2020 New York Redistricting

[Tintrlvr]

Grace Meng's district is not going to take in large chunks of Nassau County because that would substantially dilute the Asian population of her district, which is already relatively low, and also sets her up for a potentially competitive race as northeast Queens is just not that Democratic, and she would have to drop the more Democratic western portions of her district. You also can't put that much of Nassau into Meeks' district without diluting the black population too much (and putting only the black areas on the border into his district risks the remainder being quite Republican). The likeliest solution to this problem is a district that connects northern Nassau with southeastern Westchester via threads along the Queens and Bronx coasts (basically a cross-Sound district). You can see an example of that on my AOC-elimination map.

I also don't think the Democrats would create a Republican vote sink on Long Island because there is enough chance that the Democrats could sweep all seats on Long Island in a good year (I didn't check the 2016 PVIs, but all four of my LI seats have a Democratic PVI in 2008 - obviously there have been some R trends in parts of LI since then, but not enough to put any seat out of reach for the Dems), and they don't want to give up that possibility.

Edit: Also, you have drawn Kathleen Rice out of her district. She lives in the very Republican enclave of Garden City (although she also routinely overperforms there).

[Tintrlvr]

Grace Meng's district is not going to take in large chunks of Nassau County because that would substantially dilute the Asian population of her district, which is already relatively low, and also sets her up for a potentially competitive race as northeast Queens is just not that Democratic, and she would have to drop the more Democratic western portions of her district. You also can't put that much of Nassau into Meeks' district without diluting the black population too much (and putting only the black areas on the border into his district risks the remainder being quite Republican).

That sounds plausible at first glance, but I don't think it is actually right after briefly checking it. I quickly and not particularly carefully split up the extra part of Nassau County here between Meng's district and Meeks' district here:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1493837b-ce5d-4aea-8f84-3b0d88e9ac41

1) The Asian population in NW Nassau County is actually fairly high (including bona fide majority-Asian precincts), so Meng can take on a decent chunk of NE Nassau without any substantive issue. Without any effort and without crossing flushing meadows at all (leaving a whole bunch of majority Asian precincts out) I easily drew a 39% Asian plurality Asian district that also goes into Nassau. This is less Asian than yours which is 43% Asian, but can easily be brought up to 43% or so Asian if that is desired with some precinct swapping (most easily by crossing Flushing Meadows to include some of the same precincts you included).

2) The (decidedly non-optimized) district I drew for Meng is 61.4%-37.9% Obama 2008 (as compared to her current district, which was 63 - 36%). Although I didn't bother to check PVI, the district has not gotten any whiter since then... it is in 0 practical danger of voting GOP, but if it were it would be trivially easy to make it more Dem even while including the northern parts of Nassau County. Either the Hasidic Jewish precincts near Flushing or white competitive/R precincts to the north could easily be drawn out (interestingly enough, if AOC has a district, one or both could easily be put in her district).

3) Insofar as there is any practical danger to Meng, it is from a primary challenge. She is probably in less danger with a map similar to mine than with one similar to your AOC elimination one, if for no other reason that there is no risk of being matched up with AOC (but also, nobody is going to run a successful primary challenge against her based out of Nassau County).

4) Regarding Meeks' district, the district that I drew without any particular care which includes that whole chunk of southern Nassau county is a grand total of... 1% less black population than the one you drew. As with Meng's district, if you were trying to raise the African American population share a few points, I would bet that you could. This is still easily plurality African American and has 0 risk of ever voting Republican in a general election. Meeks should also be safer in a primary, because there are fewer non-Black dems in the district, and hence less base for a primary challenge. In addition, having his district go into Nassau makes it possible for the other Black districts to potentially also shift further away from Manhattan and the white progressives in Brooklyn. You mentioned in the other thread the primary challenge to Yvette Clark which in 2018 was supported by white liberals in Park Slope... Well, this would make it easier for both her and Hakeem Jeffries districts to both shift further east and to get rid of more of the gentrifying precincts which are the main threats to them (i.e. from a progressive/anti-establishment primary challenger). So Meeks, and also the other Black NYC representatives, ought to be happy with something like this.

