Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wagner is launching a major assault in Bakmut right now per telegram. The deadline is 2 more days so they’ll be desperate

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1655496507091480576?s=20

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1655211677304881153?cxt=HHwWgoCw3YaQv_g...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1655569145545601025?s=12
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1655570162873925634?s=12
😗

[Woody]

Very sus decision. Why would you let Russia inherit and claim the May 9th Victory Day for itself?

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1655477131869143040?cxt=HHwWgIC-rcXrt_ktA...

[Torie]

And it looks like Wagner might not be pulling out from Bakhmut after all.

The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said on Sunday that he had been promised as much ammunition and weaponry as needed to continue the fight for the embattled Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, two days after he threatened to withdraw his fighters because Moscow’s Ministry of Defense was failing to support them.

“We have been promised as much ammunition and armament as we need to keep going,” the Wagner group’s founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said in an audio statement released Sunday on his channel on the Telegram messaging app. There was no immediate comment from Russia’s defense ministry.

Mr. Prigozhin also said that Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the air force nicknamed “General Armageddon,” had been appointed as his liaison with the military.

If confirmed, the appointment of Gen. Surovikin, who developed a close relationship with Wagner while commanding the Russian forces in Syria, could help address the deep-seated tension between the Wagner mercenary forces and the regular Russian Army, which has repeatedly interrupted Russian efforts to push forward in Ukraine.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea.html

Threaten to (effectively) desert and get rewarded with supplies which were presumably bound for other units. Wagner has a particularly high profile, but it's still a bit surprising they pulled this off.

It may have implications for other Russian army units and mercenary groups. Pretty much all of them want more supplies and might be willing to play this kind of dangerous game to win them, which would be bad news for the military as a whole.

Would you rather be in a well armed Wagner unit, or without ammunition in a regular Russian army unit at the front, so you can't even frag your officers?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1655496507091480576?s=20

This is needed. So much of the commentary about the Ukrainian offensive is this idea that we will have one big war ending push and then we start the peace process with whatever lines are there afterwards.
We need to recognize that the likely scenario is Ukraine takes what it can without overextending, holds and reconsolidates for another push. Peace is not possible as long as any part of Ukraine is under occupation.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1655496507091480576?s=20

This is needed. So much of the commentary about the Ukrainian offensive is this idea that we will have one big war ending push and then we start the peace process with whatever lines are there afterwards.
We need to recognize that the likely scenario is Ukraine takes what it can without overextending, holds and reconsolidates for another push. Peace is not possible as long as any part of Ukraine is under occupation.

Agreed, even if the counteroffensive goes as perfectly (they get to the sea and split Russian lines in half and blow up the Crimea bridge) the Russian will still hold out for at least another year

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't know how this war will end, but yes Ukraine will want to retake more territory first.

[President Johnson]

What a surprise. NOT.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1655593919491592194

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1655630066577989645?s=12
A really interesting thread about how many troops Russia needs to defend against a counterattack. For the tldr crowd the current numbers aren’t enough and was made worse by the Bakmut battle

[Woody]

the russians would need something like the 54,000 troops per 30km of front... for the entire 800 km of front inside Ukraine this would be 1,440,000 troops.

I stopped there. This guy is insane.

[Woody]

Suggest reading this thread - Very detailed about Russia's trench systems (specifically the south), what it's purpose are, and expectations for the counter-offensive.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1655642475489529856?cxt=HHwWgMDQqeeDg_otAAAA

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lol I had a suspicion that tweet thread would up get a response from a certain “Russia is winning guys!! Bakmut will fall any day now trust me!!” poster

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Suggest reading this thread - Very detailed about Russia's trench systems (specifically the south), what it's purpose are, and expectations for the counter-offensive.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1655642475489529856?cxt=HHwWgMDQqeeDg_otAAAA

Yeah that’s called defense in depth. Everyone figured that out in 1915

[oldtimer]

the russians would need something like the 54,000 troops per 30km of front... for the entire 800 km of front inside Ukraine this would be 1,440,000 troops.

I stopped there. This guy is insane.

Well lets calculate, the front is about 500 miles long, russia probably only has 150k on the front, lets double it and say 300k max.

That's max 1 soldier every 3 yards or so , you can drive a cars through the gaps.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1655647191912833050?cxt=HHwWtICztauWhfo...
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1655649190142173190

[Hindsight was 2020]

the russians would need something like the 54,000 troops per 30km of front... for the entire 800 km of front inside Ukraine this would be 1,440,000 troops.

I stopped there. This guy is insane.

Well lets calculate, the front is about 500 miles long, russia probably only has 150k on the front, lets double it and say 300k max.

