2020 New York Redistricting

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Some discussion of NY redistricting started in other threads (Census data thread and AOC thread in the Congressional forum), so it seems like a good time to start a thread dedicated to NY 2020 redistricting.

NY is projected to lose 2 seats in re-apportionment, though maybe if estimates turn out to be too low or growth somehow picks up over the next year, it might only lose 1 seat. This being the case, it seems fairly clear that if 1 seat is lost, the lost seat will almost certainly have to be Upstate. If a 2nd seat is lost, there is more uncertainty as to exactly what seat that would be and what area it would come from. Overall, upstate and long Island have been losing population, while NYC and its immediate suburbs have had some population growth (albeit below the national average).


With 2016 population estimates, if NY loses 2 districts it turns out to be pretty straightforward to eliminate 1 GOP seat on Long Island (Peter King's, in this case). I would expect that something approximating this is likely to happen if Democrats control redistricting in NY. The basic formula is to turn NY-01 into a a bit more of a Republican vote sink (although unfortunately it still includes some fairly strong Democratic areas), and to put the most Dem areas which are the furthest to the east on Long Island into 2 Democratic districts, and then to have a remaining portion of Nassau County that gets combined with the NYC districts. As one possible example, the map here has 3 seats in Long Island:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bad58d5c-d5ca-44b8-9100-e49b3a33af5f (2016 pop estimates map)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a54c23b3-50c6-407a-82a4-3795bfdb7236 (PVI map)

NY-01: Lee Zeldin (R+8)
NY-02: Tom Suozzi (D+4)
NY-03: Kathleen Rice (D+4)

For reference, Zeldin's current district is R+5, Suozzi's is D+1, and Rice's is D+4. So the effect of this map is to eliminate entirely Peter King's current R+3 seat, while also making considerably Suozzi safer and leaving Rice's district no more Republican than it was in the first place.

In addition to those 3 seats, there is sufficient population for about 60% of a district left over in Nassau County. This remainder is not even really Republican (it is R+0.6), so it is trivial to divide this remainder up between 2 or 3 NYC districts, and no matter how that is drawn/split up, all of those 2 or 3 NYC districts will be safe Dem. Likely districts for this job include Gregory Meeks' district (which already contains a decent portion of Nassau County currently) and Grace Meng's district, but maybe they could throw in a 3rd district to help out. This 60% of a district will also probably shrink down to more like 50% of a district left over with 2020 census data rather than 2016 estimates. So It is also likely to be a bit easier to do all of this with the 2020 census data than with the 2016 estimates, since more of the population distribution will likely have shifted towards NYC by that point.

If desired, it would also be possible to make NY-02 and NY-03 more democratic still by making the lines a bit messier but picking up some of the more Dem precincts remaining in the left over Nassau section (or possibly drawing 1 of the districts just a little bit into NYC itself).

In addition, if Dems control redistricting they are likely to sure up Max Rose's district. The Staten Island district can be easily made safely Democratic by simply drawing the heavily democratic and high turnout Park Slope area into it.

There is also some speculation that some in the NY establishment might wish to target AOC for elimination. It is still in principle possible that they could try to do this without eliminating a Dem NYC seat, but it should be clear from this map that it is not necessary to eliminate a Dem seat in NYC, it is very straightforward to eliminate a Republican-leaning seat on LI instead.

So overall, my expectation at the moment would be for -1 GOP seats on Long Island, and -1 upstate seats (which could potentially come at the cost of either Dems or the GOP).

[Zaybay]

NY is projected to lose 2 seats in re-apportionment

I hate to be a stickler, but currently New York is projected to only lose one seat. That could change come 2020, but the 2019 census gave them 26 seats.

[Tintrlvr]

Grace Meng's district is not going to take in large chunks of Nassau County because that would substantially dilute the Asian population of her district, which is already relatively low, and also sets her up for a potentially competitive race as northeast Queens is just not that Democratic, and she would have to drop the more Democratic western portions of her district. You also can't put that much of Nassau into Meeks' district without diluting the black population too much (and putting only the black areas on the border into his district risks the remainder being quite Republican). The likeliest solution to this problem is a district that connects northern Nassau with southeastern Westchester via threads along the Queens and Bronx coasts (basically a cross-Sound district). You can see an example of that on my AOC-elimination map.