The likeliest solution to this problem is a district that connects northern Nassau with southeastern Westchester via threads along the Queens and Bronx coasts (basically a cross-Sound district). You can see an example of that on my AOC-elimination map.

That also works (although Tom Suozzi might not like that much, as it potentially could make him vulnerable to a Westchester-based primary challenge, and is substantially different from his current district). The basic point I was trying to make though is you can eliminate a GOP district on LI easily, there are multiple different ways to do it.

I also don't think the Democrats would create a Republican vote sink on Long Island because there is enough chance that the Democrats could sweep all seats on Long Island in a good year (I didn't check the 2016 PVIs, but all four of my LI seats have a Democratic PVI in 2008 - obviously there have been some R trends in parts of LI since then, but not enough to put any seat out of reach for the Dems), and they don't want to give up that possibility.

Don't get me wrong, that would be fine with me. All the seats on LI can actually be made Dem leaning, if you are willing to gerrymander hard enough (I was assuming they probably wouldn't, but if they would, fine with me).

Edit: Also, you have drawn Kathleen Rice out of her district. She lives in the very Republican enclave of Garden City (although she also routinely overperforms there).

I wasn't paying attention to that sort of detail, just trying to see on a very basic level what is possible, but this sort of thing could easily be fixed by the actual mapmakers.

Honestly, I'm surprised, but good job. I do think the state legislative Democrats would prefer to leave Rice and Suozzi less safe in exchange for making Zeldin's seat winnable (maybe each of their seats is D+1 and Zeldin is R+2, or something similar), which also has the effect of being a much neater map most likely.

[Tintrlvr]

Meeks could potentially also go deeper into Nassau; Hempstead and some of the nearby communities are fairly Black if there's concern about his district's demographics.

That would be a good tactic if you were trying to draw a Republican gerrymander on Long Island but not so good for the Democrats.

On a related note, I tried a different and stronger R-pack on Long Island just to test if it could be done. Here's Tim Bishop's revenge: https://davesredistricting.org/join/dd59b447-0f17-4ffc-8ba4-b8cde462af91

I think Suozzi would be okay with his district extending to Westchester on this map given it's 2/3rds Long Island.

[Tintrlvr]

How would this be for an Upstate map?   Only 4 safe R districts.  Uses 2016 pop estimates.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf42bda7-4cd7-4a7a-a7b4-c8eac662ffd2



2012-2016 PVI's:

NY16- D+14.13
NY17- R+0.51
NY18- D+2.69
NY19- R+7.65
NY20- D+6.7
NY21- R+4.17
NY22- R+6.62
NY23- D+6.8
NY24- D+6.85
NY25- D+8.67
NY26- R+11.8

Since most of upstate north of Rockland/Westchester swung to Trump, it'd be expected most of the districts are a little more Republican than the PVI lets on.  

The main thing seems to be that uniting Tompkins with Syracuse is crucial.  NY-17 and NY-18 (southeast) would both be competitive, but probably winnable for Democrats.

Perhaps the 19th, 20th, and 21st could be rotated counterclockwise (i.e. Plattsburgh to the 20th) to give Delgado a better chance? It looks like a very clean but realistic map though!

Would be crazy to reach Delgado's district up to Plattsburgh. As drawn, this is quite favorable to him, although I'd do the cut into Greene County instead of Sullivan, which makes sense with the Hudson Valley orientation and is about partisan neutral (southeastern Greene County is not much different, partisan-wise, from southeastern Sullivan).

Brindisi would presumably move to Syracuse and run against Katko, which should be an easy win for him on this map. I also might put Cortland County instead of Oswego County into the Syracuse district, which is more cohesive on a map (and also moves the Syracuse district a bit further towards the Democrats - needed since that's the one Democratic seat with a Republican incumbent). You might be able to put Seneca County in there, too, which would allow you to cut down on the splitting of Broome County.

Edit: Here's my version, basically the same idea but with a few tweaks around the edges that I think make it neater. https://davesredistricting.org/join/09da5089-c844-484b-ab22-b3fec08616fe

[Tintrlvr]

Would be crazy to reach Delgado's district up to Plattsburgh.

