Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[lfromnj]

Anyone who spent the last month lecturing us that the invasion was CIA propaganda and a nothing burger needs to apologize.

Never really lectured but I was skeptical of our intelligence agencies after the Russian bounties stuff in Afghanistan.

[lfromnj]

A thought I had at work: forget sanctions, how about a full embargo on trade with Russia?                  I know Europe won't entertain this idea in the slightest. But when it comes to the US, Russia's imports from the US are around 5% of total imports. Meanwhile the US has less than 1% of its imports come from the motherland. An American embargo on Russia would be easy for the US to weather, not so much for Russia.

The US could theoretically get by without much struggle as a whole. However our allies won't be happy depending on how it happens. Along with that Joe Biden can not handle 4 dollar + gas .

[lfromnj]

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

If you were truly aware of the geography you might note that in between Kiev and the border is the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and I'm not sure if the Ukrainian government or military would have been particularly keen to dig in and create trenches, redoubts and strong-points there for certain fairly obvious reasons. They could perhaps have done more further south, but the open geography would immediately make that difficult - there's not much point in creating strong defences that are easy simply wheel around and bypass.

In general, of course, you are not being honest here and I suspect there is little point in further engagement.

Clearly that was another flaw with the Ukrainian defense plan, just like France in 1940 with the Ardenne, they planned their defenses around an "impassable" natural barrier that wasn't actually impassable. But first, this was not a surprise attack and the Ukrainians should have been digging trenches and otherwise building fortifications to blunt the expected attack from Belarus. They do have entrenchments in place in Luhansk and Donetsk and thus the attacks from the DPR and LPR have not gotten very far. Second, the "trading space for time" and "bleed the enemy" strategy you refer to implies Kiev needs to be given up and needed to be combined with an evacuation of the capital and Zelensky to Lvov. But Zelensky chose to stay in Kiev, which is good to keep Ukrainian morale high, but it had to be combined with an all-out defense of Kiev or else the result is what we see now; Zelensky is threatened directly within 2 days and is forced to ask for an armistice.

Its not impassable to go through Chernobyls radiation zone. It is however harder to set up a dug in defense in the region

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

Doesn't she support BDS ?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1497345604816711681?s=20&t=g4bgYhgxLsexV...

Ghost of Kiev.

[lfromnj]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

I want you to know you are a bad person.

I'm sure his views on this conflict are bad but he's also probably being realistic. I highly doubt Ukraine actually shot down that paratrooper plane . There does seem to be a lot of propaganda out there(not using it in a negative fashion)

[lfromnj]

 I thought it was twitter propaganda but wow this seems to be going into Winter war 2.0 which would be impressive considering Ukraines terrain is much worse to defend than Finland.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1497264543428448260?cxt=HHwWiMC43euKrc...

You forgot your favorite thing BRTD. Very dissapointed.

[lfromnj]

I thought it was twitter propaganda but wow this seems to be going into Winter war 2.0 which would be impressive considering Ukraines terrain is much worse to defend than Finland.

Yeah, but on the flip side, the Finnish didnt really have world class MANPADs & AT equipment.

Countries like Iraq had them as well, but the Ukranians are also better trained, more disciplined & far more motivated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_support_of_Finland_in_the_Winter_War#France_and_United_Kingdom

Maybe not world class but Finland recieved a decent amount of support.

[lfromnj]

You have to give credit to the leader sticking about with the situation deteriorating so quickly.

I just don't see how Ukraine is going to hold out in the long run however. Reminds me of the German invasion of Poland in 1939; Russians have points of attack at 3 different fronts with overwhelming superiority in numbers. Only difference being that the Ukrainians are (if we are to believe all reports) inflicting more casualties on the Russians than vice versa, but Russia probably does not care how many losses they have to take.

The Poles did have a fall back plan to the SE corridor but it completely fell apart due to the Soviet invasion . A victory wasn't there but at the same time Poland wouldn't have fallen within 1 month. It's really important to realize how crippling Poland's defense was especially to the Luftwaffe which lost a large percentage of its aircraft. France's fall was embarrassing beyond any proportion but the Polish defense was workable considering the circumstances.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497461221527891969

[lfromnj]

Watching Indian media I can tell the English language (liberal/left) media is turning against Putin even as the Hindi language media are still in the neutral camp.  It will not surprise me if Modi is now getting pressure to take a more pro-Ukraine stance.

What about arnab goswami

[lfromnj]

Would it be legal for an American to go to Ukraine and fight? I heard Zelensky is providing arms to those who go to Ukraine to fight, I just want to know legality.