I also don't think the Democrats would create a Republican vote sink on Long Island because there is enough chance that the Democrats could sweep all seats on Long Island in a good year (I didn't check the 2016 PVIs, but all four of my LI seats have a Democratic PVI in 2008 - obviously there have been some R trends in parts of LI since then, but not enough to put any seat out of reach for the Dems), and they don't want to give up that possibility.

Edit: Also, you have drawn Kathleen Rice out of her district. She lives in the very Republican enclave of Garden City (although she also routinely overperforms there).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Grace Meng's district is not going to take in large chunks of Nassau County because that would substantially dilute the Asian population of her district, which is already relatively low, and also sets her up for a potentially competitive race as northeast Queens is just not that Democratic, and she would have to drop the more Democratic western portions of her district. You also can't put that much of Nassau into Meeks' district without diluting the black population too much (and putting only the black areas on the border into his district risks the remainder being quite Republican).

That sounds plausible at first glance, but I don't think it is actually right after briefly checking it. I quickly and not particularly carefully split up the extra part of Nassau County here between Meng's district and Meeks' district here:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1493837b-ce5d-4aea-8f84-3b0d88e9ac41

1) The Asian population in NW Nassau County is actually fairly high (including bona fide majority-Asian precincts), so Meng can take on a decent chunk of NE Nassau without any substantive issue. Without any effort and without crossing flushing meadows at all (leaving a whole bunch of majority Asian precincts out) I easily drew a 39% Asian plurality Asian district that also goes into Nassau. This is less Asian than yours which is 43% Asian, but can easily be brought up to 43% or so Asian if that is desired with some precinct swapping (most easily by crossing Flushing Meadows to include some of the same precincts you included).

2) The (decidedly non-optimized) district I drew for Meng is 61.4%-37.9% Obama 2008 (as compared to her current district, which was 63 - 36%). Although I didn't bother to check PVI, the district has not gotten any whiter since then... it is in 0 practical danger of voting GOP, but if it were it would be trivially easy to make it more Dem even while including the northern parts of Nassau County. Either the Hasidic Jewish precincts near Flushing or white competitive/R precincts to the north could easily be drawn out (interestingly enough, if AOC has a district, one or both could easily be put in her district).

3) Insofar as there is any practical danger to Meng, it is from a primary challenge. She is probably in less danger with a map similar to mine than with one similar to your AOC elimination one, if for no other reason that there is no risk of being matched up with AOC (but also, nobody is going to run a successful primary challenge against her based out of Nassau County).

4) Regarding Meeks' district, the district that I drew without any particular care which includes that whole chunk of southern Nassau county is a grand total of... 1% less black population than the one you drew. As with Meng's district, if you were trying to raise the African American population share a few points, I would bet that you could. This is still easily plurality African American and has 0 risk of ever voting Republican in a general election. Meeks should also be safer in a primary, because there are fewer non-Black dems in the district, and hence less base for a primary challenge. In addition, having his district go into Nassau makes it possible for the other Black districts to potentially also shift further away from Manhattan and the white progressives in Brooklyn. You mentioned in the other thread the primary challenge to Yvette Clark which in 2018 was supported by white liberals in Park Slope... Well, this would make it easier for both her and Hakeem Jeffries districts to both shift further east and to get rid of more of the gentrifying precincts which are the main threats to them (i.e. from a progressive/anti-establishment primary challenger). So Meeks, and also the other Black NYC representatives, ought to be happy with something like this.

The likeliest solution to this problem is a district that connects northern Nassau with southeastern Westchester via threads along the Queens and Bronx coasts (basically a cross-Sound district). You can see an example of that on my AOC-elimination map.

That also works (although Tom Suozzi might not like that much, as it potentially could make him vulnerable to a Westchester-based primary challenge, and is substantially different from his current district). The basic point I was trying to make though is you can eliminate a GOP district on LI easily, there are multiple different ways to do it.

I also don't think the Democrats would create a Republican vote sink on Long Island because there is enough chance that the Democrats could sweep all seats on Long Island in a good year (I didn't check the 2016 PVIs, but all four of my LI seats have a Democratic PVI in 2008 - obviously there have been some R trends in parts of LI since then, but not enough to put any seat out of reach for the Dems), and they don't want to give up that possibility.

Don't get me wrong, that would be fine with me. All the seats on LI can actually be made Dem leaning, if you are willing to gerrymander hard enough (I was assuming they probably wouldn't, but if they would, fine with me).

Edit: Also, you have drawn Kathleen Rice out of her district. She lives in the very Republican enclave of Garden City (although she also routinely overperforms there).