I was actually referring to Tonko's district going up to Plattsburgh, not Delgado's. Delgado would take a chomp out of more D-leaning Albany area communities. Stefanik would take in more conservative areas in Delgado's (and Brindisi's) districts.

It is a bit of an outlandish idea though -- I might try and draw it to see if it'd work.

Got it. Tonko is based in Albany and wouldn't want to lose a lot of the Albany area to someone else, and his district isn't super safe to the point of being able to drop a lot of Democratic areas. Plattsburgh is not very big or very Democratic, so seems pretty unlikely.

[Tintrlvr]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/060abf38-58dd-470e-957a-8a2a7c3e6c38
something like this

https://davesredistricting.org/join/93c77798-629d-417c-9f85-0168c675234d
17 - R+1
18 - D+2
19 - D+2
20 - R+0
21 - R+5
22 - D+6
23 - R+7
24 - D+7
25 - R+12
26 - D+9

indeed, a really bad idea

How is this really bad? There are only 3 GOP-favoring seats in upstate under this plan, and I've checked the numbers, the Albany and Syracuse seats both voted Clinton. The Scenectady seat also was really close in 2016, and now you've furnished even more evidence of this, with it being EVEN.

The Albany-to-Plattsburgh idea would be less risky if you wanted to do something really aggressive like this. Leave the solid GOP areas out of it.

[Tintrlvr]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0dff3bc8-2479-44a4-9b3b-3a02a71fe404
what about this?
This has a district running from Torie's home county all the way to Quebec and boosts the Obama 08 % in the "Binghambany" district by 1.9 points and in the leftovers Capital Region seat by 0.9 points. The seats in the Lower Hudson Valley are unchanged.

This is really risky because you've put Elise Stefanik in the only marginally (at best) D district, and she is a strong incumbent. While Tonko's district is still only like D+3, which he is not going to be comfortable with (even if it's enough for the seat to be Likely D, for now anyway - but do remember that this map is supposed to last a decade).

[Tintrlvr]

is there any reason Democrats wouldn't gerrymander next year?  It doesn't make any sense to unilaterally not do so when half of the republican states are doing so.  A big state like this can counteract some of that.

There is a commission, albeit a weak one. Also, the Democratic majority in New York is new and includes a lot of people committed to ideals instead of partisan politics. And a surprising amount of New York is simply immune to gerrymandering: There isn't much you can do on Long Island, e.g., unless you really want to create a safe Republican seat to shore up the Democratic seats, but it's not clear that's what the Democrats want or should want given that they could draw four fair seats that are all winnable for the Democrats instead. Beyond the obvious (make sure Ithaca and Syracuse are finally paired with each other, connect Staten Island to the hyper-liberal white areas of Brooklyn and ensure the one seat lost (if it is only one seat) is a Republican one, most notably), the Democrats are already at their maximum number of safe seats, and there isn't that much to be done to shore them up without creating opportunities for the Republicans unless you're willing to bacon strip from NYC, which the Democrats definitely are not (and which also has the problem of creating issues with minority representation, which is a delicate balancing act in NYC and dictates the shape of most districts largely as they are now).

[Tintrlvr]

is there any reason Democrats wouldn't gerrymander next year?  It doesn't make any sense to unilaterally not do so when half of the republican states are doing so.  A big state like this can counteract some of that.

the geography of the state is terrible for gerrymandering. you could easily make the staten island district democratic, but the current lines upstate are basically the best democrats can do without risking a massive dummymander. suffolk co’s districts are also pretty untouchable unless you do some really weird lines

The only real big improvement to make Upstate for Democrats is uniting Ithaca with Syracuse.   The rest of the seats are all pretty much set in place for the most part (without doing anything crazy anyway).

I'd see NY-11 becoming a safe D district as a no brainer if the Dem legislature has any say at all in what happens.

Interestingly - If NY does lose two seats, that actually REALLY helps Max Rose's seat (NY-11) become even more safe since it'll have to go futher into Kings, where there's pretty much no Republican votes whatsoever past the Orthodox Jewish areas.

