2020 New York Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kinda annoys me how they went for 0 deviation for most districts except the ones in Brooklyn/Manhattan

[ProgressiveModerate]

It'd be funny if the State Supreme Court overturned the map purely because of NY-10, that's a pretty crazy snake.

Also NY-18 was only Clinton + 1 and NY-19 was Clinton + 2

NY-01 was Clinton + 5, NY-04 was Clinton + 9, and the rest of the seats were over Clinton + 10 (including NY-11 where Clinton overperformed Biden).

While seats like NY-18 certaintly aren't a sho-in in years like 2022, they're prolly seats Dems are losing if they're having bigger issues nationally. 18 seems very much to bet on educational trends as it basically takes in some of the most affluent white parts of central NY; it swung like 7 points left in 2020. Neighboring NY-17 on teh otherhand barely budged, but is already more Dem. This seats takes in places like Spring Valley where the long term trajectory is questionable at best for Dems, especially if the Jewish communities vote for GOP by like 100% margins again.

[lfromnj]

It'd be funny if the State Supreme Court overturned the map purely because of NY-10, that's a pretty crazy snake.

Also NY-18 was only Clinton + 1 and NY-19 was Clinton + 2

NY-01 was Clinton + 5, NY-04 was Clinton + 9, and the rest of the seats were over Clinton + 10 (including NY-11 where Clinton overperformed Biden).

While seats like NY-18 certaintly aren't a sho-in in years like 2022, they're prolly seats Dems are losing if they're having bigger issues nationally. 18 seems very much to bet on educational trends as it basically takes in some of the most affluent white parts of central NY; it swung like 7 points left in 2020. Neighboring NY-17 on teh otherhand barely budged, but is already more Dem. This seats takes in places like Spring Valley where the long term trajectory is questionable at best for Dems, especially if the Jewish communities vote for GOP by like 100% margins again.

There is direct precedent for ny 10 in the current district.

[MillennialModerate]

I mean… isn’t this almost certainly overturned?

Or am I wrong

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean… isn’t this almost certainly overturned?

Or am I wrong

You’re wrong

EDIT: If this gets through the State Senate, then I give it about a 2/3 chance at worst of surviving the courts.  It will likely be due to hackery (although I disagree with Torie about hackish the map is, there's certainly no need to create an Orthodox Jewish seat and the map is less absurd than the original Republican map in Ohio.  Granted, low bar and all that; we're really just talking degrees of awful ).  That said, I'll never complain about an anti-Republican gerrymander's ugliness or brutality until national Republicans come out for a nationwide ban on gerrymandering.  It's like what Robin Williams said about having nuclear weapons: Until both have sides agree to give all of them up or it makes no sense for anyone to give any of them up.

Incidentally, Paul Tonko deserves a big shout out for being such a team player here.  Tonko and especially Morelle have strong enough ties to the New York legislature.  They could effectively draw their own districts and while Morelle only looked out for himself, Tonko clearly encouraged the legislature to unpack his district to help shore up Delgado.  Delgado is a very strong, hard-working incumbent, but he'd have been in real trouble in his old district.  

Reminds me of how IIRC McHenry lobbied NC Rs to put Asheville in his district in the 2010s redistricting to make NC-11 more R.  Even if it is in service of gerrymandering, I kinda respect folks like Tonko and McHenry for doing what they can to help out.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1487932813055823873?cxt=HHwWgsC4vd...

Basically brooklyn progressive whites and then mixed ideological minorities and lastly moderate Dems in Staten island

This is good news for Brittney Ramos Debarros

https://twitter.com/britt4congress/status/1362407321121423362?s=21

[rhg2052]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1487932813055823873?cxt=HHwWgsC4vd...

Basically brooklyn progressive whites and then mixed ideological minorities and lastly moderate Dems in Staten island

This is good news for Brittney Ramos Debarros

https://twitter.com/britt4congress/status/1362407321121423362?s=21

ENDORSED

[Oryxslayer]

Supposedly the legislative lines will be coming today. Expect the senate map to permanently lock in the D supermajority by reversing the 2010 gerrymander, and probably offer opportunities beyond that. I wouldn't also be surprised if Felder gets an even more parochial personal seat.

