2020 New York Redistricting

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Draft map next week on September 15. This will definitely be fun to watch.

https://twitter.com/RobertHarding/status/1436452936658272259?s=20

I’m excited and also terrified as to what they create

(also side note how do you always get every update first)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1483466223912374273

Do it! Do it! Do it! Do it!

Gerrymander is the game that’s being played in American politics right now, so until someone flips the table democrats have to play

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is there a map?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This whole trying to piece it together feels like a national treasure movie

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Big yikes for them if this is true:
https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1487905503267246082?cxt=HHwWhMC-2YCLjaY...

If I read right they put Nassau and The Bronx in one, so never say never

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

NY-10 is just bizarre… like why does it have the water *outside* the docks? Why does it have just one fourth or Central Park, and it’s the ramble at that??? And that arm…. God bless

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1487932813055823873?cxt=HHwWgsC4vd...

Basically brooklyn progressive whites and then mixed ideological minorities and lastly moderate Dems in Staten island

This is good news for Brittney Ramos Debarros

https://twitter.com/britt4congress/status/1362407321121423362?s=21

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

NY Dems act like “defenders of democracy” yet make this sh***y map. This map NEEDS to be taken down, and it should be unconstitutional

I agree it should be unconstitutional, but gerrymandering is the game being played in American politics. Democrats have take the high road in the past and it usually just left them locked out of power. So until legislation is passed federally (or in enough states) that prevents it democrats are dumb to not.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

WHY ARE DEMS SO OBSESSED WITH NY-10

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I do like that there is a district entirely in Manhattan again, haven’t seen one of those for a minute

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Hang on, NY-10 could be very interesting. Unless I'm wrong, both Nadler and Maloney are in 12 and Velazquez would either stay in 7 or move to 11 (Doesn't she live on the Red Hook waterfront?). So we should have an open seat covering all of Lower Manhattan, much of Brownstone Brooklyn, and Orthodox Borough Park.


Edit: God damn it, de Blasio's gonna run for this seat, isn't he?

https://twitter.com/bern_hogan/status/1526655757533446151

Bwahahahahaha

There were rumors yesterday that he was already taking on staff. But progressive local politicians are also looking at the sear, so another primary looks to be in the works.

This man has a public humiliation kink I swear

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

On a serious note Suraj Patel could run for the 10th and possibly win

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

On a serious note Suraj Patel could run for the 10th and possibly win

I think he has little chance in our primary, which will be dominated by the ultra-progressive wing of the party centered in brownstone Brooklyn. He only came close to beating Maloney previously because Maloney was unpopular with the progressives, not because he himself had any particular appeal. He's not nearly left enough for this district when there's no incumbent to run against.

The mention of de Blasio... He would be a fool to run. He's not popular even in this district, and he would do quite poorly. An ally who is less polarizing like Maya Wiley is much more likely.

Who do you think could win it then? I think Carlos Menchaca is just outside in the 11th, and I don’t know where exactly Wiley lives Brooklyn but she’d be another possibility if we’re looking to failed mayor candidates. Maybe Yuh-Line Niou could run, though she’s from Manhattan

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Another who could try for a comeback would be David Squadron, though he might have been out of office for too long

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Another who could try for a comeback would be David Squadron, though he might have been out of office for too long

As I recall Squadron left office very bitter about politics generally, so I doubt he'd come back in any form.

Also didn’t want to quote the post to avoid spam but that write up is really good and comprehensive!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why in God's holy name did Mondaire Jones decide to run in NY-10

wut

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.

Hopefully she kicks his butt.

Its still a Biden +10 seat and she literally said defund the police. The GOP also got a pretty good recruit as well.

We could lose this seat either way(especially given you said they have a good recruit) so I don't care. Maloney deserves to lose for his shenanigans

If this seat is flipping then this would be the worse election since 1894

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Musical chairs continues

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Now here’s a real blast from the past:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1734692514966258135

My favorite part is it’s a low jpg image so NYC looks like a smudged painting

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Except I don't think Schumer's 2022 numbers are a very good baseline - turnout was clearly lopsided in favor of Rs in a way that is unlikely for 2024, plus local dynamics pretty heavily favored Rs. Same way that Whitmer numbers in MI aren't a good baseline for Biden in 2024.

I don't think Rs were really thinking much about the redraw when choosing to get rid of Santos but may of just thought of him as an electoral liability in the future - regardless of how NY-03 is redrawn, it'll be a seat where Rs have at least a remote possibility of winning, and Santos throws that remote possibility away.

The redrawn NY-03 is unlikely to be safe for Democrats as long as NY-04 isn't being made into an R sink at the same time.

Have you even looked at Nassau electoral geography? Pushing both districts a good deal to towards the Democrats is literally the easiest thing, cause you are more or less just restoring the allignment from last decade. The most reliable GOP voters are all fairly densely concentrated in the Southeast corner centered on Massapequa. It was previously in NY-02 but then the master divided it up between the two Nassau seats. And Dems are obviously throwing it right back in NY-02, which is gonna become a pack of varying strength depending upon what happens further to the east.

Like the map below has both Nassau seats over Biden+20 and nominally only plurality White. Obviously it comes at the expense of NY-01 only going from Biden+0 to Biden+6 and not like Biden+10 or more, but Nassau is not this GOP bastion that needs to be spiderwebbed.

What overlay are you using and what’s it represent?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

2% of the total district?