Yes, although you do have to thread it carefully around Borough Park, assuming the approach of putting Borough Park in Nadler's district is maintained (a commission might get rid of that arrangement, though, in which case all bets are off).

[Tintrlvr]

Additionally, will it be possible to draw two black-majority districts in Brooklyn anymore?

I don't think it is possible any more. It was only BARELY possible in 2010, and since then the general trends of district populations increasing, Hispanic/Asian population growth, suburbanization/spreading out of the African American population, and gentrification into black majority areas have all continued.

What I would expect to happen is that it will be similar to what gradually happened in other places like Los Angeles where it was no longer possible to draw black majority districts. The districts will remain with a black plurality (should be easily in the 40%-50% range) and that will be sufficient at least for the time-being for black voters to have an ability to elect the candidate of their choice. The most obvious way for that to happen is for the districts to abandon white liberal & gentrifying areas in the north-west of the current districts and instead to take on more territory (which is less liberal, more competitive, and in some cases Republican on the presidential level (Orthodox Jewish precincts).

From the perspective of the incumbents, this is a "win-win" - it means that the Staten Island district (and potentially also Nadler's district) don't need to suck up competitive/Republican territory in southern Brooklyn, and instead can include more liberal areas in NW Brooklyn which will make the Staten Island district in particular safe Dem in the General Election. Meanwhile the black incumbents in the the black plurality districts are also safer, because they no longer have to worry about progressive primary challenges based from the high-turnout white liberal precincts in north-west Brooklyn (and obviously they remain 110% safe in a General Election).


-- edit --

also from Max Rose's wikipedia page:

"Rose grew up primarily in Park Slope. He is Jewish, and celebrated becoming a bar mitzvah at Union Temple of Brooklyn in Prospect Heights."

So yeah, that is doubly more reason to expect Park Slope to be drawn into his district, and perhaps at least a good chunk of Prospect Heights also.

Prospect Heights (my neighborhood!) won't be drawn into Rose's district, as the black population is too substantial here even with demographic shifts over the past decade to be put anywhere but one of the black districts (presumably kept in Clarke's district). They could try pushing Rose's district west into Carroll Gardens/Cobble Hill, though, if the population works. Those neighborhoods are very heavily white and were only added to Velazquez's district in 2010 (i.e., she doesn't care about keeping them, and most of the minority politicians of late view having too many white liberals in their districts as somewhat dangerous to them in a primary in any case).

I agree that making the black districts actually majority black appears to no longer be possible (even on a -1 map and especially on a -2 map), but I don't think either Clarke or (especially) Jeffries feels particularly strongly about whether their district is 51% black or 45% black. Clarke is most interested in excising out voters who vote against her in primaries (so, white liberals in Park Slope) but doesn't care so much about having white Republicans in her seat. Jeffries probably would like to have more white liberals in his district but it's not something important to him (and he gets more just by virtue of demographic shifts anyway).

The 2020 primary will be important here, though. If Clarke loses her primary (and I would say it's 50/50 at this point, only not more because the internal factional strife has died down a bit since the IDC went belly up), all calculations on what will be done with her district are off.

[Tintrlvr]

Should NY-11 extend into Sunset Park, etc., more liberal areas?

If a Staten Island Republican wins, can they hold on?

Bay Ridge is one of the last Brooklyn GOP strongholds.

Sunset Park is the obvious area to slide into to shore up Max Rose. But it's not clear to me if that'd be acceptable because of the large Latino and Chinese communities there, which might prefer Velazquez's district. There's not much else in the vicinity to really boost him up.

I know in past discussion on this topic folks have talked about the possibility of giving him a slice of lower Manhattan on account of this issue. Heck, he could take in the Sunset Park Chinese community and the Manhattan Chinatown if you want more nonconfigurational logic in redistricting.

They're not going to take Chinese areas (either eastern Sunset Park or Chinatown) out of Velazquez's district. It's a key part of her coalition: She likes having populations that are part of political machines in her district. I don't think Velazquez's district is reasonable, but it's also not going anywhere.

