Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

...
They have idiots as leaders, they don't mass mobilize, they don't mass produce, they just sit there until it's too late for them to win.

If they ever do a movie about it would inevitably have a scene like this one about russian soldiers moaning about their incompetent government

It started long before this war and it's happening now. Soldiers complain about the lack of equipment and ammunition, Wagner leaders curse the Ministry of Defense with the strongest insults, and Girkin's best friend, Colonel Kvachkov, once tried to blow up one of the key statesmen.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

That's direct video evidence that should be playing in Putin's war crime trial someday hopefully. How were the children gotten back to Ukraine though I wonder? Was there some agreement between the two-sides on this issue to return them?

As far as I heard, they were semi-illegally taken back to Free Ukraine by volunteers.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Are there any concessions with Taiwan to Xi to make him order Piglet to end the war immediately?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

"Moment Austria’s pro-Russia lawmakers walk out of Zelensky’s speech to parliament"

Austria's PFO gives Zelensky the walk out treatment

Lawmakers from the pro-Russia, far-right Freedom Party (FPO) walked out of the lower house of Austria’s parliament on Thursday 30 March during a speech by Volodymyr Zelensky.

Nazi agents of Nazi Putin, as usual.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

This party is polling the highest of all parties currently in Austria

This means that Austria is becoming as pro-Russian and crypto-fascist as its old comrade Hungary.

By the way, the Austrian special service killed a Kazakh oppositionist in 2015 right in Vienna.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

What if Mr. Putin's ill advised foray into Ukraine had less to do with keeping the former Soviet Republics in line, preventing the spread of NATO (and EU membership) Eastwards, but rather to ensure that the Russian people would stand in line and not rebel against the regime?

Tightening the screws is not a cause, but a consequence. A consequence of Putin being an agent of the Chinese National Communists, intent on weakening Russia enough to make it a weak-willed Chinese puppet like the impoverished DPRK. And anyone with enough sense to see this betrayal becomes Putin's personal enemy. Like this journalist who loves Russia, for example.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The idea that Putin will become Beijing's puppet is too simplified and doesn't capture the required nuance.

Yes, I have always rejected this idea as too boring because of its too obvious. But apparently this is how it works in reality - the too boring and the too obvious turns out to be what it really is.

In response to your post in general, I think Winnie the Pooh will not be upset at all if something happens to the Putin regime or Russia. I think there is nothing more profitable for him than using Russia as a kamikaze in a nuclear war against the United States. Or at least to use Russia for blackmail: peace in Europe in exchange for the annexation of Taiwan.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

In response to your post in general, I think Winnie the Pooh will not be upset at all if something happens to the Putin regime or Russia. I think there is nothing more profitable for him than using Russia as a kamikaze in a nuclear war against the United States. Or at least to use Russia for blackmail: peace in Europe in exchange for the annexation of Taiwan.

Oh no, I disagree with this. The events of 1989-91 shook the CCP to the core. It just so happens that the people who were in their political formative years back then are now in the halls of power, including Winnie himself. For the same thing to happen again 30 years later, but in a much more dramatic fashion (i.e. the west destroyed Russia by using a smaller part of Russia to wage a proxy war), would re-traumatize them. It would shatter the domestic political narrative. Again, I don't think this will be fatal to Xi or the CCP, but it's not something they want.

Then there's the question: to what extent could China really help Russia in its war, especially if it's failing? Suppose say that Winnie agrees to send a million artillery shells to Russia. He can easily order this. Then, the shells are loaded onto a train heading north. The train arrives at Irkutsk, where the local army commander demands that 100,000 shells be offloaded in order to boost up the nation's strategic reserves. Then, the train moves on to Krasnoyarsk, where the local army commander makes the same demand. Then Novosibirsk, Omsk, etc, etc. By the time the train arrives in eastern Ukraine, there are only 200,000 shells left. That might be enough to bombard another Ukrainian city and capture its ruins. But, Russia itself will be on the brink of a civil war.