U.S. , 163 U.S. 632 (1896), the Supreme Court endorsed a lower court ruling that it was not a crime under U.S. law for an individual to go abroad for the purpose of enlisting in a foreign army

Thank you! I’ll spend Spring Break (week after this) with my mother and discuss this, in the mean time I can probably plan travel for a city in Poland and then take transit to get to the border, but I have time to plan.

Do note, however, that if one accepts a promotion to serve as an officer in a foreign military, then they'll have implicitly consented to a relinquishing of their American citizenship, which the Court ruled in Afroyim v. Rusk (1967) as constituting legitimate constitutional grounds to involuntarily strip an American citizen of their citizenship under the 14th Amendment.

ALSO note: I am NOT a lawyer & what I have written does NOT in any way constitute legitimate legal advice, as it's meant for purely explanatory purposes only; seriously, guy, pls don't go get yourself killed based on what a rando netizen said.

…oh yikes, I do not want to lose my citizenship in the case I somehow survive, but maybe a paramilitary wouldn’t count as a foreign military? I could always talk to legal professionals first, I want to know the full consequences of what I am doing before I go.
As for dying, yeah I don’t want to die, but we all do have to die eventually. I’d rather go out for a good cause than of old age.

Don't you have that seizure issue ?
You could be more of a liability if your medicine doesn't  get through.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/YoungLabourUK/status/1497149945123647498

Lol

[lfromnj]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that. 

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation   
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

[lfromnj]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

[lfromnj]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

I imagine that if the vote was today, those margins would be significantly closer. Ukraine, even eastern Ukraine has become significantly less pro Russia.

Of course, but a divide would still exist. The Overton window between Russia/EU has literally shifted "left" as in West but it doesn't mean the East isn't more Russia friendly. Zelensky afterall won basically everywhere but the far west.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-military-budget-russia-ukraine.html

Here's the article about German military budget increase. I remain skeptical of the 2% target by these liars piggybacking off us.I think 1.75% is actually what should be spent ideally but a target is a target and these cowards have hid behind the US for 15 years

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-military-budget-russia-ukraine.html

Here's the article about German military budget increase. I remain skeptical of the 2% target by these liars piggybacking off us.I think 1.75% is actually what should be spent ideally but a target is a target and these cowards have hid behind the US for 15 years

OK, easy now. The US military budget would not be one cent smaller if every NATO member had spent 2% of GDP. Infact, the extremely large US military budget really has no relation to NATO at all.

I agree the US Spends more for other reasons but Western Europe other than the UK has found it easy to hide behind the US . Leeches.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-military-budget-russia-ukraine.html

Here's the article about German military budget increase. I remain skeptical of the 2% target by these liars piggybacking off us.I think 1.75% is actually what should be spent ideally but a target is a target and these cowards have hid behind the US for 15 years

OK, easy now. The US military budget would not be one cent smaller if every NATO member had spent 2% of GDP. Infact, the extremely large US military budget really has no relation to NATO at all.

If Germany properly funded their military, for example, we wouldn't need a bajillion troops stationed in Germany because they'd be able to provide those troops and the equipment themselves.

This is no longer the Marshall Plan era where the US was the only major industrialized country not devastated by WWII. It is long past time for our allies to step up and contribute their fair share, and I'm glad some of them are finally realizing that.

I mean the US still keeps troops in Germany because it allows us to project power worldwide. Doesn't mean they shouldn't have been putting a bit more effort rather than doing training with Broomsticks.

[lfromnj]

Relax guys. Nobody is going to nuclear war. Even if Putin himself is crazy enough to do so, he's never going to be able to get past his advisors, the military, the oligarchs, or anyone else who doesn't want to Russia to be nuked right back.

Would that even happen if Russia deployed a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? I'm not convinced it would. It would significantly escalate the international response, but everyone else with nukes is going to be real hesitant to engage a belligerent hostile power with the most active nuclear weapon stockpile on the planet, knowing what would happen if they did.

Relevent

[lfromnj]

Lol at Ukraine casualties claim of a 1:20 ratio

[lfromnj]

Lol at Ukraine casualties claim of a 1:20 ratio

It's not all that farfetched given how cartoonishly disorganized the Russian military and leadership has been. I hope they are fully repelled and thoroughly embarrassed.

I don't know how the advances still seem there. Ukranians have to be giving up a lot of important strategic ground while still inflicting so many casualties. I don't believe anything close to 20:1 is happening.

[lfromnj]

I believe Eritrea also supported the 2003 Iraq invasion.

Eritrea has a history of invading its neighbours.

Honestly atleast they aren't hypocritical.

[lfromnj]

Honesfly I'm sick of the low quality rebuttals to compucomp. He is correct in that it is likely the majority of China and India support Russia . China isn't really a free Democracy but at the same time I think most Chinese people do support their government. India is as much of a Democracy as Ukraine at the very least.