Staten Island-to-Manhattan was an arrangement that existed before the 2000s redistricting (I think? Maybe it was the 90s redistricting), so it could definitely come back, though I don't think it's especially likely. If it did, though, it wouldn't take Chinatown, nor would the Democrats want it to, as Chinatown is actually one of the least Democratic (and lowest turnout) parts of Manhattan. It would instead travel up the west side through Tribeca and into Greenwich Village, taking in lots of 90% Democratic, high-turnout, heavily white areas. This would totally destroy Nadler's district, of course, so would be dependent on the map-drawers deciding to eliminate his district and consolidate the remainder of the white parts of Manhattan into Maloney's district (which then also pulls out of Brooklyn and Queens). That could happen if Nadler retires (and he is fairly old) but isn't going to happen as long as he's still around.

As discussed in other posts, the likeliest solution is to thread Rose's district up to the white liberal parts of Brooklyn that are right now mostly in Clarke's district: Kensington, Windsor Terrace, Park Slope and maybe even as far as Carroll Gardens and Cobble Hill (the F train corridor, basically the most liberal place in the country).

[Tintrlvr]

Prospect Heights (my neighborhood!) won't be drawn into Rose's district, as the black population is too substantial here even with demographic shifts over the past decade to be put anywhere but one of the black districts (presumably kept in Clarke's district). They could try pushing Rose's district west into Carroll Gardens/Cobble Hill, though, if the population works. Those neighborhoods are very heavily white and were only added to Velazquez's district in 2010 (i.e., she doesn't care about keeping them, and most of the minority politicians of late view having too many white liberals in their districts as somewhat dangerous to them in a primary in any case).

I agree that making the black districts actually majority black appears to no longer be possible (even on a -1 map and especially on a -2 map), but I don't think either Clarke or (especially) Jeffries feels particularly strongly about whether their district is 51% black or 45% black. Clarke is most interested in excising out voters who vote against her in primaries (so, white liberals in Park Slope) but doesn't care so much about having white Republicans in her seat. Jeffries probably would like to have more white liberals in his district but it's not something important to him (and he gets more just by virtue of demographic shifts anyway).

The 2020 primary will be important here, though. If Clarke loses her primary (and I would say it's 50/50 at this point, only not more because the internal factional strife has died down a bit since the IDC went belly up), all calculations on what will be done with her district are off.

Re: Prospect Heights, I wouldn't say the whole thing gets drawn in, but it is only 25% black in the 2016 DRA data, and should be lower in the 2020 data. A bunch of precincts particularly in the western part are lower than that also, so even if it doesn't all get drawn in, it definitely seems conceivable that some precincts could be. Yes, Carroll Gardens/Cobble Hill make sense of course.

However, since you mention Jeffries, he apparently lives in Prospect Heights, so he might well get some or all of it.

If Yvette Clarke loses her primary in 2020 due to votes from white voters in the western part of current NY-09 (but still wins in majority black areas in the rest of the district), there will still be a VRA case (indeed, more of a VRA case than currently) to remove those white liberal parts from NY-09, since they will have stopped the district from 'performing' and it won't have elected the candidate of choice of African American voters.

Yes and no on the last point - given that the candidate who is likely to defeat her, Adem Bunkedekko, is also black and does get a lot of support from recent African and Caribbean immigrants also (but the largest portion of his support from white liberals). I don't think the VRA would really be implicated since immediately after Clarke loses Bunkedekko would become the preferred black candidate. There is precedent here. Donna Edwards definitely lost the black vote when she defeated Albert Wynn in the primary in MD-04 in 2008, but she immediately started winning the black vote in subsequent elections.

[Tintrlvr]

So after more retirements, it presently appears that Democratic a supermajority is easily within reach in the State Senate. Now that Felder is on the dem side and desiring power, there are 40 dems and they only need three more. Two of those three are now provided by the retirements in Rochester. The other 8 (and potentially more) open seats are forcing the GOP to play defense in their safer seats. A dem supermajority would allow the democrats to ignore their toothless commission without jumping through hoops or breaking much sweat.



Quick and dirty GOP retirement map, I do not claim ownership over the template.

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1218630301896839169

Ratings from NY insider when there were only 9 retirements.