And, even if Winnie were to openly use Russia as a blackmail to get his way elsewhere, that will only embolden the western powers into taking the gloves off. Murmurs among the Republican Party that too much aid is going to Ukraine will vanish. The Ukrainians are preparing to receive M1A tanks - just a token few dozen for now, but the US can easily send hundreds it has in storage. F-16s are also coming, sooner or later. After that, it won't even be funny. One of the events in the period between 1989-91 that shocked the CCP was the Gulf War: Iraq's army was very similar to China's army in terms of equipment and training, and to see it annihilated within days was deeply shocking in Beijing.

You repeat the same esoteric. To use the word shock in this context is ridiculous. The collapse of the USSR was a consequence of the fact that for decades the spring of nationalism of the Soviet peoples was held back, especially nationalism was overripe among Russians and Ukrainians. Now both the Chinese state and the Russian state are nationalist, they are in complete harmony with the nationalism of their main ethnic groups, and a tiny number of real liberals are excluded by all means from influencing politics. Absolutely nothing threatens either Vinnie's regime or Piglet's regime. This field has been cleared.

Second, I don't see why China might not want to supply the Russian army, because China has been supplying the Russian army for a long time, both itself and through its satellites. The West turns a blind eye to this, because the Western and not only the Western economy is tightly tied to China.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Is there even popular support within Russia for this invasion/annexation anymore?

That part of the youth that grew up in world culture is against this war, but has no way to influence the bunker tsar and therefore keeps their mouths shut. The thinking of the rest of the categories of the population has been completely destroyed by the special military propaganda of the Russian and Soviet media, and therefore they support absolutely any step of Putin.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Looks like these three guys are too lazy to think outside the методичка. Now they have a методичка about oil and they don't deviate from it at all, no matter what others say at this thread.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Russia has too many nuclear warheads for NATO to try to attack it in a non-Eurocentric way.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

You repeat the same esoteric. To use the word shock in this context is ridiculous. The collapse of the USSR was a consequence of the fact that for decades the spring of nationalism of the Soviet peoples was held back, especially nationalism was overripe among Russians and Ukrainians. Now both the Chinese state and the Russian state are nationalist, they are in complete harmony with the nationalism of their main ethnic groups, and a tiny number of real liberals are excluded by all means from influencing politics. Absolutely nothing threatens either Vinnie's regime or Piglet's regime. This field has been cleared.

Yes, it was ultimately nationalism that destroyed the Soviet Union. But, that was made possible because the Party's rank and file no longer felt that listening to the Kremlin served their interests. They then found another potential source of power in the form of local nationalism. Nationalism was the symptom, not the cause, of the Soviet Union's collapse.

As for China, Xi Jinping himself has repeatedly warned that the Party could very quickly fall apart due to a lack of internal cohesion. His speech about his theory on why the Soviet Union feel apart, which I previously mentioned, says it all:

https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2013/01/leaked-speech-shows-xi-jinpings-opposition-to-reform/

The most striking part of Xi Jinping’s “new southern tour speech” is his revisiting the topic of the Soviet Union’s collapse. He said, “Why did the Soviet Union disintegrate? Why did the Soviet Communist Party collapse? An important reason was that their ideals and beliefs had been shaken. In the end, ‘the ruler’s flag over the city tower’ changed overnight. It’s a profound lesson for us! To dismiss the history of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Communist Party, to dismiss Lenin and Stalin, and to dismiss everything else is to engage in historic nihilism, and it confuses our thoughts and undermines the Party’s organizations on all levels.”

“Why must we stand firm on the Party’s leadership over the military?” Xi continued, “because that’s the lesson from the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the Soviet Union where the military was depoliticized, separated from the Party and nationalized, the party was disarmed. A few people tried to save the Soviet Union; they seized Gorbachev, but within days it was turned around again, because they didn’t have the instruments to exert power. Yeltsin gave a speech standing on a tank, but the military made no response, keeping so-called ‘neutrality.’ Finally, Gorbachev announced the disbandment of the Soviet Communist Party in a blithe statement. A big Party was gone just like that. Proportionally, the Soviet Communist Party had more members than we do, but nobody was man enough to stand up and resist.”

