Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657893033256402945?s=20

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657895197655678977?s=20

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657897556129587202?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Holy sh*t

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657893033256402945?s=20

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657895197655678977?s=20

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657897556129587202?s=20

Is Prigozhin an Ukrainian intelligence asset?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657893033256402945?s=20

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657895197655678977?s=20

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657897556129587202?s=20

Is Prigozhin an Ukrainian intelligence asset?

Evidently Prigozhin wanted a trade:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1657892810312372225?s=20

[lfromnj]

I wonder if the Moscow drone was Wagner.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/timinhonolulu/status/1657945704994836480?s=12
https://twitter.com/timinhonolulu/status/1657945707654037506?s=12

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿

[The Mikado]

A. I think this is 90% chance of BS re: Prigozhin.
B. That said, at this point Prigozhin's best case scenario probably involves him surrendering, getting turned over to The Hague for a war crimes trial, and getting a relatively cushy life sentence in an ICC prison in the Netherlands where he'll be a hard target for Putin to get ahold of. Given that ICC trials take close to a decade, Prigozhin might well spend the rest of his life as an "alleged war criminal" and die before ever reaching trial.

B may sound sucky, but ICC captivity is actually nowhere near as bad as what you usually think of as "life sentence in prison."

Look at this!

The ICC currently has twelve detention cells in a Dutch prison in Scheveningen, The Hague.[3] Suspects held by the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals are held in the same prison and share some facilities, like the fitness room, but have no contact with suspects held by the ICC.[3]

The ICC registrar is responsible for managing the detention centre.[4] The rules governing detainment are contained in Chapter 6 of the Regulations of the Court[4] and Chapter 5 of the Regulations of the Registry.[5] The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has unrestricted access to the detention centre.[6]

Facilities
Each individual has their own toilet and washing area.[7] Each has access to a small gym and is offered training with a physical education instructor.[7]

Detainees are provided with meals, but they may also cook for themselves, purchase food from the prison shop, and have ingredients ordered in.[2][8] However, Charles Taylor's lawyers have complained that "the food which is served is completely Eurocentric and not palatable to the African palate".[8]

Each detainee has a personal computer in their cell, on which he can view material related to their case.[2] They are offered computer training, if required,[2] and language courses.[7]

Detainees are allowed to communicate in private with their defense teams and diplomatic representatives of their countries of origin.[2] They are permitted visits from family members, spouses and partners, and spiritual advisors.[2]

If I'm Evgeny Prigozhin and my choices are Ukrainian POW camp, dying in battle at Bakhmut, going back to certain death in Russia, trying to somehow escape to a Wagner regiment in Mali or CAR or some other random African country, or this...I'm picking surrendering on condition I'm sent for war crimes trial at The ICC. Far and away the best option.

[NOVA Green]

Washington Post Discord Leaks involving "Putin's Chef", aka Wagner Boss.

Looks like there is a lot more regarding conflicts among the Russian military forces than has previously been published....

In late January, with his mercenary forces dying by the thousands in a fight for the ruined city of Bakhmut, Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin made Ukraine an extraordinary offer.

Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.

Two Ukrainian officials confirmed that Prigozhin has spoken several times to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, known as HUR. One official said that Prigozhin extended the offer regarding Bakhmut more than once, but that Kyiv rejected it because officials don’t trust Prigozhin and thought his proposals could have been disingenuous.

In an interview with The Washington Post this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would not confirm the contacts with Prigozhin. “This is a matter of [military] intelligence,” he said. The Ukrainian leader also objected to airing classified information publicly and said he believed that the leaks had benefited Russia.

Other leaked documents reveal Russian Defense Ministry officials privately wondering how to respond to Prigozhin’s criticism of the military’s performance and his demands for more resources, which they apparently conceded were not illegitimate grievances. The documents also speak to a power struggle between Prigozhin and top officials, including Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Against that tense backdrop, Prigohzin has carried on a secret relationship with Ukrainian intelligence that, in addition to phone calls, includes in-person meetings with HUR officers in an unspecified country in Africa, one document states. Wagner forces provide security to several governments on the continent.

According to one document, Prigozhin told a Ukrainian intelligence officer that the Russian military was struggling with ammunition supplies. He advised Ukrainian forces to push forward with an assault on the border of Crimea, which Russia has illegally annexed, while Russian troop morale was low. The report also referred to other intelligence noting that Prigozhin was aware of plummeting morale among Wagner forces and that some of his fighters had balked at orders to deploy in the Bakhmut area under heavy fire, for fear of suffering more casualties.

One document, based on “sigint” — or intercepted communications — states that Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, “expected the Russians to use details of Prigozhin’s secret talks with the HUR and his meetings with their officers in Africa to make him appear to be a Ukrainian agent.” It doesn’t specify whether Budanov suspects Moscow may already know that Prigozhin is talking to HUR officers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1657435618325024770?s=12

Girkin, Kvachkov, Kalashnikov, Limonov, Barkashov and other Osipovites always spoke in the same spirit. For example, in his non-forbidden book, Kvachkov, a friend of Girkin, called Putin a rooster, which means a member of the lower prison caste — a passive homosexual who is constantly raped.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Prigozhin already is an Atlas poster:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=18362

Prigozhin is not so pro-Kremlin, like him

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Prigozhin already is an Atlas poster:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=18362

Prigozhin is not so pro-Kremlin, like him

Speaking of which, I'm thinking of doing a poll on how long it will be until he trips and falls out of a ten-story window.