That's max 1 soldier every 3 yards or so , you can drive a cars through the gaps.

Even with the fortifications they have if they don’t have enough people staffed that creates soft spots for Ukraine to find a breakthrough in. And worse for Russia if this breakthrough happens the fortifications they have set up his hinder counter attack on the flanks

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1655695265930661892?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1655610389655085057?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And it looks like Wagner might not be pulling out from Bakhmut after all.

The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said on Sunday that he had been promised as much ammunition and weaponry as needed to continue the fight for the embattled Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, two days after he threatened to withdraw his fighters because Moscow’s Ministry of Defense was failing to support them.

“We have been promised as much ammunition and armament as we need to keep going,” the Wagner group’s founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said in an audio statement released Sunday on his channel on the Telegram messaging app. There was no immediate comment from Russia’s defense ministry.

Mr. Prigozhin also said that Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the air force nicknamed “General Armageddon,” had been appointed as his liaison with the military.

If confirmed, the appointment of Gen. Surovikin, who developed a close relationship with Wagner while commanding the Russian forces in Syria, could help address the deep-seated tension between the Wagner mercenary forces and the regular Russian Army, which has repeatedly interrupted Russian efforts to push forward in Ukraine.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea.html

Threaten to (effectively) desert and get rewarded with supplies which were presumably bound for other units. Wagner has a particularly high profile, but it's still a bit surprising they pulled this off.

It may have implications for other Russian army units and mercenary groups. Pretty much all of them want more supplies and might be willing to play this kind of dangerous game to win them, which would be bad news for the military as a whole.

Kadryov, who was loud but pro-Wagner until now, demonstrates the problem of setting this precedent here.

https://twitter.com/Jack_Mrgln/status/1655683353805221888

[Virginiá]

the russians would need something like the 54,000 troops per 30km of front... for the entire 800 km of front inside Ukraine this would be 1,440,000 troops.

I stopped there. This guy is insane.

Well lets calculate, the front is about 500 miles long, russia probably only has 150k on the front, lets double it and say 300k max.

That's max 1 soldier every 3 yards or so , you can drive a cars through the gaps.

Even with the fortifications they have if they don’t have enough people staffed that creates soft spots for Ukraine to find a breakthrough in. And worse for Russia if this breakthrough happens the fortifications they have set up his hinder counter attack on the flanks

I would say the defensive lines won't stop the Ukrainians, but it'll slow them down, and if the Russians have actual soldiers and heavy weapons to defend the area, it'll bog them down while more reinforcements arrive to push the ZSU back. That's the idea, anyway. All these fortifications and minefields are useless unless there are people there to defend it. And that's the million dollar question here. Does the RuAF actually have enough soldiers manning these lines to defend them? Are they coordinated enough to respond to breakthroughs? Do they even have the resources and weapons to defend against a large attacking force?

My personal opinion is that there are probably a lot of areas that are weakly manned, and the ability of reinforcements to respond may be a lot less than ideal, but they won't necessarily be a bunch of bumbling idiots, either. This is where actual training will matter a great deal.

[Meclazine for Israel]

When did Virginia turn into a military strategist?

[NOVA Green]

The UK looks poised to send long range missiles to Ukraine:

In a procurement notice posted May 2 by the British-led International Fund for Ukraine, a group of northern European counties that have set up a mechanism to send weapons to the battlefield, the United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry asked for “expressions of interest” in providing strike capabilities with a range of up to 300 kilometers, or nearly 200 miles. The notice asked for responses within three days.

No final decision has been made, according to a British official who declined to confirm the type, timing or quantity of weaponry under consideration. But the notice is a substantive step toward Britain itself supplying such munitions, and the requested specifications and capabilities closely match its air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

Storm Shadows can be mounted on Ukraine’s Soviet-made jets and reach into Russian territory. Kyiv has long sought that capability, and tried to ease Western escalation fears with pledges it would refrain from using donated weapons in such attacks.

“If we could strike at a distance of up to 300 kilometers, the Russian army wouldn’t be able to provide defense and will have to lose,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the European Union earlier this year. “Ukraine is ready to provide any guarantees that your weapons will not be involved in attacks on the Russian territory.”

Weeks before those remarks, according to a previously unreported file included among the classified U.S. documents leaked online through the Discord messaging platform, U.S. intelligence confirmed Britain intended to send Ukraine an unspecified number of Storm Shadow missiles, along with British personnel to aid in targeting.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/08/britain-ukraine-long-range-missile/

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1655854286994022400?cxt=HHwWgICxge6s4_ot...

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1655854286994022400?cxt=HHwWgICxge6s4_otAAAA

They need to laugh at the fact that Russia can only afford to send one T-34 for the parade.