Here's a more recent take, that more explicitly makes my comparison:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Xi-s-Gorbachev-obsession-put-China-on-a-Soviet-path

As for how the CCP could fall apart, it won't be the exact same way as the Soviet Union, where local Party use nationalism to dismantle the Party's structures. Deng Xiaoping had hoped to create a tacit agreement where market reformists and statists would take turns leading the Party every ten years. Before his death, he even declared that Hu Jintao (the one who was led away at the last Party Congress) would serve as General Secretary between 2002-2012, and that the Party would be able to select Hu's successor in a structured process.

But, by the late 2000s, ideological factions were increasingly openly sniping at each other, and that could very well have led to a split in the Party. It was in this context that Winnie came in, promising to recreate the Party's cohesion, and hence his speech on his theory on why the Soviet Union fell apart.

That also explains why the CCP chose to crack down in Hong Kong: internal documents revealed that they were aware of the Baltic republics, which, despite being the wealthiest and westernized parts of the USSR, were also the most resentful of Moscow and the first domino to fall. Hence, they viewed Hong Kong as a threat to the CCP's rule over all of China, and therefore a crackdown was the most logical option.

They also extensively studied the KMT in Taiwan, and the PRI in Mexico: two other long-time one-party dictatorships that fell apart. In both these cases, they concluded not inaccurately that a lack of cohesion within the ruling party made the party elites question whether they should continue supporting the system.

Hence, they are acutely aware of the risk to regime stability, and it is their #1, #2, and #3 priority. Everything else is subordinate to that, and the impression that the Party's rule is rock-solid forever is the product of their own propaganda. Winnie is secure for now, but I dare say that before you know it, sniping among the Party elites will become more and more difficult to ignore.

I'm sure you are right. I can only judge about Russia and my native Kazakhstan, I have never been interested in China. I will only note that every empire that collapsed from the 18th century to the 20th, whether as a result of the American Revolution or the Xinhai Revolution, collapsed because of the nationalist thought immanent in this historical era. After two successful Russian revolutions, the cunning Lenin took power from under the noses of the Black Hundreds by declaring this usurpation, which was not at all a revolution, the only true Revolution, in the spirit of Hegelian doublethink. The Bolsheviks suppressed nationalism with varying success until nationalism sprouted naturally within the CPSU, KGB and GRU, mainly through the unofficial Russian Party and the Dnepropetrovsk clan. Real communist internationalists like Gorbachev were left without support, Yeltsin and Kravchuk took all power from Gorbachev without the slightest resistance.

If I understand you correctly, the CCP is clearing out the models of moderate Chinese nationalism in order to leave only its model of ultra-nationalism. This is very disturbing, because I could only bet on alternative nationalism, speaking of the collapse of the PRC.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Winnie has made it clear that he doesn't view the economy (as in, rising living standards) as his priority. But, that doesn't mean that he's eager to turn China into West Korea right now, because even he's aware that's not doable in the short term. His administration still needs to at least pay lip service to welcoming private investment, because China's domestic consumption and export sectors are currently in serious trouble, which has immediate consequences for weiwen ("preserving stability").

The sudden loss of eight digits of export sector jobs would be beyond the ability of even the CCP's mobilization abilities to manage. Conscripting more than a fraction of them into the army would be useless in any hypothetical war against Taiwan, unless the plan is to use their bodies as land fill. Mobilizing them into military industries would immediately put the Western powers on alert.

Then there are the tech sanctions. China's semiconductor sector is already a decade behind global standards, and that's after spending hundreds of billions trying to bridge the gap. Tighter sanctions still will widen that gap further, and sanctions in other advanced technologies would achieve similar results.