[Woody]

"Ukraine is winning". Meanwhile it's still losing it's positions in the city. Russia regaining some lost settlements in Kharkiv region.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1658078068093624320?cxt=HHwWgICxqfrN1oIuA...

[Virginiá]

France commits more armored vehicles, UK commits "hundreds" of air defense missiles and long range attack drones (200km+)

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1658004032592674816

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/uk-to-provide-ukraine-with-long-range-kamikaze-drones/

The British government made the announcement on Monday, May 15, after the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Great Britain for talks with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Reuters writes.

“The Prime Minister would on Monday confirm the provision of hundreds of air defence missiles and further unmanned aerial systems including hundreds of new long-range attack drones with a range of over 200 kilometres,” the statement said.

[Sir Mohamed]

I wouldn't believe anything that comes from Priogozhin. He's one of Putin's men and his public feud with the Russian Defense Ministry just seems theatre to me.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So apparently Russia’s strategy is to keep pushing through Bakmut itself while letting Ukraine attack the flanks. Yeah I don’t see how that could go bad

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So apparently Russia’s strategy is to keep pushing through Bakmut itself while letting Ukraine attack the flanks. Yeah I don’t see how that could go bad

Depends how far each side gets and how quickly, but the Wagner guys in the city probably aren't that concerned. As long as they capture Bakhmut, they're getting paid. Who cares if the Russian army loses it later?

[The Mikado]

So apparently Russia’s strategy is to keep pushing through Bakmut itself while letting Ukraine attack the flanks. Yeah I don’t see how that could go bad

Depends how far each side gets and how quickly, but the Wagner guys in the city probably aren't that concerned. As long as they capture Bakhmut, they're getting paid. Who cares if the Russian army loses it later?

Pushing forwards while the enemy's flanking you on both sides always works fine. Unrelated image:

[Stranger in a strange land]

Prigozhin already is an Atlas poster:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=18362

Prigozhin is not so pro-Kremlin, like him

Speaking of which, I'm thinking of doing a poll on how long it will be until he trips and falls out of a ten-story window.

Wagner is widely suspected of being a tool of the GRU, the people who make people fall out of windows. The fact that Prigozhin hasn't fallen out of a window yet is a VERY bad sign for Putin.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1658149354799022080

I should caveat - he sounds rough, and does appear to be wearing pretty heavy makeup.

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1658149354799022080

I should caveat - he sounds rough, and does appear to be wearing pretty heavy makeup.

It's so 2023 when I'm asking myself whether this is not a deep fake.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Band of Vatniks

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1658183213150265373

This is a (rare) fake. Look at the upper left side of the road where the explosion is edited in. Just before and during/after the explosion, you can see the shape of the tracks in the road changes - and then, after the explosion, it changes back. The explosion effect has been superimposed.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1658134391330316288?s=20

[Storr]

The CIS was created after the passage of the Ukrainian Declaration of Independence in 1991, indicating the USSR as it existed would soon collapse, as some kind of European Community (now EU) like organization.  It was supposed to promote economic and political cooperation, though what different members saw it as varied. Russia saw it as a way to keep influence and control over the newly independent Republics.

The three Baltic states never bothered joining. Georgia left in 2008. Ukraine left in 2018, but had stopped participating years earlier. Moldova suspended its participation in November and is now fully leaving. Whatever Putin's goals in starting the full-on invasion of Ukraine were, Russia's "sphere of influence" continues to shrink and weaken.

https://twitter.com/Igor_Grosu_md/status/1658000607574106112?s=20

[Virginiá]

The end of Ukraine aid is rapidly approaching. Reupping it won’t be easy

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/15/ukraine-aid-is-drying-up-and-the-white-house-is-under-pressure-to-send-more-00096767

The $48 billion Ukraine aid package that Congress approved in December has about $6 billion left, meaning U.S. funding for weapons and supplies could dry up by midsummer.

That’s raising fresh concerns among lawmakers about what the White House is planning next, including when the administration will ask for another major package and whether it will be enough.

[...]

The White House is discussing a new package, and it will be timed to keep support for Ukraine flowing, said a senior administration official who was granted anonymity to speak ahead of an official announcement.

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said he’d been told recently during a briefing with administration officials they would have sufficient funds for Ukraine for the next several months, therefore that the appropriations process — or an emergency supplemental funding bill around then — would likely be the next time Congress doled out more funds.

“We’re OK for the next several months,” he said in an interview.

“If I had to guess, probably September,” House Foreign Affairs Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said. “The counteroffensive that’s gonna be waged in the next several days will have a major impact.”

I feel there is a fair chance more aid is passed without much drama, but then again, who knows. I still think Democrats should have passed much more than they did last December, particularly given that the Biden admin likely already settled on sending a lot of expensive systems to Ukraine in December that rapidly drained newly available money.