I wasn't paying attention to that sort of detail, just trying to see on a very basic level what is possible, but this sort of thing could easily be fixed by the actual mapmakers.

[Tintrlvr]

Grace Meng's district is not going to take in large chunks of Nassau County because that would substantially dilute the Asian population of her district, which is already relatively low, and also sets her up for a potentially competitive race as northeast Queens is just not that Democratic, and she would have to drop the more Democratic western portions of her district. You also can't put that much of Nassau into Meeks' district without diluting the black population too much (and putting only the black areas on the border into his district risks the remainder being quite Republican).

That sounds plausible at first glance, but I don't think it is actually right after briefly checking it. I quickly and not particularly carefully split up the extra part of Nassau County here between Meng's district and Meeks' district here:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1493837b-ce5d-4aea-8f84-3b0d88e9ac41

1) The Asian population in NW Nassau County is actually fairly high (including bona fide majority-Asian precincts), so Meng can take on a decent chunk of NE Nassau without any substantive issue. Without any effort and without crossing flushing meadows at all (leaving a whole bunch of majority Asian precincts out) I easily drew a 39% Asian plurality Asian district that also goes into Nassau. This is less Asian than yours which is 43% Asian, but can easily be brought up to 43% or so Asian if that is desired with some precinct swapping (most easily by crossing Flushing Meadows to include some of the same precincts you included).

2) The (decidedly non-optimized) district I drew for Meng is 61.4%-37.9% Obama 2008 (as compared to her current district, which was 63 - 36%). Although I didn't bother to check PVI, the district has not gotten any whiter since then... it is in 0 practical danger of voting GOP, but if it were it would be trivially easy to make it more Dem even while including the northern parts of Nassau County. Either the Hasidic Jewish precincts near Flushing or white competitive/R precincts to the north could easily be drawn out (interestingly enough, if AOC has a district, one or both could easily be put in her district).

3) Insofar as there is any practical danger to Meng, it is from a primary challenge. She is probably in less danger with a map similar to mine than with one similar to your AOC elimination one, if for no other reason that there is no risk of being matched up with AOC (but also, nobody is going to run a successful primary challenge against her based out of Nassau County).

4) Regarding Meeks' district, the district that I drew without any particular care which includes that whole chunk of southern Nassau county is a grand total of... 1% less black population than the one you drew. As with Meng's district, if you were trying to raise the African American population share a few points, I would bet that you could. This is still easily plurality African American and has 0 risk of ever voting Republican in a general election. Meeks should also be safer in a primary, because there are fewer non-Black dems in the district, and hence less base for a primary challenge. In addition, having his district go into Nassau makes it possible for the other Black districts to potentially also shift further away from Manhattan and the white progressives in Brooklyn. You mentioned in the other thread the primary challenge to Yvette Clark which in 2018 was supported by white liberals in Park Slope... Well, this would make it easier for both her and Hakeem Jeffries districts to both shift further east and to get rid of more of the gentrifying precincts which are the main threats to them (i.e. from a progressive/anti-establishment primary challenger). So Meeks, and also the other Black NYC representatives, ought to be happy with something like this.

The likeliest solution to this problem is a district that connects northern Nassau with southeastern Westchester via threads along the Queens and Bronx coasts (basically a cross-Sound district). You can see an example of that on my AOC-elimination map.

That also works (although Tom Suozzi might not like that much, as it potentially could make him vulnerable to a Westchester-based primary challenge, and is substantially different from his current district). The basic point I was trying to make though is you can eliminate a GOP district on LI easily, there are multiple different ways to do it.

I also don't think the Democrats would create a Republican vote sink on Long Island because there is enough chance that the Democrats could sweep all seats on Long Island in a good year (I didn't check the 2016 PVIs, but all four of my LI seats have a Democratic PVI in 2008 - obviously there have been some R trends in parts of LI since then, but not enough to put any seat out of reach for the Dems), and they don't want to give up that possibility.

Don't get me wrong, that would be fine with me. All the seats on LI can actually be made Dem leaning, if you are willing to gerrymander hard enough (I was assuming they probably wouldn't, but if they would, fine with me).

Edit: Also, you have drawn Kathleen Rice out of her district. She lives in the very Republican enclave of Garden City (although she also routinely overperforms there).

I wasn't paying attention to that sort of detail, just trying to see on a very basic level what is possible, but this sort of thing could easily be fixed by the actual mapmakers.