Putting these two together, China would be grappling with mass unemployment (though over time, this could still be alleviated by replacing capital with labour) and an increasingly disappointed Party elite, with a numerically massive army that is technologically inferior to its adversaries.

So Winnie is stuck in a quandary where he wants to prioritize his regime's stability over the economy, but the economy is - in the long term - what gives his regime its stability.

And what does all this have to do with Russia? Well, if Putin's regime becomes increasingly dependent on support from Beijing, then a stagnating Chinese economy will find it increasingly difficult to support Putin even when doing so becomes more and more important for its own regime stability. That's exactly what doomed the Soviet Union into stagnation, which paved the way for its collapse.

Piglet has been talking for twenty years about preserving stability, "well-fed decade" and "but we have peace." And washed away his entire agenda one February morning. When dealing with extremist leaders, pay attention to their deeds and ignore their words.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.ft.com/content/c37ed22d-e0e4-4b03-972e-c56af8a36d2e

"US opposes offering Ukraine a road map to Nato membership"

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1644005765705785346?s=20

It's not a one-way relationship.

Look at what Ukraine has to offer to NATO: hundreds of thousands of experienced troops who are already familiar with NATO equipment.

Those don't just come out of nowhere.

And most importantly Ukrainians have studied the tactics of Russian troops from A to Z.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Russia is stealing Ukrainan Art and Cultural artifacts at a scale not seen since the Nazis were invading,

...and paintings by one of Ukraine’s most beloved artists, Maria Prymachenko, whose work was hailed by Pablo Picasso as an “artistic miracle.”

I guess they considered this picture another "discredit of the Russian army": May That Nuclear War Be Cursed!

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Russia embracing it's Soviet past on occupied territories.

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1646198316688982026

So....do conservatives actually believe this is a good thing? Like today the modern right actually wants to celebrate the Soviet Union's historical legacy?

XXI century alignments have nothing to do with XX century ones because the world changed. I never understand why people cannot let go of cold war days and accept they are over, in the past. The narrative of XXI century so far is China and the rise of multipolarity order.

In the world of today, social issues have gained a much bigger predominance in the public debate, for instance. And that makes a lot of difference.

As an economic leftist and progressive nationalist, sometimes I have way bigger disagreements with the liberal sector of the left than with some nationalist conservatives for example.

People get confused as hell with communists and the far-right aligning on some matters these days but forget that both are side by side on the top half of the political compass.

XX century logic: left-right on political compass
XXI century logic: auth-lib on political compass

Which is how liblefts became popular with the mainstream, they’re mixed with a bunch of neolibs. No wonder media loves the hell out of them.

Far left-wing socialists/communists who are also far right-wing nationalists are not something super-new and super-mysterious, they are old ordinary National Socialists, abbreviated as Nazis.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I have previously posted various articles regarding the Partisan Movement and activities within Russia on multiple occasions.

This Newsweek story does not require a paywall, but breaks down some of the various political-military formations involved in Anti-Kremlin militant activism.

Tons more info on the original links, but it is becoming increasingly clear that Russian Anti-War Militants appear to be becoming increasingly active as of of the links shut down when it comes to legitimate protest, and now the next step is to active resistance.

Naturally the obvious question is what might Russia look like if the regime falls at some point, but it is already clear that repression of alternative voices might start to look increasingly shaky, especially with the Russian "Milbloggers" effectively exposing the fact that the "Emperor Has No Clothes".

*** NO PAYWALL REQUIRED- LINK AT BOTTOM OF POST ***

While relatively little is known about these rebel outfits complicit in activities considered terroristic by Moscow, Newsweek spoke with experts who have done extensive research into the groups and representatives of the militias themselves to provide new insights into the aims and tactics of four key insurgent organizations as well as their potential links to foreign governments such as Ukraine.