While there isn't much room to gerrymander the Congressional map anyway, there's definitely a lot of room to gerrymander the state legislative map (first de-gerrymander, and then gerrymander in the Democrats' favor) and ensure the Republicans can never come near controlling the State Senate again, which will I think be the top priority for the state legislative Democrats. Of course, even if they don't win a super-majority, a commission-drawn map will mean the end of any Republican chances at winning the State Senate again (just looking at that map, anyone should be able to see why).

[Tintrlvr]

Would Cuomo sign a non-GOP gerrymandered Senate map? He went with the Republicans last time.

Of course he would. The Republicans controlled the State Senate last time, so no map would have been passed otherwise. He could have thrown the maps to the courts, but the Assembly Democrats wanted to control their own map rather than let the courts decide. The map last time was a "compromise": the Democrats got to gerrymander the Assembly and the Republicans got to gerrymander the Senate. That's obviously out the window this time. The only options this time for Cuomo are a commission-drawn map (which it's hard to assess but probably would be relatively fair, overall) or a legislature-drawn map (which will be a Democratic gerrymander).

[Tintrlvr]

The Brooklyn part of that map is kind of crazy-pants. No way that's anything close to what ends up being drawn. They're not going to abolish a Hispanic district for the specific purpose of creating a new white district. That NY-08 is dead on arrival.

The rest of the map seems somewhat reasonable, but they would probably send NY-04 into the Bronx and maybe even all the way into Westchester in order to take more Asian areas into NY-06.

[Tintrlvr]

The Brooklyn part of that map is kind of crazy-pants. No way that's anything close to what ends up being drawn. They're not going to abolish a Hispanic district for the specific purpose of creating a new white district. That NY-08 is dead on arrival.

The rest of the map seems somewhat reasonable, but they would probably send NY-04 into the Bronx and maybe even all the way into Westchester in order to take more Asian areas into NY-06.

Your comment has considerable merit of course. Having said that, the Pubs would never agree to the chop up of the gerrymander extravaganza of the NYC area, and in particular the chop up of the "natural" south Brooklyn CD, that no law in the land requires. As it is, NY-11 tips to the Dems in this map, and it could have been drawn to avoid that by taking in Borough Park.

While the judge who drew the existing map did an excellent job upstate, his map downstate was an erose mess, that I would never spend the time drawing because I would find engaging in such an exercise to be infra dig.  

I would like to think that if the map goes to the courts again, a different judge would give more weight to respecting jurisdictional lines, and keeping erosity down to a dull roar. And depending on the census demographic data, it may be difficult to draw three performing Hispanic districts. As I implied, if the demographic data would support a 3rd performing Hispanic CD, without drawing something akin to the existing map (which may be a challenging task in all events), then I would redraw the map. Drawing the NYC area as I noted is premature in all events until the precinct ethnicity data becomes available, since that obviously is a major factor driving the location of the CD lines.

I'm sorry, but there's no way the Democrats on the commission would ever sign off on a map that eliminated Nydia Velazquez in order to create a Republican seat in Brooklyn. That's just completely out of the question. They would (obviously) rather the courts draw the map. And you're also just wrong on the courts: The courts would never eliminate a Hispanic seat (with an increasing Hispanic population) in favor of a white seat (with a declining white population), either.

Even if they were inclined to, why would the courts create a Republican white seat instead of a Democratic white seat? You admitted yourself that you shredded the white areas in the north of the borough instead of shredding the white areas in the south of the borough, which really is only justifiable one way or another on partisan grounds. Why would the courts preference the partisan interests of Republicans over the partisan interests of Democrats while also favoring white voters over Hispanic voters? It's not like it would be a Republican partisan drawing the map.

[Tintrlvr]

With 2020 Census figures making the mapping easier for the Democrats...

Here's a 22-4 map that I'm quite proud of. Eliminates Tenney, protects all Democratic incumbents and also leaves both Katko and Garbarino in D-leaning seats while Malliotakis is DOA in a fairly safe D district. I'm not sure how you would actually do 23-3; this feels quite tight upstate already, and any tighter is definitely putting incumbents at risk. (As is, Sean Patrick Maloney is already in a very narrowly R-leaning seat, but slightly less R-leaning than his current seat.) It's true that there are some Democratic areas left in Stefanik's district, but to use them I think you'd have to put someone quite at risk.