Honestly, I'm surprised, but good job. I do think the state legislative Democrats would prefer to leave Rice and Suozzi less safe in exchange for making Zeldin's seat winnable (maybe each of their seats is D+1 and Zeldin is R+2, or something similar), which also has the effect of being a much neater map most likely.

[Sol]

Meeks could potentially also go deeper into Nassau; Hempstead and some of the nearby communities are fairly Black if there's concern about his district's demographics.

[Tintrlvr]

Meeks could potentially also go deeper into Nassau; Hempstead and some of the nearby communities are fairly Black if there's concern about his district's demographics.

That would be a good tactic if you were trying to draw a Republican gerrymander on Long Island but not so good for the Democrats.

On a related note, I tried a different and stronger R-pack on Long Island just to test if it could be done. Here's Tim Bishop's revenge: https://davesredistricting.org/join/dd59b447-0f17-4ffc-8ba4-b8cde462af91

I think Suozzi would be okay with his district extending to Westchester on this map given it's 2/3rds Long Island.

[Nyvin]

If New York goes down to 26 districts rather than 27,  then Suffolk county will be very close to two districts in size.   Wouldn't it just make more sense to make a western and eastern district in Suffolk?    The western one could be slight tilt-D if you take in the right parts of Nassau.

Making the two Nassau districts Lean-D would be easy I would think,  especially given how northern Nassau is trending.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

what chance is there we get a Orthodox Jews of Southern Brooklyn-dedicated district?

[Sol]

Something which will also matter is the new redistricting process.

This article summarizes the process:

In 2021, that commission will be created for the first time, composed of ten members -- two each appointed by the Assembly Speaker, Senate majority leader, and minority leaders in both houses; and two chosen by a majority of those eight appointed members...The law also protects against the party in power from exploiting its position. If the leaders of the two legislative chambers represent different parties, the newly drawn maps recommended by the commission must be approved by a majority vote of each house. But, if both chambers are controlled by the same party, approval would require a two-thirds majority vote. 

*

So basically if I'm understanding this correctly it'll be an Arizona-style bipartisan process with independent commissioners as tiebreakers. However, the legislature can apparently draw their own maps after voting down a few of the commission's maps--but I think this commission will probably have a bigger role than folks will think since it was passed with the agreement of leadership in both parties. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a neat bipartisan gerrymander with each party losing a seat.



*Let me know if quoting this article is a copyright issue and I'll take it down.

[Oryxslayer]

Something which will also matter is the new redistricting process.

This article summarizes the process:

In 2021, that commission will be created for the first time, composed of ten members -- two each appointed by the Assembly Speaker, Senate majority leader, and minority leaders in both houses; and two chosen by a majority of those eight appointed members...The law also protects against the party in power from exploiting its position. If the leaders of the two legislative chambers represent different parties, the newly drawn maps recommended by the commission must be approved by a majority vote of each house. But, if both chambers are controlled by the same party, approval would require a two-thirds majority vote.  

*

So basically if I'm understanding this correctly it'll be an Arizona-style bipartisan process with independent commissioners as tiebreakers. However, the legislature can apparently draw their own maps after voting down a few of the commission's maps--but I think this commission will probably have a bigger role than folks will think since it was passed with the agreement of leadership in both parties. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a neat bipartisan gerrymander with each party losing a seat.



*Let me know if quoting this article is a copyright issue and I'll take it down.

I have mentioned in other threads that this commission is rather toothless since the legislature can get their own maps going not that long into the process. The only real difference between this body and the ignored 'advisory' commissions many states had in 2010 was that it is inscribed in law. The problem is that the law expected the NY Senate to remain a battleground, not a chamber where democrats are 2-3 seats away from a supermajority. Those 2-3 seats which could easily fall in 11 months, a GOP retirement has already given team blue one favored pickup.

[Sol]

Something which will also matter is the new redistricting process.

This article summarizes the process:

In 2021, that commission will be created for the first time, composed of ten members -- two each appointed by the Assembly Speaker, Senate majority leader, and minority leaders in both houses; and two chosen by a majority of those eight appointed members...The law also protects against the party in power from exploiting its position. If the leaders of the two legislative chambers represent different parties, the newly drawn maps recommended by the commission must be approved by a majority vote of each house. But, if both chambers are controlled by the same party, approval would require a two-thirds majority vote.  

*

So basically if I'm understanding this correctly it'll be an Arizona-style bipartisan process with independent commissioners as tiebreakers. However, the legislature can apparently draw their own maps after voting down a few of the commission's maps--but I think this commission will probably have a bigger role than folks will think since it was passed with the agreement of leadership in both parties. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a neat bipartisan gerrymander with each party losing a seat.