Webber noted that beyond their shared opposition to Putin and his policies, the groups are widely diverse ideologically, ranging from far-left anarcho-communists to ultra-right neo-fascists. Their tactics are similarly diverse, with some focusing on dismantling railroads while others claim raids from Ukraine into Russia and the killing of prominent supporters of the war effort.

Announced in August 2022 and led by known far-right ideologue Denis Nikitin, the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) made international headlines last month when it claimed a cross-border raid in two villages of the western Russian province of Bryansk that official Russian reports say killed two civilians and injured two others. Using a sophisticated social media presence, the RVC published videos from within Russian territory to back up its claims of responsibility.

The National Republican Army (NRA) also rose to prominence in August 2022 after exiled Russian parliamentarian Ilya Ponomarev claimed the group was behind the assassination of pro-war Russian journalist Darya Dugina, daughter of right-wing philosopher Alexander Dugin, outside of Moscow. Ponomarev claimed to have direct ties to the group, and said the NRA was additionally behind a series of arsons against military sites prior to Dugina's slaying.

The founding of the far-left Combat Organization of Anarcho-Communists (commonly known by its Russian acronym, BOAK) actually preceded the war in Ukraine, with its official blog in existence since at least September 2020, while affiliated channels date back to 2018 and other evidence of the group has been seen as far back as 2016.

Out of the four major groups claiming attacks within Russia, the least is known about the one that calls itself Black Bridge.

Like the RVC and NRA, Black Bridge first garnered significant attention in August 2022 by calling for action to disrupt the internationally unrecognized referendums held by Russia to annex the Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. But its first major operation is believed to be an apparent attack last month on a Rostov-on-Don FSB office that reportedly killed four people and injured five others.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/meet-the-russian-rebel-groups-waging-war-from-within-putin-s-own-borders/ar-AA19OetP?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=56e31adf3c8d4c4f80bfcb24bf1306a2&ei=43

I just don’t understand what the ideological differences are between the Black Hundreds rebels and the same Black Hundred government with its Black Hundred oprichnina represented by the Girkinites, Barkashovites, Limonovites, the Federal Protective Service "Wagner", the FSB-GRU-SVR and myriads of Black Hundreds propagandists in the person of that Dugin, or Prokhanov, or Kvachkov with Kalashnikov, and so on. The combination of ultra-left populism with ultra-right hatred on social and national grounds is the same idea that unites them.

Very suspicious rebels. I hope they do not turn out to be the same scarecrow that the Russian special services built in the early 2000s to discredit the Chechen rebels.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Freedom and democracy are a property of people, it belongs to them, it’s not something owned by any State.

No one around the world outside your borders and even increasingly less people in the inside, buy the police-State narrative that USA has to or should control whatever goes on with the political systems from other countries. You can promote democracy but not enforce it, simply because it will not work or sustain itself if it isn’t collectively conquered by the people themselves.

That’s why you’re collapsing right now. You tried doing too much everywhere while ignoring the needs and well-being of your own people, who are not even given basic healthcare like people in every other place, while giving out Hundreds of Billions to one single foreign place just to get involved in a new war after leaving the Middle East.

Trump was someone with a more offensive language and his isolationism might’ve been exaggerated, but he respected people and countries much more precisely because he didn’t act like he or his country were better or “more moral” than anyone like you hear from democratic leaders propaganda. He was honest about realist realpolitik and wanting to look out for his nation interests first instead of pushing this “spread freedom around” bullsh**t that no one really believes is true these days when we just look at US own recent track record lol

If the US under the democrats is much moral and superior than anyone outside your US/Europe comfort bubble, then you shouldn’t want to make deals and expect the alliance from these immoral non-white majority places you obviously find disgusting and willing to join “axis of evil”. In that case, if we all unite to economically isolate the US and drop the dollar, then it should be welcoming development from you that more “evil” places are getting distant from you so that you can reinforce your alignment with “good” European ones that never did anything wrong in the world.