NYC I largely left as least-change other than ensuring that the Staten Island-based district was Democratic enough, although I did make some tweaks in spots that I think may be prioritized by the legislature, such as trying to shore up Carolyn Maloney in the primary. Essentially the entire lost district comes from Upstate.




https://davesredistricting.org/join/072b68bb-579d-4317-a705-d8140f1d0656

[Tintrlvr]

The argument is that Buffalo and Rochester together can support 3 seats for Dems. Is that possible with your map? Your Buffalo district looks pretty blue.

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk. And this is not at all a part of the state where a D+2 seat can be considered a likely win for the Democrats; the state Republicans relied on exactly such seats to hold the State Senate for such a long time, and Republicans have a particular history of overperforming Presidential figures in the Buffalo and Rochester areas.

It might have been easier when we only had estimates and it was less clear the degree to which the entire lost seat would come from Upstate.

If you were willing to connect Ithaca westward, perhaps you could do it. But I think Ithaca is needed in other districts; either in Delgado's district, as I've done, or perhaps you could put it in Katko's district to ensure he loses and run Delgado up to Plattsburgh instead. (I'm working on that alternative right now.)

Edit: Here's the map with a Syracuse-Ithaca district for Katko that sends Delgado's district up to the Canadian border. Not sure how Delgado would feel about having a district covering such far-flung territories (and it's about a point less Democratic than my previous edition, though still noticeably more Democratic than his current district), but this definitely ensures Katko loses.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5d7c1d5-5e85-4431-b6fa-ae526d4cbe69

[Tintrlvr]

You’re right, I was misremembering how Wasserman did it and the third district does go east to Syracuse. Here’s the tweet.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1424841034316517388?s=21

I have not that much confidence in the Dems’ ability to win that NY-22.

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk.

You can't while having relatively "clean" lines like you have, but if you use squiggly lines instead, there is a way ("where there's a squiggle there's a way"):

I mean, you could also draw a 26-0 map in NY if you’re willing to squiggle enough. But the state politicians also have other priorities.

[Tintrlvr]

In any event, I have continued tweaking my map a bit. I realized I didn't take into account some incumbent residences and had accidentally drawn Delgado, Sean Patrick Maloney and Tonko out of their districts. That is fixed now. I also made some edits to get Sean Patrick Maloney a (barely) D PVI district, which I think would work.

There are other edits the Democrats could make to improve the map at the margins (for example, putting the city of Auburn in the Syracuse-Ithaca district), but those would not make a huge difference and I think there will be at least some interest in drawing a map that isn't too stringy. (The only obviously gerrymandered district upstate is Delgado's; the rest are quite fair.) I think this is overall a solid map.

(Image is of upstate only; downstate hasn't changed except a few precinct moves on Long Island).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5d7c1d5-5e85-4431-b6fa-ae526d4cbe69

[Tintrlvr]

In any event, I have continued tweaking my map a bit. I realized I didn't take into account some incumbent residences and had accidentally drawn Delgado, Sean Patrick Maloney and Tonko out of their districts. That is fixed now. I also made some edits to get Sean Patrick Maloney a (barely) D PVI district, which I think would work.

There are other edits the Democrats could make to improve the map at the margins (for example, putting the city of Auburn in the Syracuse-Ithaca district), but those would not make a huge difference and I think there will be at least some interest in drawing a map that isn't too stringy. (The only obviously gerrymandered district upstate is Delgado's; the rest are quite fair.) I think this is overall a solid map.

(Image is of upstate only; downstate hasn't changed except a few precinct moves on Long Island).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5d7c1d5-5e85-4431-b6fa-ae526d4cbe69

My questions about this:
-Where would Katko run here? Does he stay in the Syracuse seat or does he jump over to redder territory.
-What would Tenney do?
-Are Delgado and Maloney vulnerable with this map?
-Does Garbarino run in 1 or 2? Would Zeldin drop back down to the house now that Cuomo is out?
-Is 2 winnable for Republicans

1. Katko would probably try to run for reelection in the Syracuse-Ithaca district. While it's a D+6 seat, he did technically win by a large enough margin in 2020 that on a universal swing he could have won in a D+6 seat. I think it's pretty unlikely he would manage reelection, but it's not entirely impossible. He doesn't have any good alternatives as the other seats nearby seats are occupied.