[Suburbia]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

[lfromnj]

I mean… isn’t this almost certainly overturned?

Or am I wrong

You’re wrong

EDIT: If this gets through the State Senate, then I give it about a 2/3 chance at worst of surviving the courts.  It will likely be due to hackery (although I disagree with Torie about hackish the map is, there's certainly no need to create an Orthodox Jewish seat and the map is less absurd than the original Republican map in Ohio.  Granted, low bar and all that; we're really just talking degrees of awful ).  That said, I'll never complain about an anti-Republican gerrymander's ugliness or brutality until national Republicans come out for a nationwide ban on gerrymandering.  It's like what Robin Williams said about having nuclear weapons: Until both have sides agree to give all of them up or it makes no sense for anyone to give any of them up.

Incidentally, Paul Tonko deserves a big shout out for being such a team player here.  Tonko and especially Morelle have strong enough ties to the New York legislature.  They could effectively draw their own districts and while Morelle only looked out for himself, Tonko clearly encouraged the legislature to unpack his district to help shore up Delgado.  Delgado is a very strong, hard-working incumbent, but he'd have been in real trouble in his old district.  

Reminds me of how IIRC McHenry lobbied NC Rs to put Asheville in his district in the 2010s redistricting to make NC-11 more R.  Even if it is in service of gerrymandering, I kinda respect folks like Tonko and McHenry for doing what they can to help out.

Regarding Delgado id say the biggest advantage of Tonko doing that is it basically just destroys the Syracuse district for Rs now. If Tonko didn't want to do that you probably switch the partisanship of the Syracuse district and Delgado by giving Delgado Ithaca.

[MaxQue]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

They'll have too, like Brooklyn currently does with the racist Italians.

[Brittain33]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

It’s a congressional seat so they’d have to secede from the U.S.!

[Kleine Scheiße]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

The Voice of Suburbia

[Torie]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

It’s a congressional seat so they’d have to secede from the U.S.!

A more "modest proposal" is that it could "secede" from NY and become part of NJ, to which it is closer to anyway. I know all the uber nerds on the forum already know this, but Todt Hill on SI is the highest point on the coastal plain that runs from Florida to Montawk, aka the tidewater and back when the slave belt (with supposedly Long Island having the highest percentage of slaves anywhere circa 1700 or some such date). And decorating the top of that hill, is a set of perhaps the gaudiest gates in America.

[Sol]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

It’s a congressional seat so they’d have to secede from the U.S.!

A more "modest proposal" is that it could "secede" from NY and become part of NJ, to which it is closer to anyway. I know all the uber nerds on the forum already know this, but Todt Hill on SI is the highest point on the coastal plain that runs from Florida to Montawk, aka the tidewater and back when the slave belt (with supposedly Long Island having the highest percentage of slaves anywhere circa 1700 or some such date). And decorating the top of that hill, is a set of perhaps the gaudiest gates in America.

Of course, all the parts of New Jersey nearest to Staten Island are Democratic voting as well-- that's not really a solution either, not to imply that this is a problem that should be solved.

[lfromnj]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

It’s a congressional seat so they’d have to secede from the U.S.!

A more "modest proposal" is that it could "secede" from NY and become part of NJ, to which it is closer to anyway. I know all the uber nerds on the forum already know this, but Todt Hill on SI is the highest point on the coastal plain that runs from Florida to Montawk, aka the tidewater and back when the slave belt (with supposedly Long Island having the highest percentage of slaves anywhere circa 1700 or some such date). And decorating the top of that hill, is a set of perhaps the gaudiest gates in America.

Of course, all the parts of New Jersey nearest to Staten Island are Democratic voting as well-- that's not really a solution either, not to imply that this is a problem that should be solved.