I still defend cooperating with US under important social issues like pushing for environment protection; LGBT rights; promotion of democracy (which is not enforcement btw); but it’s evident that economically, it’s impossible to push for an alignment with someone delusional who thinks (more like, actively pretends) they’re better than everyone and more moral on literally everything. It just proves the point that just like the Dollar is being politically used to “punish” Russia, the same lack of respect can be easily applied into literally anyone else.

An excellent example of turning everything inside out propaganda. It deserves to be in the school books.

Per se you're saying something like, "You damned adequate people, get off with your promotion of adequacy! There are a lot of millions of people like Charles Manson, and we'll isolate you, we'll lock you up in a mental hospital, you damned adequate people, when we unite!"

Your speech could have been taken seriously before the Russian attack on Georgia, and certainly not to be taken seriously when the Russians carry out ISIS-style public executions and Putin's best friend talks about the corpses of foreign journalists in his garden.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Incorrect. I am saying that the moral standards applied by Western states are hypocritical and one-sided in order to benefit white-majority nations.

As a citizen of Kazakhstan, a country with a non-white majority, I would not want a country with a white majority, Russia, to destroy my city by 80-90%, as it does in Ukraine, to the sound of Putin's idiotic mantras that Russia is fighting against gays, Nazis and Satanists.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Either claim makes absolutely no sense though, even if hypothetical, as both are friends/brother nations with good relations, like say the US/UK are between themselves. We like to annoy each other and fight online for fun/distraction but we really love the other.

Exactly the same relationship existed between Russians and Ukrainians until Putin began to actively interfere in Ukrainian affairs and conduct dehumanizing propaganda against Ukrainians.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Is she a double agent?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Winnie and his daddy aren't entirely comparable, but I won't really be surprised if the daddy performs a similar U-turn on Ukraine. Ukraine has always been our brotherly nation, and Crimea has always been a part of Ukraine, and the Special Military Operation can be called off now that it has successfully eliminated all the secret gay Nazi bases in Ukraine.

Yes, Piglet could well have said so if he had not been the dumbest of the post-Soviet rulers in everything that does not concern his money and his personal safety.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

And it’s clear by the way morals are adaptable in the West, that they see as part of their interest the subjugation of the third world as a means of keeping their global dominance through the white fear of the “other”. Which is how Europe gets to be pushed as this unquestioned place of alliance while the non-white world is seen with suspicion, condescension and through an inhumane lens of “ moral higher ground”.

Because it’s better to build a wall between Russia/Europe and then drive Europe into more dependence of a “reliable” partner like US, guaranteeing American hold over Europe. I get why it’s interesting from a realist American POV and I don’t judge it. I would only question to US government if it’s really that worth it to get more control and hold over Europe while completely alienating practically almost everyone outside that continent through the unapologetic politicization of their currency. I don’t think it’s smart to bet so hard in the maintainability of “Western US-EU order” just because it’s comfort known zone they are used to when demographic and economic trends shows that the future is in the South.

The eclecticism of broken thinking, characteristic of far-right populists. Russia is a white country and a really northern country, in vain you position it as a non-white flagship of the South. Also you manage to present the EU as a colonial possession of the US and at the same time present the EU as the conqueror of the world.

This is propaganda nonsense in the style of Dugin's Eurasians, ruscism for export.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I wonder, what attitude does President Yoon have towards Russia anyways?

In any case, he should treat Russia the same way as the DPRK, since Putin's Russia is as much a puppet of China as the DPRK.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

You are both right, but you look at it from different points of view. From the perspective of the Chinese government, per capita GDP and the well-being of citizens are completely irrelevant. This is the government that once starved to death up to 45 million of its citizens as a result of the idiotic sparrow extermination, that is, twice as many as the Japanese killed the Chinese in World War II, even considering the Nanjing Massacre, but still the Chinese government does not allow the thought  about its fault. What matters to the Chinese government is overall GDP, how many tanks and missiles they can produce, and China's GDP has always been colossal. Even in the Middle Ages, China's GDP was a quarter of the world's GDP.