2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[Sol]

FYI the somewhat odd boundary in Klickitat is to preserve the bulk of Yakama fishing grounds and off-reservation trust land in one district.

[ottermax]

These are some pretty significant changes. It's a bit of a subtle but effective Democratic gerrymander actually as it strengthens a slight Democratic tilt in LD 17 (probably not enough in most years to vote for Dems at the state level, but definitely closer), and a significantly stronger LD 14 now which still voted for Smiley in 2022, but had a double digit Biden support in 2020.

It looks like LD 14 could have a similar pattern to Central Valley California districts where presidential years are much more competitive for Democrats... if Democrats bother to put up any candidates. In particular in 2022 Democrats didn't even have candidates for LD 15 - the Latino seat drawn in 2020. I will never forget a WA State Dems meeting I went to where I asked about our plans to engage Latino voters in 2011 and was met with a response of "those voters don't show up, we win in the suburbs". It was very discouraging to hear even if there is some truth to that in terms of turnout but as a party I stopped participating in events and campaigns because of this mindset.

Anyways... it will be interesting to see if Democrats even bother to at least TRY now that they have a much more favorable configuration, but they really lost out an opportunity in 2020 to establish a better seat like this to help set some incumbency.

[Oryxslayer]

.

It looks like LD 14 could have a similar pattern to Central Valley California districts where presidential years are much more competitive for Democrats...

I mean that's cause at the end of the day the Yakima valley is a demographic extension of the CA Central Valley, or any other California agricultural region of which the Central Valley is the largest. People came to all of these areas for agricultural work and over time those who stayed built something lasting. You literally said it yourself: like in California turnout plummets quite easily if it's not a presidential year, giving Whites a oversized presence.

The one difference is that this district both geographically and demographically has a noticeable Native presence thanks to the Yakima Nation. To the point where I wouldn't be surprised if some Dem candidates come from that communtiy.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/davidsacc12345/status/1769049347004456970

[ottermax]

The specific change to the numbering is really interesting because it very much gives gerrymander vibes given current trends (14 being more favorable for Dems in presidential turnout, 17 being more favorable in midterm turnout).