2 bridges, Elizabeth would be used for the hispanic seat so you would probably take the Perth Amboy  bridge and probably stay north of the Raritan for Middlesex County. Pure tossup seat at +0 .

The other option is actually to split Staten Island(more defendable from a NJ staten island as there are 2 bridges.) And put the northern part in the hispanic seat and then draw the rest of Staten Island down to more of Middlesex.

Even if you went from the Elizabeth bridge it would be +3 Biden or so.

It can't be understated the importance of how not only how Democratic Park Slope is but also how high turnout it is compared to anywhere else nearby.

[Brittain33]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

It’s a congressional seat so they’d have to secede from the U.S.!

A more "modest proposal" is that it could "secede" from NY and become part of NJ, to which it is closer to anyway. I know all the uber nerds on the forum already know this, but Todt Hill on SI is the highest point on the coastal plain that runs from Florida to Montawk, aka the tidewater and back when the slave belt (with supposedly Long Island having the highest percentage of slaves anywhere circa 1700 or some such date). And decorating the top of that hill, is a set of perhaps the gaudiest gates in America.

Of course, all the parts of New Jersey nearest to Staten Island are Democratic voting as well-- that's not really a solution either, not to imply that this is a problem that should be solved.

Perth Amboy and South Amboy have 60,000 people + 475,000 in Staten Island. You can then head down the GSP and pick up mildly Trumpy towns in Monmouth County.

[lfromnj]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

It’s a congressional seat so they’d have to secede from the U.S.!

A more "modest proposal" is that it could "secede" from NY and become part of NJ, to which it is closer to anyway. I know all the uber nerds on the forum already know this, but Todt Hill on SI is the highest point on the coastal plain that runs from Florida to Montawk, aka the tidewater and back when the slave belt (with supposedly Long Island having the highest percentage of slaves anywhere circa 1700 or some such date). And decorating the top of that hill, is a set of perhaps the gaudiest gates in America.

Of course, all the parts of New Jersey nearest to Staten Island are Democratic voting as well-- that's not really a solution either, not to imply that this is a problem that should be solved.

Perth Amboy and South Amboy have 60,000 people + 475,000 in Staten Island. You can then head down the GSP and pick up mildly Trumpy towns in Monmouth County.

Sayreville and old Bridge do the job.

[Torie]

You can also take in Bayonne if you want to go both ways. The Bayonne Bridge is quite spectacular to go over by the way.

I added a CD to NJ since I think giving NJ another 500K gives it another CD as a guess.

[Brittain33]

My father says the bridge itself was ruined when they raised the roadway, but that’s if you’re looking at it rather than from it.

[cinyc]

This is a job well done by New York Democrats. While awful for democracy, they know how to boost their own interests. Republicans can take up the offer any time to outlaw this kind of map drawing nationwide.

You mean like New Yorkers tried to do in 2014 when passing the state anti-Gerrymandering amendment? A lot good that did in stopping Democrats from Gerrymandering New York. And the language of the NYS Constitution is probably tougher than the proposed federal law, anyway.

We'll see if this map gets overturned in court. I'm not optimistic, but a good number of these districts aren't compact, as required by the NYS Constitution, and the map was drawn to favor a political party - which also violates the NYS Constitution.

[Torie]

My father says the bridge itself was ruined when they raised the roadway, but that’s if you’re looking at it rather than from it.

Correct.

[Ferguson97]

[ProgressiveModerate]

One can also argue the law as written in the constitution only applies directly onto the commission and not if the state legistlature draws the lines; the wording makes this kinda undlear

[Tintrlvr]

Kinda annoys me how they went for 0 deviation for most districts except the ones in Brooklyn/Manhattan

It's really hard to get zero deviation in NYC because many precincts (especially in Manhattan) consist of only one or two Census blocks that each have hundreds of people in them because it's just so dense. (One Manhattan block can easily have more than 1,000 residents.) Elsewhere in the state, and elsewhere in the country, a precinct will have dozens of Census blocks that are often in increments of 10-20 people.