*Let me know if quoting this article is a copyright issue and I'll take it down.

I have mentioned in other threads that this commission is rather toothless since the legislature can get their own maps going not that long into the process. The only real difference between this body and the ignored 'advisory' commissions many states had in 2010 was that it is inscribed in law. The problem is that the law expected the NY Senate to remain a battleground, not a chamber where democrats are 2-3 seats away from a supermajority. Those 2-3 seats which could easily fall in 11 months, a GOP retirement has already given team blue one favored pickup.

FWIW, NY politics tends to be rather corrupt with a lot of deal-making and tit-for-tat between the parties--the IDC is one of many manifestations of this phenomenon. A deep south style bargain between some Democrats and Republicans on redistricting doesn't seem impossible to me, though I don't know politics up there well enough to say for sure.

[Sol]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

My assumption was always that sheer geography ensured NY-22 would get cut, its the only district to border both PA and Lake Ontario and its next to a bunch of seats that also have an expand.

[Nyvin]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

My assumption was always that sheer geography ensured NY-23 would get cut, its the only district to border both PA and Lake Ontario and its next to a bunch of seats that also have an expand.

NY-23's land area will have a district one way or another.   NY-22 is the one that's easiest to divide up between eastern upstate and western upstate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

My assumption was always that sheer geography ensured NY-23 would get cut, its the only district to border both PA and Lake Ontario and its next to a bunch of seats that also have an expand.

NY-23's land area will have a district one way or another.   NY-22 is the one that's easiest to divide up between eastern upstate and western upstate.

I agree. My memory at that moment had failed me and caused me to misnumber the district in question.

[Oryxslayer]

Something which will also matter is the new redistricting process.

This article summarizes the process:

In 2021, that commission will be created for the first time, composed of ten members -- two each appointed by the Assembly Speaker, Senate majority leader, and minority leaders in both houses; and two chosen by a majority of those eight appointed members...The law also protects against the party in power from exploiting its position. If the leaders of the two legislative chambers represent different parties, the newly drawn maps recommended by the commission must be approved by a majority vote of each house. But, if both chambers are controlled by the same party, approval would require a two-thirds majority vote.  

*

So basically if I'm understanding this correctly it'll be an Arizona-style bipartisan process with independent commissioners as tiebreakers. However, the legislature can apparently draw their own maps after voting down a few of the commission's maps--but I think this commission will probably have a bigger role than folks will think since it was passed with the agreement of leadership in both parties. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a neat bipartisan gerrymander with each party losing a seat.



*Let me know if quoting this article is a copyright issue and I'll take it down.

I have mentioned in other threads that this commission is rather toothless since the legislature can get their own maps going not that long into the process. The only real difference between this body and the ignored 'advisory' commissions many states had in 2010 was that it is inscribed in law. The problem is that the law expected the NY Senate to remain a battleground, not a chamber where democrats are 2-3 seats away from a supermajority. Those 2-3 seats which could easily fall in 11 months, a GOP retirement has already given team blue one favored pickup.

FWIW, NY politics tends to be rather corrupt with a lot of deal-making and tit-for-tat between the parties--the IDC is one of many manifestations of this phenomenon. A deep south style bargain between some Democrats and Republicans on redistricting doesn't seem impossible to me, though I don't know politics up there well enough to say for sure.

Or more likely, between some Republicans and the Democrats. They hold nearly all the power, in that scenario you attract allies of convenience rather than lose yours. It's why Felder is a Dem again, and why the IDC got obliterated in 2018.

[Sol]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

My assumption was always that sheer geography ensured NY-23 would get cut, its the only district to border both PA and Lake Ontario and its next to a bunch of seats that also have an expand.

NY-23 will probably be divided up--but it doesn't mean that Brindisi or his successor will lose.

[Nyvin]

How would this be for an Upstate map?   Only 4 safe R districts.  Uses 2016 pop estimates.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf42bda7-4cd7-4a7a-a7b4-c8eac662ffd2



2012-2016 PVI's:

NY16- D+14.13 (south westchester)
NY17- R+0.51 (Rockland/Putman/Orange)
NY18- D+2.69 (Ulster/Dutchess)
NY19- R+7.65 (Leftovers...?)
NY20- D+6.7 (Albany)
NY21- R+4.17 (Adirondacks)
NY22- R+6.62 (Binghamton/Elmira)
NY23- D+6.8 (Syracuse/Ithaca)
NY24- D+6.85 (Rochester)
NY25- D+8.67 (Buffalo
NY26- R+11.8 (Buffalo/Rochester exurbs, rurals)

Since most of upstate north of Rockland/Westchester swung to Trump, it'd be expected most of the districts are a little more Republican than the PVI lets on.  

