance now than then, to do to those Russian troop columns what it did to the Russian columns between the Belarus border and Kiev, that for so many, turned out to be a one way ticket?

Who is bold enough to help an old man out here? Twitter blurbs don't do much for me by the way.

CC: Woody

The original assault on Kyiv had more of a fluid frontline. If you look at the actual map there were various Russian arrows pointing to Kiev with large gaps between them leaving it completely open to light or mobile military units. Russia also wasn't using air defense  in the first few days of the war which left their large convoy like marches vulnerable to aerial attack such as Bayraktars. The fact that these units were organized into convoys meant that if you hit the front unit of the convoy the entire convoy would be forced to stop leaving them more vulnerable.


Most of these factors aren't there anymore as while the Russian army is idiotic they have shown some propensity to learn, we haven't seen anymore of those large convoy attacks and they also have learnt from the disaster of HIMARS. While the Ukrainians still get a strike on an ammo depot once in a while it isn't at the same level as  before around November of last year as the Russians have pulled their large ammo depots a bit further back from the frontlines.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/stephenwertheim/status/1655933075799564289

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1655903508636348419?s=12
🍿

[Torie]

Thanks for the reply, but if reinforcements are going cross country rather than along roads, moving from here to there might be a slow process.

[Woody]

Russians have been more successful in jamming HIMARS these last months. Rendering them "less effective". As the counter-offensive closes in, this is a major priority to Ukrainians.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/05/07/us-ukraine-tweak-himars-software-to-counter-russian-jamming-efforts-cnn/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/06/ukraine-himars-software-rockets-russia-jam/
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html

The medium-range rocket systems were hailed as a game changer in the conflict and have played a key role since the moment they arrived in Ukraine last summer, including in last year’s offensive that allowed Ukraine to take back significant swaths of territory from Russia.

But in recent months, the systems have been rendered increasingly less effective by the Russians’ intensive blocking, five US, British and Ukrainian sources tell CNN, forcing US and Ukrainian officials to find ways to tweak the HIMARS’ software to counter the evolving Russian jamming efforts.

With a major Ukrainian counteroffensive expected to start very soon and Ukraine’s reliance on HIMARS, solutions are even more of a priority so that Ukrainian troops can make significant headway.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1655903508636348419?s=12
🍿

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1655857495808659456?s=20

[Virginiá]

OK, Ukraine by concentrating its forces at one point against a dispersed Russian defense line, cuts through the first line of defense. So the fix is for Russia to rush troops to the sector to reinforce the second line of defense. Problem solved for Russia.

Except that moving troops around means on roads and trains right? What is to prevent Ukraine with far better ordinance now than then, to do to those Russian troop columns what it did to the Russian columns between the Belarus border and Kiev, that for so many, turned out to be a one way ticket?

Who is bold enough to help an old man out here? Twitter blurbs don't do much for me by the way.

CC: Woody

Ukraine has gotten a buttload of self-propelled (re: highly mobile) artillery systems in the lead up to this offensive, and if they are supplied with a significant amount of shells (200,000+) for at least the first 30 days in that theater, that would give them a freer hand in suppressing Russian units & other reinforcements, even cross-country. There are some indications they might have the shells for this, but the US has stopped saying how much they are giving and what is going on with Europe's 1m initiative is nebulous in terms of quantity and timing (for us plebs, anyway).

When you combine that with a large surge in attack drones, there is reason to think Ukraine might not struggle with penetrating these lines as much as one might think.

Deception also matters a lot, too, as it always has. Getting Russia to pre-position troops and equipment to the wrong spots is important. In that case, their response times simply wouldn't be good enough to stop a breakthrough if and when it finally happens.

[Storr]

Probably a nothingburger, but still weird:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1655990501550456844?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1655921760368205824?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1656026539564171265?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1656026539564171265?s=20

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1656067343208906752?s=20

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1656064355539058688?s=20

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1656060182965678081?s=20

[Woody]

Eww, don't quote him. From Wikipedia:

During the Kosovo War, Biletsky and a group of other Ukrainians attempted to join the Yugoslav Army as volunteers to fight against the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), but the war ended before they arrived at the front.

In 2010, Biletsky said that the Ukrainian nation's mission is to "lead the white races of the world in a final crusade...against Semite-led Untermenschen". Biletsky denied ever making such remarks and said that it was a fake quotation fabricated by Sergey Lavrov to defame him.....

....The Independent reported in 2022 that Biletsky is also known as White Leader. In 2013 he wrote a brochure called The Word of the White Leader. According to a 2021 paper by political scientists Umland and Fedorenko, he had been known as white leader before 2014, but has subsequently claimed that "if someone called me white leader face-to-face, [that person] would have been beaten".

As of 2014, the BBC, The Independent and The Moscow Times have described Biletsky as a white supremacist. As of 2014 he had been accused of neo-Nazi views by sociologist Volodymyr Ishchenko.

In 2018, The Guardian reported that Biletsky "has toned down his rhetoric in recent years". Freedom House initiative Reporting Radicalism reported as of 2022 that he has not publicly made racist remarks since 2014, but he does "invoke anti-LGBT+ rhetoric frequently". Umland and Fedorenko wrote in 2021 that he still publicly objects to multiculturalism, but has stated "to be a Ukrainian nationalist today is to believe in values, not racial prejudice", and announced that his party does not use ethnicity to define who can, or cannot, be part of the nation Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andriy_Biletsky