Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[dead0man]

if the people making the military decisions think it's will end the war quicker to strike inside or occupy parts of Russia, then Ukraine should do that.  Western politicians acknowledge that one of the reason autocratic societies tend to do worse at war than liberal democracies is due to leadership meddling in war, but it has never once actually stopped them from attempting the same thing.

[NOVA Green]

Phillips on Ukrainian Counter-attacks around Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1657447648402501634?s=20

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1657438835419086848?s=20

Also, looks like the UK long range missiles showed up sooner rather than later...

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1657328141218598912?s=20

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1657353658412027904

One must certainly wonder to what extent this was Russia attempting to "flex" their overwhelming air superiority and getting shot down by UKR air defense systems and to what extent it was "friendly fire" from the Russian side.

One comment on the latter, is that technology exists to jam and confuse enemy ground defense systems, so hypothetically it could be that Russian shot down their own aircraft as a result of UKR cyber war capabilities.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

The mods are vile cowards! Raving hotcake cowards! They don't care about the rights of posters, they aren't even willing to care about activity on the forum! They are total scumhead scumbag cowards! There's even a moderator with Polack sympathies! Ban me, Virginia, you despotic Tsarina of this forum, if you please, because now everyone has heard the truth! I will return soon enough!

-Prigozhin, if he was an Atlas poster

Prigozhin already is an Atlas poster:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=18362

[lfromnj]

https://thewarhorse.org/special-forces-soldiers-reveal-first-details-of-battle-with-russian-mercenaries-in-syria/

The Wagner mercenaries had a surface-to-air system that made it impossible for American aircraft to press the attack. Only after officials in Washington talked to their Russian counterparts did the surface-to-air system get shut down, allowing American aircraft to return and attack.

Interesting quote about a 2018 battle!

[The Mikado]

if the people making the military decisions think it's will end the war quicker to strike inside or occupy parts of Russia, then Ukraine should do that.  Western politicians acknowledge that one of the reason autocratic societies tend to do worse at war than liberal democracies is due to leadership meddling in war, but it has never once actually stopped them from attempting the same thing.

I wrote this half a year ago and stand by both parts of it:

Annexing territory is insane, but Ukraine occupying Russian soil to force Russia to the negotiating table quicker would be something I think wouldn't be wrong. Maybe ill-advised, impractical, and unlikely to work, but not "wrong." If Ukrainians thought occupying Belgorod or Voronezh would compel a Russian surrender and war end quicker in return for getting them back, that'd be fair game. That said, I don't think Ukraine is anywhere near in a position to do that.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1657353658412027904

One must certainly wonder to what extent this was Russia attempting to "flex" their overwhelming air superiority and getting shot down by UKR air defense systems and to what extent it was "friendly fire" from the Russian side.https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1657624773180915713?s=20

One comment on the latter, is that technology exists to jam and confuse enemy ground defense systems, so hypothetically it could be that Russian shot down their own aircraft as a result of UKR cyber war capabilities.

Rob Lee just posted an interesting theory on this, with MANPADS as the probable cause, and likely based within Russia...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1657624773180915713?s=20

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

https://thewarhorse.org/special-forces-soldiers-reveal-first-details-of-battle-with-russian-mercenaries-in-syria/

The Wagner mercenaries had a surface-to-air system that made it impossible for American aircraft to press the attack. Only after officials in Washington talked to their Russian counterparts did the surface-to-air system get shut down, allowing American aircraft to return and attack.

Interesting quote about a 2018 battle!

One wonders how much we had to talk to the Russians to get things done in Syria. Probably a lot.

[You are responsible]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1657291450831237120


https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1657277344912900098

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1657646420319510530

[Woody]

Alright, I am back. So what happened to the supposedly collapsing Russian flanks around Bakhmut and it's incoming doom as was predicted by the prior 50+ tweets?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1657675029813796866?s=12
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1657704508003082240?s=12
Well well well how the turntables have turned

[Storr]

Alright, I am back. So what happened to the supposedly collapsing Russian flanks around Bakhmut and it's incoming doom as was predicted by the prior 50+ tweets?

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1657724758455189504?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1657724476069429250?s=20

[Storr]

Evidently Ukraine cannot have any elections as long as martial law is in place:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1657733973768806402?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Evidently Ukraine cannot have any elections as long as martial law is in place:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1657733973768806402?s=20

I can already smell the tankies using this to argue Zelensky is a dictator but he’s right that most countries don’t have elections during martial law not to mention the fact with the fact Russia openly targeting civilians that having election centers across the country with people waiting on line is a security risk

[Woody]

Alright, I am back. So what happened to the supposedly collapsing Russian flanks around Bakhmut and it's incoming doom as was predicted by the prior 50+ tweets?

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1657724758455189504?s=20
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1657724476069429250?s=20

Empty fields that have been grey zones for weeks. No settlements taken, nor any major breakthroughs that endanger the Russians in the city itself.

Only little breathing room for when the AFU wants to retreat from the little 5% they have in Bakhmut.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1657746069369810946?s=12
Wish there were more details but Noel is a pretty good source 😗

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1657746069369810946?s=12
Wish there were more details but Noel is a pretty good source 😗

Here we go
https://twitter.com/tvtoront/status/1657768290335203330?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1657771861609000961?s=12

[The Mikado]

Evidently Ukraine cannot have any elections as long as martial law is in place:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1657733973768806402?s=20

I can already smell the tankies using this to argue Zelensky is a dictator but he’s right that most countries don’t have elections during martial law not to mention the fact with the fact Russia openly targeting civilians that having election centers across the country with people waiting on line is a security risk

Better than them complaining about actually HOLDING elections when all of the most historically (I'd suspect not currently, for obvious reasons) pro-opposition parts of Ukraine are under enemy occupation and wouldn't be voting.

[Woody]

Bradley Jarema, 20 year old from Okemos, Michigan. Killed Wednesday during a "volunteer search and rescue mission" in Ukraine.

"Bradley Jarema; 2020 OHS graduate, humanitarian, and hero," the statement from the Okemos Public Monterrosi at Central read.

Former Okemos High School football head coach Mike Krumm said Thursday that Jarema had a kind-hearted soul and was a good teammate. He was not surprised to hear Jarema was on a volunteer humanitarian mission and called the loss a tragedy.

"He cares about other people and doing that type of work goes with what he believed in and wanted to help others," Krumm said.

Jarema graduated from Okemos High School in 2020 and played on the offensive line on the school's football team, according to Krumm. He attended Okemos schools since he was in second grade, the email said. He has a younger sister Allison who is graduating from Okemos next month.

https://lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/local/2023/05/11/okemos-man-killed-ukraine-bradley-jarema/70206846007/

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1657820649849749504?s=20

[Storr]

I wouldn't be sad if Putin's puppet kicked the bucket.

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1657780514617544707?s=20

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1657766819426336769?s=20

Don't worry, you won't have to care about defending the country when it becomes the latest "historic lands" returned to the Motherland.

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1657766824807653377?s=20

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/talkrealopinion/status/1657820536477560834
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1657410504254451718

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/status/1657810493552173056

[Storr]

Nice

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1657860890480320512?s=20