The main thing seems to be that uniting Tompkins with Syracuse is crucial.  NY-17 and NY-18 (southeast) would both be competitive, but probably winnable for Democrats.

[Sol]

How would this be for an Upstate map?   Only 4 safe R districts.  Uses 2016 pop estimates.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf42bda7-4cd7-4a7a-a7b4-c8eac662ffd2



2012-2016 PVI's:

NY16- D+14.13
NY17- R+0.51
NY18- D+2.69
NY19- R+7.65
NY20- D+6.7
NY21- R+4.17
NY22- R+6.62
NY23- D+6.8
NY24- D+6.85
NY25- D+8.67
NY26- R+11.8

Since most of upstate north of Rockland/Westchester swung to Trump, it'd be expected most of the districts are a little more Republican than the PVI lets on. 

The main thing seems to be that uniting Tompkins with Syracuse is crucial.  NY-17 and NY-18 (southeast) would both be competitive, but probably winnable for Democrats.

Perhaps the 19th, 20th, and 21st could be rotated counterclockwise (i.e. Plattsburgh to the 20th) to give Delgado a better chance? It looks like a very clean but realistic map though!

[Tintrlvr]

How would this be for an Upstate map?   Only 4 safe R districts.  Uses 2016 pop estimates.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf42bda7-4cd7-4a7a-a7b4-c8eac662ffd2



2012-2016 PVI's:

NY16- D+14.13
NY17- R+0.51
NY18- D+2.69
NY19- R+7.65
NY20- D+6.7
NY21- R+4.17
NY22- R+6.62
NY23- D+6.8
NY24- D+6.85
NY25- D+8.67
NY26- R+11.8

Since most of upstate north of Rockland/Westchester swung to Trump, it'd be expected most of the districts are a little more Republican than the PVI lets on.  

The main thing seems to be that uniting Tompkins with Syracuse is crucial.  NY-17 and NY-18 (southeast) would both be competitive, but probably winnable for Democrats.

Perhaps the 19th, 20th, and 21st could be rotated counterclockwise (i.e. Plattsburgh to the 20th) to give Delgado a better chance? It looks like a very clean but realistic map though!

Would be crazy to reach Delgado's district up to Plattsburgh. As drawn, this is quite favorable to him, although I'd do the cut into Greene County instead of Sullivan, which makes sense with the Hudson Valley orientation and is about partisan neutral (southeastern Greene County is not much different, partisan-wise, from southeastern Sullivan).

Brindisi would presumably move to Syracuse and run against Katko, which should be an easy win for him on this map. I also might put Cortland County instead of Oswego County into the Syracuse district, which is more cohesive on a map (and also moves the Syracuse district a bit further towards the Democrats - needed since that's the one Democratic seat with a Republican incumbent). You might be able to put Seneca County in there, too, which would allow you to cut down on the splitting of Broome County.

Edit: Here's my version, basically the same idea but with a few tweaks around the edges that I think make it neater. https://davesredistricting.org/join/09da5089-c844-484b-ab22-b3fec08616fe

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

My assumption was always that sheer geography ensured NY-23 would get cut, its the only district to border both PA and Lake Ontario and its next to a bunch of seats that also have an expand.

NY-23 will probably be divided up--but it doesn't mean that Brindisi or his successor will lose.

I easily see Stefanik being at potentially grave risk of losing to Brindisi in a Trump midterm if Oneida County is thrown into her district. Stefanik's got considerable retail politics skills but so does Brindisi. And its not like Oneida County is tiny.

[Sol]

Would be crazy to reach Delgado's district up to Plattsburgh.

I was actually referring to Tonko's district going up to Plattsburgh, not Delgado's. Delgado would take a chomp out of more D-leaning Albany area communities. Stefanik would take in more conservative areas in Delgado's (and Brindisi's) districts.

It is a bit of an outlandish idea though -- I might try and draw it to see if it'd work.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What if Ds draw a seat that has just Albany County then extends west into firmly GOP territory?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/060abf38-58dd-470e-957a-8a2a7c3e6c38
something like this