2. Tenney would probably run in NY-20. Technically she is the only Congressperson resident there; on this map, Stefanik lives in NY-19, and she previously lived in NY-21 but has never lived in this NY-20. That said, I think Stefanik would also run in NY-20, and it would be an all-out Trumpier-than-thou battle. Tenney might be able to come through for the victory as well as her Oneida County base is entirely in the district but Stefanik's base is split across NY-19, 20 and 21.

3. NY-21 is D+1.16 compared to Delgado's current district, which is R+3. And NY-18 is D+0.27, compared to Sean Patrick Maloney's current district, which is R+1. So, are they vulnerable? Yes, D+1 and D+0 are definitely winnable for Republicans, but they are nonetheless safer than their current districts (Delgado significantly so).

4. Garbarino lives in NY-2 and would presumably run there despite NY-1 being safe, but I suppose it depends on what happens with Zeldin's gubernatorial run. Garbarino just isn't established enough where other interested Republicans in Suffolk County would step aside for him in NY-1. NY-2 is D+1.17, so still potentially winnable for Garbarino but would be highly vulnerable, especially as Garbarino is pretty anonymous. (Peter King, e.g., would have been better positioned to hang on.) It is an approach I hadn't considered to put Garbarino's home in NY-1, though, which would help the Democrats win NY-2 by ensuring there's no incumbent. I'm not sure where in Sayville Garbarino lives, though, and Sayville does run all the way to the bay.

5. See above - could be winnable. This was about as good as I could do for the Democrats without really snaky lines on Long Island and/or strips into Queens. (NY-3 is D+3.04 and NY-4 is D+3.43 so no real room to take more out of them.) I did try to match village lines in Suffolk County, and if you wanted to split up more villages (especially by freeing the Hamptons from NY-1), you could probably squeeze another 0.3-0.5 of D PVI out.

[Tintrlvr]

If you want to be stringier on Long Island, here's an alternative map. This gets NY-02 up to D+2 and NY-04 up to D+5 (rounding up). Still not huge improvement for a lot of messiness.

[Tintrlvr]

My Long Island map

Districts D +9, +12, +12, and +13

Honestly that's one of the best LI maps I've seen in terms opf gerrymandering while making it look clean. Like how you put that strip of blue down the middle into NY-1 and bacon-stripped the others; quite effective.

It will never happen though because it rips apart the black seat in SE Queens. Even aside from potential VRA concerns, it wouldn't work politically in NYS. As I've said elsewhere on this thread, you could draw a 26-0 map, but it won't happen because of political considerations.

[Tintrlvr]

AOC could solve one problem herself by running against Hochul or Schumer, or pulling a Delaney and announcing a 2024 Presidential bid early and not running for reelection in 2022.

Then it would be her district getting chopped up.

There's no reason for anything meaningful to change in NYC (other than drawing a district that gets rid of Malliotakis) because NYC gained enough population that it won't lose a district, and certainly no district in NYC will be eliminated. The lost district will be entirely upstate.

[Tintrlvr]

Since the Rs are going to push the VRA, Dems should as well. Push some of Queens, Brooklyn into LI districts and look into the idea of bacon stripping NY-1, NY-2 and getting BOTH seats instead of packing the GOP into a very red 2nd. Dems have a better chance at 23-3 this way than against Katko who isn't losing with a Dem President.

That's pretty hard unless you want to knock out a black VRA seat that can objectively be drawn (current NY-5). Otherwise a bacon stripping would result in just a bunch of Biden + 3ish seats, some of which may have gone for Trump in 2016 adn would be unreliable at best.

Working on a map right now with a plurality black (40%) NY-05. It's 30% Republican, so it should perform as a black VRA seat because black voters should constitute a majority in the primary.

May work for VRA reasons but still is unlikely to be viable politically in NY.